you know you know i talked to one of the headlines of investors are worried about some of the economic data coming out in perth in particular us inflation data is coming out on wednesday yes and it's almost like there's a hair trigger that mentality that anything you worry could indicate more volatile markets is that just how it is in times like this i mean did you for example just expect a correction like many people did in markets oh yeah the minute that they announce the package i think what it is is that albeit that the other spending package it's not what republicans normally stand for republicans normally have a fiscally conservative fiscal restraint i think they're obviously so many concessions were made to get this passed that you have a greater spend than anybody really was anticipating that's really what's at issue here everything that happened on the fifth was right after that announcement so you know and you know generally people were it almost became embarrassing to be hillary clinton saying there's a correction coming there's a correction coming but after i said it for four or

economic data has trumped economic data out of new zealand.ore importantly, we had quite a big miss in new zealand inflation a few weeks back. technically, it feels that the aussie dollar has been underperforming versus the kiwi. technicals, but where the trend and economic data is going in the central banks as well. david: in terms of the third one, long treasury, i would imagine that comes down to this widening spread. do we get a reversal of flow only hit 3% in the tenure, and the third one starts to make a lot of money? kay: that is the right-thinking. talked about one treasury close to two years now. obviously, a crowded trade and everyone is in the same room. we were lonely for a wild. this is something where you may be shorting a potential pullback for u.s. treasury, especially once week get tours 3%. there -- towards 3%. there is a lag affect in eurozone yields. haslinda: but they are still playing catch-up? kay: it is. i have spoken to the commodity strategist, like, what is going on, why the underperformance? sure, especially with si

we seem to have another day today that's a little bit up but are we worried about some of this economic data coming out and all of a sudden that's going to be a tipping point we're going to see some more of vexing volatility. i don't think the volatility is over i think that we held today we held yesterday we rallied in the close on friday but to me it really is a week called we are not that far off the highs so overall for a long term investor the market's a looks very bullish but your fear trader or if you're a swing trader i would in the have bought right back into this market on friday or monday or today because we still possibly could go down and retest the lows from friday and i will tell you if we did do we could break that so i don't know i would say to be safe wait until we rally over that big selloff day that was one week ago today when the market really tanked once we get over the high of that day which in the spiders is around two seventy five ish that i would still a lot better about saying go ahead get in long swing traders day traders the market's going to move up and make ano

i think you will see economic data roll over and you will see the curb continue to fly.e expectlook at what the fed to do, hiking through times possibly or four times you be talking about real policy rates that are on the verge of tight territory already and at that stage you would expect the yield curve is deftly completely flat. we are definitely on board with the trade, with that is what we are recommending to investors today. >> the treasury secretary steve mnuchin says we can get wage growth without inflation concerns. walk me through the ecological logic if you can. is this something we can get russian mark >> the only way he will get that is to get a surge in productivity. we have seen that productivity has been slowing down for years. it is not just a u.s. phenomenon. the idea that we will get fiscal stimulus and it will spur andation and investment productivity growth is wishful thinking probably. >> i agree with that. if you think about how the fed is characterizing their vision in the economy, they link it to things like productivity and the demand for safe ha

of is the high-end, zero is easy at three is tied, so if they get to three i think you will see economic dataoll over and the curve to flatten and get inverted if they go that high. >> i absolutely agree, and if you look at what we expect a fed to do this year, hiking three times or four times, you're talking about real policy rates that are on the verge of type territory already. at this stage you expect the inverted,e not to be but flat, but we are to philly on board with the flattening we are fully on board with the flattening trade. jonathan: what we do the economic logic, is it something we can get? >> the only way you can get that is if you get a surge in productivity growth, and we haven't seen opportunity slowing down for years. globally. a u.s.ot just phenomenon, it is global, so the fact that we get fiscal stimulus and spur inflation, investment and productivity growth -- it is visual thinking -- it is wishful thinking, probably. the fed and visions the economy, and they lead and the demand for safe haven assets and we know one thing is for sure that demand for safe haven -- higheru

we will get a fresh round of economic data including numbers on a u.s.mario draghi and theresa may will both be speaking. to wrap things up, matt, kathy and mike. matt, what are we looking for from chairman powell? >> i was reading the transcript. there were enough interesting speeches from powell. i think he will have his eye on financial stability more so than we have seen for other chair people. with that in mind, even though we don't see risks to financial stability today, if financial conditions can ease as they are trying to tighten monetary policy, that will change. that will encourage the fed to a accelerate the pace of rate hikes. that is something that will continue. jonathan: i have a question from a viewer. will we finished near 2%? >> they were very clear. they will be substantially lower than they are today. as the market is forward-looking and by the time we get to the end of this year, we think investors won't have as bright and outlook as they do today. people are very bullish on everything today except treasuries. we think that will be

i think if they get the three, you will see economic data start to roll over and you will see the curve continue to flatten and get inverted if they go that high. i absolutely agree with that. if you look at what we expect the fed to do this year, hiking three or four times, you will be talking about real policy rates on the verge of tight territory already. at that stage, you would expect the yield curve to be completely flat. we are on board with the flattening trade some of that is what we are recommending to investors today. jonathan: where the you tried to understand what the fed thought about inflation -- the treasury secretary steve mnuchin says we can get wage growth without inflation concerns. walk me through the ecological -- economic logic if you can and is it something we can get? kathy: i would say the only way you can get that is to get a huge surge in productivity growth. we have not seen that. productivity has been slowing down for years. it is not just a u.s. phenomenon. it is global, so the idea that we will get fiscal stimulus and it will spur inflation and investment

we have global economic data coming up all week, including u.s. retail sales and global gdp reports, plus a reminder there will be chinese new year celebrations later in the week that will affect the asian market schedule as well. still with me, greg peters from p jim fixed income, bonnie wongtrakool of western asset management, greg peters of pgim and rob waldner of invesco. robert, some big data points on the reflation front, but i am thinking of the asymmetric risk. friday wasn't primed for an inflation surprise. is this a market that is better primed for inflation surprise? if we do get one next week? robert: i think it has started. this has been a multiyear process of getting used to the fact that there was little inflation risk. now, we are going through a period of getting that back on the radar screen. i think it is too early to say we are priced for an inflation surprise. we think the risk of a near-term cpi bump up is fairly low. if you look at the details of cpi, it's hard to see where that will come from. so, it is probably less about

in ayfact, t i think you had a little more good economic data t reported sort of services index for the broad economy was higher than expected. so i do think it's been much more about how far the stock market had climbed in a very ort period of time, how stretched valuations have become and also how setched investor sentiment had come toward optimism. a lot of those require a sh eout. and just today, i don't mean the general move from the highs a week or so ago, but justay t action when you really accelerated the selling in the middle of the afternoon and then you yo-yoed around a down 1,600-point dow and back up and the rest of it, that really was a lot of trading mechanics based on seemingly some funds who were forced to do some selling, may, perhaps, spill over into the next day or so. >> so matt, if you'ren intermediate-term investor or even maybe a longer-term s investor, y take a look at the market and make some choices now. tell me more about that. >> well, going back to whke mike just tabout in terms of how -- you know, we just saw indiooriminate selling that place and the marke

we've had some good economic data come in. which has the counter intuitive effect of making people worry that they'll be a correction and the fed is going to slam on the brakes and say we're maybe overheating and do something about it. so it is partly that. and partly that we have a new fed chair. and we don't know that much about him and how he will react to economic data. this is jay powell as you talked about. and so we don't exactly know how he'll react. how much he'll feel the need to slam on the brakes and -- and respond to the numbers that we've seen recently. and then the third thing so keep in mind is that we have had a huge amount of fiscal stimulus happening in the form of the tax cut that passed in december and we may have more fiscal stimulus down the pike in the form of an infrastructure package, building a wall, building up military and our nuclear arsenal and the fed may see the roll as offsetting the fact that we have this huge fiscal expansion happening so maybe the fed needs to say, you know what, we're goin

people don't know what to make of economic data now, because they're convinced that it's so strong >> i thought you were going to answer my question with saying that stocks are going to go higher >> if the -- no. i think the next move is lower on lower long rates, and a defensive move and i think that's what you want to buy. >> you honestly think that in the next jobs report, if -- you know, aleve some of the fears about inflation that stocks aren't going to go up? you think they're going to go down on that >> if you gave me the number, judge, no clue i have no idea which way here's what i know again -- again, i think that you can peak out the long rates here you can have a strong employment number that can lift expectations for short rates long rates come down, because -- what happens when the fed raises rates aggressively and more aggressively it's a disinflationary move meant to slow down activity. >> i can't believe they're going to do that. >> tony, can i just interrupt for a second you're telling us you think there is an impending retest of the lows, for whatever reason. >> corr

joe: i want to ask you something about -- important, economic data and the market. there is an idea that the economy can overheat and how an overheating economy may be bad if it is through the federal reserve channel or margin channel. somehow good news can be bad news, are you essentially saying that? >> people are not doing the research, we published a piece talking about how stocks will and should go up. slowest, most the boring economic recovery in the history of recoveries since 2008 and 2009. people don't get it at interest rates can go up -- the mid-90's was a great time to be an american when stocks went up, ponce went up, dollars lineup. institutional investors were not around in the 90's and managing money, and the once water around are at bigger firms, or running their own shop on their own. we have a lack of perspective here. bottom line is that earnings are good and it should be good for the stock market. ofhave been so disposed venues -- but we should know that the news is really good news. julia: talk to me if this is a good thing, the fundamental of

it's more about where we are when it comes to the volatility of economic data, which really is the big question of what the happen this year. nejra: some people saying that inflation risk is one of the well flagged risks that we have at the moment. yeah, i wasnnie: just wondering that if there was a threat that the fed moves in march, that it won't satisfy the market at this point. if inflation data continues to come in hotter than expected. sid: yeah, i mean, i think markets can be relatively sanguine about interest-rate move timing. but if we get markets questions on the terminal interest rate, the final interest rate past the supply and demand balance in the economy, once markets really question how many interest-rate increases there will be in this business cycle, rather than the timing, we can think that risk assets will be tested because monetary policy will be much more hawkish than expected. have definitely seen markets capitulate, with respect to the market rate interest in the u.s.. hikesespect to cumulative over the business cycle, markets will be relatively sanguine. vonnie

economic data the previous week as part of the reason for the sharp drop closing what's happened in the last couple of days it's been a little bit of a hangover from those friday's tyros numbers and in particular they shot royce white stripes and that i think has really crystallized concerns that the federal reserve will embark on a much faster tightening cycle and that's push for deals up but it's also put pressure on the u.s. stock markets and not only u.s. markets the panic spread to asia where investors went on a selling spree on tuesday tokyo's nikkei index fell by nearly six percent. this is a normal it's probably because of the plunge in the u.s. i thought the economy was in good shape with share prices going up but a sudden drop like this makes the future outlook unclear the more the stock prices went up too far without reason it's time to hold tight and there were big losses in europe too although shares recovered slightly on wednesday only to slide again later in the week analysts tried to look on the bright side. because in through we went up too fast twenty one percent last

economic data the previous week tightening cycle in the us pushed bond deals up but it's also put pressure on the u.s. stock markets and not only u.s. markets the panic spread to asia where investors went on a selling spree on tuesday tokyo's nikkei index fell by nearly six percent. this isn't normal it's probably because of the plunge in the us i thought the economy was in good shape with share prices going up but a sudden drop like this makes the future outlook unclear the more the stock prices went up too far without reason it's time to hold tight and. there were big losses in europe too although shares recovered slightly on wednesday only to slide again later in the week analysts tried to look on the bright side. because in through we went up too fast twenty one percent last year in the u.s. alone music no one knew when a correction would come but one thing is clear the fundamentals are stable so we don't have to fear that it's going to keep going down versus those divide. and get the weak final tally hunkers hang seng lost more than nine percent somewhat less than japan's nikkei and t

frankfurt and i hope daniel can hear me already there is investors there also have to digest french economic data i believe inflation in the euro zone slow to one point two percent in february i think that won't please the european central bank. no it's not going to please the e.c.b. it also won't make mario draghi the head of the e.c.b. very happy at all his goal is to keep the inflation rate at a level of two percent for the eurozone next week there's going to be a meeting off the e.c.b. here taking place in frankfurt just a few blocks from where we are and we can be very sure that not too many changes after monetary policy of the e.c.b. will be announced there has been this rumor and many have asked for that for a long time that we might see by the end of two thousand and eighteen accomplis stop off the bond purchasing program this was already had reduced in the last last month from sixty billion euros a month to only thirty billion euros a month but most likely regarding interest rates we're not going to hear anything new here at all ok i believe the markets aren't to happy today either and t

of the frankfurt stock exchange for us i hope you've got good nerves this week will be full of economic data thank you. opec says global demand for oil will grow faster than expected this year the organization of the petroleum exporting countries expects crude sales to surge by over one and a half million barrels a day that's up sixty thousand barrels on its previous monthly market report and expanding global economy is the main driver for the additional demand as steady vehicle sales in the u.s. china and india oil prices inched up on monday monday's cheerful market mood also helped lift oil a relief for a country so dependent on the black sticky stuff iraq after a war with islamic states the nation is trying to rebuild itself with help from abroad aid groups pledging three hundred thirty million dollars on the first day of an international reconstruction conference in kuwait iraq needs a lot more especially considering what some officials are saying they reckon the u.s. is refusing to give any more one observer says it may be donor fatigue but no one can say there isn't more money there's

finished modestly higher. 0ffbeat economic —— up peak —— upbeat economic —— up peak —— upbeat economic datacy. have a great birthday, goodbye for now. britain's theresa may is in china to forge new partnerships ahead of britain's exit from the european union. the fbi says it has "grave concerns" about a report thought to outline alleged surveillance of the trump presidential campaign team. a public inquiry into the deaths of five children at hospitals in northern ireland between 1996 and 2003, has found that four of them were avoidable. chris page reports. claire roberts was nine when she died 22 years ago. her family were told at the time her death was caused by a virus. since then claire's parents, jennifer and alan, have been trying to find out what really happened. the grief is still overwhelming. even standing at the sink looking out at the back garden come summertime, you can still see her on her slide and her swing. she was at school on the monday and we essentially had lost claire by the tuesday evening, the early hours of wednesday morning. so they have robbed me of everything. the

treasuries, mixed economic data from the u.k.d best it is of volatility from the recent corrections. let us revisit some the most interesting conversations about adamarkets starting with scheetz who said a february selloff in stocks was "the appetizer, and not the main course." possible to be as precise as you would like to be around these things but when i look at the forecast, you really overlapping themes that crossover in the second quarter. you will have inflation picking up, not just in the u.s. but in the eurozone and in japan. at the thing time, i think that we think a number of activity indicators including global economic indices are going to be moderating. and so, it is not necessarily that it is going to be a recession or a sharp slowdown but that the rising inflation numbers will seem potentially more worrying when the economic data is not as strong as it has been. >> that is a fair point. they look at the 10 year and they say 3% or 3.5%. i have a chart here on the bloomberg. 82 basisght around points. what do you th

we are a little bit thin in terms of economic data. much will the bond auctions actually steer us in what yields will do next. -- it istely is about about supply and demand. most of the correction that we have seen so far is due to the pricing and inflation reliving high in the u.s. down the road high in theing u.s. down the road. ultimately i think i will be really watching what is going to happen with the term premium as a longer-term driver of treasury yields. my expectation is that normalization of those term premiums should drive treasury yields higher. francine: i want to talk about financial conditions. within your reporting and your editorial duties, what will you look out for in the next 10 days? >> there is a great story on the bloomberg looking at the fed minutes. ther" has appeared in the fed minutes. people whot the watch the federal reserve wondering what this means. does it mean that the fed thinks that the neutral rate gap between boom and bust interest-rate and whether that has moved tire? there is going to be a lot of

the bots our financial correspondent in frankfurt well i can see the european reaction to that economic data right behind you. that's right and it's an astonishing reaction you just said that the retail sales in the united states being a bit slower mitigated the effect of the inflation but you know everybody was staring so decidedly and waiting so intensely and anxiously for the inflation figure when i saw that two point one percent figure i thought that's going to make the dax tank and the restaurants and wall street and the euro and that's what happened initially but it's amazing it's been a long time since i've seen a recovery like this basically the docs being sent to jail not passing go not collecting two hundred dollars and immediately the get out of jail free card again . some people you know what do you make of this recovery inflation and rate fears of the market you know but there's scrambling themselves for a really plausible explanation but this does show is the market still really nervous but tell me why the about the rate hikes when there are merits to rate hikes if inflation is

we begin with rigging economic data following some other economic data that we got this morning, pending home sales. >> they are coming in worse than estimated, with a trump month over month. and economists were looking for a gain, falling on the heels of lower than estimated new homes -- new home number. looks like a couple of chinks in the armor of the home market with this number. we the moment, looks like have been seeing the financials and technology shares lead gains. financials were the strongest among the major groups in the s&p 500 yesterday, or at least group,st poor of this yesterday. on a monthly basis we wanted to take a look at the s&p 500. it has been a tumultuous month. taking a look at the bloomberg, , youre got the decline first down months since last march, the worst monthly decline since january of 2016. taking a look at the total basis, including dividends, it's been 15 consecutive months of returning gains. this will be a breaking of that streak. in terms of individual stocks we are watching, there's a lot of retail news continuing. lows, earnings-per-share missing

economic data, that's weekly jobless claims are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern.n europe, we have the bank of england meeting, a trio of fed officials are speaking today philadelphia fed president patrick harker, minneapolis fed president neil kael kashkari an esther george. we heard from robert kaplan this morning speaking in frankfurt he said the central bank should continue removing accommodation by added the fed should be highly vigilant about market volatility and whether it has effect on the real economy cvs health, t mobile, kellogg, twitter, viacom and yum brands reporting before the open bell aig, expedia, news corp. are out after the close. >>> double dose of deal news fox talking disney and sky in its latest earnings report details coming up. >>> and another check on futures. the dow is lower by 126 points in the premarket "worldwide exchange" will be right back what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to

we have also seen economic data come out here in the us, which suggests that wage growth is faster thans we will look at all of this to make our decisions. the australian government is announcing a compulsory recall of more than 2 million vehicles fitted with the defective takata airbags. it is one of the country‘s biggest consumer recalls and it comes after at least 20 deaths in —— and 200 injuries reported worldwide. paul griffiths told me earlier that the federal government is taking this recall very seriously. there has been concern about these airbags for a decade now globally, it has been a huge issue in the us, and here in australia there was already a volu nta ry australia there was already a voluntary recall, but the government announced today it is simply not happy, that has not been effective enough. so what is being up demanded thatis enough. so what is being up demanded that is a compulsory recall that goes across a huge range of vehicles, toyota, ford, picked popular brands here in australia, volkswagen and bmw, they will have to bear the cost of this new recall thatis to

oil prices down a percent last week lower this week, 65.3. >>> it's lighter week economic data on thel street agenda, today, we'll get data ism services index tomorrow look for trade deficit and consumer credit. thursday, it's jobless claims and wholesale claims and 80 companies in the s&p 500 will be reporting results of this week. there's just one dow component, a big one, disney. numbers from bristol-myers, gm, chipotle, tesla, twitter and young brands >>> and jerome powell will be sworn in today as the new fed chair succeeding janet yellen. on friday, yellen said solid economic growth means the fed will likely continue to hike rates gradually. she also said that stock prices are elevated but stopped short of saying the market is in a bubble >> with the stock market the issue with priced earnings which is a measure of valuation is near the high end of its historical range and if we look at, for example, commercial real estate and other assets, we're seeing high valuations >> yellen stepped down as fed chief on saturday after one term president trump opted to replace her with powell

we have global economic data coming up all week, including u.s. and retail sales and global gdp. there will be chinese new year celebrations later in the week that will affect the asian market schedule as well. we have bonnie wongtrakool of western asset management, greg peters of pgim and rob waldner of invesco. i'm thinking of the asymmetric risk. friday wasn't primed for an inflation surprised. is this a market that is better primed for inflation surprise? rob: i think it has started. this has been a multiyear process of getting used to the fact that there was little inflation risk. now, we are going through a period of getting that back on the radar screen. we don't -- we think the risk of a near-term cpi pump up -- bump up is fairly low. it's hard to see where that will come from. it's less about the cbi print as cpi print -- it is less about the cpi print itself. we've started pricing this in. greg: i think the data is ultimately going to calm down the market. if the data comes out in line still at or below that 2% level, that will settle do

be very interesting to see how we start the beginning of the month, particularly with some key economic dataoming out early tomorrow morning. personal income and spending and personal consumption and expenditure index, clearly the market is focused on inflation a little bit the last six to eight weeks. and those numbers will give us a good read on that. melissa: what does it tell you though? that investors wanted to close the month by, you know, taking whatever profits they could? taking money off the table, by sell what does it tell you going forward? >> i think volatility will be part of the new normal. the market was in very, very low volatility mode for the better part of a decade. you know, rates are up. i think market going to have to get used to rates going higher, hopefully gradually. volatility being a lot higher after being very, very low for most of the last 10 years. melissa: so but that is a real money-maker for a lot of people, the idea that volatility is back. >> sure. melissa: it is that movement where tons of people make money. >> sure. melissa: so it is interesting you see

treasuries, mixed economic data from the u.k. the vestiges of volatility from the recent correction in global equities. let's revisit some of the most interesting conversations about the markets, starting with morgan stanley chief asset strategist andrew sheets, who said a february selloff in stocks was "the appetizer, and not the main course." andrew: it is never possible to be as precise as you would like to be around these things, but when i look at our economists'forecasts, you really do have two overlapping themes that crossover in the second quarter. you will have inflation picking up, not just in the u.s. but in the eurozone and in japan. at the same time, i think that we see a number of activity indicators, like global economic surprise indices, which are fundamentally mean reverting series, are going to be moderating. and so, it is not necessarily that it is going to be a recession or a sharp slowdown, but that these rising inflation numbers will seem potentially more worrying when the economic data is not as strong as i

wall street specialists are saying the fundamentals remain strong and we will see that with the economic dataout. the override investors have been through is real and the impact is being felt. haidi: a big week i had on the data docket. we have the 2019 budget. and also retail sales, inflation numbers, what are we going to start with? su: the multi-trillion dollar budget is a huge focus for the pentagon. infrastructure spending and as well.spending let's go into the bloomberg one more time. the focus is going to be the cpi data and retail sales. what this chart is the cpi, excluding food and energy. will be this, because it will be a sign of inflation. we already got the warning flag from the jobs data over a week ago. there is -- our views the cpi is going to tick and retail sales databe robust, and housing will be pretty significant in terms of shelving a strong underlying strength. earnings, the parade continues with all kinds of companies, coca-cola, pepsi global be there, as well as power companies like sun power and the cisco. willer round of companies include a round of aircraft manufa

our analysis of the economic data is correct but the data are so strong that markets are worrying about fed policy. >> translation? >> kevin is a great guy and what he's saying is that, look, the economy is growing strongly, unemployment is falling, wage and prices are starting to develop. interest rates are going to rise. the one thing he didn't say, which is very important and goes to the tax cuts, those tax cuts are financed by bigger deficits. the treasury has to go out and issue lots of bonds to pay for this and that drives up interest rates as well and that's going to take away from any benefit of the tax cuts. in fact, in most analysis the higher interest rates wash out the benefit from lower marginal rates on businesses so net-net you probably don't go anywhere. so that was half an answer, really. >> fair enough. the other part that was interesting is it's not like there's a piece of bad news driving this. if you put in the perspective, there's been good news. strong numbers in the economy. 200,000 jobs added in january. unemployment rate 4.1%, hourly wages up over last year, up

with job postings and why that would be the case but that is not consistent at all with other economic data that we have about the labor market. adp which is a payroll processor, a human resource company that processes payrolls. we get data on 23 million workers across the country every month. and getook at that eta lots of information about what's going on in the labor market including wages. wage growth has picked up substantially, consistent with the idea that business cannot find workers. it's particularly in i.t. the wage growth in the i.t. ,ector is stronger, i think than any other sector in the economy at this point of professional services. so, a a little bit less lot of different occupations and back sector. i.t. is quite strong so another piece of evidence is i.t. companies try to bring in skilled workers from overseas on different types of visas. when times are tough, they don't apply asthma because they can find american workers. the h-1b visa program is oversubscribed right now. the job market is very tight particularly in i.t. i am very surprised and it's not at all consistent

analysis of the economic data is really correct. the data is so strong that clearly markets are starting to worry about fed policy. growth has headed back towards normal. normal involves a lot of other things too. i think what we're seeing is interest rates seem to be moving back to normal as well. >> okay. then if hassette is right and it was good news that set this off but fear of missing out is what revved up the markets so high, what should people be focused on today? brendan greely? >> they should be focused on actually what hassette says. in the midst of all the noise in the markets, we got really good data from purchasing managerings. basically what this says is all over the world people who make real decisions in businesses are very confident they're going to have things to buy and sell very soon in the future, right. so the actual data about people who make real decisions at real companies looked really good yesterday. so i don't think he's necessarily wrong. if you're looking for the one takeaway from somebody who's not in

one economic data point, no big deal. you need a string string of economic date. but the budge deal, that's going to add anional half a point this year and another half a point next year. ove an economy that's growing above potential with an unemployment re that's headed into the threes. yeah, i think if the fed werett g down today they would be even more hawkish than what came in january. >> i'm goingo ask the great mark zandi to give me the numbers. put your disturban on, what do you see for growth, what do you see for inflation? unemployment? what are you benchmarks here? >> i think we are going to be close to 3% yet to. unemployment will decline. it's a4. by this time next year it's going to be closing in on 3. inflation is going tora acce. that means the fed has to get moving here. it's likely going to be fourth hikes an four next year. investors are adjusting to the reality. i think they have more adjusting to do. >> the n trick is merely in the current environment, mark. what the fedit does the interest rates, but what they do with the roll off of secheitie