economy used to be in the global economy thirty five developed economies everyone is sort of emerging market many of them are. you know struggling. for a long period of time some group they could have been for the nation for me are going to be those economies which are able to do exceed expectations and grew quicker than what people think of. the group that emerging markets in the same per capita income bracket i see and i think that's an important distinction that these are countries you think will grow relative to expectations more than investors are expecting so let's talk about a few of these success stories that you lay out in your book one region that we thought was particularly interesting was the e.u. because of course the eurozone crisis seems to be just wreaking havoc across the whole region but there are a couple of countries that you say could be set up to be the next superstars of europe you're specifically bullish on poland and the czech republic you even saber mania might fit into the category so why are these nations poised to be the next superstars. you know i think p

economy is more influenced by expectations of what happens in europe and the global economy or expectations of what could go wrong in dealing with the fiscal cliff? what is driving the confidence factor in the american economy? >> i think there are two clouds over us, one is the impact of europe on growth here and around the world and concerns about how they manage this crisis and the second is a broader concern about whether the political institutions of the country are going to find a way to move again, to govern again, become unstuck and do some things that are good for the economy in the short run and long run. i think this concern about washington being stuck got much more scary last summer when we had this crisis over the debt limit because, you know, you had a large part of one party threatening to default, first time in history, deeply irresponsible, unacceptable, it caused a huge amount of damage to confidence and one of the reasons people look at the end of this year and the expiring tax cuts and the automatic spending cuts they look at that with more concern is not because they l

economy is approaching recession. so it begs the question, how is the economy doing, how good shape or bad shape is it? >> it's struggling, there's no question, and it's lost some momentum recently. i think it's still labor be under efforts to restore balance sheets and state and local government refrenchment strength, these sorts of things, and it also has europe's troubles, some of which are washing across the atlantic, and the looming fiscal cliff which is a new risk for early 2013. but i don't think it's quite as bad as thinking that it would go back into recession. it does have some, there are some bright spots, statehousing oh -- housing showing some signs of stablizing. and some of those drugs are diminishing, there's been some repairs on the balance sheets and the like. so it's not all gloomy. i don't think the economy is in danger of lapsing back in. >> susie: the big question bernanke got a lot today on capitol hill is what can the fed do. everybody thinks the fed should do something. bernanke says that they

>> the economy. >> the economy. >> the economy and jobs. >> he had four years to straight continue out and he focuses on health care which has increasingly become arguable. >> if the economy goes south, if the economy goes south, obama is gone. >> quickly, quickly. >> the more important thing is not whether romney's attacks are working but that obama's attacks are not working because the economic conditions are overwhelming. >> we will be right back with >> predictions, pat? >> assad of syria will be gone by labor day, john. and by new years eve i think the muslim brotherhood will be the dominant force in syria. >> eleanor? >> it looks like romney will tough it out and not release any more tax returns but the pressure on him will not relent and flet work interviews, debates, it will be a prominent issue. >> rich? >> mitt romney undertakes a major offensive on the economy. including a lot of substance right after the olympics. >> mort? >> he will have a lot to work with because this economy is going to get weaker for the next two quarters at the very least and we are not out of the diff

economy. that's the forecast from tonight's market guest: nick colas, chief market strategist at convergex group. nick, worries about europe have been on the back burner. are we back to worrying about europe again? >> i'm afraid we are. we got that news out of spain this morning which just brings home the fact that the economies of southern europe, spain, italy, obviously greece, are weak, and all the efforts to install austerity are going to make them weaker. so it's on the headlines. >> susie: what do you make of the forecast from spain. how much is it going to spread to other countries in europe? >> well, it certainly was not a great surprise, i think. i think the market took it poorly because it came on a light volume friday. i'm not sure the market was all that surprised that spain is in recession for longer. it's big for the concern of europe policy making, and how much appetite do do the germans have to write large checks to keep the euro zone together. that's the critical political que

china's red hot economy is cooling, we look at what the slowdown means for u.s. corporate earnings, and the global economy. >> susie: and one company is making a big push into china, marriott international, a look at its latest earnings and strategy. >> tom: that and more tonight on "n.b.r.!" >> tom: markets were clearly disappointed today the federal reserve does not seem ready to act right away to boost the economy. minutes from the fed's june meeting show only a few policy makers wanted to expand a bond buying program known as quantitative easing to lower interest rates and boost the economy. but as darren gersh reports this is now really a question of timing. >> reporter: the fed was not willing to give markets an immediate monetary fix, but the latest readings from its policy making committee show a couple more lukewarm reports on the labor market might change that. >> and if these employment reports are still weak like this last one, i think a strong case could be made for the fed to expand its balance sheet and try to support the economy more. so, at that

in 2007 the peak of the bone, 180 odd economies tracked by the imf, only three economies contracted. those were fiji, condo, and zimbabwe. who cares. and the history otherwise the the history otherwise is that in any particular year if you look back typically about 20 percent of the economy's report on-gdp growth rate in any year on average. around 20%. and only about one-third of economies are able to grow at about 5%. that is the spread in terms of what we got. 2007, the peak year. only three economies out of 183 which report a negative gdp growth rate. we had more than 50 percent of the world economy growing at about 5%. so this is really a very exceptional time. the question was, what caused this? and then it led to a lot of myths about the history of economic development. what causes this exceptional time was these special factors. one was the fact that these economies were catching up. after a very poor performance in 1980's and 1990's. because of the poor performance a lot of the balance sheets had been cleaned up in these economies in terms of the macroeconomics finances that

requesting to say is this a bad economy or good economy. they already established they are angels showers about the economy and jobs picture and retirement, pensions and the like but part of that is saying you know what, what president obama says about trying to get out of the deep hole is true in the american mind. they say you know what, he got a bad deal coming in, the economy was in bad shape and i think he is tryin hammer that point home time and time again. that is why when you see him on the channel pain trail he talks about romney as a guy who is a rich guy and doesn't understand you and doesn't relate to you sand that shows up also in the favorability ratings where obama again really is miles ahead of the challenger. >> chip and a.b., president obama has been president tore three and a half years now. if you were to bring in a ceo to turn around a company that was failing and they didn't do it or he or she didn't get it done it flee and a half years would they still be the c.e.o. time to stop blaming george bush and take some respo

economy is in the midst of a transition comparable from the agriculture economy to the industrial economyook back at that period in history that is a transition which the united states managed remarkably well. the history of the midwestern state, the agriculture belt in that period is kind of amazing. what happened is the farmers looked around and saw there would not be enough jobs on the farms to employ their kids. rural communities spent a huge amount of money on schools. you had places like iowa, illinois, had the best schools in the united states. the kids who graduated from those schools went to the cities, and they got better jobs in new york, in chicago, in l.a. and san francisco than the kids who were born there on the basis of that education that their communities invested in. america is going through a transition that is very similar right now but instead of investing in education teachers are being fired. the u.s. right now has the best educated 60-year-olds in the world. that's the result of historic investment. but younger generations are much less educated than other parts o

>> it creates far more uncertainty for the economy. we have a struggling economy. here we are three years after recession, and we have the worst recovered, 10-10 since world war ii. this will create more uncertainty. secondly, it does the solve the problem. i guess that is the key point. it will not be good for the economy to fight over this. secondly, it is not serious about deficit reduction. but the spending levels we can double everywhere these taxes. so i really think we ought to agree on extending these cuts or at least stopping the tax increases and making a serious commitment, a guaranteed upper down vote on a fundamental task of reform next year so we can discuss not only how we have a or corporate tax code, how do we sustain our entitlements. how do we get health care costs under control? >> how does it reduce uncertainty? >> they will be punished. it is those that are most likely to contribute to growth. we may be able to find one that thinks it is good for the economy. >> how do you go home and talk to people in how does the economy were? -- how does th

it reflects ongoing slowdown in the global economy, ongoing weakness in the u.s. economy. it should come as no surprise when you see businesses not willing to add significant quantities. >> reporter: today's retail data did prompt some economists to downgrade their estimates for 2nd quarter economic growth to close to 1%. that would be roughly half the increase in the first quarter. but, some optimists do see a silver lining that could boost consumer spending in the months ahead. gasoline prices have fallen nearly 50 cents a gallon since they peaked in april. >> falling gasoline prices will certainly help the u.s. consumer. you couple that with modest improvements in nominal wages and what it points to, quite frankly, is a household standard of living that's improved. >> reporter: shoppertrak is predicting a strong 4% gain in august back-to-school sales. but there are plenty of skeptics who think sales will be flat or even lower, as parents stick to buying necessities. erika miller, "n.b.r.," new york. >> tom: still ahead, doomsday for u.s. i.o.u.s? one of the biggest owne

economy. respectfully, mr. secretary, i completely disagree. folks, you will see that. also this evening, housing starts to the upside. so are stocks but will it continue? neil kashkari joins us. and chris christie gets the keynote at the gop convention. he's out of the veep race though. "the kudlow report" is moments away. >>> just when everybody hates tech you have melanox, skywork solutions, ibm. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to find it for you right here at "mad money." i'm jim cramer. see you tomorrow. hey, larry, what do you have for us? >>> hey, jimmy. i had a good interview today with treasury man tim geithner. do you know what? we agreed to disagree cordially. good evening, folks. uh i'm larry kudlow. this is "the kudlow report." the top story my interview with tim geithner that made headlines all day. he acknowledged the economy is faltering but says it is because there is not enough government spending. respectfully, i disagree. the interview touched on the ec

it's not -- in a weaker economy. it's not an accident last time any quality reached a level that is comparable to what we have today was the 1929 great depression. and the reason for this, let me try to explain very quickly, the people with the top save a significant fraction of their income, 15, 20%. people at the bottom can't. they spend all their money. so when you redistribute money from the bottom to the top, you reduce demand. now the response of the fed ignored what was going on the and said i know how to keep demand going. let's create a bubble. of course they didn't say it quite that way. what they did discover that regulations. they had a flood of liquidity and that it creates the bible and the kept the economy going in spite of the fact of the low demand rising from level of inequality. worked but only temporarily. that was predictable and a loss predicted and now we are dealing with the aftermath but part of the aftermath is we still have a degree of equality, but we don't have the bubbly and that means o

economy is stuck in the mud. we'll look at why growth slowed in the second quarter. >> tom: and after months of hype, the london summer olympics are finally here. how it could impact the u.k. economy even after the games end. that and more tonight on n.b.r.! wall street was on a stimulus high today. stocks surged sharply, as investors and traders are counting on central banks in europe and the u.s. to announce moves next week to stimulate the global economy. here's why they're feeling confident. the heads of france and germany said today they are ready to take bolder steps to deal with the region's debt problems. in a statement they said they determined to do everything to protect the euro area. their comments came a day after the president of europe's central bank said he was prepared to do quote "whatever it takes to preserve the euro" and to ease borrowing costs for spain and italy. all this comes as federal reserve chairman bernanke has been hinting that the fed is stands ready to stimulate the u.s. economy a

this economy is in bad shape. we don't know what's going to happen with the european economies. sorts of factors going into this beyond just keeping taxes low for business. shouldn't we expect more from him on that front? what would you suggest? >> reporter: yes and we're getting more. we in the house have passed a specific budget detailing how it would solve this problem. the senate hasn't passed a budget for three years. president obama hasn't tried for four years to deal with this problem. mitt romney has put out more specifics on reforming the tax code, cleaning up the corporate system, getting rid of special interest loopholes, lowering rates to 25% on corporations. he has put out more specifics on how to reform entitlement programs, to saved me care from bankruptcy, to cut government spending, to reduce the deficits than barack obama, the united states senate has. so he has put out these specifics so i think this narrative is kind of false in many ways because what mitt romney has done is given us not only specific plans but reapplying those core principles that made ameri

i thought profits drove the economy, i thought entrepreneurship drove the economy.illy-nilly print all this out the thin air and assets prices go up and where's the evidence of that? this is just the fed covering its own keyeser. >> clearly earnings and profits have doubled since the bottom. far be it for me to be the eternal defender of the federal reserve, but largely speaking i just -- i don't know what the alternative is. and i understand there's a lot of people out theresaying, well, raise interest rates and you'll spur borrowing, you'll steepen the curve. but that doesn't happen in a vacuum. if you're still in the lee laugh r -- deleveraging environment -- >> you can't do anything about the federal reserve. those issues are there. >> it cannot solve all the problems of the economy. that's absolutely clear. by the way, nobody is sitting here saying the federal reserve is what raised stock prices by the amount that they've risen. the key thing is companies do have to make profits. the key point here is when you have expansionary monetary policy, it has an effect

our economy needs to grow constantly to keep everyone employed. that gives you an idea of where we need to be, and what it shows you is even though we have gotten back to where we were, we are a long way from our potential, and this is where the job market took a long time to recover. we do not have a jobs problem. we have a growth problem. you cannot force people to hire if they do not have reason to hire, and that is why doing things to get growth going, that is the best way to get a recovery in the job market. if you look back, we are seeing more signs of this. second, our recovery has been very slow. is it credible to believe the u.s. economy can speed up eventually and get back to full employment, which is around 4 or 5% unemployment rate. in my mind, there are five factors are would like to throw out for you that i think are really driving a lot of what is going on, and i think these are five factors you will be hearing a lot about, and they are what is pushing the economy back to full employment, and it requires you to stretch your imaginat

you think the economy is strong enough to with stand it. >> the economy is strong enough to with strand it and even if they do it, it is it a threat and if they exercised on the threat, the rest of the world would open up the straits immediately. yes, the biggest danger, johnathon is right. biggest danger it will boil over in a military confrontation and that confrontation is one thing that could upset a ot of things it is not the price was oil. a lot of that oil is getting smuggled and you don't know where oil comes on the world market. half of them are misname exclude painted over. it goes on all of the time. oil trading is a bandit's scheme. it happens all of the time and not a question of the prices going up. >> cheryl, we do a topic like this a couple of months. iran stands up and does the sabre rattling. the fact we talk about this is laughable. we don't have a policy. and john talks about it every week . ee that is the root of the problem. we need to take control. >> we are happen that john is back safe and sound we might add. >> one much europe biggest companies creating job in

if he kept talking about the economy?o. no, he did not. >> senator mccain's campaign actually said, and i quote, "if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose." >> there is also this bit of creative reimagining on mitt romney's part last fall. >> sometimes, i just don't think that president obama understands america. now, i say that because this week, or was it last week, he said that americans are lazy. i don't think that describes america. >> so, did president obama really say the people he's hoping to vote for him are lazy? survey says nope. >> you know, we've been a little bit lazy, i think, over the last couple of decades. we've kind of taken for granted, people want to come here, and we aren't out there hungry selling america and trying to attract new businesses into america. >> so, he did say the word lazy, which in retrospect he probably wishes he hadn't, but he wasn't talking about americans, he was talking about policymakers, washington. i think america probably thinks washington has been a bit lazy

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host: the overall economy. clearly, it is the attitudes, but thought of the next two to four years, and the polls that i am done and that the others have done, the economy is still rules. it is the single most-important issue. this ratchets things up a bit, given the importance of that decision. it only scenes -- seems that it did not convince very many people to change either side politically or to change sides on the issue, but the economy doesn't dominate. and it matters probably more as i point out. out in the southwest, in the old mining towns where unemployment is higher, you see much more of a concern about it than you do in the eastern part of the state. the voters tend to be now may be voting republican, to be culturally conservative. many of them are fiscally conservative. of voters in the polls i have known, and those the other seven, will make a judgment based on whether they think the economy is likely to get better, whether they are more optimistic than pessimistic about the future, whether they t

it's a war being waged in our economy. under president obama, the number of women living in poverty has skyrocketed, hit hardest in every poverty-related category. 17 million women now in poverty. 800,000 more than when obama took office. >> juan: the question is why do single women overwhelmingly support mr. obama? joining me now with insight. michelle fields a contributor to the daily caller web site and marjorie, a democratic pollster. both women are in washington this evening. margie, let's start with you. it's worth noting that nearly half of single mothers receive support from the federal government. that's not the only reason but is that the main reason why they are such big supporters of president obama? >> there is a few things. first, i think it's important that we keep consistent what terms we're using here. single women are different from single mothers. single men also vote dispro-importance portion natalie for obama and there is a lot at play here. single women are disproportionately younger. they are disprop

economy is clearly bad.f we're down to 27% of people are actually optimist that i can the economy will get better -- >> are demes worry about that, is that concerned? >> no question politically it matters. a weak economy hurts the incumbent. on the other hand, we're not sitting around on our hands looking for things to get worse. before, you know, we try to help people. yes, the economy is tough. for president bm obama. but i do believe he has a lot of credibility to go out and talk about the steps that he's taken, the steps that he would like to take and those they will continue to oppose. there's one mission -- to defeat barack obama. back in 1980 when we had a democratic president in hard times, ronald reagan had some credibility. e because he came from a union household. he was a president of union. he talked about his father getting laid off at christmas. governor romney talks about firing people. >> the question is, is it going to get better? right now, we're in what we call a growth recession. we're i

economy standing alone by itself as it did for so many decades. we're in an integrated economy.an economy that includes europe and its eurozone problems and an economy that includes china and india with low wages but we are busy creating wealth to bring more people up out of poverty. we have to realize we're in an international economic system. as the president and others on the republican side have been saying, we can be heard and go to the edge again if the eurozone starts to have significant problems and plan spain and greece and ireland and some of the other countries are not able to get their economy going, we can be in trouble if china was not able to keep its economy going. we have to look at the whole thing as an international problem and not just a national problem for americans. working hard is a great athlete for all this to have. i was saying to my wife the other night, every 17-year-old kid should get a menial job somewhere mopping the floor or doing something they do not like and realize they had better get their education and prepare themselves for higher skilled

this economy? >> of course, he does. >> matt lauer nailed him into that coffin. my question, does david wish he had that to take back, the president owns this economy? >> it doesn't matter what he says. it matters what the american think. clearly the american people are looking forward and they're not looking backwards. there is some justification for the fact that a previous president got the economy into this mess, but that is irrelevant in terms of the president's re-election prospects. he has to provide a vision for the future for america. chris: the president has to cover for the fact that he had six months walking into office, the first six months of his presidency which were terrible due to what he inherited, but he has to explain it, all of it. >> he made a fundamental miss calculation at the beginning of his presidency and his own people, his former economic advisors talks about this. they assumed the economy was like a v, straight down but then would bounce back. chris: like under reagan.

global economy. here's why they're feeling confident. the heads of france and germany said today they are ready to take bolder steps to deal with the region's debt problems. in a statement they said they determined to do everything to protect the euro area. their comments came a day after the president of europe's central bank said he was prepared to do quote "whatever it takes to preserve the euro" and to ease borrowing costs for spain and italy. all this comes as federal reserve chairman bernanke has been hinting that the fed is stands ready to stimulate the u.s. economy and policymakers could do just that when they meet on tuesday in washington. with so much help potentially on the way, the dow skyrocketed almost 190 points, closing above the psychologically important 13,000 level. the nasdaq jumped 65 points and the s&p rose 26 points. for the week, the major averages were all up 1% or more. and one market strategist says the markets are what's driving action in europe. >> the financial markets are the ultimate vigilante in all of th