>> what it means is that we're going to see a fairly rapid ,eduction in drilling activity and the rate.s. production which has been nothing short of spectacular, more than one million barrels a day each year, will probably drop next year to maybe 300,000 400,000 barrels a day. the year after that, it could even fall. >> really? >> any of these producers are hedged so that the slowdown will spread out over time. but if you look at the statistics on how these wells are financed, you find that a debtf the producers issued of roughly 17% of the high-yield bonds, $1.7 trillion in high-yield onset merrill lynch tracks are issued by the producers going into the oil field, and i think that financing gets shut off monday morning. it is so that we will see some and very similar to what we saw in the mid--1980's, early 1980's, when prices began to fall him and midland, texas, went from being a boomtown to a ghost town. so the activity will slow rapidly. the rate of production will not decline. 2016say, not until probably. one of the ways to think about this is the housing crisis. we saw a seven c