the reference case in the eia's annual energy outlook for the u.s. shows dependence on imported petroleum will shrink from about 50% in 2010 right now we're already down below 45%, to 36% in 2035. if we were to take the high production case and combine that with the low demand case, that number could be 14%, down close to 3 million barrels a day. it's not impossible to think of some cases that would lead to even further shrinkage and dependence on net imports. if you had higher oil prices and more conservation, if you had stronger fuel efficiency standards, if you had better technology in the demand sector, including things like how much oil is being consumed in home heating, in commercial heating, all of that could lead to further shrinkage in that import number. one thing that i think that you should keep in mind in all of this, and then i'll close on this topic, is a bit of caution in terms of interpreting what it would mean if the u.s. were to become self-sufficient in oil. the harvard kennedy school just published the report a month ago, suggest

there's not other mccondo disaster, we're going to see a very robust growth, more robust growth than the eia has. when we looked at onshore production, we interestingly ran a lot of regressions based on efficiency improvements and the surprising thing to us, which also gave us more robust numbers an the eia has but surprisingly we have understated the degree to which efficiency gains have been growing. we have i think down more significantly robust view of canadian production than the eia has, and that's partly based on new revisions from canadian producers and the canadian government, and we have an uptick actually in alaskan production, so i think the major differences are found in the deepwater and our judgments about efficiency improvements in tapping new technology into a very robust resource base. >> so what i hear is essentially it's a series of microanalyses of different opportunities rather than different macro assumptions about the investment environment and so on. let me ask something about timing, because adam, when i said your scenario doesn't have a north american independence

the eia website has been redesigned. it gets hundreds of thousands of hits daily. and it's -- it's a very, very, i think, useful tool not just for kids but for everybody in the analytical community and in the policy community that's looking for answers to some of these basic questions. >> all right. i want to get to more questions here. sir? can you wait for the microphone? because i think we're -- >> department of energy. kind of a two-part question. mr. west, your firm puts out, i think it's -- i don't know the exact title, but the top 50 every year, energy companies. i wonder, first, how this might shake up that list in a sense that much of the revolution, the development we're talking about is in the western hemisphere. what does this mean for previous national champ whereons like total, bp, others, given a lot of this is going on in the u.s., and traditional natural gas and oil plays are still under state control in countries like saudi arabia and others? and secondly, then, going back to the geopolitical implications of this, and this is maybe for the broader

in the eia reference case, that w. in the eia reference case, that will support a certain level of production, but high estimated ultimate recovery case for a high total reserves case that could push production or potential production numbers up even higher. the reference case is a darker shade here, but as you can see, there are a number of cases, particularly with high reserves, where net imports shrank quite a bit. as you get out to 202025 and 2035. honestly we have had import numbers that depend on not just domestic supply but what is happening with demand as well. let's look at some of the possibilities here. the reference case in the eia is energy outlook for the u.s. shows dependence on imported petroleum, which will shrink from about 50% in 2010 by now we are already down below 45% to 36% in 2035. if we were to take the high production case and combine that with the low demand case, that number could be 14%, down close to 3 million barrels a day. if not, if not impossible, it is possible to think of some cases

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now, i can't see sort of gaiing a decision on what they woul sithouot xnk eia mobil or microsoft or other of these other things. justice stevens' decision is rooted in lot of historical research. a womn h something very hose twthko out presenting interests, including money interest in capturing the government, and how obsessed they were with the potential of corruption within govrnment. now again i don't wnt o m taimcu stsa ong etngt i now the founders would've operated had the lead in the progress of air or the new deal era, o now. but i think, you know, the indications we have is that th ki fcrehty od abt inou and again i think, throughout our history we have not been arguing, we did have a powerful socialistparty in merica. t on the whole our argument calio anave. ndf and the whole fight over the bank of the united states. andrew jackson some of those who made a whole series of statements that would have resonate at occupy wal street ie d er l ed buw urgat gck t founders, luxury might corrupt our small r republican tradition, which they argued about that quite a lot. so i think the arg

toble isd eia e et bth ub o nreecr yo probably seen in textbooks and so on 280,000 ne. cars among during world war ii. were talking 86,000 tanks. the and a l . uder mbtukeik udern supplies 200,000 alone. studebaker tracks at the back opposedogistic system ithe condl a o le alnd ato eu toheteo berlin. two and half million machine guns. many of them produced by compies that have never seen a chingune mps rgt peer ti pteet oa which produced the bywnhr. under ontractscet r il rs ni. outpouring, just as knudson had promised in just the oe you could depenuon ing at nacti aedo aclishment, you have to ask ourselves, how do they do it? is the kind of thing the american economy could do aain? iaey n h erstis eyohvbenof a of it happens to be comes to become clear for the economic boom after thewrf t rtprtihiba th flthsd uy possible. first of all you have to realize again the order is here, money spent, and h$0ll f d iitiroio tds oa i im check. but that's a capacity think about it in terms of stimulus. if you're memorized by the numbers alone, it sike ttpeg t mny me titotju neurnte

i hope kind of thing filters down, the eia web site that has been redesigned, it gets hundreds of thousands of hits daily, and it is a very useful tool, not just for kids, but for everybody in the analytic community and policy committee that is looking for answers to some of these basic questions. >> i want to get some more questions here. sir? can you wait for the microphone? >> a two-part question. more firm put out the top 50 every year and a sheet companies. i wondered how this might shake up this list and the sense as much of the revolution we're talking about is in the western hemisphere. what does this mean for previous national champions given a lot of that is going on in the u.s. and otherwise traditional natural gas and will plays still under state control in saudi arabia and others? going back to the geopolitical implications of this, and this is for the broader panel, we talked about a shared global responsibility, but with about the u.s. against our engagement in india and china. what about the gulf producers, our agreements with them? what about our traditional consuming count

the third hit you get in google or bing if you type in energy information is the eia kids page. very, very popular. it's got a lot of really good basic information on where energy comes from, how it's transformed, how it's used, and i think it's extremely popular, and i hope that that kind of thing filters down. the e.i.a. website has been resigned. it gets hundreds of thousands of hits daily, and it's a very, very, i think, useful tool not just for kids, but for everybody in the analytical community looking for answers to basic questions. >> all right. more questions here. sir? can you wait for the microphone? >> the department of energy. a two-part question. mr. west, your firm puts out, i don't know the exact title but the top 50 energy companies every year. i wonder first how this might shake up that list in the sense that much of the revolution is in the western hemisphere. what does this mean for previous national champions like total and b.p. and the otherwise traditional gas and oil plays still under state control in places like saudi arabia and second lip, going back to

the eia web site has been redesigned. it gets hundreds of thousands of hits daily, and it's a very, very, i think, useful tool, not just for kids but for everybody in the analytical community and in the policy community looking for answers to some of these basic questions. >> i want to get to some more questions here. yes? >> kuwait for -- >> i'm from the department of energy. a two-part question. mr. west, your firm put0s -- i don't know the exact title but the top 50 energy companies. i wondered how this might shake up the list in the sense that much of the revolution, the developments we're talking about. is in the western hemisphere. what does that it mean for bp and other places are under state control in saudi arabia and others, and secondly, going back to the geo political indications for this, we talk about mr. ciao -- mr. chow mentioned a share global responsibility, and what about our traditional consuming country allies, south korea, japan, newspaper what does it mean for them if the u.s. is more secure? >> goo

. >> we have crude according to the eia down 4.3 million barrels, much more than expected flats.htly negative to positive. down about 10 or 11 cents before the report and now up about 20 cents and going inside the numbers gasoline was a build of 200,000 barrels, a little more than expected, and distill lates down 1.1 million which was more than expected. a bit of a mixed report. when it comes to crude, much bigger drawdown than expected, 4.3 million as opposed to the expectation of minus 2 million. >> thank you very much. get a chekt on the markets. dow looking to be down 31, s&p at 13.69 and nasdaq of course moderately higher, 3 points to 29.79 and retailers making up big numbers today, ross, limited and tjx higher and j.p. morgan, bank of america, the two biggest losers on the dow after mixed data from the u.s. and europe and both of those stocks are down sharply. get to the road map for thursday, better than expected economic data here in the states being over shadowed by a rate cut from china, from the ecb and the bank of england and we'll show you how to play it all ahead to

plain sight in san diego, and the fbi didn't talk to the fbi, internally and, of corse, didn talto eia rw t blfa vee . hega s to somehow find a better way to put the government functions together, as i mentioned in my testimony. many of us thought there was a simpler way to do thisbut we embraced what president bush wosut than wausw wh soinne ka miln. >> senator, the concept of a border security agency predates 9/11. there were discussions about trying to do something like this clear back in the nixon administration regarding order patrol othe southwes borde e coepislftvl. orromdao coast guard and someone who's worked with these agencies for nearly 40 years before i retired, the relationships between the coast guard, fema, immigration and customs have never been better. fema is a tter organization because they ar t--e co ar r. std hate rre katrina. i think it has also asked by senator lautenberg want to most of us think about leaving qt beuse user chairman. at the time i said we got o appropriions on time. m no seboan y e aal out bureaucratic war in the mid 1980s over who would do ther