the most detectable reason the economy is slowing, we shifted to this fragile economy, business investment, businesses have substantial capacity, not enough potential for growth or hope for future growth the business investment has fallen significantly. in the last three quarters, private domestic investment fell 2.3% annualized, 3.3% annualized, 9.7% annualized. all three are negative. businesses are not investing because they don't have a lot of hope for the future of the economy. they are investing as they need to but not enough to expand capacity or get the economy going and the trend is accelerating and that is why the economy is doing so poorly. that is why you have higher potential, you need more business investment. you can expect further degradation of the estimate going forward. the potential side is productivity. labor productivity not growing, 1% is what you might think of as being baseball season is equivalent of the mendoza line. it is basically batting 200 or less and if you are batting at 200 your career is not long. that is the mendoza line for productivity, we have been w

there are no accomplishments in this economy. the only one they can point to is the stock market going up. and i clap for obama on that. that's about to come down if interest rates go up. >> final word. thank you, gary. and thanks everybody. cavuto on business about 20 minutes from now. neil, what have you got? >> donald trump looks like president taft. we've got the skinny on all the unhealthy accusations on the campaign trail. let's just say both sides need a healthy dose of reality. >>> and it's not just the candidates promising more spending, what a lame duck congress is planning that will have you fuming. we'll see you soon. >> thanks, neil. we can't wait. >>> but up here first, donald trump trying to woo working families, touting his new child care policy. but hillary clinton is slamming his proposal as half baked. so who has the best policy to work for you? we debate. you decide. and you're talking to youro doctor about your medication... this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from

economy or the global economy? betty: the global economy. stephen: i think the fed will increase rates. this is been a topic of numbing boredom to me. [laughter] betty: for years. stephen: one small increase in three years. thancupies more headspace almost anything i have heard about. betty: you try not to think about it? stephen: not much, because i know that the u.s. economy is not particularly strong. and central banks who are aware that there is no fiscal cooperation in the united states for years -- they are the only protocol, the only people that can do anything. so they know if they must play -- misplay their hand and put the u.s. in a recession, this could be a disastrous outcome for them. so i always knew that. you know the people, they are not politically unastute. it is on them. so their desire to be aggressive and potentially have a bad outcome is very low, so that is a reason that all of these people keep saying the fed could increase interest rates. we are wrong. we will have a new president and we are going to have a new congr

the economy is struggling.another commodity -- economy like brazil, you have to suggest that the russian economy has come through this adjustment in commodity prices and export prices then a brazil has. in that context, they are more stable. francine: when you look at foreign relations and the way that vladimir putin has acted, is it easily explained given the collapse of the price of oil and the troubles that the russian economy has been through? >> i don't think there is any doubt that there are economy has gone through a huge recession and there is a tendency on the part of policymakers to shore up their support in other ways. 1.i want to make is the russian economy is going to do decently better over the next year. the commodity price shock is fading. some of the hit from the sanctions will be fading. one thing we have to be careful about is that we do not want to look at current economic and drive that view without an underlying structure. it is dependent on commodities. it has huge issues on structural re

economy barely growing this year.ell, i'm just going to do more of what president obama did to get us through the weak road. >> the other more we are going to lower the corporate tax rate, make it easier for production and innovation and all that. obviously, we a lot of us here think, gosh, a progrowth tax plan and economic plan is much better, however, you know, most people aren't necessarily looking at that. they are looking at the candidate up on stage and behind the podium and who do i trust with the economy and the trust factor is really character. they maybe are not looking at policy specifics and more on the temperament. anything donald trump can do from mercedes' point of view showing he has temperament and character. dagen: he took big steps and terrorism is the second concern, the number two concern for voters. donald trump remains adamant that mÉxico will pay for the wall. here is what trump said on the o'reilly factor last night. >> we have to stop the drug trafficking, the human trafficking, you look at w

economy.s like we haven't had one in longer than seven years, and we're about to head into a next presidential term. how would you advise the next president, and where do you think the economy is right now, sirsome. >> just to make it clear, on average we've had them every seven years since world war ii. the last recession ended in june of 2009. the next president of the united states will have to face a couple of issues. number one, the economy is slowing down for quite some time. we have been averaging under president obama about 2% growth, but this year we'll probably be less than 2%. second, we have a need for infrastructure spending. infrastructure spending has been way down, and we don't really have as much money for that as we should get. third, there's really a need for tax reform. we haven't had tax reform since 1986, and we're way overdue for that. and we have to deal with the trade issues. so i think the next president, whoever he or she might be, has to deal with trade, infrastruct

the most detectable reason the economy is slowing, we shifted to this fragile economy, is business investment. businesses have substantial capacity. not enough potential for growth or hope for future growth the business investment has fallen significantly. in the last three quarters, private domestic investment fell 2.3% annualized, 3.3% annualized, 9.7% annualized. all three are negative. and larger than the quarter before. businesses are not investing because they don't have a lot of hope for the future of the economy. they are investing as they need to but not enough to expand capacity or get the economy going and the trend is accelerating and that is why the economy is doing so poorly. that is why you have higher potential, you need more business investment. you can expect further degradation of the estimate going forward. another way to look at all of that, the potential side is labor productivity. bottom --ng up the dark line at the bottom is zero. that is where it is not growing. 1% is what you might think of as being baseball season is equivalent of the mendoza line. it is basically b

what you have here is an economy where labor markets are tightening some, the economy is too fragile as evidenced by the reluctance to normalize monetary policy further. but the labor markets are strengthening as the economy is quite fragile. this is an odd circumstance to be thankful for this kind of job growth. i wonder how much longer we can expect that to continue. not just because we will not have employees to draw from the unemployed pool but because there will not be enough strength to justify the hiring going forward. one or two things has to happen. either the economy have to pick up for reasons we could not now anticipate or job growth has to slow. that is the state of the labor market. now i will turn it over. mr. johnson: thank you. in case you want to see it again. i will give you mine. good thing we did not go through all of those. >> we can pull of the other file -- pull up the other file. >> the ab guy. a file on the computer. mr. foster: there is one kind of room. mr. johnson: thank god. i could do it on my fax machine. in the past i have talked about a lot of the be

but the global economy and the u.s. economy have changed a lot and history doesn't always replay itself. many of those of us sitting around thewe need to operate ban forecasts. table, we learned the lesson that if policy is not forward-looking that inflation can pick up to highly undesirable levels, that inflation expectations can be dislodged upward and as a consequence of that can be endemic lay higher inflation, which is very costly to reduce. absolutely none of us want to relive an episode like that. believe my colleagues, that it was important to be forward-looking, and we won't make that mistake again. that the structure of the economy changes, things change, the nature of the inflation process has changed significantly since the bad days of the 1970's when the fed had to face this chronic high inflation problem. we have seen inflation respond less to the economy, to movements in the unemployment rate, that the phillips curve has become flatter and that is something we need to factor into our decision-making. infl

economy, as we look ahead, are we need to grow the economy faster. there are various ways you can think about doing that. but there are some obvious ways that we are not doing. we are not modernizing our infrastructure, roads, bridges, highways, train systems, sewer systems -- whatever. all of those need to be modernized. it would create some jobs in the process and some not bad paying jobs. infrastructure is essential to looking at the future, as is development of the skills of the workforce, staying on the forefront of science. that does not tell you exactly what you should spend it for. you should spend it well and on sensible projects. we don't always do that. that is the question we ought to be talking about. the other big threat that we are not talking about at all -- maya keeps trying -- if we go on doing what we are doing in the federal budget, we are facing a growing debt, and one that is growing quite rapidly looking down the line. why is that? we have an aging population and we are committed to social security benefits, but more importantl

he says, quote, one could argue that the american small business economy is the american economy. do you agree that small business is where the u.s. and nevada's economy begin? >> i do. i truly agree with that. i think that they are really the front lines to rebuilding the economy and continuing to build the economy. i know that many of our small businesses in our community are really the center focus, not only commerce, but also for our local government. they do understand that there are some concerns that they have, and they want to help them be the best they can. >> you know, mr. abney, regarding small businesses becoming big businesses, you know, some hopeful words to our home-based entrepreneurs in the reno-sparks area and, of course, in southern nevada and in our rural communities as well. consider apple computer started in a garage. facebook started in a dorm room. isn't that right? >> sam walton's five-and-dime store in northwest arkansas, right, became walmart. and so i think a lot of small business owners have those dreams of becoming a bigger business owner and becoming

they say the economy will slow this year. maybe the economy is not as strong as some might assume.owered their forecast in last year you had election risk and that creates volatility. investments would be delayed because of that. people talk about how the japanese economic situation may be the future for central banks. boj each artist new territory and monetary tools that the fed should consider down the road? that exactly the lessons that governor brainard indicated in her speech was that the lessons from japan are lessons that are relevant for the fed today. the u.s. could get in a situation where it has a 2% is struggling to push inflation up and it's struggling to gain credibility with markets and wage and price setters and inflation continues year.l sh year after a clear target of 2% and they are fully committed to achieving that. achieving that target could easily mean they follow a policy where there is some modest overshooting. i don't think they should be scared of that. she was framing out the nuances of what they were doing and i was stunned that she said one of the risk

economy is doing. growth was weak in the first half of the year, we're seeing evidence that the economy is now expanding more strongly. as i mentioned, payroll gains in recent months have been solid, averaging around 180,000 per month which is less than the pace in 2015, but as i mentioned, it's well above what's needed to provide jobs for new entrants into the labor force, over time. the unemployment rate is pretty close to most estimates of its longer run equilibrium value. but as i mentioned that rate and other measures of labor utilization are little changed since the beginning of the year. i don't see that as bad news because it may reflect that the strong labor market is attracting people from outside the labor force back into employment. the labor force participation rates increased on balance since late last year. it is on a declining demographic trend and the fact that it increased shows substantial number of people that are being attracted into the labor market. the employment to population r

what you have here is an economy where labor markets are tightening some, the economy normalize monetarythe labor markets are strengthening as the economy is quite fragile. this is an odd circumstance to be thankful for this kind of job growth. i wonder how much longer we can expect that to continue, not just because we will not have employees to draw from the unemployed pool but because there will not be enough strength to justify the hiring going forward. one or two things has to happen. either the economy have to pick up for reasons we could not now anticipate or job growth has to slot. now i will turn it over. thank you.: in case you want to see it again. i will give you mine. good thing we did not go through all of those. file --ull of the other pull up the other file. the ab guy. a file on the computer. ok. mr. foster: there is one kind of room. mr. johnson: think god. god.ank i could do it on my fax machine. in the past i have talked about a lot of the benefits employers have provided on labor day, and i will spend a little more time on that. it tends not to be exciting news but i

and if you can't grow america's economy, you cannot grow the family economy. so all this happy talk coming out of the administration, try to convince the eight million americans who don't have a job, that this is a good economy. try telling that to the six million americans who want to work full time but can only find part-time employment. mr. chairman, tell that to the 94 million americans who are out of the work force entirely. so many have just given up, never being able to find any type of gainful employment in this economy. again, it is falling so far short of its potential. all across america, american families are worrying how are they going to pay the bills, how are they going to pay the mortgage, how are they going to be able to pay their skyrocketing health care premiums under obamacare. and we must, we must get this economy moving again but, mr. chairman, our great challenge is the job engine of america is broken and the job engine is small business. and one of the primary challenges for small business is they cannot access capital. right now bank l

economy? >> the greek example, there have an other examples in 2011 into to do it, i was familiar with what the bank was doing, where strains in the eurozone and potential stability in the eurozone were more broadly impacted confidence, financial conditions, and the stance of policy, financial stability in terms of the capital rates and banks. reason and i am not endorsing for obvious reasons these scenarios, but if for error -- for whatever reason, more cute instability wech is from the eurozone, would be very transparent in terms of whether we felt that was affecting the skew of risk, whether we felt it influenced individual views in terms of policy that should be taken, and whether the financial policy had issues, wevising could talk about specific institutions but if we felt institutions should build additional buffers or take business actions accordingly, we would do so. not saying we am are contemplating any of those things, nor my making any , but if we did feel something was that could

it is the highest deficit among the world's 20 used economies. -- biggest economies. in hong kong.f: it is 830 in dubai. are going to be talking a lot about central bank policy in the u.k. because mark carney will be in the hot seat. he is the governor of the bank of england and he will be facing u.k. lawmakers, the governor testified for the first time since britain voted to quit the european union. he is the one to watch in terms of the interrogator of our carney, he is leading the charge inc. -- accusing the rank of releasing stimulus without sufficient evidence. his secretary will be there by two officials.ll lots of questions will be asked of them as to whether they are reconsidering their recently revised weaker assessment of the u.k. economy in the light of some of the data that has come out by the sentiment measures. since theyebounded got the brexit vote. we will be looking for any clues there. they will want to get an assessment and markets will be interested to hear whether the members of the mpc are testifying or have had a tothink see in -- re-think give more stimulus.

economy is a service-oriented economy. there is a lot of concern related to brexit.ut definitely, the w eaker sterling is helping and the fact that the bank of england has been proactive will provide some buffers for the economy. manus: thanos vamvakidis, thank you. he stays with us. anna: we digest a deluge of data from japan, the first brother look from a change in tax from the boj. lots of detail coming out today. how exactly they want to shake that curve in the bond market. we know they want to keep the 10 year at 10%, but what about the rest of it? manus: equity markets are shaken, but they are reconsidering the risks associated with deutsche bank. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back, everybody. this is "countdown." in tokyo, we see little or against the yen, 101.8. on.0 her e in lond a new addition of a break is now available on your bloomberg and on your mobile. the cover story, no surprise. manus: it is pervasive. the 10 players of course, who will be involved in what happens to deutsche bank is the front story, isn't it? anna: about 10 hedge funds have c

economy. some of the momentum is pretty flat.hikes to do before the economy starts slowing. mark: they say the economy will slow this year. just one hike. by that alone the economy is not as strong as some might assume. >> they have lowered their forecasts and the economy is lowering and election risk and that creates volatility. investment decisions would be delayed because of that. joe: people talk about how the japan economic situation may be the future for central banks. in europe and the u.s. has the boj each artist new territory and monetary tools that the fed should consider down the road in another easing cycle? >> i would say that exactly the lessons that governor brainard emphasized in her speech 10 days ago was that the lessons from japan are lessons that are relevant for the fed today. the extent to which the u.s. could get in a situation where it has a 2% target but it is really struggling to push inflation upward and it's struggling to gain credibility with markets and wage and price setters and inflation continues

looking at the economy, the economy hit every target they set and we have inappropriate level of interesttorting asset marks, blowing bubbles and will end up in inflation. causing long-term harm for no short-term good here. that's good enough -- >> is anybody on our panel feel that they have heard this message before? that's -- as i'm listening to it, i was expecting them to, you know -- i feel like i heard this before. >> it is better, it is getting better, the pot getting warmer. >> tyler this is the language -- >> they went to the -- they went to the concept of risking the imbalance in 2015 and several months later hiked it the next possible press conference. that would be the only reason for them to wait until december. but if you read the statement, it is going to be very hard for them again to justify no hike in november, especially for a fed that insisted that every meeting is live. >> and, steve, there will be another -- should be another three dissents in november, right? >> if they don't hike. >> if they don't hike. that's how the logic goes. i agree with that. i think there is

with the original role of the financial sector to support the real economy roared dash economy. where there is a giant concede our there is more ready to be made to give the spread and the financial markets rather than investing on the real business. so what do we do? wobble so what are those recommendations by. >> i do have a solution chapter in my book but it is a broader way below dash broad array. one i do start to the first biggest to change the narrative. of the east coast policy-making circles was that the financial markets are at the center of everything. so you have to save the banks. with the argument in dyewood flip that the financial markets are services phone -- are meant to serve other industries. so what has happened and only the financial sector and in many cases by one of the chapters of about with how volatile they have become with the physical commodities that could be illegal to own half of the world's aluminum. you may have read the wonderful front-page year times story to quarter the world of limited market that are out there to prevent people for basic bus

economy.anus: speaking in nevada last night, john williams said he sees an increase "sooner rather than later." owen, chiefs david european economist at jefferies international. everything hangs on the words. differentis no talking upbeat economy,. what we have here, have a look at this, the nonmanufacturing dropping off. it is a trifecta of disappointment. how concerned are you about the slowdown in the united states of america? david: not concerned at this point. obviously, the data from august level were seasonally adjusted, but we are talking the u.s. economy will keep on growing and the fed will likely raise interest rates into december.and we know september was unlikely. but we will not. obviously a lot of, talk about the feds raising interest rates, but we get the rate rise coupled with major stimulus from the bank of japan. obviously, raining back on both things. but the interesting thing was williams, he did publish an interesting letter a few weeks ago, highlighting that the real equ

economy is doing. growth was weak in the first half of the year we are seen evidence that the economy is now expanding more externally. as i mentioned payroll gains in recent months have been solid averaging around hundred $80,000 per month which is less than the pace in 2015 but as i mentioned it's well above what is needed to provide jobs for new entrants into the labor force overtime. the unemployment rate is pretty close to most participants estimates of its long equilibrium a value. but as i mentioned that rate and other measures of labor utilization are little change since the beginning of the year. i don't see that as bad news because it may reflect the strong labor market that is attracting people from outside the labor force back into employment. the participation rates increase is on a declining demographic trend and the fact that it has increased shows substantial number of people being contracted. the employment to population ratio is also continuing to increase. we were not certain that th

economy slipping into such a situation. downside risk is also present in a emerging market economy.undergoing a challenging transition because of the adjustment cost along that path and demographic trends. chinese growth will -- will likely continue to slow, given -- this township could pose risk, chinese authorities have made some progress on clarifying the policy stance and capital outflows have slowed in recent months. nonetheless, considerable uncertainty remains and volatility cannot be ruled out, which could reverberate globally. headwinds from abroad should matter because markets are tightly in a graded, and adverse foreign shocks are more powerfully transmitted to the u.s. today than previously. research suggests that changes in expectations of the path of policy in the united states relative to other major economies leads to exchange rate movements that appear to be several times higher than they were several years ago. the fact that many advanced economies are suffering from deficient demand and have policy rates at or near zero and that the u.s. dollar is a favored safe h

in one sense, the largest economy. two years ago i thought to myself the fed will normalize, raise rates gradually. clearly it has at the longer end of the yield curve. the dollar clearly is the core asset and everyone's portfolio. i am sure when you breathe in the air, you breathe this in. when you look at public service and what you have done with treasury, you work at blackrock. i am fascinated what you think about the fed meeting today and the one in december, and the bank financial system. ignore theellen impact on global commercial crexendo, clearly -- , negative interest rates are clearly bad for the banking system. world, tension in the and the question i would ask, the theory that the natural rate of interest is so low is a very stylized idea. it has no basis in the yield curve. i do not think it works through the substitution effect. that is if we keep rates low, people feel they need to save more. maybe it works through the exchange rate. it is a deeply held belief that the central bankers and macroeconomist

she said we are struggling to understand what is going on in the economy. asked why the fed has been so far away from the markets. it does not fit their models. trying to figure that out. they are really taking a democratic approach here. theeconomy is getting to point where you should move, but we do not have to quite yet and let's wait and see what happens. tom: a lot of nuance. the tone i saw was the idea this was a more hawkish statement. bill gross did not get a rate increase. but before we go to mr. gross. it was clearly a more hawkish tone. they all wanted a rate increase. >> the last time we saw three different inwas that the fed is setting us up for a december move. no question. whether or not you get one will depend on the data and chair yellen said there are a lot of things that cap including a presidential election between now and then. tom: people talking about wells fargo and the presidential election. william gross puts money where mouth is. she was framing out at one point the nuances of what they were stunned she said we could cause a reces

it is the biggest piece of the economy.ank of england has to step back from further stimulus measures because of the resilience of the u.k. economy. the britishme to pound index, the measure of sterling against a basket of currencies. it has had a run on the third week -- on a third week. regaining more than half the by the sharpted vote to leave the eu. vonnie: nothing has changed all that much. expectations of a hike has gone down. the dollar index, we are right back where we were at the beginning of the week. hadtwo-year yield, it dipped to 74 basis points and now we're back up to 80 basis points again. if you look at the two sent spread, no significant movement. about 3% today following a really crushing week for crude oil. .he dow is up not quite the rally we are seeing in europe. as the s&p 500 is up 4/10 of 1%. go to the nasdaq in midtown manhattan. the nasdaq is moving higher, all session highs up 4/10 of 1%. and rising for the second straight day. at the bloomberg terminal and it is up over 3% right now. it is the

economy. we have loads of things to go through. of all, the economy grew 0.7% in the second quarter. that is a better-than-expected figure. it is more than was previously estimated. so, that u.k. economy in the 0.7%.d quarter up then we have the current account deficit at 5.9% of gdp for the second quarter. lve deeper into some of the data that has come to through the month of july. the index of services much better than expected. we were expecting months on months of 0.1%. it has come up at 0.4%. and also we had a revision for the earlier month. that july figure, ro servic-- for services. the pound 1.2967. the brexit stories that matter this week. let's get to markus karlsson. marcus: the bank of england began its corporate bond buying on monday. bonds of bae systems were among those purchase. the central bank plans to buy 10 billion pounds worth of corporate debt over 18 months. meanwhile, the deputy government of the bank of england defended this to me this measures the central bank took in august. speaking at a bloomberg most i

is a large economy, a g-20 economy 87 economy but it also has to do with the broader concept of europeinds of deals are being struck with europe going forward including the negotiations with the u.s.? which become more complicated when one important interlocutor like the u.k. is no longer going to be conceivably a member of the eu after 2019. the -- so this adds uncertainty. the last thing we need in this difficult context. is theresa may's first global summit. major global summit as prime minister of the u.k. it is important for her to set the ground of the uk's global role post-brexit. she did mention on her way here that she had some doubts about key promises made by members of her cabinet who were campaigning for brexit including ape it's a-based immigration system and leading in a single market. here in china, she is dealing with tom anger from the chinese government. she delayed the approval of key chinese investments in her country. shery ahn, at the g-20 summit winding down. we will check back with you. -- nearing abt is level that may trigger moody to downgrade its rating. wha

is doing great. >> we turned around a declining economy. thanks, obama. >> wages increased 5.2% from 2014 to 2015, a huge jump for certain. the poverty rate dropped a substantial 1.2%. these numbers appear to be good news for the middle class. but let's add some context to these claims. the truth is, it's been a rough decade for the middle class. in 2014, the poverty rates skyrocketed to a near historic high of nearly 15%. so a drop of 1% is good, but dropping from such an elevated level remains a major concern for america. wages have remained years and even with the reported jump, wages are still 1.6% below the level they were in 2007 nearly a decade ago. the bottom line, the economy has squeezed the american middle class for ten years, under presidents bush and obama. we've seen urban plight our major cities have experienced. in detroit, abandoned homes number in the tens of thousands. in baltimore where poverty is still soaring at 23%. and unemployment among young african-americans is a staggering 26%, five times the national rate. to ch

we also have to make the economy fairer. that starts with raising the national minimum wage and also guarantee finally equal pay for women's work. i also want to see more companies do profit sharing. if you help create the profits, you should be ab executives at the top. and i want us to do more to support people who are struggling to balance family and work. i've heard from so many of you about the difficult choices you face and the stresses that you're under. so let's have paid family leave. earned sick days. let's be sure we have affordable childcare and debt-free college. how are we going to do it? we're going to do it and close the corporate loopholes. finally we tonight are on the stage together, donald trump and i. donald, it's good to be with you. we're going to have a debate where we are talking about the important issues facing our country. you have to judge us. who can shoulder the immense, awesome responsibilities of the presidency? who can put into action the plans that will make your life better? i hope that i

economy, barton the forecaster.t: i just do not know if i have learned anything at all. the scale, the size of the fall that we saw starting in june, immediately after the referendum vote, followed by a bigger bounce now -- where does that leave me? that tells me the effects of the referendum will come through as a result of an extremely long period of uncertainty while we try to hash out a deal. expect anything to happen the first three or four months to tell us anything about anything. mark: does this tell us mark carney is in for a tricky ride when he testifies before the treasury parliamentarians on wednesday, some who are brexiteers, and some might say -- was it necessary, or the stimulus you pumped into the economy in august? kit: if he does -- he does not want any advice for me -- mark: give him advice. kit: i would just run run as a, turn around and say, "well, you would not know what would've happened if i had not done that." mark: is that it, then? is suggest and was in august we do take breakdown of littl

effect on the economy. host: ok. and just a programming note, we'll be talking more about the federal debt and the deficit in our next segment. up next, we have gene. you favor one-party government. why is that? caller: well i didn't used to. i have seen what it has done to the people, how it's divided the people. democratic urrent party is. for 40 years, i was a member and i have seen the most egregious ungodly legislation. the worst was a bill and i have learn that many people out there don't know what that means. it means if a baby survives an abortion, they kill it. these people, you democrats stop that bill. what kind of example are we setting for our young people when human life doesn't matter? this party, the party that -- the democrat party they belong to for 40 or 50 years seems to have lost its moral compass. i don't blame people on both sides. i blame the party that's in charge. and if anybody thinks that they are not, they are wrong. host: the republicans are in control of congress now. you thin

economy but for the world economy as a whole. add to theoes that u.s.ebt play out when it comes to treasury -- treasuries or the outlook of the fixed income markets? would have two competing forces if we think that the protectionism can lead to a recession. all would mean lower rates other things being equal. on the other hand, you would --e fiscal laxity unprecedented -- and that would push rates higher. mark: let us talk about brexit. we talk about the economic effects of brexit. and the political effects are still being felt. weekslava takes place this where you leaders will meet for the first time without the u.k. isseems as if the u.k. steadily moving towards knowing what it wants but it is still unclear. will it be -- will there be more rhetoric coming from u.k. leaders saying -- let us invoke article 50 quickly? her spokespeople, theresa may, said that by april next year. that is the message on that score. and clearly, rushing into a negotiation that is this crucially important for the u.k. and europe would be a big mistake. everyone wins from ta

economy.e futures we see and we see detailed numbers this morning, the volume numbers look pretty boy it, because you are doing a big negative inflation. take that price and you see sluggish underlining trends in cash spending. manus: one of the arguments we had earlier, the slightly hire, and if that gets passed on, not happening in sweden, do you think british copies will about the same process and not pass through those inflationary spikes? ross: i think we will see a temporary relatively sharp rise in inflation, not serving to materialize around the turn of the year. was stable.ined cpi we are only seeing the beginning of energy and food prices, but the early part of the new year a lot of retailers, are hedging that current exposure is hatched until after christmas, the end of the year. early 2017, suddenly cost will rise quite sharply in sterling, and we will then see how much of a pound there is. there will be some, but i think it will be temporary. we see inflation third quarter i-17, g