economy. and will you have seen that we have revised our growth forecast down to 2.5% in 2015. this is largely due to those factors that affected the first quarter. but this is not our main message, because we believe that this is -- does not actually indicate sub stantive material trends in the u.s. economy. our main point is that we still believe that the underpinnings for continued expansion are in place. the labor market has steadily improved over the last year, job growth has averaged 260,000 per month, and financial conditions remain very accommodative. moreover we expect cheaper oil prices to continue taking -- to continue boosting growth while at the same time taking a bite out of the oil-related investment as we saw in the first quarter. as always, there are risks and uncertainties to this outlook. for example, further delay of the housing recovery and the strong dollar could be a drag on future growth. nevertheless, when we look at the whole picture, we believe that growth in the com

doesn't peter have one less dollar to spend in that same economy? >> that's right. >> and isn't the net impact over the long run negative not positive? >> that's right, making the debt worse is a problem. >> my friend from new jersey rightly pointed with pride to the clinton administration surpluses and rightly criticized the bush administration deficits and impact that he had on the economy, but reminds me of churchill's description of clement at lee that carries on as if nothing that happened. isn't it true bill clinton's administration cut 4% of gdp, reduced entitlement spending, in his words, ending welfare as we know it, approved the biggest capital gains tuck in american history. george bush comes along, increases federal spending two% of gdp, approves the biggest expansion of entitlement spending since the great society, started the entire era of stimulus spending. mr. obama came in increased it by another 2% of gdp. further expanded our entitlement obligations, drove stimulus spending through the roof. what do these experiences tell us? >> w

economy. gao story, the resident commissioner that was mentioned. bail it says na if it comes to stay, all the companies will love porto ricco, and said that the small business sector the local business sector will be the one. they'll be the boreden of the 51st state. that will destroy the economy because it won't give economy. to me, it's dealing with a crisis right now. i know it's the concern of the show today. what's the alternative. the popular party does not support statehood. what should be the relationship for the home island and the united states. going ford from here. >> i think we need a new economic deal between porto rico and the united states. but in which porto rico, instead of asking for more federal transfer money, welfare, will ask for the tools, to give them the flexibility to make the decision, the same way to make the decisions, tracking investment with the island. so you can have the tools for economic development. that's what i call it. it means basically means that in o

the rows of our economy institutions to make our economy more equal.you know let's try to make sure our distribution of income is fair, is working better for americans. >> host: be paid more, get more -- >> guest: the minimum wage is as low as about the half-century ago. we are supposed to be the greatest century. those at the bottom habits in a pay raise and close to half a century. i think it's just amazing. that is one part. a second part that is related to that is let's be sure we don't make things worse. our trade agreement, the president proposed tpp, transpacific partnership and agreement across the atlantic. they will make basically transferring and making that more difficult to protect environments, more difficult to protect worker safety. even regulations that make our economy work well. they are going to make drug prices higher blowing our standard of living because they won't make it more difficult for generics to be brought into market and they will expose us more to unfair competition. so let's not make things worse. they are strongly aga

what's actually happening in our economy? the percentage of gdp going to the financial service went from a little over 2% at one time to 8 percent. they were taking away 40 percent of corporate profit money that could have gone into real productive investment. >> right. and that is what you explain so well through demystifying the financial position of the economy in your book. the idea the idea that the financial sector is supposed to be not an end but a pipeline for capital to go to productive uses in the economy. and we often think about it there have been cracks in the pipeline. the financial sector has been siphoning off money for itself in the real economy is just getting a trickle. as we think about this question of what the economy should look like call up the financial sector should look like, you offer up ideas about reforms that can go beyond that. i would love to hear some about that. >> i would like to begin by pointing out that frank was mostly about preventing stocks. a whole a whole debate about how we stop it

it undermined our economy in two ways economy. it undermined our economy in two ways that are pretty obvious. one of them was it made her economy more unstable. it was reckless lending and we saw the consequences in 2008. but it also undermined our economy in another way. people at the top don't spend as much money as the ones down below who have to spend everything just to get by and often spend more than that and they have more debt. so they would get the aggregate demand growth and how can they get the economy to grow? historically 70% of gdp, and if you take the money away from the people who spend it you're not going to grow the economy. >> exactly, very much before the crash, people who were owning homes were using them as an atm. in many ways that was becoming a way for people to borrow to make ends meet. it was a particularly expensive form of debt with credit card loans at 29% interest rates, and that was before the credit card after 2009 which really was an example of regulation working and saving about $50 billion in fe

>> we are not doing enough to move the economy forward, to be the leaders in the global economy. here is what happened in the six months, the things we have done have been bipartisan. they have been things we have tried to do the last two years. payment provisions for medicare doctors, i had a bill on that in 2009 that was blocked and would not move forward. i feel like we're doing filibuster cleanup in the last four years. now, we are bringing up things we could have done. but we are getting them done, that is a good thing. but then we are bogged down in things go back to ideology. we have a human trafficking bill that everyone supported. it is a huge issue, it gets bogged down in the abortion fight that they no sense. we wasted weeks on it. every time we try to move, we get caught up in, again, this sort of ideological extremism. we have one the most important things, the economy and moving things forward, and debating what is not far enough -- all reasonable things to debate. there are important differences and waste figure that out. instead of doing the highway bill, the bank

the fed says the economy has seen growth. could a slowdown in services threaten the economy? ♪ angie: checking stories around the world chinese rescue teams have begun cutting into the whole of the cruise ship that capsized in the xe river. 14 survivors have been found and 29 bodies have been recovered. 400 are still missing. the ship's captain is in custody and questions are being asked about why he didn't anchor the ship after forecasts of bad weather. a senior army officer has turned himself in to face charges of human trafficking. he is a lieutenant general and denies the allegations. more than 50 people have been arrested after dozens of bodies were found. the region is struggling to cope with the wave of migrants. the ukraine says ro pressure violated a shaky truce. clashes have continued since the cease-fire was signed. they say russian forces are involved in the conflict. back to the markets. told -- after iran chesapeake energy down 3%. s&p closed slightly higher. greece will reach a deal with its creditors. let's head over with john brady. more on global markets. he

economy. >> martin ford is an author and a silicon valley entrepreneur with over 25 years of experience in computer design and software development. his writing has appeared in fortune, "forbes," the atlantic, and he is a frequent keynote speaker and guest on radio and television on matters of technology. he's author of two books and joins us to discuss his latest, "the rise of the robots: technology and the threat of a jobless future." it's a book about the future of work and a world which may with handed over -- may be handed over to technology. what are long-term consequences of the seemingly inevitable rise of the machines? that will be the topic of tonight's lecture. so please join me in offering a very enthusiastic welcome for our guest tonight, martin ford. [applause] >> thank you very much and thanks for coming. it's really a pleasure to be here. i should say right off the bat that i noticed in the program the title for tonight's presentation is how to stop robots from stealing jobs, a

in the you if he secures a deal to help the economy. -- eu if he secures a deal to help the economy.ortant is it for business to support david cameron on this? reporter: we know business is supportive of u.k. in the eu. when you look at the last referendum, the scottish referendum people came out late and it was last minute panic so it is important now that those big business groups come out and actually say look we can get them reforms and will the prime minister. and it is really is the big deal. mark: backing austerity reforms and a list of five here. what are they? is there they are they? svenja o'donnell: most of them are achievable. improving the common market improving the market for the economy to thrive. i do not think there will be much optimism. the two sticking points is an opt out. it would be a treaty change and with heard voices from countries such as germany who say it kaput an addendum to the treaty. that is key. the real issue that is causing trouble at the moment is immigration. david cameron wanted to secure curbs on so-called n-word benefits. the benefits migrant

economy. to put as many people to work and allow the nation to be strong. and allow people to participate in the profits, and greatness of the greatest country on earth. so when times get tough, they admit that it's cumbersome tools, it doesn't have the ability to create jobs can't put people to work that is something only the congress can do of course and of course private enters. what the fed can do is move interest rates down where it's so cheap to borrow so that it doesn't just impact business but everyone. build things puts more people to work. now, at the time when the great recession was taking hold finance chairman ben bernanke was focusing on the housing economy, even if the other parts of the housing economy were not all that strong. what will the fed did not know was that the housing market a ton of jobs were created and a huge amount of debt as the other departments are built and then purchased. the fed raised its short-term rates between 2003 and 2006 stopping at 2.5% to cool the

economy? and could it influence in any way, sorry, when you will decide to increase the interest rates. >> well i, unfortunately, greece and its creditors are faced with very difficult and consequential decisions at this point and in the days ahead. and my hope is that they will continue to work together to try to find a solution to the, you know, current difficulties and impasse. obviously european leaders place great value on preserving european monetary economic and political integration and the greek people have made clear it's important to them to remain in the euro area. so this is a very difficult situation. in the event there is not agreement, i do see the potential for disruptions that could affect the european economic outlook and global financial markets. i would say that the united states has very limited direct exposure to greece either through trade and financial or financial channels. but to the extent that there are impacts on the euro area, economy or global financial markets

very larges a number, and it is a very different kind of economy because it is a closed economy.o see that saudi arabia is opening up also, so one of the big themes this week, in addition to talking about the federal reserve is this idea at we have a very large economy. china and saudi arabia. the point where they need to merge more with the global economy, so the idea that we have a $10 trillion market in china is not terribly surprising , given the underlying economy, but they have got a long way to go in terms of opening up their economy, and there is a lot of volatility that will happen along the way. i was reading the valuations are the highest they have been in five years and that there is a lot of debt and leverage in the stock market, especially when you have gdp at its weakest since 1990. can you have this arming, can you have higher valuations and a lower gdp? at what point does that not work? kevin: this is a very different thing than what we are used to hear. their options in terms of investing are much more limited than what we have here. so one of the places the mon

it undermines the economy. it removes viable consumers who are capable of buying the products and services and that's critically important because those are the market that drive the economy that drive economic growth and also an important driver of innovation. you can, for example things in terms of someone like steve job an icon for innovation, but if you took steve jobs and dropped him on an island by himself he base which would be gathering coconuts just like anyone else. his particular talents wouldn't have any real value because he wouldn't have a market. he wouldn't have anyone to create products for and sell to. so he would be unable to leverage his particular talents and that's, i think one of the risks we face going forward is that as we undermine our broad-based consumer market that has really been the driver of our prosperity since world war ii there is the risk that prosperity is ultimately going to be thenned and even the risk that we could enter into a kind of a downward spiral. it's easy to imag

china is a growing economy.f anyone is concerned with the declining growth rate, china has the highest growth in the world. it is not only russia. the whole world is turning towards asia. europe is interested as well and we are destined to do that because we are neighbors. it is a natural movement and development. there are many values which are common for us. it gives us equal access to addressing international issues. [applause] charlie: is it a more natural affinity than europe and united states? is china more in the future a place that russia feels more comfortable than with europe and the united states, and could that lead to some anti-western alliance? anti-western, anti-american. president putin: well, china including us, are not forging relations against someone. we are building -- we are not building alliances against anyone. we are building alliances for implementing and building our own natural interest. [applause] you are expanding the nato. there is no opportunity anymore, but nato was created to pa

china is the growing economy.f anyone is concerned with the climbing growth rates -- with declining growth rates, it is china. 10% crude is the highest in the world and the whole world is turning toward asia. europe is interested in it as well. we are destined to do that because we are neighbors. it was a natural affinity, natural movement and development carried besides, there are many values which are common for us to protect against the arena. we are addressing international issues. [applause] charlie rose: is it a more natural affinity than europe and the united states? is china more in the future a place that russia feels more comfortable than with europe or the united states? and could that lead to some anti-winston alliance? tyler perry: -- charlie rose: anti-american alliance? vladimir putin: china -- we are not building alliances against anyone. we are building alliances for implementing and meeting our own national interests. we are drawing attention to the fact that you are exposing nato. nato was creat

economy.rend is decline of 1.5%. at the moment the economy will start to rise this moment, our cargo operations will also rise. ryan: quick question on the high-speed railway you want to build. exciting project. how much would it cost, and who is going to pay for it? >> [indiscernible] ryan: $20 billion. who is going to pay for that? >> i invite you to be the first passenger. ryan: thank you very much, vladimir yakunin. back to you, guy. guy: ryan chilcote, thank you very much indeed. a reminder, tomorrow, you can watch charlie rose's conversation with the russian president, vladimir putin. that will be right here on bloomberg television. we will bring you live coverage of the event from noon u.k. time. that interview with president putin sure to feature in our new show, "bloomberg best." it is a wrapup of all our best interview coverage of the week. dubai, we were there for the saudi market open. and top interviews from spief. that is on bloomberg television and bloomberg.com this weekend. ta

economy annually. annually.could be an understatement because expanding the size of the market expands innovation. expanded competition expands innovation. spending less time worried about these different barriers gives you more room to innovate. i think you can potentially, in addition to the economy, get some extra speed going out of this. now, i don't want to -- this isn't the whole agenda. there's a lot more you need to do in the economy, a lot of economic policies. this one adds this, that one adds that, that one adds that. you do a bunch of them and they add up to substantially more productivity. i think this is a key part of that. >> this is a good opportunity to ask you all to actually weigh in here. we have an audience response question. i'd like do go to question two i believe, on trade. what i would like to do is ask the participants in this room their opinion about the transpacific partnership, just how material will be to their business. i think you can all respond now. is this number, the number of

>> of course having the world's largest economy it attracts the bad guys. while i'm not familiar with this study that you cited indicating china is a major part of these problems, a lot of them did emulate former soviet places. it's too many people that have too much time on their hands with the sophistication that relates to computers and networks and servers and it is truly a challenge, not just for the irs this is a federal state, local, federal and national problem. i don't see it ending anytime soon. as soon as we increase our security, the bad guys will security, the bad guys will increase their efforts and they have a lot of time on their hands. >> we've spent a lot of times trying to focus on the symptoms of problems and we don't always focus on the root causes. one of the things that it is important to focus on symptoms and solutions but we also need to focus on root problems. >> mr. chairman confirms tax related victims florida 334,962, utah 10654. delaware 4703 those are your constituencies that were victim of identity theft. 1,889,736 if you inc

if you hike taxes too soon, you will slow your economy down and the japanese economy will bellyflop. >> we will get the jobless rates from japan as well. >> can't wait. i'm very excited. >> me too. thank you so much. so good to see you. we did that on air. yes, we did. >> much more coming up on bloomberg market day. weak demand and what it means for the countries reform timeline, coming up next. ♪ alix: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. i am alex steele. china's rally not at the top of the agenda. market story has a lot to do with big issues at the talk. this rally has been opening up the chinese financial marketplace and institutions. the degree that the shanghai-hong kong connect and the liberalization and other aspects of financial reform spur a theme that picks up momentum that their retail investors go crazy about, that is part and parcel of what we are seeing here. >> it forms a backdrop of their discussions. speaking of this tear, 41 percent gain, but it did in their correction last week. give us a perspective on the stock market rallies. it doesn't tend to end very we

it means to make shorter the gap between the national economy and developed economy. okay. now we have some between potential growth and actual growth but potential growth is not high also. next year we'll be closer to potential growth but that's 2% of gdp. it's still lower than average in the world. average growth is between 3.5 and 3.8% for this year and for the future and the point is to have russian growth higher than average that's the way to make short of this. what have to be done for that? i'd like to remind the adam smith definition for the economic growth you need two things peace and easy succession. okay we'll talk probably about -- by peace here we can think about sanctions and others. if we compare russian with the european for instance we'll see it's much lower but let us compare it with the stuff from asia countries with the other former soviet union republics and revenues and of course the other one you mentioned, that is three things. >> but what specific measure versus been taken to change the direction of travel for the underlying economy? because russia

gary what do you think that means in terms of our economy? you come from orlando, the, you know terrorist -- not the -- the tourist capital of the united states. what do you think would happen there? >> look we are a resilient bunch, and unless it's some sort of a 9/11 attack which is as john said really had a major effect and unless there is a slew of attacks in areas like the malls or the movie theaters that really affect people and how they feel about what they do on a daily basis, i think everything's going to be a-okay. if something does occur, just remember we will remember we will get them and then we will move on and then we'll go back to business again. i don't think the economy takes a hit at all. >> sasha, what's your take? >> you know, the whole point of terrorism is instead of having militaries fighting each other so it's to make everyone feel it can happen anywhere anytime. i agree with gary k. you don't allow it to happen. you don't let terrorists affect how you live your life. you go to your 4th of july. i do sigh a breath of

mid-stage ofrly to the economy. the financing is low because the -- has interest rates at set at zero. look at the fundamentals. alix: all right. much more. adam is staying. we will hear much more about stocks and m&a. joe, good to see you. karl, thank you so much. -- it is back. we deal with the latest trends in the m&a way. ♪ alix: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. i am alix steel. now for a look at our top stories this hour, greece is the first country to do for payment to the imf since the 1980's. since the zambia. they told the miami -- the imf they would delay a payment and submitted a request to bundle 1.7 billionling dollars into one lump sum due june 30. , including asd late as last night from the prime minister himself, that payment had been honored and would be honored. i think his words were "do not worry." that willonfident continue to be the case. greece has rejected the latest proposal from their international creditors and prime minister alexis tsipras will address parliament tomorrow. of the

taa is about retraining people who lose their drops in a global economy. that has to be part of the deal in america. to make sure we've got people's backs because of the global economy and the changes happening they lose their jobs. chief seib: the other issue that's high priority for a lot of people in this room is export-import. it used to be a fairly routine exercise around here. not routine this year. in fact serious chance that it dies the summer. what is your view of the prospects for keeping the bank alive? what does it take to get from here to there and why is it so difficult? senator stabenow: this one i just have to shake my head. i do that a lot these days. i remember times when we authorized the next and bank -- xm bank in a voice vote. every other country we are competing with has some financing mechanism. we have had this in place for 80 or 90 years. the idea we would voluntarily give that up? 80% of the individual financing deals are small business. why would we give that up? we are fighting very hard in the senate. this should not be a part

will gimmicks wreck the economy?say absolutely, we're seeing it from higher taxes, higher wages and obamacare, now overtime pay? tammy is here to join us. >> thank you. charles: president obama now saying, overtime, where people can actually start to get this overtime pay, he made some adjustments. a lot of businesses are saying are, another reason to pullback on hiring. >> this is a lot of micromanagement. we've seen with obamacare, there are presumptions that everyone will fall in line, there is a thing called mass, and i thing able to keep your business going, people base owes decisionthosedecisions on what , you cannot micromanage this stuff, it is impacting businesses, with the minimum wage in seattle. we have seen it with obamacare. you have to be able to make a profit to keep the business going to. charles: that is a main point, business 101, as a business owner, i would like to pay people a lot of money, you know, when you are a small business, you are just starts out, there are economicrry -- realities. >> l

it is an important sector not just for the the regular economy but for the global economy.africa, people were suggesting it was because of regulations that many of international banks are stepping away from lending to small and medium-sized businesses in africa, and there was a sort of risk aversion that came with regulation that had a global impact. do you think we are right in terms of the level of caution that we demand from our banks versus a sort of spirit of adventure? andrew: we aren't international economy, and banks have a diverse range of activities -- we are an international economy, and banks have a diverse range of activities. regulators still need to make sure they are cracking down on abuses where they find them that i think the sort of general media story about banks is something we need to move away from. anna: andrew, thank you. he stays with us and tim, thank you. we will be back. ♪ ♪ ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sle

it's so crippling to that city for the economy. i would rather spend money up front versus track them down versus having a city completely incapacitated by a homegrown terrorist. >> if you can spend money and make people think they're safer, that's great. >> we spend money on tsa and 95% of threats aren't detected. >> a state of perpetual fear by the same token, that's not good for the economy to blow -- >> it's not perpetual fear to be on alert. >> you need to be on alert for this -- are you on alert for sharks at the beach? the statistical odds are pretty low you'll get attacked right? >> sharks aren't organizing or strategizing with known terrorist group. we have two situations here where we have isis that grew out of post 9/11. they're younger, they're technologically savvy and they're hitting a point in american society which is weak. we have a cultural phenomenon right now which is young people until the muslim communities are feeling disconnected because a lot of the muslim communities and mosques, a lot of muslim scholars h

biggest economy.anet yellen said she wants to see more decisive evidence of a lasting turnaround. hong kong pro-democracy lawmakers rejected the election plan for the city. this is after three months of protests. the rejection leaves in place the current system where a chief executive is chosen by committee of beijing friendly elite. rather than by the voters. for more this story, let's get to hong kong david joins us. great to see you. give us more on the significance. david: you know it was quite a kerfuffle in the legislative council, 28 voters voted against the china-backed basel. that means that one of the pro-establishment crossed the divide. and the kerfuffle came about because the pro-establishment lawmakers actually tried to lead the legislative chamber, so there would not be a quorum. they wanted to leave because one of the members was feeling ill they wanted to give him time to recover. what this meant, in the end, only eight pro-establishment voters voted for this china backed electoral pl

it would lead to 8 -- for the greek economy -- to a -- for the greek economy.you are now looking at a series of potential outcomes here. we don't know what those outcomes are. if you sit and try to figure out what happens next, plan a german in the eurozone it is that plan a? is there a plan b and c? >> we never intended to leave the eurozone. we believe that greece is part of the eurozone. it means that we will do our best to do so. there are red lines. the situation -- if we had followed their plan we have the looking for a long period of a recession that this economy couldn't bear. guy: for the average greek person -- you have talked about the proposal that is being put forward. lecture you the greek people be thinking about this? -- what do you think the greek people should be thinking about this? >> give us the necessary fiscal space in order to bring back growth. not offer as a proposal that needs to be implemented. for this reason, the greek people should -- they should rethink. guy: there is some confusion about exactly what institutions have offered. p

of a domestic consumer led economy.: bob parker advisor at assets management. he will stay with us through the day. jonathan ferro is sitting down with the head of the swiss national bank, thomas jordan, he will be here later on bloomberg television. we will get the insight that we need right from the horse's mouth thomas jordan, swiss national chairman, coming up. what does a $60 oil prices mean for the suppliers? we are back with one of the biggest pipeline manufacturers. ♪ guy: welcome back, i'm guy johnson, this is "on the move." the main markets are trading lower. there is a mix of nervousness about what is happening with greece, people are factoring in the fed. ironically, given the fact that we are heading to the luxembourg meeting about race, the ten-year market is higher, however, it is down by 17% over the last five days. it is not a great bounds -- bou nce. let's find out what stocks are moving the stock market. caroline: we are watching a german engineer pulling the stock 600 lower. bill finger is off this i

economy?ll let me start with the monetary policy, we completely agree with chairman yellen, that the rate hike should be based on data. both inflation related data and job market we are seeing in the data particularly on inflation is that the pickup is very slow, and we believe that there is a good argument to actually defer until early 2016 any rate hike. in order to err on the side of having potentially a little bit more inflation than 2%, but certainly not having the risk of disinflation having to then lower the rates, when they have just been hiked. so that is the policy area where our recommendation is to err on the side of a a little bit too much inflation, but certainly support growth pickup, and inflation pickup a little bit longer than what currently expected a policy area where we have a clear sense that we would be better off in early 2016 than in it happen 2015 with a rate hike. maria: i think you make a great point so let me ask you about that, because it feels like if we were to

economy. we're looking at 6.4%. that's the unemployment rate. the euro gaining a bit of ground against the dollar right now at 109. a similar level it was trading at last week as well. you can see that by a quarter of a percent against the u.s. dollar. >> we also have greek pmi data that has just broken. a slither of good news for the greeks. it's risen to 48 in may up from last month's 22 month low but clearly still below the 50 mark denoting growth in the manufacturing pmi. still pointing to a downturn but better than last month's reading of 46.5. let's get straight to discuss the latest in markets in europe. he is a partner at rong wealth management. good morning to you. those moves we saw in the bond market yesterday, in countries like germany and u.s. they're not safe havens anymore. they're moving like risk assets. >> when you get near 0 yield in a bond there's no income and no protection they do become significantly more volatile assets because of the long duration they are. what's happ

what are the parallels between the greek economy and u.s. economy? their unemployment rate is still 25%. youth unemployment is 50%. when you have people that don't have job, can't contribute to the economy. you have the pension system they have in place which they have not reformed. that is why merkel is so frustrated with them, this is where they end up. we do have a lot of those issues here in the united states but -- >> yes and no. i think that is really misleading. to make annalgy to the u.s. financial situation is really misleading because greece already has very high taxes. greece has high welfare state obligations and spending that u.s. has. they have a fast aging population and they're not growing. the u.s. is growing. we have a lot of options. if you look at bond markets markets do not believe that the u.s. is anywhere near the debt capacity in the way these european countries are. >> what do you make of the political kind of fireworks we're seeing from tsipras? he said earlier today he basically accused imf and the e.u. of blackmail? he is

economy annually. i think that could be an understatement because expanding the size of the market expands innovation. expanded competition expands innovation. spending less time worried about these different barriers gives you more room to innovate. i think you can potentially, in addition to the economy, get some extra speed going out of this. now, i don't want to -- this isn't the whole agenda. there's a lot more you need to do in the economy, a lot of economic policies. this one adds this, that one adds that that one adds that. you do a bunch of them and they add up to substantially more productivity. i think this is a key part of that. >> this is a good opportunity to ask you all to actually weigh in here. we have an audience response question. i'd like do go to question two, i believe, on trade. what i would like to do is ask the participants in this room their opinion about the transpacific partnership just how material will be to their business. i think you can all respond now. is this number,

economy and the global economy. and you just mentioned that their comb revenues hit a record. as a percentage of gdp it is something like 72%. so they have huge economic clout and that is significant at a time when we are talking about start-ups and the jazzy companies and entrepreneurial companies out of silicon valley. >> where there any surprises this time on the list. >> always. it is interesting if you look at the top ten. first of all, with the plunging oil prices that we've seen recently fascinating that exxon held on to number two spot. and you mentioned chevron and phillips also in the top ten. but the other one that is surprising is cvs, now in the top ten. go figure. here this company has become a powerful player in health care. it stepped over at&t and another energy company to get into the top ten. >> and you spent a lot of your time these days talking to the ceos of fortune 500 kitchens and s a survey that went along with this. the 60th iteration and what did the survey find. >> the top question to the big kwps what is the biggest threat that you're facing and it

there are global economy issues. first of all i'm referring to the area where we are can our influence. there are other areas in which we have established decent interaction and hopefully that will form the groundwork to restore the are-- now china the level of trust in our relations have reached an unprecedented scale an importance in the history. for 40 years, we have been negotiating on the border issue. we have found-- reached acceptable compromises. and this issue is no longer there. we have settled it. for 40 years. and not always do we manage to-- we develop economic contacts. we are actively cooperating within the framework of international organizations within the framework of the united nations. we are developing new integration processes which are quite efficient, and attractive for other countries. the shanghai cooperation organization, it was established to settle border issues. but it didn't stop there. and now this organization is attractive for many other countries. the next summit, a decision might b

the economy looks like.om: there it is, david woo from bank of america/merrill lynch. fedex is doing better than good. it is a bull market, but for labor it is not. you mentioned productivity being a conundrum. they cut costs. what does that do to productivity? how does that benefit america? david: the irony is they have been cutting costs. it is not just a u.s. phenomenon. production growth globally has been coming down. this is an issue that is coming up in a big way in the policy circle in terms of how do you address that. this is assuming the fed is still hiking rates. tom: the heart of this is that fedex was a well-run company three years ago. they did not cut costs then. now they are coming in with a vengeance. brendan: now they are coming after the other new new, looking for regulatory approval to acquire another delivery company. amazon is considering crowd sourced delivery program. that to me is -- that is the real problem for fedex potentially long-term. if anyone can do it, amazon can pull that of

there is a dispersion between different economies.ou are starting to see volatility pickup around the world but it is coming off low levels. it still remains at low levels. quarters five-year treasury. these are not levels that are necessarily shocking the economy are going to disrupt significantly. at this point we are not talking about race -- rates that would slow the economy. that is different than the comments with regard to steve schwarzman's comments. there will be another economic shock from a variety of different ways. what that means from a credit standpoint and liquidity, we have to seeing. how can there is a shock how it is going to be a buffer for liquidity can come back to allow the economy to continue to function. it will happen. is the high-yield market an indicator of how good the economy is performing. guest: historically it has been. that is not mean it is going to be the leading indicator in the future. necessarily mean it is going to be the leading indicator. it ties towards the health of the credit to the market.

economy. working families are tired of the endless manufactured crises that the republicans come up with threatening national security and weakening our economy and costing our country jobs. long time passed for congress to act in a responsible way on these initiatives. this afternoon, we'll go to the white house and wearing orange because we have the world champion -- world champions san francisco giants being honored by the united states -- the president of the united states. some will be boarding planes to go to see the warriors compete for the trophy. any questions? reporter: the house is quickly approaching votes on trade and the president does not want changes to the senate bill. can you support that t.p.a. bill as it came from the senate. ms. pelosi: the house is fast approaching -- do you know when this is going to happen? i suppose when they have the votes and we'll see when that is. we have really had a very, i believe, internally respectful process going forward where we have invite

our conversation should be what we can do to grow the economy.structure program there's a lot we can do. i don't think right now that debt 2030 years from now is what is the our economy back >> i think he missed the boat, quite frankly. cbo points it out. out. we have dropped the ball. next question one of the concerns i i have as the chairman of the housing insurance committee we have a situation where we have designated insurance companies. one of the things that -- that's fine if you feel those that much risk. we have asked before to to give us the criteria on which you base your analysis command we have never gotten it. we have the undersecretary do a good job of giving us sweets. i think part of your job is to figure out how to do risk things. okay. you pointed out as a problem. that is what is in your report. it talks about progressing potential threats to find ways to get back to financial stability. do we have criteria in place to do risk? >> you know, the analysis is laid out clearly in the record that is quite public. this is the questi

economy. i'm wondering do you think there has been a meaningful shift and one that will persist in the behavior of households with receive to spending and saving? or would you be more inclined to look at the recent more encouraging retail sales figures and see a return of the american consumer there? >> so i think in recent weeks, we have received data that suggests that consumer spending is growing at a moderate pace. i'd say car sales, for example, were very strong. part of it probably represents payback for weak sales during the winter months, but nevertheless, the pace of car sales has been strong in recent readings on retail sales and on spending on services have suggested an improvement in the pace of consumer spending. there are questions at this point about just how much impact we've seen of lower energy prices on consumer spending. the decline in oil prices translates into an improvement in household income on average of something like $700 per household, and i'm not convinced yet by

economy. and as i mentioned, there appear to be unusually large elements of slack over and above that in the form of somewhat stilted press labor force participation in part-time work for economic reasons. so i think it's fair to say that most members, most participants in the committee wouldn't judge yet, although some might, but most wouldn't judge us to be at quote maximum employment. wage increases are still running at a low level but there have been some tentative signs that wage growth is picking up. we are seeing an increase in the growth rate of the employment cost and a mild uptick in the growth of average hourly earnings. i would call these tentative signs of stronger wage growth. i think it's not yet definitive but it is a hopeful sign. still, however inflation not only headlines, but stripping out food and energy, underlying inflation, core inflation is still running below the committee's objective. so i think we need to see additional strength in the labor market and the economy m

we're talking about a significant drag on the economy and economic growth. we're talking about slower income growth for folks. and all of those things are there and one of the things that i think i need to point out is as soon as you start to address this, the less you have to do to fix it because if you wait what you need to do to fix it gets more difld and more difficult. i mentioned one more thing because it relates to what you're saying. the debt has almost doubled since 2007 so our ability to deal with an economic crisis going forward is going to be really hampered with the ability to deal with it is going to be very difficult. that's a really important part of it going forward. we don't want to have another recession. >> let's talk about the fix and what fix is this, as you mentioned. do slightly reforming the programs that are driving our debt medicaid medicare social security, the interest we owe ourselves and other countries, for example that make up 67% are spent, will that do it moving around the edges or will we need total restructuring if they a

economy. i am wondering -- do you think there has been a meaningful shift and one that will persist in the behavior of households with was to spending and savings, or will you be more inclined to look at the recent, more encouraging retail sales and see perhaps a return of the american consumer? so i think in recent weeks we have received that consumerests spending is growing at a moderate pace. i would say, you know, car sales, for example, were very strong. part of it probably represents payback for weak sales during the winter months, but never the less, the pace of car sales has been strong, and recent readings on retail sales and on spending suggested anave improvement in the pace of consumer spending. this are questions at point about just how much impact we have seen of lower energy prices on consumer spending. the decline in oil prices transfers into an improvement in household income on average of something like $700 per household, and i am not convinced yet, but the data that we have