well, it's the top economist warrants. it may have to cut its projections again as the global economy. faith is exceptional uncertainty and that the war and ukraine also coming up. we'll look at how lithuania became independent of russian gas and ask an expert if the rest of the block could follow in the baltic nations footsteps. and we take you to florida key west a tropical paradise that has had enough of cruise ship taurus himself, delaney and berlin. welcome to the show. the brutal effects of russia's invasion of ukraine are devastating the global economy. the world bank is flashing its global growth forecasts for 2022 by nearly a full percentage point. well, being chief economist, carmen reinhardt warned, the downgraded production of 3.2 percent. growth could end up being too optimistic, amid quote, exceptional uncertainty for the global economy. global finance, financial little leaders are in washington this week for joint meetings of the international monetary fund and world bank food insecurity, skyrocketing inflat

. >> and to be the most famous economists in the world. the she for the vanilla-ness of his name, but in 1776 when wealth of nations was published and his equally significant, but somewhat lesser known book theory of moral sentiments this book, which i found from this quote that you referred which i found from russ roberts refers to something that smith hit upon that i think is profoundly important about human nature. the characterization that adam smith talked about self-interest in a gordon gecko way that we all operate from self-interest meaning i'm going to get what's best for myself. is entirely ignorant? adam smith did speak to the rather obvious reality of incentives that when we go to work to pro obvious reality that when we go to work to provide for our family it sounds like a noble thing we are inevitably benefiting into those are good things in the construct of the invisible hand. but it's more complex than thatt and there are desires to be seen. i believe that smith as well as the one and enlightenment philosophers got this rig

about the pens. proposals tell us more about absolutely, economists have been telling me that their calculations, 1st of all, don't quite add up, but the measures she's praising would be counter productive for a french spending power could even lead to a so called back flight and that's stagnating economy together with a hyper inflation and that would obviously, 1st of all, his work has because that would, according to these economists lead to mass unemployment. and on the international level, economists and analysts have been underlining that most of her measures would actually go against you roof. you said earlier that marina penn is not, not openly talking about a fix it anymore, but some measures might as well lead to one. and thirdly, there's the thing. and he and france, whose calculated through all of the manifesto, was put on the table by the different candidates. and hers would really explode public spending by over 100000000000 years. and with marine, the pen coming to power here in france, that would probably undermine investors trust and would no longer allow from to ref

but economists signal roger says he cautiously optimistic the situation can improve it. the right steps are taken at the right time restructuring. sheila gas debt to proper negotiations, cutting expenditures and long term structural reforms to attract more foreign trade and investment. he says the measures are crucial to reassure the disappointed you. there is a massive q outside the passport office, a feeling constrained to get passports, all the for an embassy mandated by people wanting to migrate. this will be a tragic for sheila, if we have our youthful population not willing to be in this country and contribute to its future. the 1st time me get nothing before getting better. that's my. for now young sheila are taking to the streets as far as i can see, demanding change and hope for the future. i. and this is what many of those in the streets have to say about the crisis that's hitting the country. we are supporting on it. because it gave you the social is law. all kid filter a plot open a bit because the up the back was i'm coming here to have all the times on the

all along it's been a struggle for these economists to get the recognition they ward. the road to serfdom is really a covid story. and images happens in road to serfdom. it's a war but it could be a healthme emergency and, therefo, there's pretext for the government to expand much than just handling the proximate problem, , the enemy r the virus, and we are seeing that with covid. i think it's time we openwe to questions and we are very happy to have them to ask a day. h this is a wonderful book it's a keeper. i i alternate this way. it's a keeper. it's very good for grown-ups. it's very good for teenagers and did you say because it's broken up into little bites, one to two pages, three pages, it's fabulous for its econ or its spiritual devotional. you raiset you have your microphone here? yep. thank you, abigail. okay. raise the issue what might be called the existential trump. that's the small team on policy the whether it's world war ii pearl harbor or the argument is is that something like covid or 9/11 essentially trump's other things to the extent that those trad

and there are major economist, most notably japan and south korea. those are dependent 100 percent for the natural gas from l n g. so your is competing for that supply from other sources and it will take 4 or 5 years to get a supply response for new projects or up to meet to meet the required demand. but l n g will be one of the critical elements for diversifying the european gas supply slate. that was michael stopper from h as market. now it's a common problem for, for some of the most beautiful places in the world. everyone wants to see them, but the more people come to less attractive it is. the trend of the citizens of key west have long been familiar with. and now they've put a stop to it. palm trees on beaches. pastel colored victorians and memories of hemingway. that's what key west over run by masses of tourist spit out of giant cruise ships. big ships do tremendous damage to our ecosystem. his ships are too large for our long, narrow ship channel and they come through and they physically stir up the bottle even worse, their passengers don't

economist donation digney, roger says the government's policies did not yield the growth they hoped for. over the past few years, she lanka has borrowed heavily for investing in infrastructure development such as port roads, railways, and other types of projects. this projects have been relatively low return and has imposed in a cost on the country. big new roger asked that the band to make and russia warn you cream. how wasn't the blog, but the point is he missteps by the current government? what really pushed sheila got over the edge. he says, the biggest mistake was the far reaching that's got implemented in 2019 depriving the government budget of sizable revenue. he also points to the ill fated attempt to rapidly switch from chemical to organic fertilizers. this had a negative impact on food production. and also productivity, which fell in agriculture and is partly responsible for the present food shortages that we have. ordinarily, she london are the ones suffering now. soaring food prices and then be power goods . and i will spend queuing a few stations sometimes are dawning empty

well, being chief economist, carmen reinhardt warned that the downgraded production of 3.2 percent growth could end up being too optimistic amid quote, exceptional uncertainty for the global economy. global finance, financial leaders, leaders are in washington this week for joint meetings of the international monetary fund. and world bank food insecurity, skyrocketing inflation, and the rising risk of debt crises, and poor countries will top the agenda. now, russia's worn ukraine is the main reason for the worsening economic outlook from the world bank. it expects ukraine's economy to contract a stunning 45 percent this year. russia russia's own economy is expected to shrink 11 percent according to world bank forecast. rushes annual inflation is rising at its quickest pace in decades since the invasion of ukraine. the onslaught of western sanctions on the withdrawal of multi nationals is hurting the economy. but that doesn't appear to worry russian president vladimir putin in buncombe. oh, well yeah, we can now confidently say that the policy of sanctions towards russia has failed. the ec

but it's kind of shows you how political economists have gone. they didn't used to be, they use to be more neutral and the krugman example is sort of a good one where krugman is probably the economist who economists turn into political pundits owhich damaged the profession the most by having such biased views on everything being against the republic on every single topic that again they can't really see straight but even larry summers people argued against tax cuts even though they argued for them under obama. it's kind of a strange, it's like the rest of society that divided among economists on political grounds and that gets in the way from doing hithe science which the council of economic advisers where i was at we put up that report led by a ealarge part research and we basically just use the literature to say here's what the erliterature says will happen. it wasn't necessarily what we thought would happen but it was just completely dismissed . can you talk about how you see that from a journalistic point of view because it's been a big chang

>> he's the most famous economist in the world. adam smith would have been lost in the shuffle for his name. in 1776 he was published and is equally significant. somewhat lesser-known book this book which i found in this quote which i found from robert it's something that smith hit upon that i think is profoundly important. the characterization that adam smith talked about selfishness in the gordon gekko way that we all operate from some institute is entirely. adam smith did speak to the reality that when we go to work and provide for a family which sounds like a noble thing we are in commerce for somebody else who has benefited and those are good things in the construct. but what it says mankind is more perplexed the binat and it's the desire to be -- from aristotle and augustus aquinas a moral nature of these economic activities and they believe it's one of the great enlightenment philosophers at a time had a chance to take off so for us to take advantage of what has been created for two juicing hcharacters adam smith as gecko is

it's kind of it's kind of a strange and the rest of society gets divided among economists on political grounds and that gets away gets in the way from doing the science which ca or concept economic devices. we where i was at we put out that report led by a large part by someone chemist research. and we basically just used a literature's to say here's what the literature says will happen. it wasn't necessarily what we thought we would happen. here's to what the scientific literature says, and it was just completely dismissed. so can you talk a little bit about how you see that from a journalistic point of view because it's been a big change with trump that that occurred. well again, it's part of what i was getting at earlier when i said the journalist sort of put aside their their traditional standards when it comes to covering and administration and went into this full resistance mode and thought that their job was to you know, stand up at press briefings every day and great the president or or break the press secretary not simply cover the administration but to resist it and and you y

that's according to economist.hey expect the fed to raise rates half a percentage point next week and in june in the economist say the central bank will do a series of quarter-point increases. russian forces have pounded targets from one end of ukraine to the otherk which includesyiv as the head of the united nations was visiting. chevron posted the highest quarterly earnings in almost a decade. there is demand for energy and russia's strain supplies was led to higher prices from everything from natural gas to diesel. exxon pose a very that missed estimates and took a 3.4 william dollar charge related to its russian operations. exxon will boost his share buybacks or graham to as much is $30 billion throughout the year. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city on tv and radio, this is bloomberg surveillance. futures are softer on the s&p 500. we have a euro that stronger by a half of 1%. tom: a little bit

economist.: enjoy the weekend, we will catch up again monday morning. francine with the axa senior economist. we have an election special, it begins on the here on bloomberg tv. at 7:00 to 8:00 p.m.. that is 10:00 to buy time. -- dubai time. but out saying they are going to take a 4 billion swedish kroner hit because of russia. that translates to just under $400 million. they say they have a total asset of $9 billion exposed to russia. i could beat materialized over the according -- coming year. our 12 month target on -- you are going to see more of these european companies beginning to deliver contacts around the russian exposure. dani: i wouldn't be surprised to see more like volvo, where they're trying to emphasize the small amount of their sales, in 2021, 3 percent of net sales were to russia. let's get to work other first word news with juliette saly in singapore. juliet: eu member states have agreed to and pull shipments from russia. the u.s. and u.k. also barred most russian trucks and sh

it's interesting how economists in favoring corporate tax cuts. >> i think honest economists are going to pass on the cost to workers. it's going to be passed on in terms of pay and what workers receive and pay and benefits so to the extent you are raising taxes on corporations, your army workers. it doesn't spread evenly, particularly true with the manufacturing sector and again trump proved we could still get something out of the american p manufacturing sector a lot of people have given up on so there's no more growth coming. we'll have the manufacturing 50s and 60s and 70s but there's still something there and the tax cuts show that there is still something there. the cut individual taxes as we well, let them spend it how they want. it's not rocket science. when kennedy cut taxes in the 60s this happened. when reagan cut them in the 80s, this happened. when bush cut them in the 2000 it happened and when donald trump cut them it happened. this is not something unique to the trump administration, he's simply doing things here or did things here that have produced similar results othe

haidi: the asian economist at goldman sachs.omberg for more on the be ok -- bok decision. the bank of korea raising its key interest rates on thursday, brushing aside concerns and clearly seeing inflation risks being much more. the seven-day report repurchase rate taking into 1.5%. this is the first ever decision without a government in play -- a governor in play. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: here's a quick check of headlines. slower demand of software and i.t. services as companies exit work from home arrangements. they forecast revenue to increase up to 15%, missing average estimates of 17%. profits trailed estimates at $750 million. shares of delta rose 6% before paring gains after the airline forecasted a rebound in summer travel booking. they posted a loss of $940 million fueled by higher fuel cost and slower return of business travel. delta says it is seeing record sales heading into the spring and expect to be profitable for the remaining quarter. bloomberg is being told reliance industry is looking at a bid for a pharmacy

economists see recession risks rising. either you have consumer spending less because prices are more expensive or you have the fed overreacting. those risks continue to rise right now as we see these prices continue to rally and expectations that the fed will raise rates by 15 basis points next month have now been strengthened. haidi: and we do continue to see the supply side disruptions coming from the war in ukraine. it just not seeing any end in sight, shery. we heard vladimir putin calling these negotiations with ukraine a dead-end. we are seven weeks into the conflict and he is vowing to pursue the invasion, to keep pursuing the war. he says the seven-week offensive is going according to plan. he was speaking at a joint press conference with the belarusian president. we have had no word of progress when it comes to these video link peace talks. ukraine accused russian troops of war crimes, the killing of unarmed civilians and some of the cities in the north. and we have seen western leaders calling for international

honest economist no, are going to pass on these costs to workers. it's going to be passed on in terms of their pay, what workers receive and pay and what the receiving benefits. so to the extent your raising taxes on corporations you are harming workers, harming workers. it doesn't spread evenly across all sectors of economy.he it's particularly 20 manufacturing sector. and again trump proved we could still get something out of the american h manufacturing sector that an lot of people had given up on. so there's no more growth coming. i don't think they are all coming back. we will not have the manufacturing sector we had in the '50s andnd '60s and 70s but there there's still something there and i think those tax cuts, corporate tax cuts in particular show there still something there. they cut individual taxes as well. let people keep more of their money and spend it how they want. this is not rocket science here. when kennedy cut taxes and 60s this happen. when reagan cut them any 80s this happen. when bush cut them into 2000s it happen and when, d

economists say these are better measures.that being said, all these aspects you just mentioned make americans feel insecure about the economy. even if the fundamentals are strong. democrats only have a slim margin and they could have done this without this negative number. >> it appears the war in ukraine could spill over into neighboring moldova, the tiny eastern european nation shares a long border with ukraine. moldova includes a breakaway region controlled by separatists in battle by russia. the country is facing a dangerous moment after a string of explosions. christine report. >> preparing to work after easter break. she is the principal of this primary school, a small village on the board of the transistor region. the conflict ended with them breaking away from moldova and declaring their own independence. it is -- it has never been recognized. the were in ukraine where is her. >> when we hear the news -- the news on the radio and see the news on television, it makes us feel very stressed. i feel stressed. it is painfu

. >>> we don't need to be a government economist to know prices ten to skyrocket. especially at the grocery store and the gas station. >> the latest inflation data from those economists. it really shows prices are going up 8.5%. scott mcgrew says that's the worst in 40 years. >> the worst since 1981. 8.5% from this time last year. when you strip out gas and food though, which as you mentioned is where we see the really big price hikes, prices are up 6.5%. what economists call the core inflation. that number, 6.5%, may contain a bit of good news. it is not as big as it has been in the past which may show some cooling with inflation. keep in mind, the basket of goods that economists use sometimes include things that you wouldn't buy. sure, we all use natural gas and certainly gasoline. but some numbers like more than 35% increase in the price of a used car doesn't affect every american family. just the ones buying the car. though inflation is one of the biggest financial problems american families face. not only does it make everything more expensive, obviously. it w

brainard has been not just a good economist but she's been a persistent advocate for working families and for communities that have been left on their own for too long. she understands the role of government and the role of the federal reserve should be not always successful in getting them there. i think the new nominees will do that but putting workers at the center of our economy, putting the workers at the center of our financial regulatory system, putting workers at the center of what we do here. she led the way in modernizing and strengthening the community reinvestment act, a landmark civil rights law passed to begin undog the legacy of red lining and lending discrimination, spurring investments in neighborhoods and communities. c.r.a. has fallen short and many times partly because of the last administration and the damage it did. but the c.r.a. is -- we are breathing new life into the c.r.a. dr. brainard has done a good job at keeping it aliberia and setting the -- aliberia and setting the stage. -- alive and setting the stage. like dr. brainard, dr. cook is a leading economis

one economist told me that the u.s.ent to foreign pressures and we wouldn't expect the federal reserve to react, but they come when we already have significant domestic issues driving inflation too, a tight labor market, rising cost of housing and accelerating wage growth. these are adding pricing pressures to the services sector and other economists agree with that point and also add inflation and services is more durable, and more persistents than goods inflation, rising prices and services will force the fed, the federal reserve, to work harder and more aggressive ly, they say, this is why some believe that inflation could climb even higher from here and the central bank could reach a 2.5-3% interest rate by the end of the year, charles. charles: lidia thank you very much, so this week, there were a parade of federal reserve talking heads. each one of them trying to one- up the other doing fair share of damage to the stock market. you know what's interesting though? i'm not sure if it was the hawk ish chatter or some

who considers himself an economist in the west.h a major globalist magazine, which exists in the world and very, so to speak, reflects the opinion of the entire globalist crowd, which, as it believes , leads the whole world. and here is today's article . uh, the induction was very revealing. listen to what is written there. central banks are supposed to instill confidence in the economy to keep inflation low and stable level, but the loss of control of america's federal reserve is staggering in march. consumer prices were 8.5% higher than a year earlier, the fastest annual increase since 1981. uncle. sam went down a unique path. thanks to mr. biden's excessive fiscal stimulus of one and nine, tenths of a trillion dollars, which was passed in march 2021. this gave additional impetus to the economy and led to the fact that the total volume of stimulus measures. due to the pandemic was 25% of gdp the highest among rich countries when the white house hit the gas pedal the fed should have hit the brakes it didn't result in the worst ove

that is laurence boone, chief economist at oecd.esting to think what our guests think about monetary policy, coming up. dani: a fascinating conversation, underestimating the medium-term impact of war. thank you for bringing that. that is francine lacqua. the conversations continue. we speak with the allianz chief advisor and mohamed a el-erian. that interview is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's get back to the ambrosetti forum. francine lacqua is still there with our guest. francine: i am glad to be speaking with the one and only mohamed el-erian, economist at allianz and bloomberg columnist. first on the yield curve aversion, what is that telling us? everything has changed. mohamed: it is telling us to pay attention, that the market is increasingly concerned that the fed will make a policy mistake and the markets are saying to just pay attention. francine: do you worry that a 50 basis point hike from the fed is the wrong message? mohamed: i worry that the fed now has to choose bet

i wonder where they found these german economists no references are given in the article, we will notity of german economists just consider the consequences catastrophic up to the complete stop of german industry. given that germany is the economic engine of the european union, it is clear that the main beneficiary here is the states that literally gnawed through nord stream 2 and intend to completely capture the european lng market and this at the current exorbitant prices, nevertheless, the recession that began in europe in the current economic context automatically means global recession, which, well, can not be avoided, the united states the latest way to cut europe off from russian energy carriers was the american-lobbied rejection of the scheme proposed by russia. the so-called gas payment for rubles. despite the fact that this scheme does not affect the interests of buyers in any way and in no way, no matter how much someone would like it, does not threaten the stability of the dollar and the euro for russia, this is just an opportunity to get money for their goods, the clock i

peter praet joins us next, former chief ecb economist, for his take.is bloomberg. ♪ at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to keep you connected to what you love. and now, we're working to bring you the next generation of wifi. it's ultra-fast. faster than a gig. supersonic wifi. only from xfinity. it can power hundreds of devices with three times the bandwidth. so your growing wifi needs will be met. supersonic wifi only from us... xfinity. guy: wrapping up a short week. we have an interesting thursday to factor in. stocks are higher broadly. the action in fixed income and foreign-exchange, the euro trading 1.07 against the dollar. the countdown to the closed starts now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: counting you down to the close, this is the price action. stocks are a bid in europe. doesn't feel like a big conviction story in equities. the stories and foreign-exchange and fixed income. let's talk about the foreign-exchange

one leading economist is sounding warnings of a recession. he'll join me live to explain why. >>> welcome to "the lead." i'm jake tapper. we start with our world lead, what could be a huge military accomplishment for the ukrainian military, or, or, a false flag operation carried out by russian forces to further attempt to try to justify their brutal and unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation. this afternoon ukraine's foreign minister would not confirm nor would he deny whether ukrainian forces were behind this attack on a fuel depot in a russian town. there were no reported deaths or injuries. russia claims ukrainian helicopters carried out the strike and that more than 3.5 million gallons of fuel are on fire as a result. if true, that would be a first for this war. the first time a ukrainian air strike has hit russia in russia. but the kremlin has already told countless lies about this war including that they had no plans to invade ukraine, so that makes it even more difficult to know who was truly behind this a attack. also today, new sign

. >>> well, you don't need to be an economist to know this. prices continue to skyrocket. especially at the grocery store and gas station. prices are up 8.5%. the highest rate of inflation since 1981. >> the worst since 1981. 8.5% from last year. when you take out gas and food, prices are up 6.5%. what economists call the core inflation. that number, 6.5%, may contain a bit of good news. it's not as big as it's been in the past, which may show some cooling with inflation. keep in mind, though, the basket of goods that economists use sometimes include things that you wouldn't buy. pretty sure we all use like natural gas and certainly gasoline, but some numbers like more than 35% increase in the price of a used car tonight doesn't affect every family, just the ones buying a car. still, inflation is one of the biggest problems american families face. it weakens our savings and retirement accounts. the money we set aside is worth less now than when you put it in the bank. the best way to fight inflation is to raise interest rates. that slows the economy down. barring an emerge

. >> you got the white house making these comments with some economists say it is the biden tax planhat could thrust us into a recession but i want to add one more thing the white house after jen psaki made those comments the white house went on to tweak, get this, 24 million families of seniors making less than 100,000 per year but face it tax increases but again it going after republicans. your response? >> it is in a word nonsense, easily debunked by independent sources. claims about republicans us every one of the world those cut taxes and are looking to make those lower taxes permanent. plus claims about the republican tax hike from the past is been repeatedly debunked, even called a zombie claim about the president's repeated claims. that is easily knocked now and the truth of the matter is right now resident biden has proposed to have trillion dollars of higher taxes lands mainly on main street small business people and on those most likely to invest in america rather than overseas present has got a real i've seen inflation problem an economic problem and he's got a tax hike a

they see china's growth a bit more optimistic than ever of wall street economists. back in october they saw 4.4% -- 5.4%. we can expect a lot of that is going to go into the rebuilding of ukraine, getting them back on their feet. . it will be interesting to see the chief economist at the world bank and as we hear david speaking tomorrow and the imf, how much they think that could be needed for people in countries, especially where there are a lot up or people who cannot afford to buy food. subsidizing the and getting food to people in a food crisis, many policymakers around the world are concerned about it. shery: let us talk about china, the forecasts are getting farther and farther away. they are rolling out new measures to support the economy. >> we could see even more measures because if you look at those numbers from the first quarter, they gdp growth of 4.8 percent beating estimates, you know where he and february compensating for the drop-off that we saw in the monthly numbers in march in particular with consumer spending. unemployment was up as well. many ec

stewart robertson, senior economist, aviva investors global services joins us now.are you looking for from this march cpi print out of the u.s.? are we starting to see it top out? stewart: we will get another increase in march numbers, 8.5 on the headline number. some posted 6.5 on the corn number. -- core number. you are seeing the specific effect of higher energy prices which is exacerbated by the sad events in ukraine. you are also seeing an imbalance between demand and supply. there have been shocks to both, and now renewed shocks to the global supply complex. what is happening in shanghai is another example. this effect will not go away quickly. we will see further price rises in coming months. inflation is an annual change, so to get that rate higher, you have to have a bigger increase from a year ago. it was march and april last year that you sell these large increases. we are closer to the top. april might see it but there is still a lot of uncertainty. higher numbers in march. tom: certainly more volatility. at what point, and are you starting to see any ev

lizzy: this is above economist expectations for six months straight, and it is across the board, notfood and fuel. it is also clothing, footwear, household goods, furniture -- all the things that the poorest households need to buy. it threatens to derail the economic recovery, adds to the government political nightmare, and looking ahead, the bank of england said inflation was 8% in april before today's print. it said it could reach double digits later in the year. we will see if the energy regular raises the energy price, because that would be a big tell. tom: we talk about the different challenges central banks face, but the boe challenge is acute. lizzy: it is, the jobs data yesterday added to the ammunition for the rate rise from the bank of england and made. -- in may. after that, bloomberg economic'' base case is that the bank will hold off tightening because inflation will get so high that it will start to weigh on demand and slow down the recovery. there is the risk the labor market gets tight, inflation expectations force the bank to continue tightening in the second half of

some economists _ factories and firms. some economists say _ factories and firms.s only offer short—term solutions. it comes to spending money on luxury goods, shanghai residents go big. they make up one of the biggest consumer populations in china. that means hotels, restaurants and high—end stores are feeling the economic pinch. as the rest of the world opened its borders and eases its restrictions, does that mean beijing officials are willing to live the covid policy. and i say it is unlikely. dramatic pause and dramatic end with the music. to stay with us here. still to come: flight plan for the future. we look that could help the aviation industry ditch fossil fuels. the accident that happened here was of the sort that can, at worst, produce a meltdown. in this case, the precautions worked, but they didn't work quite well enough to prevent some old fears about the safety features of these stations from resurfacing. the republic of ireland has become the first country in the world to ban smoking in the workplace. from today, anyone lighting up in offices, busin

we will have a conversation with the chief economist at the ecb.tral bank that gets our attention is russia cut rates from 17% to 14%. michael mckee had this to say. european payments for energy making up the forex reserves, things are still bad but it's a joint loophole that keeps russia afloat. he says they can cut rates because there is no currency fight with capital control. they are holding money in the country. tom: it's dead on a ghost of yesterday about the possible trinity. whether it's yield curve control and russia controls matter. they have an immediate effect. jonathan: china is quiet over the weekend. tom: we saw that. this is the joy is to provide clarity on when you change the rules of what you do. ellen wald is a senior fellow and has a wonderful book on the fabric of the royal in saudi arabia. it's real simple, can an embargo work on oil against russia? >> i don't think in this case an embargo can work on oil against russia because are so many different points that russia is able to export oil. you've got multiple ports. you've go

economist is with us. i want to talk about the underlying theory at ucla. get the persistency of a non-measure rate rise, what are the responses within the system you are most focused on? the ones that are absolutely original given the move, which ones matter? >> thank you for having me. it's a great question. when people first saw our calls for 50 basis points, it seemed aggressive if you think about the underlying theory you were mentioning, it's a fed that has a neutral range at about 2.5%. we are living in a world of almost 9% inflation depending how you calculate it. the idea that fed officials want to get to 2%, that's not -- that's not that aggressive a call. tom: let's go to the core economic function. if we get a move, which partial differential moves the most? consumption or business events meant or will it extract -- expressed in the trade balance? >> i would watch the housing market, that's the important sector. that's where interest rates have a direct effect. if you look at the thirty-year fixed rate mortgage rate, that has moved up from aroun

and economists are saying we may have inflation for an entire decade.o you remember when treasury secretary yellen has become a partisan would say to us, it's transtower. they are no longer saying that. they basically admitted they screwed up. and a lot of people are getting hurt right now and i'm going to show over and over, if you're a middle class person, if you are part of the working poor, you are poorer today than 14 months ago when the democrats took power. you may all remember this, this is from before, before the stimulus bill from a year ago, larry summers, not a big republican -- come on, larry summers has always been one of the less favored economists except when he said don't do this. don't do this, you have pumped so much cash into the system. the left leaves in a model of consumption. the right believes in productivity, make more things, supply side. they decided to stimulate consumption and hand out lots of money and now you are poorer today than you were a year ago. and the left's own sort of biggest voice, larry summers, basically begg