robert doll of nuveen, and ellen zentner of morgan stanley. and engage the debate, chris whalen just put out and twitter -- put out a twitter that he respectively disagrees with ms. zentner. why can we have one rate increase and frame it as not as sector, -- as not a vector, but we just want to get off the zero bounds?-- off the zero ellen: in december they really got lucky because there was a slingshot effect of job growth coming through after having been delayed over the summer because of the global meltdown, and it allowed the data -- the data allow them to get that rate hike in in december. we do not have that kind of momentum right now building for them to convince markets to raise rates again. tom: bring up the chart on the surveillance wall. the idea here is that where the rates have been, the blue box is the length of duration of low rates. it right now is absolutely unprecedented. chris whalen, this is completely artificial. so if they raise rates, what is the "so what" given the morgan stanley call on gdp? you arehe construct using f

ellen zentner joins us next.mberg. ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg ," i am alix steel. the two-day fed policy meeting today, the first since the brexit vote. if you think the fed will provide clarity on the timing of the next hike. , there isner joins us some indication that point to the market repricing rate hike sooner rather than later. inflatione a look at and jobs, the fed should be hiking right now. why do you disagree? ween: we disagree because like to look at financial conditions in the context of your underlying growth and inflation in the economy. we feel it's best reflected by the adjusted national financial conditions index, that the chicago fed puts out. if you look at that index, financial conditions are about right to support growth and inflation in the economy. getting that all towards the fed's goal. the important take away there is that for the fed to maintain the proper amount of support that would give it confidence it will hit its outlook, it's got to remain on the sidelines and keep those fin

economist, ellen zentner, is calling for the fed to remain on hold for the next 18 months. arkets could price in some additional action if ellen and her team are correct on what is happening with u.s. growth over the coming period. mike: many me give you an update on honeywell. we got the headline as part of their earnings report that they are splitting their automation and control solutions group. the company also reporting earnings per share for the second quarter of $1.66, better than the $1.64 they projected. they are raising the lower end of their forecast for the year, so a major change in the way they do business and an upgrade to their outlook. who is ouring, global chief strategist -- sorry, getting her title right r citi's private bank. stephen co you're seeing a -- those orders, looking back up a quarter past, the estimates have been two low -- have been too low review have been beating the lower estimates, deep into a mature cycle with earnings levels very high, and all of the corporate action you are seeing in essence is a cheaper way than building capacity to g

ellen zentner of morgan stanley -- never mind longer rates for lower, longer rates forever. on "bloomberg ." tom: let's bring in our single best chart. we show this earlier for george goncalves and harm bandholz as well. we call it the lollipop chart. the two-year yield, over the last 18 months, migrating. in the great rollover over the last year is in hindsight. janet yellen wants to get back to the green circle. you are not predicting that, are you? george: no. if we get one hike this year, we should be happy about that. the bond market is being driven by other forces. there is a lot of money coming into u.s. bonds, keeping yields lower than where they would be, regardless of what the fed does. francine: but it will impact what happens with treasuries. where do you find the best deals out there? george: in the five to 10-year part of the curve, a continues to be in the area where there is decent yield pickup, especially were foreign investors are looking for yield. that is where people are looking to place their money. for u.s. investors, they are looking for high qual