el-erian: i can. referring to the separation principle, which is you use monetary policy and interest rate policy for inflation and use other tools, which they have a lot of as we have seen, for financial stability. there are clearly interactions but i think it is correct to start with a presumption of separation of policy tools. otherwise, if you use one policy tool for multiple objectives, you end up in the model middle. tom: the overlay years is critical and you have tangible experience on this as deputy director imf in the early 1990's. krista lena corgi ava dropped a bombshell yesterday with a five-year 3% growth model for the imf. how does that affect america? to have that grimness which we have not seen since the early 1990's, to have that grimness, how does that affect people watching and listening? dr. el-erian: so let's add two more data points p last week the world bank came out with a study that showed potential growth was coming down. so it is not just actual growth, it is potential and t

mohamed el-erian. can you down to the opening bell , equity slightly negative.ext hour. ♪ at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. this is electric, powered by lexus. ♪ the first-ever all-electric rz. ♪ these days, our households depend on the internet more and more. families grow, houses get smarter, and our demands on the internet increase. that's why we just boosted speeds for over 20 million xfinity customers, on us. so you get more of the speed you need for day and night streaming. more speed you need when you're work from homeing. and more speed you need as your family keeps growing. check in on your current speed through the xfinity app or upgrade to the speed that's right for you today. hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no

mohamed el-erian moem. >>> good morning we're going to hear from mohamed el-erian just ahead.ing plus pharma companies are worried after a federal judge makes decision on abortion pill. the final hour of "squawk box" starts right now >>> good morning and welcome back to "squawk box. becky is off today as we were just mentioning, all quiet on the futures front mostly down about four points the nasdaq is bullish. it has steepened in its losses that we've seen this morning we're kind of in wait and see mode treasuries, a little backup. the two-year is almost back to 4% not quite. and bit coin has a bid, right around 28,000 for most of the three-day weekend, 28,300. i don't know, frank. that was a mealy mouthed answer, they can't say whether you're better or they're better >> everybody doesn't watch at 7 and 8. >> they better it's on them if they don't it's not my problem. >> back at 7, andrew asked was chat gtp better man me i actually asked and i put it on twitter. >> it was not about -- we had got i don't know into a conversation during the commercial break -- >> i said frank h

it's been postponed until tomorrow morning when we come back, mohamed el-erian joins us.squawk box" will be right back. >>> good morning get ready for earnings corporate reports really ramping up this week we got banks and key tech companies and tesla. >>> and more insight on whether the u.s. is headed for recession. that's a topic we will debate in depth this hour. and actor and entrepreneur ryan reynolds will bring his wit and wallet to the financial sector we have a special interview with him on his latest investment as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now >>> good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square, i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin and up over 50 points on the dow. take a quick look at treasuries, the 10-year and 2-year, which we are tracking on not just a daily basis, an hour live basis. 3.53 now all the way back to 4 had.14 one two year >> we are awaiting a possible launch on spacex's "starship" and would represent a giant leap forward in elon musk's space company. they

let's speak now to mohamed el—erian, chief economic adviser at allianz and president of queens' collegeinternational monetary fund. thank you for being with us. what did you make of what you saw today? there is quite a mixed picture, it is fair to say, some economies performing really well and others find it difficult to shake off those restrictions. why the big difference?— restrictions. why the big difference? ., ., , difference? initial conditions were different, which _ difference? initial conditions were different, which means _ difference? initial conditions were different, which means the - different, which means the resilience was different. and the agility is very different. we see within developed world, the us bouncing back, but we see the uk lagging. within the emerging world, we see china and india going back up to 5% growth. so it is a combination of where you started on how quickly you have been able to react. what of where you started on how quickly you have been able to react. what do ou you have been able to react. what do you consider— you have been able to react. wha

this time last week mohamed el-erian said it is not a crisis.hat is in a word, wet -- why is the word so important? mayra: it is important because unfortunately it starts to be overuse. this is bank turmoil caused by serious lack of good risk management. there is no excuse for that. silicon valley bank, signature, all of those banks needed to have been back on the basics a long time ago, managing their interest rate risk, managing their liquidity. we have to be careful not to overuse worries. this is banking turmoil. it is not a crisis created a crisis it was when we are talking about massive interconnection with the banks and the real economy as well as of course as corporations 2007-2000 nine was a crisis. this is not a crisis. i am hoping it is not a go that way. jonathan: appreciate your perspective. this from mohammed yesterday, we talked about that briefly. he also said it is not a credit crunch, he said it is a credit contraction. it is a difference. credit crunch is economy wide. credit contraction has should be true effects and we shoul

. >>> and ahead, mohamed el-erian will speak about the latest. box" will be right back. >> announcer: cnbc program is sponsored by cfp professional. t? no, don't worry about that. here we go. - asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - yeehaw! - do you have a question? - are you a certified financial planner™? - yes. i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. find your cfp® professional at letsmakeaplan.org. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. >>> good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq

i believe mohamed el-erian will be in the studio.e awesome to get his insights and at 4:30 p.m., many people will be logged on and carefully watching these data points from the federal reserve, not only on the discount window lending but the balance sheet which has picked up the last couple of weeks. jonathan: i'm looking forward to it. i'm always locked on. the light is always green. thanks for being with us. this was from moments ago -- he said the credit crunch has started with 71 banks in the dallas fed district was affected by the bank situation. do you agree the credit crunch has started? >> absolutely, you might call it a credit crumble but the direction is ambiguous. its not just about deposits leaving the system. they can come out of small banks and they can find their way into the large banks and into money market funds. this is a way of recycling the deposits and bringing them back to the small banks. i'm not so much concerned about the flight of deposits as the ideology of a credit crunch. i'm more concerned with the regu

bloomberg opinion columnist mohamed el-erian sees positive signs for first-quarter earnings and a positiveise to the upside. he tells us why the feds move this week should be an easy decision, but why the following will be -- why the following one will be more complex. >> i would be shocked if they don't hike interest with by 25 points. we got quite a bit of inflation data today and yesterday, it suggests it is harder than where the fed would like it. wages of 5.1% will worry the fed. so we will get 25 basis points. it is what happens next. it gets really complicated, because the fed has this tri -lemma -- how do you bring down inflation, decreased economic activity and maintain financial stability? then we are getting really conflicting data because the underlying uncertainty is now structural. not just cyclical, it is structural. >> that makes it even more difficult. we have talked about a federal reserve that you have suggested is too data-dependent. highly data-dependent. is that what you're getting here as well? >>>> the fed has three problems. one is that there is no strategic underp

it's clear when you speak to mohamed el-erian and also people from pimco they put the bank of englandfferent camp to other central banks because they came out front talking about the convocations. although it was tricky for the bank of england, makes or seven months ago, it does in the air on a better footing may be because of the honesty they had with the market. let's look at some of the stocks on the move or european markets overall. if you look at the asset classes, there has been a change in asset classes because of the surprise production cut by opec which took everyone by surprise. came across people did double takes. the whatsapp messages were 100% on fire. if you look at stocks they are unchanged. the ftse 100 is gaining .5%. that is because it is oil rich with bp and shell. though stocks are gaining 4-5% on the back of opec-plus's move. it is giving a natural lift to some of the ftse while the european markets including the ftse. energy is gaining 3.5%. this is why i said stocks on the back foot. most stocks are down but there's a huge energy boost with all of the main playe

you have mohamed el-erian join you? jonathan: we do. near $69 a barrel on west texas intermediate. 75 .06 on american oil right now. what is equilibrium dynamics of oil look like and can acknowledge oil to a $69 handle? amrita: if you get a few poor macroeconomic data points it starts to spoof the market a lot, do not rule anything out. what is fascinating is crude prices have been the most correlated with -- you should have a look at the chart. bond volatility has spiked this week and that has been one of the big sellers of wife crude has sold out huge amounts. -- of why crude is sold out of huge amounts. for joyce sox, fundamentals tightening quicker than we have expected. the market is not paying any attention to it. it does not believe it. tom: this is a critical observation. the market is tightening up. why is it price going to more people suggested it should go higher? amrita: for me, big chunk of what has been going on in the day today trading is just the fact people, do not have enough capital. we have seen a lot of funds take a

el-erian and to me it's the el-erian field of game theory right now. i suggest the institutions including fbi see look at this as a discrete bank issue and not something that has contagion to other banks. i'm just guessing. jonathan: the latest news and less 24 hours after all this and there is speculation at the moment, they could be selling up to $100 billion in assets. this will be painful it they go in that direction. lisa: the bigger question is it a first republic issue and svb issue or is it a broader issue? we saw earnings after the bell that were stable. this is a model. it's an economic model and at what point are stock traders saying this economic muddle is goldilocks? tom: we have to wait for the data including economic data today. the muddle is many different narratives. you can choose your narrative that's all there is to it. i'm not surprised by the tech dominance we saw and what we will see. one thing yesterday that struck me is they announced a massive share buyback at ups. i'm sure the audience will sound off on this. within that is t

tom: the cambridge five is mohamed el-erian and for others.ing he is a spy? tom: this park inspected 1963 and we grew up in an america with this arrogance that error intelligence community was far superior to those crazy brits. that's gone. with snowden and this mess. annmarie: i would say so although the u.k. in united states, the five countries share intelligence so there is concern for those countries that share a deep amount of intelligence with the united states with their messaging resources that has been breached. jonathan: you mentioned intelligence gathering being compromised. have we compromised any individuals with this? annmarie: we don't know yet and that's with this investigation is about and that's why the u.s. administration is concerned their allies are also concerned but they are not trying to have this public outcry. they are trying to do this in back channels through diplomatic back channels to try to save face but it is a huge issue. tom: the washington post headlines are catching up with this. would you say we don't know

jonathan: the big banks are benefiting from this, this was mohamed el-erian at the imf meeting last weekli basak, the numbers look good. she and ali -- sonali: coming in line with expectations and a little above expectations are the net charge-offs. this is a time where analysts are watching for how consumer credit is doing. so long as they are lending a little more, wall street is accepting they will lose a little money on loans, not more than expected. through the roof on fixed income trading. let's see how long that boost lasts for. jp morgan, citigroup, bank of america through the roof. non-interest expectations above interest as they tried to gain share. jonathan: how do these numbers compare to what we heard from j.p. morgan last week? sonali: when brian moynihan waits to tell you what they expect for the year in interest income. when jp morgan raised fixations by billions of dollars, pressure on bank of america to keep up. you have average deposits declined by 3%, an interesting number to keep an eye on. deposit flight is at bay. a record number of digital logins, exceeding $3 bil

mohamed el-erian watching in england, he is very impressed. looking at the importance of the oil decision, looking at the multi-credentialed analysis of oil that we will get from ed morris in a moment. also noticing that could icing the at a win for the mets -- lisa: i do wonder how many other looks forward get completely revised on the heels of what happened during the first few months of this year. honestly, this has been a tremendous roller coaster. we are poised for another one with a lot of disparate views. the take away, people are not shifting. they are hunkering down in their belief and saying either that the weather is going change and you guys are not buying enough canned goods, or you guys are not smelling the roses because the sun is still out. tom: still -10% one year trailing. dow jones, -4% one year trailing. nasdaq 100, -14% even with that bank up first quarter. -- bangup first quarter. the healing quarter. a bull market victory. lisa: which is the reason why some people think that tech keeps rallying because it lost so much an

tom: mohamed el-erian generous to be here with us on jobs day. holding court at queens college.ncredibly important guest is important, so we will get right to it with the gentleman from king's college. adam joins us now from columbia university. this barely describes his contribution to the discussion we are having on what the world looks like in one year, two years, three years. what's the difference between king's college and queens college? they fight each other? [laughter] >> walls and rowing competitions. >> are they far apart from each other? >> they back onto each other. >> we should get you both on. next kudos to him for doing that job. tom: he was very emotional about it, actually. i mentioned it to him and he said that what was so urgent and he didn't expect this were the superbright kids from these really difficult backgrounds that have to make this huge jump to the highfalutin culture of cambridge. adam: can be difficult. tom: intimidating. right now we are intimidating ourselves, with great respect adam posen, who i thought had a great essay on globalization. in the

jonathan: looking forward to mohamed el-erian so i can take a little break.percent. jobless claims in america are coming up next. ♪ you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. as a business owner, your bottom line investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network, with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to 75% a year. and it's only available to comcast busi

tom: i went back and forth with mohamed el-erian there was a 3.1 deviation joan. there seems like there are dynamics beginning to happen. the cliche is raised to the bottom. what does the race look like when we look at nations that are forced to raise interest rates? george: the market is embedded in this framework. if the economy is slowing the dollar since to do well. this is an unusual cycle, last year you had dollar exceptionalism and all the countries outside the u.s. suffered from the energy shock. these are now reversing which is why we see reverse divergence. the fed will be the first in the easing cycle. we do not know when but we have high confidence that is the case because there are a few things happening in the u.s. at different from the rest of the world. the labor market is about to ease but we have to look at fiscal policy. when people try to predict where fed funds will be in six months, 10 months, it's impossible to make that prediction without knowing what will happen around the debt ceiling. the last time it happened the fed did an operation tw

mohamed el-erian wrote about it next couple of days.aid you can pause and you can hold through to year end which is implied in the dot plot, you can pause and then you can do nothing which is what the market believes or you can pause and the risk is here but you can pause and start hiking again and that could be problematic. tom: to me, it's the access, is not a pause of one meeting. no one is pricing in where we are in september if we have a stasis in central bank policy. jonathan: it wasn't so long ago we were talked about 50 basis point interest rate hikes that got in the way because we had a banking shock over the last month. does that come back on the table ? they are pushing this idea that the fallout for the banking shock will be limited and means the fed has to go further than the fed is implying now. lisa: the quiet part is how important is it to get back to 2% inflation? that's the crucial issue. people say the fed should cut rates and be less restrictive, those people tend to believe it's ok if we are patient possibly for 10

jonathan: mohamed el-erian talked about last week, saying you cannot call it a credit crunch.ee. jonathan: he thinks it will hit pockets of the economy and bigger ways than others and perhaps commercial real estate is a feature of that. tom: that goes to the political tension here with the president's announcement of reelection. the two candidates got to segment parts of america to win. jonathan: the president making a formal announcement for a second term saying let's finish the job so let's catch up with anne-marie. the question we are facing is whether we have more freedom or less freedom. i know what i want the answer to be in this is not the time to be complacent and that's why i'm running for look -- for reelection. your thoughts on washington this morning? annmarie: this was highly expected and we knew the announcement could come as soon as today. this is bidens anniversary of announcing his first campaign when he ran in 2020. this has nostalgia to it but this sets up that biden can get a team around him outside the white house to focus just on his reelection. he has ev