people finally deciding to stay home take the kids on that summer vacation ed morse, thank you very muchte it. >> thanks for having me. good to see you again. >> always, ed. >>> time to get random but interesting on the commodities story. this morning, let's stay on the energy story this rbi is not about those. it is about something else that has been hotter. coal yes, coal. coal prices and coal stocks. they continue to go up as global power demand soars coal traded in rotter dam up 112% in six months if you watch it this show or follow us on social media, you may not be surprised this should not be a new piece of information for you over one year ago, our rbi was also on coal look at that and coal demand and prices starting to boom that was 12 months ago if you took that information and did stock research on your own and threw cashstocks, congratulations. look at the returns. peabody up 120%. baytex up 300% in a year incredible returns most of the stocks were left in a pile of coal a few years ago btu was doa. investors realized the need for global energy would grow big homes, air condi

are we heading to an ed morse future? how does this factor into the expectations for recession. tom: let's partition that. -- and others including mr. morris at citigroup really push against that and say guess what, high prices solves its own problem. kailey: the cure for higher prices is higher prices. the point of the story is it's a lower than where we are now. she has been on this program in recent months talking about how oil could easily go north of 150 because of the supply-side issues related to the war in ukraine. it has been unable to preach 120 and that has been the demand concern that's out there. tom: we are going to lead off with some russia. some ruble chat out of their finance minister. turkey out moments ago holding their repo rate. in the real world futures up 27. the vix, i'm sorry. it's a draw up. it's a 28 handle. a two year yield is 3.02%. let's go to the brief right now. lisa: we have a bunch of data coming out today. have we seen the best of the employment reports, do we start to see jobless claims take upward as we expect that to be the likely pathway of

ed morse, and we get back to oil fundamentals at your call of $90 a barrel? s the ascent of oil? ed: the catalyst is supply and demand. we have to get through the next few weeks to see if there is a driving season over the summer. underlying the differences of you is what we think is raising prices now. what we think are raising prices now are the dislocations that have occurred as a result of companies and countries refusing to take on russian oil. there is no easy substitute. we are not in a one oil pricing system. we have to remember that while wti may be at 120, brent at 120 something, this is trading lower than that. we have to ask why we have these higher prices. tom: we are planning a trip to abu dhabi. of course, we will have in a wheel summit there. we will have on stage you and other worthys. the distinction is that hydrocarbon investment will or will not come on. if we get higher oil prices, are you more optimistic than others that investment will materialize? ed: for starters, i don't think there is that problem. we have more than enough investment

ed morse of citigroup talks about the macro economics of the moment.tephen short is hyper defined. let me go to the single sentence of your note. 99% of us are simply getting poor were this commodity surge. well that trend continue? >> absolutely. real disposable income as fallen in 10 of the past 13 months because a runaway inflation. inflation that all the smartest people in the world spent the better part of last year doing humans work making fools of themselves every week, saying inflation is transitory. if i don't have to eat, put the lights on, if i don't want any coal, inflation is not a problem. it always comes down to commodities. what we are looking at in the energy industry, we know the story. the esg ground, the people taking the war against natural gas, that is a war against the american consumer. natural gas is a key feedstock in synthetic ammonia fertilizer. we are putting fewer seeds into the ground the spring which means we are taking fewer crops in the fall. inflation has not peaked, at least on the core level. with energy and food, i

we hear from almost every oil analyst with the exception of ed morse, that oil prices will not stay at this level. what is the downside and when does the consumer become vulnerable? jonathan: what is not standing still, the italian bond market. yields on 15 basis points on the italian 10 year. 12 on the 2-year note. a line about addressing fragmentation. we will need more details to temper any concerns about what could happen here. then you have this kind is not just for july or september, but opening the door for something bigger perhaps. also a sustained move further down the road. that is an ecb talking about a rate hiking cycle, not a couple of hikes. lisa: italian bond traders are not hearing the flexibility from the ecb to possibly buy other bonds from other countries. not enough conviction to get a ceiling to these yields. jonathan: candy ecb president lean into the uncertainty, the risks around that sustained tightening cycle down the road? tom: i am looking at a fancy mathematical chart of the italian 10 year. from the beginning of the year, you have enjoyed a price move on th

indicate the christyan malek view of things, that this is still the haven even if you think the citi ed morses some credence. this is the best hedge against inflation at a time when it seems like commodity prices are going to go up over the long-term, despite some barrels coming back online perhaps from saudi arabia? jonathan: what did chris verrone say this morning? overbought, not over owned. lisa: i would agree with that. a lot of people waiting for capitulation from the esg crowd to say may we have to buy these. at what point do you see that to have this particular component become a bigger one in the s&p then it has been over the past decade? jonathan: that wasn't that gloomy, tom. that was not that gloomy at all. lisa: are you disappointed? jonathan: not at all. tom: she's fired up about the jubilee. jonathan: to be honest, i don't think she is. tom: team coverage here will continue to look to london. jonathan: they can't wait. tom: joining us now, megan greene, senior fellow, harvard kennedy school. importantly is the idea here of using the queens english. you do that with the utah des

demand shows no sign of slowing down ed morse is here with more. >>> and not just oil natural gas soarings that pull it out of the ground our conversation with the ceo of chesapeake energy ahead. >>> call it a treasure trove of data elon m

you've got citigroup's ed morse saying that you can expect oil to go lower from here and to be a lote choppy from here. the path ahead will be bumpy, he says. haidi: iron ore extending that route. su: china's progrowth policies have done little to tamp down the concerns that the market is much more fearful now that it was before. that there is going to be -- amid the slowing demand. futures have lost a quarter of their value over the last two weeks. and this is as the chinese economy struggles to emerge from the lockdown. we demand is impacting a lot of the steel companies in these 18 blast furnaces have been idle. the company put them in maintenance and that's triple the rate we saw just from six days ago. the outpour falling by the most, more than 54,000 times a day. analysts say prices have much further to fall, and there is somewhat of a sense of urgency because china has seen improvement on the front. the number of cases has really fallen in the last few weeks. however this is a concern that shaders are now really focused on, the demand that leaves us. haidi: bloomberg su keenan