. -- ed yardeni.mberg. ♪ >> the consumer is starting to say that these prices are becoming problematic. >> the consumer has softened which makes some sense giving the pressures out there. >> the one thing causing people to go home is the stagflation we've been seeing. >> the biggest tail risk is inflation. if inflation is higher, that is a big risk. >> the cpi data will show this trend that disinflation has stalled. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: this is what it is all about. 30 minutes away from u.s. inflation data together with retail sales. the third hour of bloomberg surveillance begins right now. 8:30 eastern, the two data points to watch. this just dropped from citi and andrew hollenhorst. andrew saying we expect soft retail sales to show consumer demand is slowing and why they think the fed is on track for a cut in july. lisa: if we get the in-line print for cpi which is expected as we just heard all focus goes to retail

investors turning their attention to next week's all important cpi and ppi data joining us now ed yardenie president of yardeni research. good to see you. >> thank you, scott. >> what a remarkable turn since we were down 5% or so on the s&p, wondering if we were going to have a 10% correction from there, and here we are less than a percent away from a record high what should we make of this? >> it's clearly still very much a bull market. i thought we could have a 5 to 10% correction we had something a little bit over 5%. looks like we're not going to have anything like 10% the economic outlook remains really quite positive. i think inflation is going to continue to moderate i think the economy is going to continue to grow, and i think that means that earnings are going to continue to head up, probably not to a new high in the first quarter when the numbers come out, but i think over the next couple of orders we're going to make new record highs in earnings. i see the market moving higher. >> i mean, let's kick earnings around, if you would >> sure. >> because i know where the outlook is,

for that let's bring in yardeni research president ed yardeni.ou wrote an excellent report on bond yields yesterday. and if i understand you're saying hey we should all be looking for a new trading range with respect to that 10-year yield? >> yeah, i think everybody's been talking about how the fed has tightened monetary policy, how it has increased the federal funds rate by 525 basis points since march of 2022. i think what is important to realize here, is that the fed is also really normalized interest rates. the bond yield is actually back to normal. we had that abnormal period between the great financial crisis, the great virus crisis, when the fed was targeting the fed funds rate at zero and we hat quantitative easing. i think that is behind us. i think we're back to where we were before the great financial crisis and look at the charts, you will see the bond yield was four to 5% and the economy was doing absolutely fine. i think the economy and the stock market will continue to do just fine with yields between four and 5%. by the way, i thi

ed yardeni and sam stovall are both on deck. lots of blowups on earning season. before you're tempted to pick the bottom you must listen to erin gibbs. she has information you cannot afford to miss. she will be here at 2:15. you remember the song or movie, give them something to talk about? the fed is talking but here is the problem, is it communicating. judy shelton on why the fed's messaging is falling flat. i had the honor of giving my first commencement speech this weekend. i will give you my speech for the class of 2024. all that and so much more on "making money". charles: so the market coming off really good week. this part right here is all of last week, doing pretty good, coming up pretty good for the year right now. here's the thing. it needed to make a stand last week, right the 10-year, the way the feeling of this market, the bounce, it started to acknowledge at least for investors there is desire for more balance, it just can't be seven stocks. it was all really about value last week. this is about values for the stock market, two real big, big winne

ed yardeni, thank you so much, folks. you heard from ed, here to stay, that's the theme. one thing for sure inflation has been stubborn and it has been defiant. it means everything as far as the fed is concerned there will have to be some reassessment. bring in qi research, of course the chief strategist there danielle dimartino booth. danielle, this, this new paradigm and it's focused on the supercore, right? so important to the federal reserve, the pendulum has swung. ed talked about the things the fed can't control. things contributing to supercore, health care, financial services, insurance, transportation, these things have not gone in the other direction. is this a new reality in life? they will not come down on their own, are they? >> not so much they will not come down on their own. what's pertinent to the members of the fomc is whether or not they can effect change in these elements. 50% of the increase in the supercore last month, 50%, came from the, cost to repair a car and auto insurance. these things two years in the making to get through the regulatory entit

jack: one solve would be ed yardeni cause the magic fairy dust of productivity we seen productivity bettery, do you think that's a sustainable course? it's not a.i. yet but are numbers looking better to you? >> i'm not seeing anything good about productivity in the data but i see a lot of good things about productivity in the news if you look at the productivity statistics they were good in the fourth quarter but bad in the first order, average over the last couple of years and the statistics are not showing must've a burst in productivity, i'm using generative a.i. every day in my own work is making me more productive more businesses are figuring out how to use it, i'm optimistic it's going to show up i just don't know that it's going to be on time to help the fed with this part of the cycle it might be to - 5 years from now than the next year. >> jason furman thank you for your insights. we appreciate it. have a good weekend. first-quarter earnings season coming to a close, investors when enamel is gone, you cannot get it back. but you can repair it with pronamel repair. it penetrates de

let's bring in ed yardeni, president of yardeni research.written in the last few weeks about maybe the risk of a market melt up returning. where is your head on that right now and how do some of these data points feed into it? >> at this point, my base case is we have a fairly leisurely bull market. i have been targeting 5400 by year end and we're awfully close to that already. i'm not going to change that. i think, you know, we could stall out here a little bit, but all in all, things look pretty upbeat. i mean the numbers this morning were great. ppi was revised down as leslie pointed out. there was an outlier there in portfolio management fees. i guess wall street, the bull market is up and they're charging higher fees. the ppi numbers are fully consistent with the cpi inflation continuing to moderate towards 2% by the end of the year and, carl, one more thing, the national federation of independent businesses, the small businesses they still got plenty of job openings. they can't find people. >> i know, too, as some have worried about ce

. >> ed yardeni yesterday, jim, looking at consumer in particular. household personal discretionary income, per household, you take out the covid spike. it's never been higher. >> i'm tired of hearing about credit card delinquencies. when i look at macy's, you can't be a quarter miracle worker. that was a really good quarter. when you look at what marvin ellison from lowes is doing -- i have him on tonight. i would say we're in trouble, the contractors aren't doing well. well, they're not doing well on the home depot side of the street. maybe it's raining there. on this side of the street with lowe's, they're doing well. i have to tell you, i keep getting shot down from the thesis of the consumer not spending. yesterday i had norwegian cruise on. try getting on a cruise. by the way, you can get a $500 room in the middle and $1,000 outside. they're all sold out. where is this consumer weakness? >> the fact it's minus four comp at lowe's, you think that's good management. >> yes. absolutely. still better whan than what i expected. marvin has a terrific

. >> as ed yardeni might argue, jim, it's a by-product of a big generation of boomers moving into agesre they need medical care if we are looking for bright spots, though, wing is down,bu comps are nearly doubled at 22 >> i've got them on tonight, and i think it's -- well, look, the stock is probably the best performer in the entire restaurant group, and i do think that it can be down. but it's not smci kind of down where they, you know, basically didn't really meet the real revenue guide. >> yeah. how about -- >> i feel very good about wing stop >> there's always pinterest. >> we got pins as well >> pinterest has got a lot of things right >> up 18% premarket, hanging on to those opening gains >> they have a model now that allows them to make some money there's a good -- you know what, david? there's a lot of young people who are on there, and they're doing some business now. >> i'm sure they are >> but snap too. pinterest and snap how do you like that >> both with huge double-digit gains post-earnings. >> they had a 23% overall revenue growth rate for pins obviously, we're still talki

brian has been dead right, and i saw him here the other day, and he has been just terrific, and ed yardeniood work. the bond vigilantes are nowhere to be found. rates went up too high. everyone thought this was the spike to five for the ten-year. that didn't happen. you have -- it's almost impossible to find a group that is out of favor. almost impossible. let's see. i mean, you have boeing, what, about to be perhaps -- >> the doj. >> i don't know how you -- you can't do that -- doj, i mean, they got to go after -- you can't go after a company. there is no companies. it doesn't affect anybody. go after a person, that changes people's attitude. but i just find that other than that company, aerospace is incredible. so, i just find, over and over again, it's very difficult to find an area of the stock market that's bad. very hard. >> yeah. morgan stanley with a great piece today on summer travel, especially at the higher income levels, jim. their intentions to spend a net 32% increase in spending intentions for the upper income strata. >> the mastercard survey, which we covered extensively ye