ellen zentner joins us this morning. let's get right to jp. goes to 1.7. urricane noise. ellen: it is the hurricane noise. we are about 2.2%, tracking for the third quarter. tend to, is that you depending where these things hit in the quarter, you get dampened activity in the quarter, but you start to get positive activity coming out. the important thing here, it was such an exciting week on the trading floor for the fomc excitement. tom: they let you on the trading floor on morgan stanley? ellen: not dangerously unsupervised, but they let me on. all of the fixed income trading floor. i have seen the fed after each of these major hurricanes. they do make a statement, usually in the first paragraph, where they say despite or notwithstanding hurricane effects, the economy continues to grow. they basically said "don't look at all the data, don't look at inflation data, all of this does not matter because it will be kicked around by hurricane effects," so essentially saying, "none of that matters, we are hiking rates in december." tom: do we have a regime chang

that:: -- ellen zentner: is of the key question. fed policymakers, the phillips curve is alive and kicking. it is only alive for very small segments of inflation where we have seen a very big response from the labor and to prices. are notall segments enough to overcome other broad segments of inflation that are in secular downtrend. latestined in our research the long-term effects that say amazon is the world have been having on price, airbnbs, those are not a transitory. we would argue that the fed will contain to miss on 2% inflation goal. tom: you have been very good on a dampened gdp. to pick 2 numbers. america or could we think about a 3.31% gdp run rate? ellen zentnerl i think -- ellen zentner: i think it is too soon to call that we could sustain 3%. we are above potential which is dominated by productivity and the demographics. we think potential at 1.5%. pickup in some sectors like investment that are going to be counteracted by slowdowns in others. the household sector, rolled disposable income has been slowing pretty drama