ed hyman will continue with us.l have this, you know, been busting your chops this conundrum and enigma in the sum of all our fears. in the real world you read the people that you choose to read. that is what ed hyman has done over the many years. lisa: the conundrum wrapped in an enigma is a butchered version of winston churchill. tom: are these elements of 39? lisa: that's the question, right? a moment of potential pivotal changes and hopefully not the same kinds as 1939. tom: we will continue with ed hyman, our annmarie hordern mint -- annmarie hordern didn't is in warsaw throughout the day. lisa: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, i'm lisa mateo. the release of the federal reserve minutes are likely to show how much support there is for larger interest rate hikes. wilmore officials consider a 50 point hike? the tone could hint at how policymakers are interpreting recent data on inflation. the european union cutting the natural gas demand this winter by 1/5, meaning a voluntary 15% goal to he

ed hyman we will back. . i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this.glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. (soft music) elevate your body and mind with aerotrainer. ♪ by combining the benefits of pilates, yoga, and spinal stabilization, the aerotrainer creates a therapeutic movement experience unlike any other. de-stress and feel your best with aerotrainer. ♪ ro incomprehensible maria: joe biden continues to claim that anybody making 400,00

the bond market is priced for that ed hyman disinflationary world.ill be on the next couple of quarters, it is priced for the fed to be hitting their target all the way into perpetuity. yet, real yields are quite elevated all the way out the curve as well. have a combination of market pricing and relatively low inflation, but also relatively tight monetary policy. we don't think those things can exist for very long. clearly right now, the fed is hawkish. they are likely to continue to tighten monetary policy. we don't doubt their credibility on that. if they achieve their inflation goal, real yields are too high, especially on a structural basis. tom: how do you play this for mere mortals? do you buy to ration -- by duration? marc: we think it is -- michael: we think it makes more sense to pit one against the other. either breakevens are right and inflation will come down, and therefore the fed be on this year needs to be quite a bit easier, or if real yields are priced correctly and the fed will remain that hawkish, it is probably because inflation

jonathon: if you look at what mohammed is saying a new dovetail what we heard from ed hyman, no wonderof opinion. jonathon: look at the move in the bond market. five weeks in a two year yield climate breaching 470 getting closer to 4% on a 10 year maturity. i forget who said it but essentially, the fed is telling you you can get 5% wanted t-bill why would you go anywhere else? tom: that's a short-term view. if you have a six-month t-bill, and six months you have to make a decision. jonathon: thus the investment risk. tom: at new york university, there's a guy who's an expert on the math. jonathon: the question is, is this a once in a generation to lock in yield or is it a new generation of high-yield? tom: what do we do with our traditional portfolio theory out when we're back to a normal rate structure? jonathon: sebastien page joins us cio t. rowe price associates. you have a phrase that is aggressive defense, what's aggressive defense? >> we play both offense and defense of the same time. the bearish narrative is so strong. the gloom and is really strong right now. the yield curve i

tom: there's never been an ed hyman death zone.erican economic experiment. i want to make clear and we heard it, john stoltzfus has done two notes calling this a baby bull market moments ago. there's a whole group looking at this as an american innovation zone. jonathan: the short answer, all of the above. coming into this year we've been hoping the process had started. it was about a question of whether that spread to services and how quickly that took place. now were having a conversation whether that picks up. that's a change from where we were. no you're faced on february asking a question, it is february confirmed january. if we get another big payroll report that's, communicate to a lot of people that there was more signal than noise in the data and then we have a completely different conversation. lisa: it's good to be a huge concern for the fed. jonathan: i remember bear grills didn't -- did a speech more than a decade ago when aberdeen -- i was in tears as he started to describe the death zone. it was heartbreaking to just