relative to what many non economists conception of economists is. in other words, economic stories have an identity viable flavor and texture to them. there are certain components which i'll explain soon that make a story economic. and when it lacks those elements, the story is not usually being told by an economist. now i realize this quotation borders on power paragraph than powerpoint, but i suppose i'm not as as pithy as robert lucas. i hope i didn't dash your your dreams of knowing how to use powerpoint. no. so as i put in my book no free lunch economics is an equal opportunity offender, conservative or liberal, rich or poor, religious or skeptical. you'll find economics mounting serious challenges to many widely held and cherished beliefs. of course, i don't intend to suggest unanimity among economists any more than it exists among biologists or theologians, but still consensus on fundamental issues reflects a core economic way of seeing the world. okay, so that's what mean when i say that economic stories oftentimes reflect a large degree of

would an economist suspect. you know, all the world's most careless people must have moved to north carolina at some point. of course, that's not the story they're going to tell. economists are going to assume that people are basically people everywhere and always. we'd want to look for something unique about foregone benefits of hiring a professional attrition in north carolina. and it turns out that north carolina has the strictest occupational licensing laws for electricians in the united states. and as a result, the supply of professional electricians is relatively constricted there, which in turn raises their price relative to other states. and so just like potential air travelers, people who need work done on their wiring, they often turn to a substitute, which in this case turns out to be a youtube video. and so tragically, tragically, some people lose their lives as a result of this. and so think about how perverse this outcome is from the perspective of politicians who are supporting occupational licens

this economist said this then this economist there's there's no running plot. there's no hero. there's no pros and cons and. a running thread. so i make adam smith the founder of modern economics, kind of a in laissez faire that government but if government would just people fulfill their own self-interest that you would see an increase in prosperity more people would be involved and it would be a way to increase the standard of living. so he the hero system of natural liberty the hero. and then i judge every to what extent do you build this the house that smith built or are you tearing it down or are you trying to build another building which is what marx did and to some extent. cage so and then i have adam model left for dead then is resuscitated by the french laissez faire school by the austrian, by the british school, by the chicago school, by the austrians. and then it in typical american fashion ends with the good ending the collapse of the berlin wall. the collapse of central socialist central planning and. capitalism flourishes after that. still lots of challenges. so i

when you talk to the economists earlier on on | talk to the economists earlier on on that very point.ry point-— that very point. and people being su ueezed that very point. and people being squeezed through _ that very point. and people being squeezed through the _ that very point. and people being squeezed through the bank - that very point. and people being squeezed through the bank of. that very point. and people being - squeezed through the bank of england and those _ squeezed through the bank of england and those who got mortgages with flexible _ and those who got mortgages with flexible rates, variable rates of being _ flexible rates, variable rates of being squeezed in particular in businesses with borrowing costs being _ businesses with borrowing costs being squeezed at the same time, we are getting _ being squeezed at the same time, we are getting great node of texts coming — are getting great node of texts coming at us from tomorrow. and yes, there _ coming at us from tomorrow. and yes, there is— coming at us from tomorrow. and yes, there is a _ coming at us from tomorrow. a

is.— by how full on that article in the economist is. ., , «s ., economist is._ economist is. not hugely i think one of the things that has really - economist is. not hugely i think one of the things that has really hit - of the things that has really hit everyone is how fast it is happening is almost like the timing is been spent up incredibly. only a couple weeks ago there was an economist talk about whether liz truss was underestimated by her opponent and was a great survivor and would come in with new fresh ideas which might be the thing is the hope right now but now there is a stagnation and the striking thing about that image is she still seems to be the survivor sort of cleaning toward the type of the boat and it is kwasi kwarteng that is sinking behind her. and it�*s a sort of a vote the idea that tories of the talk about that maybe he would need to be the fall quy maybe he would need to be the fall guy if there was a change direction. and the government has been relatively clear that this is a global economic set of circumstances. brought about largely

only time will tell, but some economists think it's not going to do— some economists think it's not going rachel reeves. so it's very— only choice. —— rachel reeves. so it's very interesting to see what the papers are saying. there's been a lot of— the papers are saying. there's been a lot of reaction online at across the country _ a lot of reaction online at across the country and a lot of people that are feeling — the country and a lot of people that are feeling not great about this. natasha, — are feeling not great about this. natasha, just looking at that guardian story, james mentioned what labour mps have been saying. the guardian said tory mps were some left aghast. if there is a level of concern, among some conservative mps of. mn among some conservative mps of. i'm sure there among some conservative mp5 of. my sure there is, but quite a lot were very happy. some of them were saying it's great they finally have a conservative government back in charge. it goes to show the depth of feeling. looking back at that, a budget for the rich, this is not the measures which we are going to

lots of economists saying that's a very i economists saying that's a very tricky thing to deliver. also the wrong _ tricky thing to deliver. absolutely, it's also the wrong thing _ tricky thing to deliver. absolutely, it's also the wrong thing to - it's also the wrong thing to deliver~ _ it's also the wrong thing to deliver. tax cuts will benefit the wealthiest, and that's not how you -et wealthiest, and that's not how you get out _ wealthiest, and that's not how you get out of— wealthiest, and that's not how you get out of this cost of living crisis — get out of this cost of living crisis that's going to plunge us into a — crisis that's going to plunge us into a very— crisis that's going to plunge us into a very serious recession. it's worth— into a very serious recession. it's worth pointing out that that is also the question around who's going to pay for— the question around who's going to pay for the — the question around who's going to pay for the energy alleviation measures, which by the way are welcome, — measures, which by the way are welcome, especially including businesse

as an economist, i look at the price of resources. if something is running out, it should be getting more expensive. what julian simon found was that the price of these things wasn't going up, they were going down. how could you have something that was becoming more scarce, it was becoming cheaper. he begins to research other things, he starts looking at these non renewable metals like copper. he extended it to lumber and all of these other resources. what he observed is that as population increases, these prices, these resources actually went down. he published his findings and it created this huge contention between the two. science magazine published his article. they have this disagreement, a very public. finally, julian says hey, why don't we just bet? paul, you pick five medals, how many ever you want. i will bet you that they're gonna be cheaper in the future. his two friends picked five medals, it is chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten. they put $1,000 on the table and said, okay, let's bet for ten years and see what h

i am looking at growth forecasts of five of the biggest economists. es. some of you have observed india should be on that list as they surpassed u.k. japan is still the slowest going major economy this year. it is the white line at the bottom, it is still there despite the negative story about the u.k. and euro zone. the u.s. has gone down to 1.6%. what's interesting is the european energy crisis. eurozone is expecting 2.8% growth, this is a consensus forecast about the need year terms of june and july. same for the u.k., with quite the negativity. the redline is chinese growth, economists expect to come in at the same rate as the u.k., not the narrative you hear about but it's important to emphasize the energy crisis will have an impact. let's shift this forward to 2023. we get a complete shift in the order. the redline is china, economists have not slashed their forecasts for next year. is that waiting for the her to move -- the herd to move? maybe. the rest of the world slowing down with the exception of japan, expecting 1.6% growth higher than expecte

i am not an economist but you know how i feel about economists they are just as competent as astrologersn it comes to long term forecasting but i see on the horizon a brewing disaster here at home economically and after the midterms in the final as a result, the necessary pressure will be exerted and the like the end will be declared. we officially accept what happened, we never do it. you're just going to act like it 's over and we're gone, what have we done. when ended vietnam we left. what we did when afghanistan knows deeply, well, the principles and what is happening here, it is curious that in his language, on the basis of this knowledge, he describes what we have been saying in this studio, not only in this one, over the past months. it is this that causes some doubts that this will actually be the case, that at some point the americans, of course,

as an economist who has been _ in particular. as an economist who has been working - in particular. working in - in particular. as an economist who has been working in this| who has been working in this field is a really long time, do you believe that the current plan has any chance of working's i think the main problem with this current plan is that it lost the confidence of the market and it required additional intervention by the bank of england to calm the market, and that is not sustainable.— market, and that is not sustainable. they need to rethink what _ sustainable. they need to rethink what the - sustainable. they need to rethink what the planners| sustainable. they need to - rethink what the planners and potentially explain them better and consider something that is and consider something that is a little bit better in terms of the fundamental of the plan. in summary, is that the no? the fundamental of the plan. in | summary, is that the no? well, i find it very _ summary, is that the no? well, i find it very unlikely _ summary, is that the no? well, i find it very unlikel

steven ricchiuto, mizuho securities chief economist, joins us next.berg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the first word. the pound has fallen to its lowest level since 1985, dropping to less than $1.14. the latest hit to the currency was data showing british retail sales fell at the sharpest piece in eight months in august. since the start of the year, the pound is down 60% against the dollar. a court judge has been named special master to review the documents seized from president trump's mar-a-lago home. meanwhile, the judge in the case has refused the government request to use documents in the criminal investigation. and the german government as began a series of historic takeovers to try to avert the collapse of the energy industry. regulators have taken control of rosneft's german oil refineries. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: thanks a lot. the fed looks at another aggre

say one thing _ majority of economists say one thing and — majority of economists say one thing andmists say one thing and a few minority once i thing and a few minority once you have _ thing and a few minority once you have always _ thing and a few minority once you have always said - thing and a few minority once you have always said the i you have always said the opposite _ you have always said the opposite for— you have always said the opposite for a _ you have always said the opposite for a long - you have always said the opposite for a long time | you have always said the i opposite for a long time said another, _ opposite for a long time said another, yes— opposite for a long time said another, yes you _ opposite for a long time said another, yes you have - opposite for a long time said another, yes you have to i opposite for a long time saidj another, yes you have to say that — another, yes you have to say that but _ another, yes you have to say that but two _ another, yes you have to say that but two views _ another, yes you have to say that but two views are - another, yes

economist. now, the market is really going to get ready for a new fed speak after a week with some sobering reminders of the inflation challenges. what are you looking for heading into next week? >> i think we have a fed meeting next week, and we are focusing a lot on the size of pipes from the fed. at the next meeting. but i think what will matter more will be the indication of how they are revising the terminal rate. that is closer to three and three quarters percent in the june summary of economic projections, and it's bound to increase in this set of revisions in the forecast. and the back of those very surprises from the labor market, and inflation as you mentioned, so we are looking at the fed, and they need to provide us a little bit more guidance as to how they are going to move from this unusually large 75 basis point hike to something more incremental over the coming months. in today's price action from a market perspective, it is all about that fedex profit warning, known as a global

i'm not an economist, so i preferred to | an economist, so i preferred to leave that to them!ulation measures to be implemented for many years, who are absolutely convinced this was the way to grow the economy. there is another school of thought that says no, there's no evidence this will work. critics point to the fact that george osborne has cut corporation tax when he was chancellor. it didn't see this huge growth. i think liz truss's supporter will argue thatis liz truss's supporter will argue that is nowhere near as ambitious. we haven't really seen this for many years. jury is out, but liz truss is taking a big political gamble and we know we face probably an election within the next two years. she's got to show this is working for the voters, putting more tax in their pocket. what will help in the long term is helping grow the economy. making the whole pie bigger, as she likes to refer to it, and reversing some of those trends in wage growth and living standards that we've seen get worse. james, the guardian have come up with their her doctor already and they say it's a

the chief economist was still very cautious about his remarks this week. you should see that reflective in the market today. manus: thank you. that will go down with economics. stacking on the narrative. prepare for epic finale. those are the words of that legendary investor as smart tragedy looms over markets and how the bubble may bust. some here, equity markets arriving in numbers. some have seen a soft landing. it is a great piece. >> yes. if they are not going to go downward, the rally we have seen is a fantastic bear market rally. we indicated there is a lot more to go. a soft landing at 3400. we also have to factor in the fed stopping the hiking a month from now. dani: this is the only one place we are able to hide out for the dollar. could that have the moment continue? >> i think it does. it would benefit the risk. the second is how hawkish it is. that is what we are going to see we will be looking at the basis points. president trump coming more hawkish. it will single -- single -- signal some of those rate hikes. i think that was a sign of the d

. >> next, economists discuss inflation and the economy. we will hear from someone who served in the trump administration. on where he sees the economy heading. this is part of the cato institute's 40th monetary conference. >> welcome back. i am going to be moderating our next panel, so thank you for joining us today. i am joined by mr. king, mr. borio, who is the head of the bank for international settlements. larry summers, the former treasury secretary and professor at harvard university. and tyler goodspeed, who is a fellow at the hoover institution. and it served at the cea in the trump administration. our panel today is on what have we learned and you can submit questions for the audience that we will get to later on on cato's webpage. you can send those on facebook, you can submit them on twitter, using the #cato and we will get to those questions after presentations from all of our panelists, which we will get to right now. and we will start with mervyn king, so lord king, over to you. mr. king: i am delighted to join you at the cat

laura: rob, the interesting thing here is how american economists are saying that successive britishts have made financial mistakes, brexit followed by the unfunded tax cuts. if there any discussion thereby britain's new prime minister about how to lower the economic cost of brexit and really make it work? rob: interestingly, although economists in the united states and around the world talk about brexit as a colossal mistake, really, here in british politics, it is all most like the elephant in the room. [laughs] although that is not the right description, bause the conservatives, including liz truss, continue to talk about brexit as an opportunity. the main opposition labour party here in liverpool, they talk about it as trying to make it work, but the government's own official figures suggest that brexit, to date, has cost over $100 billion in lost growth. but, amazingly, no one wants to talk about it politically, it opened up holes and divisions come up of course many businesses think it is a mistake. the financial markets continue to think it is a mistake. and of course, many of

a, b r a d, a chief economist viet jaffar chic joins us now. welcome to the show. we've been talking about how these alleged acts of sabotage on the nord stream pipeline might impact energy supplies. but how difficult is it for you to produce economic forecasts in a rapidly changing geopolitical situation? well, it's difficult to produce forecasts at normal times. the current events make it this task even more challenging. however, with respect to this subtle touch, we have taken into account the possibility of russia completely cutting off gas supplies to europe. and under this pessimistic scenario, our already bleak full cost would be lowered by about $1.00 percentage points. so they're already difficult situation would be made even more difficult. now in terms of the economic impact of the war, where have you seen the most divergence among the b r d regents? the 1st half of this year, it surprised us because we saw a much stronger performance than we expected. as consumers were spending savings accumulated during covet times, exports worse talk. now the effects

largest economist has run is an economist with a set of for indonesia policy studies in chicago. welcome to d, w, and use asia. governments around the world, a subsidizing energy costs. indonesia is taking those subsidies away. why? ah, i mean, because it has been a huge part of indonesian national budget. we know that there has been increase in the global price in the beginning. what that intended to but because i'm assuming the saturday july, i mean the agency. so in the international, by the function for subsidy is the always the price to be like the $3.00 us dollar . but when the oil rust increased more than $100.00, already be huge, but nobody has been, i've been goldman and they don't enjoy it anymore. so that's why i think they take out the problems. so the systems become on affordable, but i find it interesting that they're only just working out now that a lot of these subsidies weren't going to the right people. a resign i every time they go about subsidies, people are the bridge. people will get the benefit from that. but we cannot the pickup is because of the assumptio

so as we just said, economists were disappointed today. what do the results teach us about the cause of inflation in the best right now? near christie? definitely a nasty surprise not just for economists, but for stock trader says, well, the dow jones industrial average drop by more than 1200 point. so almost 4 percent to the a downside to what we've basically learned is that an inflation is not just caused by m high energy prices. so you mentioned to gasoline price as they actually dropped on average since to june by about 26 percent. but you had other parts of the economy where prices kept rising, especially for food to him for am housing for health care and also as electricity billed. so went up quite a bit so, so definitely a bet. so about surprise. you are when it comes to those inflation numbers. okay, we're gonna talk to me a little bit about what the u. s. federal reserve is thinking right now. we're expecting another rate hike decision from them like next week. what? what are you thinking? yeah, of course the next week wednesday,

we speak to its chief economist and china's economic slowdown makes it hard for luxury shopper. so hold on to their designer good. creating a thriving 2nd hand market. this is the w business. i'm janelle delilah unwelcome. the european union says that the nord stream $1.00 and $2.00 gas pipelines between russia and europe were deliberately damaged in the baltic sea use of the probable act of sabotage that energy prices higher as the vulnerability of european energy supply and infrastructure was once again thrown into sharp relief. additionally, a payment dispute between ukraine's and nafta, gas and rushes gas prom could further endanger gas flows to the continent. my colleague, to ponder him, delux has been following the story. here's his assessment of what this alleged attack means for energy markets. the leaks in the north stream $1.00 and $2.00 pipelines have added more uncertainty to the european energy market. there was a bump in prices despite the fact that nordstrom one was shut down indefinitely earlier this month. now given the amount of damage the pipelines analysts ar

e b r the chief economist, be at the gym for a tick. thank you very much for your time today. thank you. now to some of the other global business stories, making news with inflation and energy prices soaring around europe. thousands in great britain are joining the no pe you kate who's meant the group is calling on its members to not pay their energy bills starting october 1st. the old that the boycott will spurn the government and energy companies to take action against ballooning prices. apple is dropping plans to increase production of its new i phones this year after an anticipated surgeon demand failed to materialize for the 2nd half of the year, 90000000 phones will be made $6000000.00 less than anticipated. apple is also moving manufacturing to india to lessen dependence on china. 16 major wall street firms have agreed to pay $1800000000.00 in fines over failures to keep electronic records of important communications. bank of america deutsche bank, goldman sachs and others use personal phones, text messages and other means to discuss financial information without adheri

the albert park is chief economist of the asian development bank. i asked him how important chinese pandemic approach remains for how its economy warfare. well, of course, we've been adjusting our projections for economic growth in china downward steadily this year, largely because of the 0 covered pump locked down policies that have really hurt consumer sentiment in china. and this is the cause of that. but this fact that growth in other parts of asia is fast and then china is also a structural change where even without the 0 covered policy, china has been growing slower year by year over the past 5 or 10 years. and that's because they're facing some headwinds to growth in terms of population aging in terms of kind of exhausting some of the easy catch up opportunities for growth. and really trying to develop a true innovation system to drive future productivity growth. most countries, as they get richer start to grow a bit slower, and i think that's what we're seeing in china. china is still very important to the region. it's still accounts for 60

s o economists are now projecting a winter recession for germany, saying the economy will likely contract in 2023. recent figures are already drawing and increasingly grim outlook. take a look. new data confirming an annual inflation rate of almost 8 percent for august . a higher price is cut into purchasing power, making it difficult for consumers to afford the same things this year that they could a year prior. now, behind that, inflation is soaring, energy cost led, in particular by natural gas. the european benchmark is now 3 quarters more expensive than it was this time last year. russia's war on ukraine and europe's response is largely responsible for that trends. another worrying figure is the growing number of insolvency in germany or the number of companies that cannot cover their own debts or liabilities. and that figure rose 6.6 percent in july from the prior month. and those are the let, the, the freshest figures that we have, i should say, a take a listen to the words of economists. katerina went aboard, i asked her what kind of winter german businesses we're about to face. i

alright, catherine with mo, senior economists at all at allianz. thank you very much. thank you. those rising energy prices are giving new impetus to the build out of renewables. hydrogen in particular, is seen as a promising alternative to fuels, provided that a network of producers, distributors, and end users develops into maturity. or that could take a while, but much of the work is already underway to day, including among some rail companies, take a look. the r b 31 regional train arrives and prim a further a small town in northern germany. the train runs on hydrogen, a fuel cell on the rooftop and an electric engine make the wheels turn. the environmentally friendly train replaces diesel commodus passengers on board. don't see any disadvantages. this train is driving very smoothly through the landscape. it diesel train on the other hand, what make noise and what stinking. a train like this would not 800 liters of diesel a day of hydro. janice better one downer, the hydrogen used comes from a nearby chemical plant and is still produced with fossil energy. so it is not c o 2

oleksandr vitau, i would like to be called simply an economist, like karl marx, well, that's normal nowsituation with the receipts to our derbudget , just now khrystyna announced information that should not have the deficit has fallen, but on the other hand, we understand that a major comprehensive reform is looming, well , it is looming, which does not mean its finalization 10-10 , so it is about taxation according to the new scheme well, accordingly, this means that for the transition period, so to speak, this hole will slightly increase how you see the situation. look at what the minister said, he counted the income from our partners, namely from the united states, the european union, the international monetary fund, not as covering the budget gap as financing the deficit, but as the income allegedly received by ukraine from taxation is laundered, in fact the situation is such that the real deficit is not uah 5 billion. unfortunately, it is approximately usd 5 billion per month, and by the end of the year it may increase, well, significantly, that is why it is really very difficult t

economist -- ww ii. economist urged price controls to prevent corporate profiteering. the inflation we are now experiencing is not due to wage gains, it is due to increases in corporate profits. it is excessive profits, not wages, that need to be controlled. thank you. >> thank you secretary reich, i appreciate you getting up so early to testify in california. next i will recognize dr. mabud. >> thank you for inviting me to testify today. my name is rakeen mabud chief economist and managing director of policy and research at the groundwork collaborative. megacorporations are choosing to keep prices skyhigh even as input costs come down. these price hikes are not falling evenly across the economy. the most marginalized groups are paying the highest prices. the inflation crisis we are facing today is due to date gates -- decades of directors asian -- deregulate station -- families have struggled to navigate a deadly pandemic and rising costs, corporations have seen the highest quarterly profit margins in over 70 years. we know why. we have corn -- gone through hundreds o

it is fair -- >> guest: he was a social theorist a historian and sociologist and an economist. he has dabbled in any number of fields and at which often got him in trouble with people who specialized who were very protective of their church sometimes by the writer called thomas sowell one of the great trespassers will among intellectuals but he was very disciplined. he was schooled with economics and economic history. >> host: a brief synopsis of his childhood. >> guest: he was born in the 1930s inne north carolina and almost the first decade of his life there. he was orphaned as a child but his father died before he was born his mother died giving birth to a younger sibling. he was taken in by a great aunt and her two adult daughters one who was buried so the four of them when thomas was nine years old moved to new york city where he was raised. as i mentioned earlier he was a high school dropout. he ended up dropping out of high school and leaving home at the age of 17.7. eventually he was led into the marines during the korean war and two years in the marines and he got his

economist who is calling for 100 basis points.re in the minority when it comes the call for 100, why do you think that is? >> looking back at the dead, it has avoided pricing the market for most of their policy decisions but over that time, we don't think the inflation situation has gotten better. there is a reasonable argument to be made that the inflation situation has gotten worse. howell was clear that if they need to do 100, they won't hesitate and we think the data supports that move so deals like a good time for the fed to surprise the market and maybe -- and may be changed strategy a little bit. 100 basis points is not bad. many market participants might welcome that. they are trying to get ahead of the inflation problem. kriti: why do you say the 100 basis point argument at a time when the cpi number came out much higher than expected? why not go 100? >> it's to remind us to never say never and there is always a possibility of an outcome that doesn't seem likely. i think the read for the guidance from the fed is clear. ei

consumers or professional economists and what that means for monetary policy? what we see here are the two oldest surveys of inflation expectations in the united states. the michigan survey [indiscernible] over the next 12 month since 1950 well joseph livingston began conducting it twice annual survey of professional economists' inflation expectations back in 1946. that survey has been continued. these surveys have had a lot of changes over time. they have done a great deal of work to ensure parallel so you have it genuine apple to apple comparison over time. what that comparison shows as well the professionals have been more accurate in recent decades, consumer inflation expectations tract inflation much more closely during the great inflation of the 1960's, 1970's, and early 1980's. we contested more formally by addressing errors on variables depending upon which survey we are looking at to see whether the forecast are systematically biased. are they on average different from zero over time? and what i find is that whereas over the entire sample period throug