. >> the el nino is larger than the godzilla el-nino in '97 and '98. 20 years ago we talked about el nino being destructive. california is asking for it >>> what will el nino bring, are we asking for it, and what are the signs that it is already here >>> thanks for being with us, i'm joie chen. somewhere out there beneath the shimmering waves of the california coast, somewhere out there is what expert predicts is a powerful system, it's called a godzilla el nino, and it is guaranteed to have an enormous impact. not just here on the pacific coast, but far inland and across the ocean. this is an el nino that will impact weather, wildlife and wealth. we begin our special coverage with oku. >> i ended up smashed against a house, and a beam pressed against my threat. i thought okay, if my throat breaks it will be more merciful than smothering >> reporter: buried in a mudslide and condemn templating a way to die. that's how dire the situation was in february 1998, the last time they were rocked by a powerful winter. somehow the californians was wiped out by a wall of mud. take me back to 19

el nino has arrived. palm trees in mexico twisting and contorting in 165 miles per hour winds. that is what happened when hurricane patricia, an el assure. >> hurricane patricia is one of the undesirable and punishing aspects of el nino. there's so much warm water blanketing the eastern pacific. when she came ashore, there were storm surges that hit the coast in excess of 20-25 feet. wind speeds of up to 150 miles per hour >>> the remnants of patricia pounded texas, and the louisiana gulf coast. >> you can't see anything out there. window. >> reporter: scientists say make no mistake. this el nino is shaping up to be a monster. what we have is the historical data to look back on. and this will certainly rank as one of the great el ninos in modern history. >> what is your biggest fear about the el nino that everyone is predicting this time around? >> that everyone will be overwhelmed in a way we have not seen. i imagine it worse than '98 or 2010, but the possibility is there that it could be. it's not knowin

but this strong el nino is warmer than the last strong el nino. so each el nino gets stronger.each la nina, the opposite, that gets warmer. and so there is an overall warming impact, too. and maybe 20 years from now, when we get an el nino this strong, the earth will be even much warmer than this. >> very interesting. nbc10 chief meteorologist glenn "hurricane" schwartz. always a pleasure to talk to you. >> always a pleasure to talk to you. >> an education, certainly. >>> next on nbc10 "@ issue," year after year after year people claim they get their flu shot and they immediately get sick right afterwards and they say the vaccination got me sick. true or false? >> flu vaccines fact and fiction. find out if getting the shot really can make you sick with the flu. >>> cases of the seasonal flu have already popped up in our area. doctors say getting vaccinated is your best defense against the environment. not everyone is convinced. we asked dr. ellen o'connor, medical director at thomas jefferson university hospital, to help us separate the fact from fiction about the flu shot. >>

a climatologist outside pasadena. >> this el nino is probably larger than the famous godzilla el nino of 1997-1998. this has had devastating impacts already all over the planet. >> this winter's el nino has already arrived. palm trees in mexico twisting and contorting in 160 mile-per-hour wins. that's what happened when hurricane patricia blew ashore in late october. the remnants of patricia also powrndepounded texas and the loa gulf course. scientists say make no mistake about it. this el nino is shaping up to be a monster. what is your biggest fear about the el nino that everyone is predicting this time around? >> that everybody will be completely overwhelmed in a way that we haven't seen before. i mean i can't imagine it being worse than 98 or 2010 but the possibility is there that it could be. it's just not knowing. >> for those who weathered the last monster el nino in laguna beach they figure it's the calm before the storm. michael okwu, al jazeera, laguna beach, california. >> that's "america tonight." tell us what you think at aljazeera.com/americatonight. talk to us on twitte

extremes but el nino is not the only factor influen influencing this winter as lauren explains. >> elisn't the only climate pattern we look at also the north atlantic oscillation has a big impact on winter time winter. when it's in the positive phase more wintertime temperatures in the delaware valley. it also brings us more mixed precipitation events like freezing rain and sleet as opposed to snow. but if you like hot cocoa and snowmen the negative phase of nao is for you. cold arctic air will spill into the delaware valley, chillier itemmers and creased potential for snowfall. >> kate. >> thanks lauren. what does all of this mean for our winter? temperatures will romaine well above average through the first half of wint winter. but february into march could feature pronounced shots of arctic air. which leaves the big question, how much snow are we getting? >> i really would like to know how much snow we're getting this year. >> if you can ask me one question about this winter what would it be. >> how much snow are we going to get? >> here's our projections for this winter. if the st

(el nino's impact) it's a weather term most of us are familier with... el nino. and it may have an even bigger impact on our winter than usual.(big winner) and... a siouxland man wins a half million dollars playing the lottery. 3 3 the polls are closed across siouxland tonight... as results come in for some important local elections. thanks for joining us tonight, i'm larry wentz, diana castillo is off. 3 3 in sioux city, mayor bob scott has won his second four- year term in office. he was unopposed.and sioux city councilwoman rhonda capron has won a second term as well.she defeats thomas venesky 1889 votes to 554.in other races of interest... charles holz of le mars wins a special election to replace retiring rep. chuck soderberg in the iowa house. he was running unopposed.voters in sioux center rejecting a bond issue to spend $4 million dollars to expand highway 75 through town. the measure fell 4% short of the 60% needed to pass, though the "yes" side *did* receive the most votes.voters in buena vista county approving extending a 1% local option sales tax.vote

>> el niÑo. >> el niÑo.>> el niÑo. >> reporter: everyone knows el niÑo brings warm waters to the pacificseas stretching all the way up to alaska which could be fueling this marine activity is something completely separate.>> there is another phenomenon called the blob which you might have heard of. basically, the blob is like a pool of warm water, unusually warm, all the gulf of alaska and the coast of california in the last year or two. the reason for that is actually related to the current california drought.>> reporter: these phenomena are converging at the same time. >> people have heard warm water, el niÑo must be here. but they are separate entities. only about half the time during el niÑo's do we see warmer than normal water along the coast. that tells me there's a randomness to that. it's not cause-and-effect. >> reporter: even though el niÑo is on everyone's minds, the blob could be creating the perfect storm of warm seas and wildlife conditions.>> the blob has an effect on the ecosystem similar to what el niÑo does. it disrupts the food, there are less nutrients. the thought wo

extremes but el nino is not the only factor influen influencing this winter as lauren explains. >> eltern we look at also the north atlantic oscillation has a big impact on winter time winter. when it's in the positive phase more wintertime temperatures in the delaware valley. it also brings us more mixed precipitation events like freezing rain and sleet as opposed to snow. but if you like hot cocoa and snowmen the negative phase of nao is for you. cold arctic air will spill into the delaware valley, chillier itemmers and creased potential for snowfall. >> kate. >> thanks lauren. what does all of this mean for our winter? temperatures will romaine well above average through the first half of wint winter. but february into march could feature pronounced shots of arctic air. which leaves the big question, how much snow are we getting? >> i really would like to know how much snow we're getting this year. >> if you can ask me one question about this winter what would it be. >> how much snow are we going to get? >> here's our projections for this winter. if the start of wintry mapes warm a

which is not very el niÑo like.systems, they have not been very el niÑo side as we get in to late november and december and the el niÑo warm water phases in dropping on in and that the storms should warm up. snow levels should increase their rainfall cumulations that should increase too. >> this is no time to start celebrating and backtracking on our water-saving waivers. do you agree with that? >> it drives me crazy. >> just a new normal. >> we hear el niÑo and i have buckets in the showers like you, we are all doing the bucket thing. and i notice now that they have rained a couple of times. so i think that we are in a drought climate in a mediterranean climate a dry summer wet winter as we will have issues with the wet weather. they worry me because we need them to get back to aqua first. but we need to live and change how we sort of do business. this drought thing was doing that. but with the word of the el niÑo, i get the vibe that people are forgetting that we have a big weather problem. >> i would say the chan

talking about one of the strongest el ninos. this is now the strongest el nino on record. here we go. talking about the strongest el nino ever recorded on oo weekly -- on a weekly basis. look at the graphics. warmer than average. stronger than that in 1997. we are as of today in uncharted territory. the part of the pacific ocean is 3.0 degrees celsius. never that warm until today. livermore 56 degrees outside. breezy in san francisco, the bay area breezy today. winds relax this evening. mid-50s and chilly tonight. el nino, hoping that means rain. not in november, not in december, it is january and february that get very wet and we continue into the spring. hope that happens because we need it. tonight we are clear and chilly. 39 napa, concord, livermore. forty seven oakland. -- 47 in oakland. a week where we will see none of el nino. there is the low that gave the tornado. there is a storm in the pacific northwest. our weather is dominated by a ridge of high pressure. heard that plenty. it will be that way this week. rain stays to the north. the high pressure builds closer

he goes to lake tahoe to go to seminars about el niÑo and the ski season.ay for sure. and that is kind of why i went into the little gambling aspect. >> what would you bet? >> we were so close to reno. so basically, a probability forecast. what is good, we can't guarantee a forecast. a great snow year in tahoe. but what is good, this is the first time since 1997, 1998 that we have an el niÑo to talk about. there is high hope. and we will see what happens. and i will say the developments up in the sierra over the past couple of weeks have been very nice. >> for sure. >> was that you snow boarding? there? >> no. no. no footage of me. yeah. i definitely had to look through the file footage. i wish that were me. >> all right. >> thanks mark. >> okay. >>> also, ktvu fox 2 news' el niÑo week continues on the 10:00 news. preparations homeowners are already making in the bay area for a wet winter ahead and we will talk about how much rain we could possibly see. >> and still to come on the 4, leading by example in a world with a lot of social media, we are sitting d

(**take sot**)"during el nino eplained part 1, i explained the mechanics of el nino. but in case you missed it. here's a refresher. during el nino the trade winds can cut off or even reverse, causing warm water to slosh back to our side of the pacific ocean. now when that happens the subtropical jet dominates, causing the polar jet to move much farther north keeping siouxland warm. i talked with mike gillispie, a hydrologist from the national weather service in sioux falls, south dakota, and he's going to tell us what we can expect here i siouxland is winter."(**take sot**)"generally across siouxland there are etty strong correlations of seeing above normal temperatures dung the winter months. that's a very consjstent pattern, it doesn't happen every time but with these last several strong el niqo's we've had, the last three that were similar what we're expecting this wintererwere all very much h above normal temperature wise across e regioio"(**take vo**)gillispie says that while we e will most likely be warmer than average, precipitation is ststl up in the air. (**t

"to understand el nino, you have to understand all 3 phases of enso-el nino sosohern oscillation. with these 3 phases you have el nino, la nina, and neutral conditions." "we're going to do an experiment to explain how el the neutral phase...trade winds are moderate...like this. just a bit of warm water move's west...*some* cold water moves up to the surface. when *la nina* starts...the trade winds get stronger.that pushes warm water west...and a *lot* of cold water comes up from below.when the trade winds weaken...that's when *el nino* happens...trade winds can shut off completely...even reverse.then we get warm water sloshing back east very quickly.it can even go down farther into the ocean than normal.el nino itself happens far away from siouxland...it's in the pacific ocean...but it can still affect weather here. during that first neutral phase...tradadwinds are normal. this is where the polar jetstream and the subtropical jetstream normally sit.during la nina...strong trade winds dominate...that makes the polar jet move south and the subtropical jet move north. that lets cool

el nino. the sports basement in san francisco has been in transition.g over from a full supply of bike rentals to snow gear. >> we're seeing 3x more ski leases at this point compared to last year. people aren't scared of the season this year. >> reporter: the warm water in the pacific is the trademark of el nino. they fuel the jet stream and may accepted a storm crowd barreling toward california. >> they're not little weak ones. >> they're good. they're giving us exactly what we need. >> reporter: this was october. this is november. sugar bowl is prepping for an early opening day. the resort is hoping a new season will erase the memories of four challenging years. >> when you don't see a lot of the skiers and riders turning out, and you're not getting big visitation numbers, you do have to really put control measures on a lot of your operations. >> reporter: this lift is powered down last march, wrapping up another very disappointing snow year up in the sierra. at the time, the main headline was the extreme drought across the entire state. now there's b

el nino has an 84% chance of peaking in late fall or early wier. the climate prediction center says there is a 95% chance that these conditions will last through the winter, gradually weakening through spring 2016. here in iowa, that often means above-normal temperatures. cold weather still happens, but extreme cold is generally less severe and less frequent. snow tends to be lighter too. the last two strong el nino years in 1982 and 1997 gave iowans warm temperatures and less snow. snow. but here's where i i have a little differenentake on el nino than the weather service. several very cold iowa winters occurred during el nia episodes including the winters of 1976-1977, 1977- 1978 and more recently 2009- 2010. in other words, el nia does not guarantee a warm winter, but tends to shift the probabilities in that direction. direction.this year's global sea surface temperatures do not resemble those of the warm el nino winters. the data i'm looking at points to the colder el nino's of 1963 and 2009. those years in iowa b bh hahawarm october's that car

pumped up by that el nino water. they are protecting this will be a -- nasa's model is extremely aggressive. all eyes will be on the skies to see what this brings. weather history will repeat itself. bill martin, ktvu, fox news. >>> bill takes a look at a stretch of warm water that could explain the wild ocean animal activity we have seen recently. we are bringing you here all week long. >>> after bring ufc fighter ronda rousey takes to twitter what she is promising to her fans. it's here, the first gummy multivitamin... ...from centrum. a complete, and tasty way to support... ...your energy... ...immunity... and metabolism like never before. centrum multigummies. see gummies in a whole new light. iit's just a cough.ur cough, you'd see how often you cough all day and so would everyone else. new robitussin 12 hour delivers fast, powerful cough relief that lasts up to twelve hours. new robitussin 12 hour cough relief. because it's never just a cough. >>> taking a live look at the dow. we are seeing what appears to be a

but el nino comes at a cost. those storms in the winter of '97-98 caused half a billion dollars in damage and killed 17 people in california. still, after four years of intense drought, the state needs all the rain and snow it can los angeles. >>> police in new orleans tonight are looking for a suspect following a dramatic shooting. surveillance footage shows the victim, peter gold, a tulane medical student, being shot as he tried to stop a gunman who was dragging a woman into an suv. the suspect tried to shoot gold again in the head, but the gun jammed. gold is expected to survive. the suspect is 21-year-old euric cain, whose criminal record includes weapons charges. >>> up next, the boots that are big-time. >>> winter weather means a busy time for fashion brands, always trying to stay ahead of the latest trend. but as one old school retailer best way to keep current is to remain the same. here's don dahler. >> reporter: they're rubber-bottomed, terminally unsexy, and virtually unchanged for over 100 years. and

el niÑo's rains may not end until just before next summer.ll see more rainfall this december but not as much as last year. january february, circle that. it will likely be very wet and stay wetter than average all the way until april or may. december is next week el niÑo's rainfall almost here. let's look at what's going on tonight. it is not rain, it is cold. we're down to 36 in livermore, 34 in santa rosa. 37 in los gatos, st. helena in -- his 32. san francisco is 48. the city will drop to 43. concord, 44. the coldest nights this january. if you are late traveler tomorrow morning, you lucked out. it will be dry but chilly. we have this low pressure area giving us rainfall. a gave a lot of snow to the sierra today. where is it? sitting over nevada. it is not going to move for fordham more days. the low stays over nevada. we always have a counterclockwise low-pressure. the lowest to our west. there would be win coming to the south. our wind is coming from the north, alberta in canada. it will stay that way through sunday. nice will be called,

el niÑo is right behind them.e rest of the stuff and the warm blob and the oscillation, all the different currents out there. these are just some of the small minute players. the whole deal. when i say that they popped the record to the rest of the pacific that trumps anything that they are doing. but in the water, yes, the last two years, they were setting records at 68 degrees with 7- degree readings. >> the normal is? >> oh gosh 58, 59. >> when you hear how bad it was, '97, '98, you're talking about billions of dollars worth of damages. what can we do? just wait and see? we don't know what's happening. we can't really prepare for it. >> be careful what you wish for because we love the idea of el niÑo, right? because we need the rain, but you're right. if we get what they've got in texas or the east coast, if you get 12 inches of rain and 12 hours that you'll have a massive problem. it's sort of careful what you wish for. and that we are expecting a good amount of rain this season and with this very strong el ni

concern about the approaching el nino. has a lot of people looking at making repairs before it is too late. with a 100% electric nissan leaf... what will you do? how far will you go? how much will you see? electrify the world. now with a class-leading 107 miles on a charge, the nissan leaf is the best selling electric car in america. the drought is affecting at pg&e we've definitely put a focus on helping our agricultural customers through the drought. when they do an energy efficiency project and save that money they feel it right in their pocket book. it's exciting to help a customer with an energy efficiency project because not only are they saving energy but they are saving water. we have a lot of projects at pg&e that can help them with that and that's extremely important while we're in a drought. it's a win for the customer and it's a win for california. together, we're building a better california. >> pam :making recreational marijuana legal in california. is one step closer to coming to a vote. four people working

." >>> -- we've looked at the preparations for el nino.you need to know to get ready for a stormy season. with a 100% electric nissan what will you do? how far will you go? how much will you see? electrify the world. now with a class-leading 107 miles on a charge, the nissan leaf is the best selling electric car in america. >>> instead far more days of record heat and many are hoping that it will bring in much- needed rain. >> we've taken a different look today. today meteorologist steve paulson shows us the preparations already underway in the possibility of the very wet winter. >> reporter: chain saws, falling branches, limbs coming down. preparing for the potential el niÑo power storms. >> this year is more than the last ten years. people were worried about trees and they are falling in to the houses. >> reporter: his phone has been ringing non-stop. homeowners are worried about trees and limbs falling in to the yard or even worse. >> it will be stronger than the last 12 years. anything could happen right now. >> it is not only falling

. >>> still ahead tonight, deadly flooding, massive mudslides, al roker with how the extreme el nino moving into the country is going to wreak havoc on millions of people. >>> why a classic american brand is changing one of its recipes. it's not the only company doing it. >>> a major warning now about a weather threat that could trigger disaster after disaster in our country. a particularly powerful el nino we've been telling you about is coming, and in fact some of its effects may already be here. al roker looks at how it will impact the millions in california in our special series of reports, extreme el nino. >> reporter: a four-year historic drought has california begging for water, now it may get it this winter in what's being called a godzilla of an el nino. >> this is larger, more intense. and it's still growing. >> reporter: el nino is causing temperatures in the normally cold pacific ocean to rise. while it's only three degrees, it's expected to wreak havoc on the golden state. >> the subtropical jet stream will shift further north. riding that john edwards will be a series o

. >>> now to an el nino update. new numbers show the odds of seeing more rain in the bay area this winter. has gone up. take a look at this animation. it compares the last major el nino back in 1997 to the conditions we're seeing in the pacific right now. the areas in red indicate above average ocean temps. this year, it's not just rivaling 1997, as you can see. it's now stronger. rob mayeda is tracking what it means for the bay area. >> we have been watching this closely, '97-'98, the last strong el nino. in terms of sea surface temperatures, we have eclipsed that with temperatures running warmer than at the same time in '97. still looking at that 95% chance that we will see a strong el nino. very strong, continuing through the winter. what has changed just two months ago, you saw about a 40% chance of above average rainfall for the bay area. now that's greater than 50%. in southern california, about 60% to 70% chances of above average rainfall. so far this year, it's been a little confusing because if you have bee

take a look at '82, '83 el nino, 225%. raj and janelle, just because we get warmer storms in here does not mean we'll not be left with any sierra snow. >> track the forecast for your neighborhood 24 hours a day with our free nbc bay area app. >>> we reported extensively this el nino rain will not wipe out our drought. experts say there are ways to solve the drought. so why aren't we doing it? senior investigative reporter steven stock back from the middle east, continues our series on the drought. steven? >> reporter: raj, we found companies right here in silicon valley that have developed technologies to solve our water crisis but the ceos of those companies tell us they can't get any traction here in california. we went behind the scenes to see how the technologies work and found fascinating things that have attracted investors but can't get much attention from california policymakers. the company ceos blame the state's maze of rules, regulations and 412 different water districts for the problem. so these silicon valley

but "el nino" comes at a cost. those storms in the winter of '97-98 caused half a billion dollars in damage and killed 17 people in california. still, after four years of intense drought, the state needs all the rain and snow it can get. ben tracy, cbs news, los angeles. >>glor: police in new orleans tonight are looking for a suspect following a dramatic shooting. surveillance footage shows the victim peter gold, a tulane medical student, being shot as he tried to stop a gunman who was dragging a woman into an s.u.v. the suspect tried to shoot gold again in the head but the gun jammed. gold is expected to survive, the suspect is 21-year-old yuric cain whose criminal record includes weapons charges. up next, the boots that are back big time. this is brad. his day of coaching begins with knee pain, when... hey brad, wanna trade the all day relief of two aleve for six tylenol? what's the catch? there's no catch. you want me to give up my two aleve for six tylenol? no. for my knee pain, nothing beats my aleve. with too

pumped up by that warm el nino water. this winters' el nino is extremely aggressive. all eyes will be on the skies to see what this winter brings and weather history will repeat itself. bill martin, ktvu fox news. >> '82 and '83. all roads were closed back in monterrey. there is a graphic we are going to show you. it is the most common used region. it's the threshold and provides a good measure. it just checked in at 3.0 degrees degrees celcious. everything going up. >>> tonight bill martin takes a look at the stretch of warm water that could explain the wild ocean animal activity that we have seen. >>> we could use something to cheer us up, to warm us up. we will show you the video. it was a sea otter name rider. >> rider, it is time to wake up. rider. >> i'm not that cute when i do that. rider lives in san francisco's aquarium. they join us live this morning. is this something that he has done before? how did you get it on camera? >> they are both about two years old which is human equivalent of puberty in teenage years. >> does he mingle with other river otters or

even wants to know what's behind it. >> el nino.dy knows it pumps up our winder storms, but these warm seas stretching all the way up to alaska is actually something completely separate. >> there's another phenomenon out there in the pacific called the blob which you have may have heard already. it's like a pool of unusually warm waters off the gulf of alaska and europe that happened over the last year or two and the reason for that is not known but we think it's actually related to current california drought. >> reporter: he has been watching the two phenomena. they are recently converging at the same time. >> they're separate entities and only about half the time during el ninos do we see warm water on the coast and that means there's another cause an effect. >> reporter: it might actually be the blob that could be creating the perfect storm of warm seas and weather conditions leading to more wildlife sightings. >> similar to what el nino does. disrupted the food supply, the thought would be these would be amplified any more. hump

. >> this year is a big el niÑo event. if you are a snow lover you want a week to moderate el niÑo.f you hate the snow then you are pulling for a strong el niÑo. what will it be this winter? we are looking at a strong el niÑo, one of the strongest ever recorded. there was a big el niÑo in 1983, some of you may have remembered this, the presidents' day storm of february 1983. we can go from feast to famine if the supply of cold air is not there. in 1997 we did more frisbee throwing the end skiing. so, here at the weather team prediction for the winter, we are calling for above average temperatures so, probably not a white christmas. when it comes to snowfall we are forecasting less than 10 inches in southern maryland, 15-20 in the far northern suburbs, all below average but, west of interstate 81 and in the mountains there will be 25-40 inches. i went with that because i think we will see a little more cold air in the mountains. first measurable snowfall of 1 inch i will go with january 17, 2016. there you have it. >> that is fantastic. strong el niÑo. >> you are very happy. if you g

. >>> still ahead tonight, deadly flooding, massive mudslides, al roker with how the extreme el nino moving into the country is going to wreak havoc on millions of people. >>> why a classic american brand is i (state your name), do solemnly swear that i will support and defend the constitution of the united states against all enemies foreign and domestic... bring us your aching and sleep deprived. bring us those who want to feel well rested. aleve pm. the only one to combine a sleep aid... plus the 12 hour pain relieving strength of aleve. be a morning person again if a denture were to be put under a microscope, we can see all the bacteria that still exists. polident's unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes, killing 99.99% of odor causing bacteria. for a cleaner, fresher, brighter denture every day. [ male announcer ] pain not sitting too well? burning to feel better? itching for relief? preparation h offers the most maximum strength solutions for all hemorrhoid symptoms. doctors recommend most. preparation h. don't stand for hemorrhoids. so what about that stock? sure th

it could change in a heartbeat. >> reporter: leaving a this monster el nino looming in the wings. al roker, nbc news, los angeles. >>> we're back in a moment with late word about a former president's battle with cancer. sometimes the present looked bright. sometimes romantic. there were tears in my eyes. and tears in my eyes. and so many little things that we learned were really the biggest things. through it all, we saved and had a retirement plan. and someone who listened and helped us along the way. because we always knew that someday the future wou be the present. every someday needs a plan. talk with us about your retirement today. the cold truth is, there's no easy way to do your job when you're sick. tough symptoms need alka-seltzer plus cold & cough it's four cold symptom fighters put you back in control. for adults with an advanced lung cancer called "squamous non-small cell", previously treated with platinum-based chemotherapy, it's not every day something this big comes along. a chance to live longer with... opdivo, nivolumab. opdivo is the first and only immunotherapy

is a mudslide in livermore a preview of what el nino mae brick this season? >> we have a lot of mud tonight. terry, our hillsides are messy and dangerous and we're seeing it where you are tonight 37. >> yeah. you can take a look just right behind me. patterson pass road mud oozed across it this afternoon during that deluge that jeff was talking about. cars got stuck in this stuff. a lot of hillsides are just as unstable in much of the bay area. >> the mud oozed on to patterson pass road this afternoon stranding an suv, closing the road. >> it just rained harder than we could handle. the hail came in, lightning started coming, we had to close the road for safety reasons. >>. >> nicki had to wait and wait to get home. >> i'm just coming home from work and the road is closed. i live right here. this is from all the fire, so i'm used to it. >> the hillsides are bare from all the fires that have burned here lately. the national weather service this afternoon issued a warning for debris flows. take a look at this map showing landslide risk in the bay area. where do

two very strong el niÑos in 1982, and again in 1997.ith widespread flooding but not until january into february. >> i can say honestly, we are more prepared for this one than we have been for any el niÑo in our past history. >> reporter: pg&e has been preparing for potential flooding for months. >> current guidance is suggesting we are going to have above normal precipitation across california. >> reporter: they have held disaster preparedness exercises in anticipation of mud slides and power outages. >> el niÑo will present challenges not only to pg&e but other first responders. we believe we are going to have a higher frequency of storm activity. especially in our southern part of our service territory. >> reporter: using my observer's date in san francisco, normal rainfall for san francisco seasonal is just over 23.5 inches of rain. but the last two very strong el niÑo years had nearly double that amount. in 1982-83, we had greater than 46 inches of rain and in 1997- 98, we had over 47 inches of rain. southern and central california

el nino's rains may not end until just before next summer.of this -- none of this is a guarantee. the weather will do what the weather wants to do but el nino is the strongest leading indicated their we have. three takeaways, increased december rainfall but likely not as much as last year. january and february, that's the strongest signature. the wettest weather will likely happen then. and it has the potential to be very wet. finally wetter than average is also likely to continue into spring. we are talking march and april and perhaps even may. back in 1998, we had four inches of rainfall in san francisco in may. we'll talk about a forecast for the next several days, of course the cold is front and center now. we'll have that coming up. >>> thank you. flooding from el nino could change california farming in a big way. reporter lee martinez on why some central valley farmers plan to put their crops under water. >> basically on each side of the vine, you have a half gallon emitter. so every hour, this vine will get one gallon of water. >> repo

he's been researching el nino since the 80s. computer models have come a long way since then and he studies all of them. >> this is a new experimental approach that's been taken by noaa coordinating a set of seven models from different parts of north america. >> reporter: a guaranteed forecast will never come out of this research office but redmond is leaning toward an optimistic outlook. >> normally i'd be kind of with el nino. i'd be pretty cautious. i'm slightly less cautious this year in my thinking that we could be in for a pretty decent winter. >> reporter: this footage is from the 1983 el nino, a great snow year. the snowfall at donner summit crested above the average of nearly 400 inches. same story for the el nino of the '90s. what about this season? the nearby casinos remind us there are no guarantees, only probabilities. >> if you had to bet over, under? >> i'd bet on the over this time around. the donner summit, i might be willing to bet on an extra hundred inches or so if i had a few bucks to play with. >> above ave

el nino has an 84% chance of peaking in late fall or early winter. the climate prediction center says there is a 95% chance that these conditions will last through the winter, graduauay weakening through spring 2016. here in iowa, that often means above-normal temperatures. cold weather still happens, but extreme cold is generally less severe and less frequent. snow tends to be lighter too. e last two strong el nino years in 1982 and 1997 gave iowans warm temperatures and less snow. snow. but here's where i have a little different take on el nino than the weather service. several very cold iowa winters occurred during el nia episodes including the winters of 1976-1977, 1977- 1978 and more recently 2009- 2010. in other wowos, el nia does not guarantee a warm winter, but tends to shift the probabilities in that direction. direction.this year's global sea surface temperatures o not resemble those of the warm el nino wininrs. the data i'm looking at points to the colder el nino's of 1963 and 2009. those years in iowa both had warm october's that carried

question, will el niÑo and the drought?>> we cannot say whether el niÑo will help or not yet.drove through the rain to talk about drought. we need to plan for the drought and el niÑo this year.>> reporter: how are we going to do that? fill up sandbags for flooding men at -- and then worry about the drought.>> the reservoir is about this big. we care about where the water will fall. we want to do our best to capture the water that falls from el niÑo in the reservoir.>> reporter: in the last couple of years we have been hearing about drought as the new normal. as many of us have cut back on water use, we look around and see the golf courses are still green and there are developments going up left and right that will use more water. i am starting to wonder if this is for real or if we are trying to keep commercial customers happy. >> the drought is real. it is a pound -- a painful circumstance. regarding the golf courses, this is the fourth year of the drought and one of the worst in history. we need to rethink what we are doing. regarding using the water for golf courses, and ou