coming up in about 48 minutes, sitting down with ed hyman of evercore isi. huge debate. will talk about -- ed hyman will talk about disinflation and it dovetails nicely into what tom said, so we will have a lengthy conversation with ed hyman and i believe michael mckee will join. we will really grill him on where we are because he has done so well with the tendency here, and the optimism on america. thank you for the response, folks, by twitter and email to the italian islands. did you visit the castle in ischia? do they have a castle? jonathan: they do. tom: they filmed "cleopatra" there. when i was a kid, "cleopatra" was a huge movie and i was not allowed to see it. that is where they filmed it. jonathan: lots of movies. have you watched "il postino?" that is on the island nearby. tom: also, they talk about how it folds into your jet city life , ischia and the talented mr. ferro. jonathan: it is about taking vacation, you should dabble. tom: how do you get ischia? you flightaware? jonathan: naples. and then you can get a ferry. that is the latest information. tom: on a

jonathan: ed hyman of evercore was fantastic yesterday.ll conversation on bloomberg.com anti-terminal. remember this phrase, "nobody cares about the adp report, but then it comes out and is a big one. michael: it is a big one. 497,000 jobs created according to adp during june. that is well in advance of the forecast for 225,000. adp for months and months has been coming in lower than the nonfarm payrolls number from the bureau of labor statistics. if we have a higher number from els -- from bls, you can only imagine what the numbers will set two. most of the hiring was in leisure and hospitality. although the seasonably adjust these numbers, i am not sure if they have it right. because 232,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality. open all the beaches and amusement parks open up. that would increase the numbers but that is a very large number. you get a 497,000 with a loss of 42 thousand jobs in manufacturing according to adp. this is quite a number. it will be interesting to think about this tomorrow morning. jonathan: let's push through the b

he had ed hyman of evercore talking about how he is the most bearish on the economy he has ever beennd he cited the yield curve is one of those signals of that recession coming. for the bond market i would say one thing to watch is the job market. it seems like in that two-year the market is trying to understand how much more tightening and how much more data are we going to get from the economic side to paint this picture of where we go from here. shery: one reason we are seeing weakness when it comes to the chinese yuan, officials seem confident that they can stabilize the currency? >> there was a paper from the pboc making the point they have a range of tools, mostly accounting or money markets, to put a flow. they spoke about economic fundamentals in china being sound and that is expected to put a technical floor under the currency but as you mentioned it is a source of concern because high interest rates in the u.s. versus china is looking away from the bond and equity markets. that's a concern for the authorities. the yuan's 50 year low as not triggered the panic from 2015 for

second hike which feels like it's penciled in possibly for november >> it kind of reminds me of what ed hyman has been saying, which is normally a tightening cycle brings about some kind of crisis we got the taste of one in march. and they hiked again, which ed would argue is a bit unique, no? >> well, i think the fed made the assessment in march that they could walk and chew gum at the same time, right they were aggressive with some of the financial stability interventions, like the new bank term funding facility to give banks cheap long-term funding for those underwater treasury and nbs portfolios and taking aggressive actions on the one hand for financial stability, supporting the banks, gaining the ability to raise rates further. now, i would say in all fairness, looking at what we've seen since march, we've not yet seen very severe evidence, very substantial evidence of credit crunch, credit restraint emerging i still think over time they will see meaningful credit restraint emerge out of the stressed parts of the banking system certainly, its not been severe and it's not very pronounced

tom: back at citigroup and evercore, when ed hyman said what should i do with apple?ey. what is great about mahaney he can take a fender bass and plays a completely different from a standup base. jonathan: but faces easier right? tom: no, your base will cancel on you. jonathan: i always thought you just wanted to join the band so you started with base. tom: don't cancel us, please. jonathan: i have to be honest i thought that was the case. futures positive. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ tom: bloomberg surveillance, we say good morning to you. a really eventful day. important out of paris, you will begin to see luxury in france. we will see what they do. we go onto tech earnings this afternoon, with romaine bostick at all we are doing this afternoon. we get a 30 minute prebrief on the economics of the day, the housing data. right now, philadelphia fed manufacturing to provide billions -- brilliance. mike: it is not nearly as old as the manufacturing index and regional indexes do not make as much of a difference. 1.4 is the number, it was -16.6 before. this flies i