ed yardeni mentioned it as well. short-term yields are rising because the fed is going to raise rates aggressively the jobs report the other day, a lot of the inflation data continues to suggest that they have a lot of work to do short-term rates are rising still, long-term rates are reflecting -- they reflect three things tyler they reflect growth expectations, inflation expectations, and term premium let's put that aside for a minute growth expectations are falling pretty quickly and i do think that that's important. we just did an inflation impact survey of individual investors, and the majority of them expect a recession in the next 6 to 12 months >> there you go. mic my o'rooney, thank you very much we appreciate your time today. >>> shares of valley bank up 12 proerch the past month, the consumer, the decline in rates even as the fed hikes. >>> plus, we are trading dynamic spo dick's sporting goods, find out which is a buy in today's three stock lunch. as we head to a break, a look at some of the tstocks hittin

ed yardeni kind of alluded to that. were actually anticipating, at least you said you weren't anticipating anything incremental from jackson hole. was powell's bluntness, was that a surprise to you? >> yeah, i mean powell's bluntness was a surprise and the reaction from the equity market. the bond market seemed to have it pretty well figured out. we didn't see a huge move up in 2-year, 10-year, the exchange markets didn't see a big breakout above the 109 level there. seems like the equity markets sort of had it wrong. they got too far ahead of themselves and powell kind of put it back in its place. charles: what i find interesting even with today's move down on good news, the confidence report if you look at a chart, it looks like a typical chart off of a trend line that is moving significantly lower. even the stronger than expected jobs numbers, jolts number, quits went down incrementally. that is what the fed is looking for. this pull tug-of-war kind of situation, when does that start to change? i guess we need more d

just getting started her at post 9 at the new york stoc exchange in just a little bit i'll get ed yardeni'sust playbook as h makes the case why stocks will have a strong second half of the year we'll find out why and what th risks are to that call >>> some key earnings, they're imminent pinterest and activation blizzard hitting any momen now? our reporters are obviousl standing by to break in with everything that you need t know we'll show you the stock moves have all the analysis that you need >>> we begin

further guidance but for guidance right now you can't get better than any yardeni research head, ed yardeniyou opined 3600, 3666 probably was the bottom we spokes. we might get a little bit of a pullback. is there a number you think has to hold? >> i don't really do it that way. i kind of watch the market action relative to the fundamentals. i think as you said, there was way too much pessimism earlier this year and then suddenly we got maybe too much optimism since the june 16th low. but all in all i think the market can go up, go down, could go sideways. i think it will go sideways for a little while, we have the issue of the fed. the fed will go over 75 basis points in september. i do think they will pause. there are other things they're doing to continue to tighten the credit system like quantitative tightening. charles: ed, how surprised are you, that so many investors, i pulled the chart back up, just 38% or so say that they plan to increase their equity exposure. the reason i ask is the oldest saying on wall street is buy low, sell high. seems like every time it gets low more and mor

in mind you know, i want to bring in one of the best in the business, yardeni research president ed yardenied, yesterday the spread between new orders and inventories was negative. i want to point out to the audience, when this happened in the past every time it happened the economy was already in recession. i don't think you're in the recession camp but what are your thoughts where we are? >> well the manufacturing sector is obviously very weak. we've seen the consumer pivot away from goods towards services and as a result retailers wound up having more inventoryies than they anticipated. we're seeing the purchasing managers index for the manufacturers, they're realizing that the demand for their products is not what it used to be. so i think it is really more of a pivot on the part of the consumer than a situation where the consumer stops spending. jackie: charles: speaking of that, pmi number, prices paid index that had a pretty nice drop, right? 60 from 87 in march. >> right. charles: so the question here though inflation may be peaking may be fading. do we, can we avoid a recession? ca

investors a long time and considered one of the best on the street for a long time, yardeni research ed yardeni. ed, you reposted your may ft article. it was entitled investors are too bearish about the u.s. stock market. are you taking a victory lap here or kind of reminding us? >> no, i'm just pointing out that investors had been way too pessimistic about the economy, about earnings, they thought we're falling into recession. now it is obviously not that obvious. and in addition they thought that analysts were way too optimistic about earnings. the irony analysts are cutting their earnings expectations. so what is the market doing? it is going up. so it's, you always have to realize the market sort of has its own logic and you don't want to get too carried a way with the short-term volatility. i think we did make a low in the bear market back on june 16th at 3666. that doesn't mean we go straight up. charles: sure. >> we just did go straight up. i think what weigh we do here go sideways. charles: we consolidate those gains and maybe go higher. i think that is mart. ed, a whole lot of experts

ed yardeni has a new call on stocks he will tell you what it is in just a few hours cameron dawson, gregarnings along with zoom do not miss it i will see you 4:00 eastern time in o.t before we do that we have to do this final trades steve weiss, you go first. talk to me >> thanks, scott that's appropriate look, brin came out as i afinal trade last week when i was on with devon i'm going to do the same thing today. and i do believe that natural gas is going to drive it whatever happens with oil, well, that will be separate. i think that's going to be rocky for a while. >> i mean, just real quick on this before we get your final trade, joe, there are calls for natural gas to be like 20 bucks. >> yeah. >> is that like the realm of possibility as you see it? >> once natural gas gets going, the up side potential is unknown. >> what's your final trade >> my final trade would be refiner, valero energy you could also own phillips 66 if you wanted. >> okay. energy's back on and i guess you guys are going to ride it again all right. farmer jim i miss you, man. i missed you >> i missed you too. >>

sideways for a while before moving on to new highs next year >> ed, always great to speak with you, ed yardeni an hour to go, the s&p 500 off about 36 points, nasdaq off about 142 points right about now. still trying to make sense of crypto here, melissa i don't really have an answer for you. but right now we're looking at bitcoin down about $21,540 >> maybe it's just risk off across the board, across assets today. we'll see. >> we'll see thank you, melissa, for hanging out. >> pleasure. >> hope to see you next week >>> have a great weekend, everybody, hope you join us on monday "squawk on the street" begins right now. >>> good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quinn an -- la with mike santoli and dave faber. investors consider whether this bear market rally has run its course for now dollar is headed for the best weekly rally since june. bed bath shares plunging after it was confirmed investor ryan