. >> sure, basically in order to win the presidency you've got to get 270 electoral college votes.can basically do is really quickly take a look at which ones are solid. which one are guaranteed. >> eliot: democrats will win new york, why spend monday there. >> why spend monday there, you'll get new york's electoral college votes. all the campaigns concentrate on the swing states. we arewe hear about the swing states but it's the electoral college votes that have them focus on the swing states. the person who actually got the highest popular vote ends up becoming president. >> eliot: the best example of that. >> 2000, al gore. >> eliot: he doesn't talk about it much but he got the popular vote. but he didn't get the electoral vote. >> we remember 2000 for butterfly ballots but al gore won the popular vote but he didn't win the electoral college, so he didn't become president. >> eliot: you don't want the president just focusing on those states that are in play, swing states, but a state that is a swing states almost necessarily gets more presidential attention, and attention from c

solid obama states 14 of them represent 184 electoral college votes. if you add kentucky, tennessee, georgia, to the 1 states that romney has. you add those states with bah and 184 to 181 in solid states for each candidate. the rest of is it up for gra grabs. >> bret: joe, talk about a convention bounce. we have don't see one of yet. tough. holiday weekend. you have the democratic convention this week. >> the non-incumbency point gets five points. it expect fa for romney. but we won't be able to see it not completely because as you said, we are at the democratic convention. that is going to start, the pendulum swinging the other way. you know, i think later on we have to see how big the gap is. but i think the bounce itself might be masked how close the conventions are together >> in the modern rare is only the second time conventions were back to back. we're likely to see the effect of the bounce mitigated by. that we ought to look at gallup polls and others cup weeks before the republican convention and see how the respective party bounces settle out

in presidential campaigns because of the electoral college. in all but two states the winner of the popular vote is awarded all its electoral votes. those votes equal the state's number of congressman plus senators. the white house goes to the candidate who gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes. the system is as old as the u.s. constitution. though many argue it is one part that needs to go. guaranteeing who ever wins the national popular vote wins the white house is a goal of richard cotty, a democratic state senator from new jersey. >> when you hear the words electoral college, you think what. >> 1776. i mean it's outdated. >> jeff: exhibit a for him, the disputed election of 2000, won by george w. bush, even though al gore won half a million more votes. >> you get another situation like that, bingo bango, we got it. >> jeff: what cotty got in his home state is a law that would require new jersey to award the electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote no matter who wins the state. seven other states have passed laws

fail barack obama did it you're obviously an advocate for eradicating the institution of the electoral college all night it states rights because every vote has to count this is a system that's not applied anywhere else in the world not applied to any other election in the united states when that one will run for dog or how can this be done easily or a requirement in chairs between democrats republicans they're obviously not interested in changing that system the pianist is around it the people after the mandal there are a lot of things that people demand that they don't think it will be have to be persistent and truly demanded they have to threaten the vote of model office you've got to threaten if you don't change the electoral college you won't be sitting there next year that's the only way they respond it's the threat that they could lose their using the american people could really get worked up enough about the electoral college when they have their for all these other things going on hold to deal with difficult but you know the electoral college was good when they put it in you know why

if you don't change the electoral college you won't reset and there are next year that's the only way they respond it's the threat that they could lose their job the american people could really get worked up enough about the electoral college when they have their for all these other things going on in the world to deal with difficult but you know the electoral college was good when they put it in you know why you had to travel by horseback to washington that's why it was there it's the only election like that in this country i've been a mayor you when you get the most votes wins governor congress senate jesse the syrian crisis the conflict has been gripping really the world for over a year and a half now what kind of role if any should the united states be playing in this in this whole conflict and if you were president what would you do knowing that. their business what about the whole idea of the united states trying to help out the syrian people who have the right to stand up against their government so there could be syrian people so as u.s. president you would have all of that o

caller: i have a question about this electoral college. is that a fair system, or do we need to eliminate that and go vote the vote? how would that affect the outcome of the presidency? guest: well, i think there is a reasonably strong case to be made on substantive grounds about the electoral college. one of the things that really discourages people who don't live in states like virginia were ohio or florida is that the election is really reduced, many of them, to a spectator role. the very clear ideological partisan leanings of their own state, they know it will vote democratic regardless of what they do or republican regardless of what they do. instead of having a national campaign, we have three or four little campaigns in a few battleground states. va benefits from this system, but for the larger turnout in the country any more engaged public, i can understand the caller's frustration with the electoral college system. what we have to add, though, is that there's almost no chance that a constitutional amendment would ever passed muste

the electoral college calculations don't matter, it is going to be a sweepup. we don't want four more years of the obama economy. and so what we could look back and say, all this stuff about bain and car elevators, doesn't matter. >> rose: do you think that will be the way we look back at it or not, or less so. >> that somehow their emphasis that are you better off than you were four years ago t will be in the end, whatever face you want to use, at the end of the day. >> when all is said and done. i've been on this show once or twice before. i don't think i have ever given this answer. i have no idea. my gut still tells me that the president's superior skills and electoral college advantage will allow him to win. but i wouldn't be at least surprised if governor romney broke 300 electoral votes because that wave of economic discontent. >> that su a landslide, by the way. >> i wouldn't be surprised-- . >> rose: if it is either tight or a landslide. >> i think a tight or decent obama win or romney landslide. >> rose: what could change it to make it that way. >> lo

and eight tossup states with 106 electoral college votes. the immediate aftermath of the democratic convention shows 14 state showed movement toward obama. six states showed movement toward romney. but nonetheless, the immediate aftermath of the democratic convention, democrat bounce. we saw it in these polls. >> bret: joe, the significance there? here in iowa, they are spending a lot t oftime, both come pains. joe biden here today, paul ryan here today. iowa is a tossup state. >> iowa is gaining importance, bret. one reason is that the math, the electoral map is starting to shrink. with michigan and pennsylvania, i think sort of both campaigns are pulling out a lot of the tv money to move it to other states. those states moving to obama column. the next state i think that is moving is north carolina. which is starting to lean to romney. even with that bounce that karl talked about. that makes me put that sort of in a lean romney situation. if you have most free states doing that, it is putting increase pressure and spending on state like io

my gut still tells me that the president's superior skills and electoral college advantage will allow him to win. but i wouldn't be at least surprised if governor romney broke 300 electoral votes because that wave of economic discontent. >> that su a landslide, by the way. >> i wouldn't be surprised-- . >> rose: if it is either tight or a landslide. >> i think a tight or decent obama win or romney landslide. >> rose: what could change it to make it that way. >> look, the president is not at 50% in most of these battleground states. and so what could change is that, that romney performs well enough in the debates that people say we don't like the economy. this guy seems good enough. and there's just a-- like with president reagan. i don't think that's going to to happen because the president is not jimmy carter in a thousand ways. but i think that is in play. >> rose: or john mccain or anybody else that had that issue. >> yeah. but so you are saying to me that if, in fact, the republican nominee in this election year, 2012 could present himself as a plausible alternative, that might be

. >> when you hear the words electoral college you think what? >> 1776.tdated. >> exhibit a for him the disputed election of 2000 won by george w. bush even though al gore won half a million more votes. >> you get another situation like that, bingo, we got it. >> what he got in his home state is a law that would require new jersey to award its electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote no matter who wins the state. seven other states have passed laws to do the same thing but the pact wouldn't take effect until the ranks doubles. the complaint, the candidates don't campaign in roughly 40 of our 50 states because they are not those all-important swing states visited over and over again. >> thank you so much, florida. >> hello, virginia. >> i need ohio to help me become the next president. >> we win colorado i'll get four more years. >> our founding fathers had it right. >> republican new jersey state representative says even though 62% of americans say they support replacing the electoral college with a national popular vote the current syst

what is true unless there's a disaster tonight, governor romney electoral college position sno better. >> charlie:no easy path for him. >> and he still has very few paths without having put florida away without having put in play pennsylvania, michigan having a tough time in ohio. there's just not a clear way for him to get 270 electoral votes. that having been said he's probably exwetting close to 250, if things go well and spend more money. that's a close race if the loser is starting around 250 but he's not there. that means obama poll standing kerntly is not as bad as a different incumbent in a different race. >> the one thing i would say to that the romney theory, which is the challenger in -- undecide vote, 5% of undecided voters rule in politics lived wft president for 3 1/2 years clesser to 4 years. if they're not for him by now all they're looking for is an acceptable alternative. the he only slight twist is you have such interesting dynamics with the two and has people think of them which is to say governor romney holds a pretty wide lead the question of economic management

but bush won the electoral college after a bitter legal battle. so, the fight for the white house comes down to a handful of states where the candidates are focusing the bulk of their time and resources. ohio getting the most attention. frequent campaign stops and tons of television ads. >> it's time for a new economic patriotism. >> too many americans are struggling to find work in today's economy. >> reporter: the obama campaign has spent more than $40 million on ads in ohio since may 1st. the romney campaign, more than $20 million. recent polling shows that in three, critical battleground states, president obama's in the lead. but the romney campaign says their internal polling in those states shows a much tighter race. >> they're going to have to plant the flag in ohio and fight like crazy. >> reporter: but romney's path to victory is shrinking. this week, abc news shifted ohio from the toss-up column to ohio. mitt romney would need to win nearly all of the remaining seven toss-up states to win the white house. and they all went for president

advantage in the electoral college because in the united states you know we don't. as we saw on t.v. thousand election we don't elect the president on the popular vote it can sometimes be different in the electoral college so we really don't have a national election we have a state by state election and so the. candidates have to win so many states which add up to two hundred seventy electoral votes and so that can sometimes differ from the national got the popular vote totals so this could be another election where that happens we'll see obama as a slight edge in the electoral map do you think he's able to move to appeal to the middle well not as much i guess somewhat it's hard to say where he stands on many issues he's kind of moved around enough that's believable but after you do that and now if people just you know stick you with the flip flopper type thing flipping back and forth between you know views like john kerry was labeled with that. a while back for the demo the democratic side you know if you're inconsistent on your and mitt romney has been inconsisten

as long as we are significant in the electoral college, and compatible -- competitive we will be the battleground. both candidates have to win ohio said they will go at it. and be here all lot. >> we are here at the creighton special collection room with the manuscript library from the ohio state university collections department and the research library. i am here to talk about the art collections and to give a sense what we have by violating a few examples of what i like. some more ran down. first, my white whale. probably with my very biased opinion with the most beautiful items. it is an example of early 13th century transitional bible. prior to that many did not look at all like we think of them today. larger volumes and pages. he would likely have the bible and the multi volume said. put the early century with cultural changes were happening. the horn be is a result of that. with the early 13th century you had the emergence of universities and the friars and with the rise the bible became the centrally the court textbook. something that is standard or why it is possible when we

what is true unless there's a disaster tonight, governor romney electoral college position sno better. >> charl:no ey pathor him. >> and he still has very few paths without having put florida away without having put in play pennsylvania, michigan having a tough time in ohio. there's just not a clear way for him to get 270 electoral votes. that having been said he's probably exwetting close to 250, if things go well and spend more money. that's a close race if the loser is starting around 250 but he's not there. that means obama poll standing kerntly is not as bad as a different incumbent in a different race. >> the one thing i would say to that the romney theory, which is the challenger in -- undecide vote, 5% of undecided voters rule in politics lived wft president for 3 1/2 years clesser to 4 years. if they're not for him by now all they're looking for is an acceptable alternative. the he only slight twist is you have such interesting dynamics with the two and has people think ofhem which is to say governor romney holds a pretty wide lead the question of economic management and that

a lot of electoral college votes which is important for the contest. more than a dozen states that are competitive, could be won by either side, and so you put together the big prize with the competitiveness, and it means the candidates are going to be here. governor romney had a bus tour a week or two ago. president obama had a bus tour just last week. they will be back in ohio. we will see more campaign ads in ohio than people in most states will see to the point that people will be sick and tired of seeing them. columbus, the market we're in right now, had the highest degree of political advertising two weeks ago than any place in the country. it was june. it's really going to be a place that both candidates court. and almost always have. well, particularly, after the civil war, it was a place that harbored sympathizers and northern sympathizers. there's a bunch of counties south of us here in columbus that were counties called the virginia military district. after the revolutionary war, officers in the revolutionary army who didn't get paid were gi

from the way you know all i was saying is that this one have a much greater effect with the electoral college i don't think these comments will have that great an effect on the ultimate election because the company that makes that go with it backed away from the susanna martinez she said you know scott brown that's not the way i view the world bill kristol arrogant and stupid i mean you i don't think i want only people on the right agree with electrons it's not say people all have their own reelections and if they're looking out for themselves and they believe that they need to decide to do it and then it breaks you know the thing is yeah well that's true but david david david brooks also isn't a conservative david brooks has been you know trying to dismiss the so-called conservative movement conservatives there's always been a number of these really don't create the seven percent of this kind of this is these are horrible statements forty seven in this country are not victims i don't think they view themselves as victims i say we're bad guys and they got it. it was a member there's speculati

there is a -- this is about not national goals but states and electoral colleges. if you just look at the real clear politics of electoral map here, evening you see in yellow states that we consider swing states. in order to win this presidency, mitt romney has three states that are semihe wins in all of them. florida, virginia, ohio. he has a tough road to get to the white house. you want to say something about the twick states? >> eric: i was going last but president obama has the same issue. >> bob: not at all. he has to carry six swing states and pick um ohio or florida. >> bob: he can't lose both. >> eric: right. what is the big deal? obama has to sweep two of the three. >> bob: i am conceding north carolina and indiana. >> greg: i coin a phrase, the curtain variable. you risk being called a racist, in public if you say you won't vote for president obama. so you don't know what a lot of people will do behind the curtain. >> bob: i didn't know that. >> andrea: can we bring the map up again and look at the states here? you mention probably won't win virginia. no

it comes down to the electoral college. each state signed a number of votes. the process became infamous in the 2000 race between bush and gore. gore won the popular vote, bush won the electoral college after a bitter legal battle. the fight for the white house comes down to a handful of states where candidates are focusing. ohio getting the most attention frequent campaign stops tons of ads. the obama campaign has spent more than 40 million dollars in ads in ohio. romney campaign more than 20 million in three critical battleground states president obama is in the lead. romney campaign says their internal polling in those states shows a tighter race. >> they have to plant a flag in ohio and fight like crazy many >> reporter: romney's path to victory is shrinking. the president is within 15 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win reelection. mitt romney would need to win nearly all of the remaining seven tossup states to win the white house. they all went for president obama in 2008. karen travers, abc news, washington. >>> prep work gets in full swing today

ohio is not growing as fast as other states, which means our electoral college weight is going to decline over time. we lost congressional seats most recent reapportionment of congressional seats. and that will probably continue to happen since there is direct growth elsewhere than it is in ohio. the sun belt states tend to be growing, although the recession has hurt them in terms of the growth. so as long as we're significant in the electoral college, and particularly as long as we're competitive we will be a battleground state. candidates will be coming here. they will be saying i have to win ohio, if i'm going to win the presidency. i think both of these candidates this year probably have to win ohio. and so they will go out it in ohio, spent a lot of money and be here. >> for more information on booktv's recent visit to columbus, ohio, and other cities on c-span's local content vehicles tour visit c-span.org/local content. >> i would like to thank brad for the very generous introduction. i think it's good that he mentioned that i'm a writer for the "washington post," do is make predic

i accept the finality of this outcome which will be ratified next monday in the electoral college.ht for the strength of our union and democracy i offer my concession. >> that was not a happy day. we are going to talk to jeff green field an anchor on pbs's need to know, a columnist nor yahoo news, won knife emmy awards not a big deal and his new book was 43, when gore beat bush a political fable. that is perfectly relevant to whether people should be motivated to vote. jeff, it's great to have you on. before we start the conversation, i should be clear with the conversation, this note work is co founded by al gore, although again to be perfectly clear, i'm sure he's nothing but uncomfortable with this segment. none the less, jeff, tell me in your estimatation how the country would have been different had al gore won the presidency. >> the first thing i need to explain is how we get there because this is a counter factual history. it's not hanging chads differentlied chads or anything else else. in my book, elian gonzalez's mother doesn't drown. while there are a lot of people who w