economy. >> the united states role in the world is far more than our military. we are the economic leader of the world. people look to us for moral leadership. people look to us for stability. i think if you look at the period from world war to until now the world has changed a lot. a lot of the power we have economically in the world is rooted in what happened after world war ii when we had most of the world's gnp and we had the only solid currency in the world. we're now in a world where there's more competitive forces at work. i think the united states remains the natural leader for the next generations. >> rose: jack lew for the hour next. >> rose: funding for "charlie rose" has been provided by the following: >> and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and information services worldwide. captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> rose: jack lew is here. he is the u.s. secretary of the treasury, a role he has served in sin

economy has been very similar to other economies. i don't think they are a very important factor in explaining. >> thank you, my time has expired. >> thank you mr. chairman, the report notes that while investments below the rate of payout to shareholders but not financial firms, the corporations are now returning half of the funds that could be used for investment to stockholders, one possible explanation provided by the report was the rise of payouts to shareholders may be related to the decline in the startup rate as young firms are likely to reinvest the cash flow then mature firms. the lower investment growth of shareholders suggest they had more shares than they could properly reinvest. the rise and share buybacks predates current economic circumstances. senator baldwin has pointed to the 1982 fec rule that provided a safe harbor. prior to 1982 buybacks were very limited use of corporate profits. ibach says we know can make earnings report look better and foster short-term thinking in the corporate governance. can you comment on

got a two-step economy, a two sector economy.ou have an economy that is doing quite poorly in this excess capacity that needs to just be shut down and removed. then you have the new economy that is doing fine actually. if you look at the eye is some numbers, the pmi numbers that come out of china -- the psi pmi numbers that come out of china, i think the economy is fine. we hardly speak about the chinese bond market. equity markets are just sentiment-driven. have a natural rhythm. apart from china, look at what around the world where we have had a three-week rally. everything seems fine at the moment. information onal the fundamental economic front, this rally, i think, is going to turn around and reverse. rishaad: we have already seen the kleins and the u.s. as well. you are also suggesting, under it iss. economy, perhaps, talked down a bit. you seem to be more hop shares -- more hawkish than other people are pricing in. >> yes. the modus operandi of the fed has always been to prepare the market for what they are going to do, le

economy. but doing it in an incremental way, by doing it in a targeted way, we have kept a unity between the united states and europe that i don't think russia expected. in the case of the iran sanctions, doing the oil sanctions incrementally, putting them in place so that china and india could adjust over a period of time, kept them with us. it's easy to stand up and say, use all your ammunition right at the start. but you wouldn't do that in war and you shouldn't do it with sanctions. charlie: just tighten the pressure. jack: you tighten the pressure and show you'll ratchet it down if there's a change of behavior. charlie: do we assume sanctions were part what have led to the great change in south africa? jack: i think economic pressure did lead to the change in south africa. and it took a very long time to put an international consensus together. i think that things like the jackson amendment helped to change russia's policy on its human rights policies, particularly with regard to soviet j

this is an economy that does not want to borrow, rather than economy that does not want to learn. while we have global deflation and the global picture is a'sortant to the euro are agenda, it is clear we have to have structural reform and fiscal expansion. first reaction yesterday was they are standing firm, he is doing every thing he can but the picture now is much worse than expected? a master ofnk he is rhetoric. on balance, the increase in quantitative easing is good news. at the margins, good news, but it is insufficient. it is necessary but not sufficient to drive recovery in euro land. i worry at some point it'll blow up. francine: and what point are we expecting central banks to drive recovery? but the markets are mispricing it, expecting too much or do not understand what central banks do. james: it is very important that we focus on central bank policies because the monetary framework is a key part of what drives the global economy. what are governments going to do? i think we have to see global fiscal expansion to get us out of this rutt. we are seeing some signs of tha

domestic economy. we are exposed to the direct effects, slower export growth from slower growth abroad, and as importantly the financial market repercussions of slower growth which tends to mean a stronger dollar, lower equity prices and so forth, higher risk spreads do have implications for the u.s. outlook. in january we had been through a month or so of heightened volatility and concern about these developments. in our january statement the committee highlighted these developments. the u.s. economy was continuing to perform well and we declined to characterize the likely impact we thought that they would have. we said we were assessing their implications for the economy and the balance of risks. in our most recent statement in march, we indicated that global economic and financial developments posted risks, and i've tried to explain today the risks that those developments pose. now, we did not say that on net we thought the balance of risks was to the downside. i would point that out. there are risk

economy. we appreciate this annual opportunity to engage in dialogue with you and look forward to discussing this year's economic report of the president. much has been learned over the course of this slow-growth recovery, and these lessons will only continue for the foreseeable future. the current recovery has been slower than previous recoveries and subdued expectations about economic population and labor force growth at least additional pressures on federal budget constraints. however, i don't accept the often mention assertion that we have entered a new normal of slower economic growth. policy reforms seeking to create a better tax system, rein in spending, and loosen the regulatory shackles restricting our economy can alter this trajectory by removing some of the structural barriers american workers and businesses face today. in my opinion, a lot of the problems we'd like to solve require us, as policymakers, to look in the mirror and see how current federal government policies are affect

economy is doing well.e are close to our maximum employment goal with a 4.9% unemployment rate and the median estimate among participants of a longer run normal rate of 4.8%. as i've often pointed out and still continue to personally believe my think there is a little more slack in the labor market than one would surmise by looking at the unemployment rate alone. here i'm particularly thinking about abnormally high levels of involuntary part-time employment. in theseen some decline cyclical component of labor force participation. it might be that there remains some cyclical depression. people who become discouraged who could be brought into the labor market. we are close on our maximum employment objective. inflation, while low, there is good reason to believe it is moving up. i cast some doubt on whether or not 1.7% core inflation, how much it shouldn't -- how much one should read. , what is thehat -- fomc'ssment assessment? i assume you're comparing december with march. in a sense, the assessment is not m

economy. he also took questions from lawmakers about the national debt, income inequality and federal regulations. this is an hour and 40 minutes. >>> meeting will come to order. as soon as i turn on my microphone. the committee will come to order. chairman furman, welcome back. we very much appreciate your willingness to come and speak with us following the economic report of the president. it is important for us to understand what is in this and get your take on it and where we are going. it certainly helps us in terms of our policy making decisions going forward. want to welcome you here and thank you for your participation. vice chairman teaberry, ranking member maloney, thank you for your willingness to continue this long-standing tradition we have that the chairman of the council of economic advisors testifies before the joint committee committee. this year marks the 70th anniversary of the council of economic advisors, and the joint economic committee. both of which were created to advi

in the economy.t is ecb day, and we have people focused even more so on that scene. let us check in on the radar. one central banker decided not to give further stimulus to markets, it was the south korean central bank. the south korean currency is increasing after the bank of korea gave no change to its interest rates, against all 31 major peers this morning. at this in on oil prices, at 38.21 on nymex. but that was after some real strength yesterday, the wdi up by 4.9% in yesterday's session in new york. and because of the ecb data, let us check out what is happening with the euro as well. you just had it on your screen. if we can bring back the currency just a show you what is happening with the euro, a little bit more volatility in that currency. thewe are at 1.0978 against dollar. it city bloomberg first word news. priceschina's consumer jumped in february, driven higher by food costs over the new year. pricese 2.3% as food surged by 7.3%. the producer price index fell almost 5%, extending decli

in a shared economy. a stagnating economy for a bunch of millennial who are graduating with a lot of hope and little opportunity this is an outlet for them. there is a story here of people finding opportunity beyond the consumer side and finding opportunity that otherwise wouldn't exist in the traditional environment. >> this is incredible bad economic policy that allowed for the housing bubble to grow, all allowed for the crash, and cut off the recovery. we got people in washington to decided the federal budget is like the family budget. it is not. nonetheless, they go around. it is bipartisan and i will beat up on president obama. he is boasting about reducing the budget and boasting about slowing growth and keeping people from having jobs. i don't think, you know, if you can't fit anything else. if you can work for cash, grab it. we don't have to have a really bad economy. that is a policy decision. i would hate to see laws and regulations made around the idea we will permanently have a really bad econ

he economy is 85% to mexican most is consumer driven. a strongnue to have u.s. economy.is why i am focusing on the global situation. having a stronger global economy now is where the confidence needs to come from. charley: what do you see having inflation over this year and the next? jack: inflation depending on which measure you look at, getting closer to the 2% target people have been looking at, it is not showing any signs of exploding. i think it is a good thing. one of the problems we have in the country is the disparity of incomes and the way to solve that is for there to be some increase in wages in lower levels. charley: you mean raise the minimum wage. jack: i think that is something we should do for the -- as a government. we have been supportive of the proposals. charley: not $15 as some cities have an post. jack: we are supportive of efforts to increase them and wait for it are supportive of actions being taken at the state local level. remainted states will one of the most powerful drivers of the economy. i have said over and over again over the last three y

emerging economies and developing countries account for 40% of the world's economy. in the contributed to a third of the total economic growth in the world. played a critical role in responding to the international financial crisis in 2008. for the past few years indeed, emerging and developing countries encountered great difficulties, some countries with sharp slowing down in the economic growth, even negative growth. asia is home to the largest number of emerging economies. on the whole, there is a good momentum for growth. last year, developing countries 6.5% economic 44% of contribute into the world economic growth. as such, there is every reason for asia to be more confident. of course we need to energize and unleash dynamism and offer new drivers so that not only for asia, but also for the world, economic recovery can play a greater role. we hope that countries across the world could deepen cooperation, and hence macro policy coordination, and stand together against all forms of trade protectionism, in particular in developed countries. developing countries nee

it is a developing economy story. it's an economy in transition. and they are in the middle of one of the greatest reform processes in the history of the world. markets are changing. united nations are changing and that can be disruptive. it happened in the equity and infoxchange markets. >> let's talk about equity market, in america and western counties we associate that with economic performance, is that a fair way to prepare things in china, when we saw double digit growth in china there was no equity movement. now there's huge equity movement and rough markets, didn't really growths. >> when you get you people look at the shanghai market, the schenk zen market almost as if it's on the par with other markets, and it's not. china is a transitional economy. the chinese equity market is where the western market were 30, 40, 50, 70 years ago. to put it on the same level and judge it in the same standard,you'll get critical. that is a long-term reform process, the key question is are they making the changes or not. to give them short-term interventio

economy. those central banks want u.s. economy to bs strong as it possibly can be.t's good for their economies. no matter what's happening with the currencies. scarlet: how much faith do policymakers have in china being just as mindful of the global impact of its decision? when you are operating as a u.s. policy maker, to use the economists word, you have to treat the decision-making as exogenous. it is outside your control. one of many factors out your control and you try to formulate what theyguess about are going to do in those circumstances. it's not always easy to know. what happened in terms of devaluation which was small in some ways was quite a sum rise. -- quite a surprise. alix: we have to leave it there. we will be right back. ♪ ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. mark: i'm mark crumpton. let's get to first word n

that way it creates a real market-based economy. rishaad: that is one of the reasons that the debt trajectory was downgraded by moody's four. ,he other was capital outflows the drawdown in foreign reserves. how much of that is setting off alarm bells? thinkingt know the the between party decisions, because a lot of the decisions are inconsistent. if you are not going to reform, you have to stop the money from leaving. otherwise you will have exposures. why do you want money to flow out when you're not doing things to revive confidence in the economy? these things are not consistent. the government really has to think through, they have to stop the hemorrhaging first. they have to shut the doors. they can think about how we can make the economy sustainable. that is a long process. in the short-term, stop the hemorrhage, stop the money from leaving. up rightmore coming after this break. ♪ rishaad: you are back with "trending business". we have just been talking about china. that is the host country for the g-20. a communiquÉ suggestin

to a consumption oriented economy. this is what we should expect albeit pretty dramatically add numbers in that context. we know the world -- the world economy is relatively weak. it is consistent with subdued global growth. especially with china moving from a cheap exporter come oversupplied to a new focus on consumer. it is a risk off day. anna: not dramatically. >> we have seen much worse risk off days. see the did not people's congress and china setting a target for trade this time around. i read that they missed that target in 2015 and decided not timet one this underscoring how crucial the domestic economy is. we know the negatives around where china is slowing and what that will do to the global trade picture but at the same time we need to see the domestic story in china picking up. are there reasons to be cheerful around domestic china just yet? be a bit auto sales week. that was a sign that consumption is improving. you can go deeper. adidas innike and terms of classic middle level purchases. there, you aren'

even more so than the economy. and in our latest look at small business matters, small business owners have an advocate challenging some of these laws. kate rogers has more from charleston, south carolina. >> so i have flash cards here that i made up. hundreds of them. >> reporter: kimberly billups studied three months to pass the tour guide exam no inn hopes of opening her own business. billups said a city law requiring a 200-question test based on a 500-page book and an oral exam stands in her way. >> the fathers, the authors, the signers of the declaration of independence and the constitution are buried here in our backyard. the hypocrisy of all of this, you know -- i know they're rolling over in their grave. >> reporter: around the country government regulations and red tape have long plagued main street but now would-be entrepreneurs like billups are fighting back with the help of d.c.-based nonprofit law firm the institute for justice, which filed suit on billups' behalf in january. >> there's nothing more fu

economy. all we got to the old marketplace where bad is good news? oliver:. sleep bad news was we missed their jobs number or the wages are creeping up more than expected but if the bad news is the bad news we are looking at with the global economy really slowing down and earnings just collapsing, then i think that is that is that ultimately does that is bad news that ultimately -- that that is bad is that ultimately won't be good news. if they are doing that based on weakness here or at overall concern about global growth, i think that is that event. if you look at -- i think that is bad. if you look at this table, earnings expectations with disorder, it is astounding. i've been on vacation and when i connect i didn't like how far expectations came down for the quarter. alix: this is a big fear, the profit recession idea. the earnings keep getting ratcheted down. quarters with weak earnings growth -- contraction, rather. now you have a quarter you where you are taking 9% contraction and earni

economy continues to do well. second, i would say that while global development to post some downside risks, the risks are not all one-sided. a number of countries including china, the euro area, the bank of japan, have taken measures to stimulate the economy. so there is also upside risk to the economic outlook. and in addition, oil prices have rebounded from their lows and that eases concerns about the financial condition of some energy firms and the stresses facing some oil-producing economies. and at the same time, low oil prices continued to boost household purchasing power. so the our risks, we're attentive to them. we have not described him as unbalanced to the downside. and they are two-sided. one can identify both upside and downside risks here. >> wage growth thus far has been disappointing. it's been very and even. it was disappointing, the figures in the last months jobs report. why do you think that is and how important is sustained wage growth to removing awareness on inflation? >> so i must say i do

about the really talk european economy yet as just one big economy. if you look at strong growth in germany and france, you have problems in spain and italy. look at the you european union, you talk about 28 unemployment rate. the unemployment rate in germany is more positive than that. jon: i was told something a number of years ago. when you are told this time is different, get nervous, but maybe this time is different and we should not debate it. the run of the dollar, dollar-yet, climbing for a seventh straight day. euro-dollar down for a seventh straight day. of thethis on the back fed saying there is the possibility of a rate hike in a goal -- in april that should be put back on the table. we will find out tomorrow is janet yellen validates that stance. matt: there were more dovish statements, recently john williams out saying that we have to take into account what is going on in china and brazil. those economies weigh heavily on the u.s. the fed has a dual mandate here. they have to look at u.s. unemployment and u.s. inflation. and a lot of peo

economy. we appreciate this annual opportunity to engage in dialogue and look forward to discussing this year's economic report. much has been learned over the course of this slow-growth raefr th recovery that we're in. these lessons will only continue for the foreseeable future. the current recovery has been slower than previous expected and subdued expectations about the economic population and labor force growth have placed additional pressures on federal budget constraints. however, i don't accept the often mentioned assertion that we have entered a new normal of slower economic growth. policy reform seeking to create a better tax system, rein in spending and loosen the regulatory shackles restricting the economy can alter this trajectory by removing some of the structural barriers american workers and businesses face today. in my opinion, a lot of the problems we'd like to solve require us as policy makers to look in the mirror and see how current federal government policies are affectsin

economy and it's clear scale.f europe did something really silly from a policy point of view, or from a similar banking failure in europe, if you had a big recession in europe, say a minus 3% economy, the impact would only be about half a percent. anna: even if we saw the banking sector in london getting himself into hot water with high borrowing cost of a which some examples could be short-term impact of brexit, that would be so diluted to not be that important. jim: on the u.s. for that is correct. remember, the u.s. is huge domestic economy. also very global in its trade. one of the other reasons i am pretty structurally positive about the u.s. is that what the u.s. does is in great demand worldwide. just think about what it is. aerospace, software, pharmaceuticals, entertainment content. all of those things are not very price-sensitive. the people want them regardless. the chinese will want their ipads and iphones. they will want the apps that are developed in the u.s.. . they have a stronger position for that

from there today, africa economy -- 10 years of decline in the economy.oday, the african economy is three times larger than we were at other times it sometimes five times. there have been a few countries, growing countries in africa. growing countries in africa. it depends on investment. if i give you an example, the fourth fastest-growing companies are not particularly dependent on commodities. two things, the number of countries who have to make major decisions on reform. a bigger crisis. adjustment is in effect now. erik: why are they so confident they will make these adjustments? those opportunities have come and gone before. >> it is a good policy. it is like a triangle. it is not absolutely deliverable. we have the ability to do ever -- to deliver everywhere. erik: he is hardly alone. the bullish view in africa is shared by industry and government. as i found out in the business and economic summit in cape town. >> what excites me today is the acknowledgment that we need to do things differently, move a lot faster. our populations are growing. we ha

>> we're a major economy, a global economy, and the benefits outweigh the harm done to a cadre of workers. i think the real problem is, we haven't made the public policy choices that we need to make to help the worker. the executive branch, and the legislative branch hasn't taken seriously those workers who have been harmed, really harmed. and decided, here are the public policy choices we're going to make to help them to transition rapidly back to a changing labor market. i think the argument that mr. trump has made to shut down all trade, or to institute barriers and tariffs and pines and fees is not a wise choice because there is -- there are jobs, millions of jobs that result in international trade. and they tend to be higher paying jobs. on average, 18% higher paying jobs, and when you shape those public policy choices, you have to keep in mind that there are winners, as a result of international trade, workers who do win as a result of the international trade, so the public policy has to be a balanced approach. >> well, first of all, my tenure, writing about trade agreements, and i

do you cut the economy or do you invest in the economy? we think you invest in the economy.ut money in the pockets of the middle class and create opportunities to grow. >> you mentioned energy. blackstone's patience on energy has proven wise. now, we see crude trading back at $40. did you miss the window? >> i hope not. no one has been right about projecting energy prices. when oil prices go up, you will have suddenly a lot of companies that were in the process of cutting back that need capital because they can drill wells again, profitably. they don't have access to capital. they don't have access to equity. they will need our capital even when prices go up. i think we will have a lot of activity. >> you do? will it be your most active investment this year? >> yes. erik: we thought it would have been last year. that did not prove to be the case. >> we were lucky we did not do much. but now we have a lot of dry powder and interesting deals. we've started to make transactions already. we just bought a big interest in the largest north sea field. i think we have made great inv

economy. consumers are voting for trump. liz: andy you say two, possibly three rate hikes, why? >> first i will limit it to two. if you look at unemployment numbers, 242,000 jobs added this past month. you had 500 odd thousand household employment increase. got lowest weekly jobless claims in 40 years. the economy is not doing great. in that respect peter is right. but gdp is stumbling along. i got atlanta fed gdp update today, 1.9. no question that the economy is stumbling along. what you saw today with the fed backing off, you saw massive steepening of the yield curve. you saw a weakening of the dollar. you saw increase in polled. that's all supposed to, that is all supposed to happen just like that. right. as fed backs away. i think bigger bazooka by far and away european central bank what they did on thursday by buying corporates and by then allowing banks to have unlimited sources to lend, to consumers and to corporations but not for mortgages. it is going to stimulate the eurozone. it is

dollar, strong economy.ok our growth targets down from 2.8% to 1.5% because of the stronger u.s. dollar, the commodity complex starting to affect growth, and the market has not anticipated that. we saw the rally in the japanese yen, but at this level we think it is an interesting trade to be short japanese yen. we also see the u.s. economy is target isr growth only 1.5%, but we don't think it will fall into recession. jobs, a surgeon jobs, hiring, wage growth negative. what does that mean for march? , it is stillse june. we do not think the rate hike will happen in march. you have the wealth effect from the equity market rebounding, but it has impacted the basic consumer sentiment. we also see the lending standards because of this volatility and the credit spreads are moving up. despite theghtening fed not acting so far, so we think in march they will stay on hold. they still sound a bit hawkish. probably come in the second half of 2016. rishaad: with the job creation, you're meant to get some wage inflation

the economy is only resource-based. ultimately will not be sustainable economy.many ways, i think this is good news. sooner is better than later and i think diversification, at the manufacturing, textiles, many other things, make it far more sustainable. >> when you think about africa, you have to look at it from a long-range view. we go through these cycles. the key is how people react number one, number two is how you are able to continue investing for the long haul. i think that is the key. >> this is a great story about africa. if you look at the kinds of returns we can get on something like a wind power investment, wind farm. i was there yesterday at hope field. there we are looking at a gross return of over 20%, even if you adjust down for a depreciation in currency. you have to say that that net, after all expenses, a return that is well into double digits. on a currently at -- currency adjusted net basis, your still looking at double-digit returns. up next on the africa opportunity. experts the on the very immediate fiscal and committed -- political chall

but the economy still faces challenges. the outlook remains tilted to the downside. -- in relation to developments in the global economy as well as broader geopolitical risks. joining us from pimco, the portfolio manager for germany. guest: hi. mark: how do you explain this turnaround in the markets? initially a sense of jubilation. we have seen a 180 degrees split. why is that? my head onscratching that a little bit, too. i do not think it is the rise in the euro. they of signal to the markets that they believe inflation is going to surge. it is a signal of economic strength. clearly, i think it is dominated by the interest rates, using interest-rate is one of the tools has effectively come to an end. draghi has given the signal that interest rates as a tool is exhausted. i really think we will see -- quantitiessignaling of what it buys, government bonds, nonfinancial or print bonds -- that will be the heavy lifting on easing going forward. i think that those quantities will dominate. i do not see the signs that growth and

the real economy. i don't think that is happening to the extent they think is happening. what you sawat, and what i said five minutes ago in terms of pensions, it hampers long-term liability and makes them less credit worthy. scarlet: as we look to the man says thejohn hermi fed continues to disregard the remarks. tom: i love what chris said. the idea of a fed that is really moving away from messages from a number of [indiscernible] mike showed this earlier. what i want to know, bill gross, 2%.he blue band -- it's at richard earlier making clear that it is a diminished view versus where the fed is. when will the fed catch up with what you've written for janice capital are what we hear from professor clarida? bill: they are catching up. the dots are coming down closer to work. i think in a historical sense, based on the taylor rule, based on the phillips curve, the interest rates in a normalized fashion deserve in this market and in this economy 3% to 4%. they think that, if inflation gets up to 2% or e

they wrecked the economy, created that instability. we have been building a strong economy. that's what we've got to stick with. >> thank you, mr. speaker. unemployment is half since 2010. [shouting] given that they will make the signature can the prime minister usher the house he will continue to support quality education, employment generation to get jobs so maintaining a conservative laughter of aspiration? >> my honorable friend is right. the school to improve the program we are driving forward combined with uncap university places come investing in apprenticeships, that is giving people a ladder of opportunity to make the most of their lives of the most that employment opportunities that are being beg created in a country where there are 2 million more people in work. i know he has a particular interest in his constituency in extending the robin hood line. that's exactly this sort of infrastructure project this government wants to get behind. >> thank you, mr. speaker. mr. speaker, the refugee crisis is the biggest issue facing governments right across europe. is the pr

stay with us throughout the morning on america's economy on our job economy. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ francine: near new york, let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. >> thanks, francine. the richest man in china is creating the world's largest chain of movie theaters. a.n.c. entertainment has agreed to buy the cinema for $1.1 billion in cash. a.n.c. is controlled by the wonder group. the deal would combine the second and fourth largest movie chains in the u.s. technology are preparing to sign their $6 billion takeover agreement, according to people familiar with the matter. sharp's need for financial support set off a takeover battle between fox con and innovation network of japan. and job cuts are on the way at two of wall street's biggest investment banks. according to people familiar with the matter, goldman sachs will cut more than 5% of traders and sales people in its fixed income business. that's a bigger cut than the normal nearly firings of low performers. meanwhile, bank of america will dismiss about 150 trading and investment

the services economy is around 3%, goods economy, about minus one, and that is the average you get.ichael, help our guests explain this. here is the dot plot. i call it a game of thrones. this is the king's landing battle in season three. on kidding. the red line is the market and the green line, there are people like richard trying to guess where we are going. look at the red line, it comes down. these are the vigilantes like ira jersey going after richard clarida and the rest of them. watch how the red line widens out. this gap is stunning. michael: interest rate swaps in the red, in the green is the median of the fed. ira, that redline has never matched green line, and the dots continually change, so why do you guys on trading desks care, why is it such a big deal? ?ra: the dot plot it is not anymore. when it first came out, we had something to pin our hats on, the fed is promising to do this, they will be hiking at this pace -- but it became pretty clear within a couple of quarters that it really didn't matter. and it doesn't. is the market or the fed right? probably somewhere i

economy. perhaps the risk becomes balanced again. remember in january, in the statement, the fed said it couldn't judge if the risk to the upside or downside -- which way they were because of the uncertainty in the global environment. does it drop those global concerns from the statement? we're looking for the fed to bring down its rate forecast, the average fomc member looking for four rate hikes this year. the market looking for two or even fewer than that. we'll see if they come down to three and have a meeting of the minds between the markets and the federal reserve. tyler, the key will be the data the fed will say 100 times. what we're looking for is continued strong job growth and inflation for the market has centered around this notion of a june rate hike, where 70% of the respondents of the cnbc fed survey see that happening. but possibly as early as april or may if those inflation numbers keep coming in strong like they have in the past two months. >> what would be the surprise to you

economy. retail sales are heading .ackwards some silver lining on residential's real estate sales, they are picking up there. vonnie: we never heard from governor zhou much before. how much influence does he have on you collect bank governors and business leaders in china? enda: he is a very powerful man. we are seeing more of him, and that is a deliberate strategy on their behalf, both to improve communications and sell a message. china is selling a message of stability. over the weekend, he was trying to maybe manage expectations a little bit. but when you consider the growth target that they have set notselves, few people do really think that the central bank will not have to cut rates more. one problem that he faces among convincing his fellow officials in china, is that interest rates are not really having the impact they once had in china. the transmission mechanism is not flowing through the economy the way it once did your it even though the central bank can cut interest rates further,

that steel capacities 70% outside the economy much of an economy that have made very heavy state investments supporting their steel industries. so capacity has collided with a collapse in worldwide demand for a range of commodities and products including steel and the result has been a 35% decline decline in steel prices in 2015. that is having a significant impact on our industry and on your stay. we have as you said taken 149 anti- dumping actions, 40 in in 2015 alone. as the highest rate of action in at least 14 years. that has contributed to the fact that steel imports are down 13% over the last year. we are going to continue to rigorously enforce our trade laws including taking advantage of some of the new tools that congress gave us with customs enforcement bill that the president signed last week. it's important to understand that domestic trade enforcement is an important part of the answer but coordination is also critical. u.s. imports represent only 10% of global exports and we need to be working together with other countries both steel importing countries who are dealing with the

the young generation wants to see a growing economy.hat's what excites me. >> africa is increasingly stable. it's increasingly democratic and it's increasingly willing to work with the private sector and create reform that is good for the business environment in africa is a continent, not a country, so there are wide variations on what i just said. but this is an agency that is focused on partnering with african countries and countries around the globe that are committed to governments and are willing to undertake these reforms. for example, we are working in ghana and cote d'ivore. there's infrastructure on the continent over a decade and increasingly working in energy under president obama's power africa initiative. partners, weto our are seeing tough reforms. i mentioned the idea that we need cap more transparency, independent regulators, for .xample, and the energy space we are seeing movement on this. >> what we are trying to help country by country is to develop data sets they need to make a compelling argument for foreign direct

how can it affect the rest of the economy? i think what we've learned over the past eight, nine years his interconnections matter and in particular in the case of housing, it wasn't just the actual act of building housing, but the fact people owned assets that were involved in housing warehouse says and that assets were derived or derivatives have their value on the basis. the case of greece, lots of private individuals had asset there issued by the greek government or by a greece private individuals. and so, those holdings lose value as you think they are less able to pay. there is a big ramification for people's portfolios over substance of that wealth. that is one instance. in the case of greece, there was another set of concerns, one of which is that the hero was built on the concept that no government could default. every government was going to embark on the path of sustainable finances. the very fact a country was in your area would get into trouble and none would have to be valid out, which is again -- that is put out

there is an indicator that we have built that looks at china's old economy versus china's new economyk transportation. the old economy is freight traffic. a lot of that is basic materials. the new transportation is truck's, which are taking consumer goods and services, goods and products, to retail. that is growing rapidly. the old stuff is now contracting. i think to the degree that a lot of people's measurement of china and economic activity is based on the old measures because that is where it was, it is not really appropriately measuring what is new. it is in fact doing pretty well. francine: they are also talking about a shrinkage of offshore renminbi deposits. do you think that china will have no choice but to devalue the yuan longer-term? david: china's effective exchange rate has risen by about 40% since 2007 and about 20% since 2013. that is obviously -- that has obviously had a negative impact on their trade. late ins much too addressing the appreciation of renminbi. of the because they took their time about it, when they first began to reverse this in august, nobody knew wh

economy is very similar to other economies that have similar regulatory trajectories, so i don't think there's a very important factor in explaining this macrophenomenon. >> thank you, my time is expired. mr. beyers recognized for five minutes. >> thank you, mr. chairman. the report notes, quote, while the investment has been low the rate to payouts to shareholders in the nonfinancial firms in the share of dividends and net share buybacks is rising. returning nearly half of the funds that could be used for investment to stockholders. one possible explanation provided by the report is that, quote, the rise in pay as to shareholders may be related to the decline in the start-up rate as young firms are more likely to reinvest their cash flow than mature firms. higher share of funds returned to shareholders suggests firms had more cash than they thought they could profitably reinvest. however, the rise in share buybacks predates current economic circumstances. senator baldwin among others has pointed to a 1982 s.e.c. rule that provided for a safe harbor for manipulation liability at the be

with respect to the economy, one of the things that canada and the united states share is a commitment to a free market. i believe and i know justin does as well, that a market-based economy not only has proven to be the greatest engine for prosperity the world has ever known, but also underwrites our individual freedoms in many ways, and we value our business sector and we value entrepreneurship, but what we're seeing across the developed world, and this will have manifestations in the developing world is the need for more inclusion in growth, making sure that it's brood-based, making sure that people are not left behind in a globalized economy, and that's a big idea for the united states and canada to work together on, along with our other partners. if we don't get this right, if we do not make sure that the average canadian, or the average american has confidence that the fruits of their labor, their -- the -- the opportunities for their children are going to continue to expand over time, if they see societies in which a very few are going better and better, and the middle class and