ellen zentner of morgan stanley joins us now. ame the agni -- agony, the behavioral economics of 1.6 million or more jobless claims. rranslate that into zentne economics. ellen: we have it around 3.4 million later this morning, and in the millions should not surprise anyone. it is just alarming. it is not just a known factor for those who lost their jobs last week. we are looking at who got laid off last week and it continued into this week but we do not have those numbers yet. it is alarming for anyone to hear that that many people have been losing their jobs. yes, we have gotten the legislation that helps shore up the hole in income that creates. they still have to wait weeks to get those funds, and for many, it might mean the difference between being able to put food on the table or not. it adds to the uncertainty behind this already uncertain time of how to deal with the virus. and ihat is so important, love what viviana hurtado said, they are calling it a rescue package, this is pitched as stimulus. what i am hearing from mor

economist ellen zentner has more sobering news.ey believe that economic output in the second quarter is going to drop by 30% from a year ago. what is the backdrop for that, and how did you come to that number? >> yeah, so, those are really grim numbers, but it's the reality that, you know, this is unlike any other economic downturn that we've gone into. companies are leading us to believe that anywhere from 75 to 90% of economic activity has been cut in important areas. you have a car dealership in new jersey saying, we used to sell 45 cars a day. now we're selling one car a day. >> reporter: facing an unprecedented crisis, the government is taking unprecedented measures. there is the enormous $2 trillion federal lifeline to businesses and families, and the federal reserve is feverishly rolling out plans to keep money flowing throughout the financial system. it might feel like a nightmare repeat of the recession that began in 2008, but this time is actually different. it's a very sharp drop into recession, but we don't expect this

. >> reporter: and ellen zentner, a u.s. economist, has more sobering news. at morgan stanley believed that economic output in the second quarter is going to drop by 30% from a year ago. what is the backdrop for that, and how did you come to that number? >> yes. so those are really grim numbers. but it is the reality that, you know, this is unlike any other economic downturn that we've gone into. companies are leading us to believe that anywhere from 75% to 90% of economic activity has been cut in important areas. you have a car dealership in new jersey saying we used to sell 45 cars a day. now we're selling one car a day. >> facing an unprecedented crisis, the government is taking unprecedented measures. there is the enormslifelinesinan verishly rolling plans to keep money flowing throughout the financial system. it might feel like a nightmare repeat of thecessat bn 2008, t this time is actually different. >> it is a very sharp drop into recession. but we don't expect this recession to be as long-lived as prior recessions because this is dictated by the evol

we drive forward the conversation with that important jobless claims number with ellen zentner of morgannley. she and her team have been quite cautious of the linkage of gdp growth into the labor economy. please stay with us. this is blue. -- this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the longer the virus stays, the more expensive it will be. >> the longer we stay outcome, the harder it is. >> we have all the firepower we need and will use it. >> that will create 4 trillion dollars if needed to support american business and workers. >> provide $2000 a month for the next four months for workers who lose their income. >> instruments will be made available if needed. >> everyone gets a back seat and all hands are on deck in dealing with covid-19. >> our main concern now is how -- but theencies survival of our people. tom: some of the voices we have seen across the bloomberg world the last couple of days. london, i amua in tom keene in new york, and with us is david folkerts-landau, head of research and economist with deutsche bank. i have got my support for the italian economy, which is the advantage of being

joining me now is ellen zentner, chief u.s. economist at morgan stanley. ellen, welcome what is that predicated in terms of stimulus from washington and the federal reserve? >> yeah. so i think we take a look at these eye-popping numbers that we put out in our new u.s. forecast with second quarter as the largest single quarter contraction on record. you can start to see -- understand why there's such a fire in the belly of policymakers to try to get stimulus passed as quickly as possible the fed with a slew of alphabet soup programs that have gone even further and congress, while it feels like they act slowly, they have been acting much more quickly than congress typically acts especially when you're putting together such a huge stimulus package. we don't know what the final number is, is it $2 trillion, $2.5 trillion? we estimate nearly a $1 trillion hole in the economy from the lost output we'll get this year. so that goes far in addressing that >> so we are going to talk later in the show about some of the businesses and parts of the economy that are sti