of standard creditor write downs edward harrison. but in a free country that prides itself on free press truth as the post so when over propaganda a watchdog press is the pope to hold government accountable for abuses of power that happen at home last week two american hikers were released from an iranian jail a story that continues to make headlines here in the us the headline screamed abuse and iran but silences seems when it comes to abuses of power right here on u.s. soil the want to come sobrang the watchdog who back it says the u.s. press truly has artie's on a stuffy a churkin reports. the mainstream media watchdog over pleased to power days here you was going trick stories how most of these americans coming back after being held in prison stories ruined izing government crowded in going to be fully comprehend the threat that iran poses. well apparently we don't well america's own skeletons are shoved into the closet and seen a financial crisis happen at the meteor missed we see and you know a deep economic distress in this co

soon be a thing of the past but is that really the case for some answers earlier i spoke with edward harrison founder of the blog credit write down i asked him to break things down for those of us who are not financial experts and tell us of which way the economic winds are blowing take i think. it's not very clear at this point but the odds are even at a minimum that we are headed for a recession and a lot of that actually have to do with the policy response both in europe and in the united states while in the united states we have. you know the end of fiscal stimulus the end of any sort of support from the government to the economy that's going to be a headwind then we also have the federal reserve which is also going to keep things relatively high. compared to the loosening that they had done before and then europe is pretty much the same thing that you have austerity which is even more than what we have in the united states and you also have the monetary policy which is also fairly tight but it may be reduced to some point but both of those say that the policy response is going to be rest

officials and balin suggested athens could be forced out of the single currency a financial analyst edward harrison says any default carries the real risk of contagion. i think what's going to happen is the euros are going to say look this isn't working we realize that there's no way they're going to be able to repay and do the austerity we're going to have to take some haircuts that is we have to write down the debt you want to default and then we're going to have some sort of program to deal with that in an orderly and structured world there's going to be losses and we know that those losses are going to mean that we're recapitalize banks both banks in the lender countries like germany and france but also the greek banks themselves you know there might be a powder flask type of attitude meaning that you know if we cap was your bags that means you probably have to flog some of them off and sell them to foreigners things of that nature there's always going to be some recrimination and tension but at the end of the day once these debts that are unsustainable are written off i think that that's a pos

billion dollars so what does all of this mean for europe america and americans earlier i spoke to edward harrison he's founder of credit write downs i first asked him if he thinks greece is going to default. i think they will have a hard restructuring this year that means basically principal but i don't think it's going to be an unstructured of thought where they basically just run out of mali which you know is that they're going to get a top up in service of the bailout that they've already received even though they actually haven't met the the criteria for the austerity but you know it's the end of the law for this this program i think what's going to it is the eurozone is going to say look this isn't working we realize that there's no way they're going to be able to repay and do the austerity we have to take some haircuts that is we have to write the debt you know default and then we would have some sort of program to deal with that in an orderly instruction world so who loses and that's an area the bondholders of the greek sovereign debt and that principle greek beggs but also foreign like ge

if my next guest can help us make some sense out of all all of this with me in the studio is edward harrison founder of the blog credit write down at thank you for joining us so i what is it going on before we get into greece let's start with the big picture on the economy for those for those of us who aren't financial experts are things getting better now or are we headed towards another recession which way are the economic winds blog i think. is very clear at this point but the. even at a minimum are headed. and a lot of that actually has to do with the policy response both in europe and in the united states was in the united states we have. you know the end of the school stimulus the end of any sort of support from the government to the economy that's going to be a headwind then we also have the. the federal reserve which is also going to keep things relatively. compared to the loosening that they had done before there in europe is pretty much the same thing that you have austerity which is even more than what we have in the united states and you also have the monetary policy which is als

let's have the investor mentality so what happens if that mentality is wrong joining us this is edward harrison the founder of the blog credit write down everything so much for joining us tonight now do you think that at this point it's inevitable explain this ninety eight percent chance that people are saying a greek default well basically you know they have these derivatives thought swaps and. you know people bet on the more they buy them in order. that basically all default would see you know is the numbers stack up to be within the next five years as a percent share of the default which they would be wholly of forty percent of the cause of the of the do you buy that would you bet on a. good one hundred percent that's what you said i do you could start it within five years definitely the question is not if it would it's going to or five years seems like kind of a long time at least at the rate that things have been going you know and now we have the german economy minister saying that we can actually.

the investor mentality so what happens if that mentality is wrong joining me to discuss this is edward harrison a founder of the blog write down every thanks so much for joining us tonight now do you think that at this point it's inevitable explain this ninety eight percent chance that people are saying of agreeing to a thought you know they have these derivatives credit default swaps and. you know people bet on the board they buy them. that basically default with there's no is the numbers stack up to be within the next five years as a percent share. which there would be only a forty percent of the cold reach of the of the do you buy that would you bet on that. that's why it's said i think it's going to within five years definitely the question is not if it's going to happen when it's good or five years seems like kind of a long time at least at the rate of things have been going you know and now we have the german economy minister saying that we can.

one of the regular players, 39-year-old edward harrison failed to contribute to the jackpot rule becausee is entitled to the $2 million share anyway. >> because they have been doing it for years. >> they set aside $2 million in case he gets it and prevails in court. >> you got to pay to play but you have to protect your coworkers. >> that would have been a great talkback question today. should the dude harrison get his $2 million? >> i don't play consistently enough to really -- >> as they say, you wouldn't have a case. >> i don't do it rain or shine. i only do it when the powerball is above $200 million. >>> colts quarterback peyton manning now listed as doubtful for sunday's opening game because of lingering pain after off-season neck surgery. manning has started 227 straight games for the colts. ali velshi had hair when this guy first started. >> that's right. >> regular season and postseason games. they drafted him back in 1998. >> unbelievable. >> every game since then he has started. >>> take a break. blockbuster deals you will guarantee the head coaches will be getting gatorade sh

edward. how are you? >> plan as secretary of state under benjamin harrison. >> he has served under three presidents. >> garfieldeld and here said. that was a long period. with harrison, he was in a wonderful position. he really had reached the zenith of his career. he was viewed as powerful if not more powerful than the president himself. he had free range to be able to develop. ideas he had been working on for years in terms of international relations. his particular interest during the 1892. with central and south america. he developed including the idea for the pan-american union and so on. >> i want to get more involved on that and of little on. let me ask you about the study here. there are few pieces with late -- with abraham lincoln. t know him? >> idea now that he knew him personally. >> he went to congress. he was elected to congress in 1892. he would have served in washington from 1863 -- lincoln was assassinated on april 14. there is a very poignant reminder of his connection with lincoln here at the house. that is that this card -- seven days before lincoln is assassinated he went to lincoln. we kno

edward. >> hi, how are you? >> great, thanks. your question? >> what was the role of james g. blaine as secretary of state under william benjamin harrison? some're going to spend time on that later on. >> garfield, arthur, and then harrison. harrison was the long period. garfield was less than nine months. with harrison, it was a wonderful position because he had really reached the zenith of his career. he was viewed as powerful if not more powerful than the president himself. he had this free rein to be able to develop ideas that he had been working on for years in terms of international relations. -- his particular interest during the 89 to 92. was central and south america. he developed, including the idea of the pan-american union and so on. >> i want to get more involved on that later run. there are a few pieces connected that abraham lincoln. he was obviously a supporter of abraham lincoln. did he know him, that we know of? >> i do not know that he knew him personally. >> he went to congress in 1862. so he would have served in washington from 1863, and lincoln was assassinated on april 14, 1865. there is a very poignant reminder of

edward. >> hi, how are you? >> great, thanks. your question? >> will was the role of james g. blaine as secretary of state under william benjamin harrison?e going to spend some time on that later on. >> garfield, author, and then harrison. harrison was the long period. darpa of was less than nine months. with harrison, it was a wonderful position because he had really reached the zenith of his career. he was viewed as powerful if not more powerful than the president himself. he had this free rein to be able to develop ideas that he had been working on for years in terms of international relations. and his particular interest 892 area was889-199 developing central america. >> let me ask you about in your study, there are a few memorabilia connected with abraham lincoln. he was obviously a supporter of abraham lincoln. did he know him? >> i do not know that he knew personally. >> he went to congress in 1862. so he would of served in washington from 1863, and lincoln was assassinated on april 14, 1865. there is a very poignant reminder of this connection with lincoln here at the house. there is a little card, literally seven days before lin