tom: ellen zentner joins us now, of morgan stanley. how has your x axis changed? debate at "surveillance" is the idea of a boom economy back somewhere to normal. tell us your 2021, 2022, 2023 in the labor market. ellen: it will be a slow way back for support. we saw a drop that we have never seen in history. i think 1% was the historical biggest number, and then it can take years to climb back to pre-downturn levels. so it is just going to be a slow slog. we are going to get some bumps here and there. one of the upside bumps we are expecting is around september, august-september as schools are reopening and people can go back to work. so you will get some positive bumps there. i think it is going to take quite some time for normalization and labor force participation rates. that of course is going to dampen how much economic growth you are going to get. we do have a lot of stimulus in the system and we still got more legislation to go. so the economy is slowing sharply next year, but still growing above its potential. as you said, look out to 2023 and beyond. it w

forecast of the first tapering announcement to december, about four months from now let's bring in ellen zentner, morgan stanley chief economist and managing director. ellen joins us on the phone. welcome, ellen, we're glad to have you here. your move to advance the announcement of when the fed will start to slow its purchases of bonds and mortgage-backed securities and other securities is driven by what? >> so i think it's driven by the labor market you know, they're pretty much they have arrived on their inflation goal, even if you strip out transitory, which i wish i had a dollar for every time i've heard that word this year but even stripping that out, inflation is not the worry, it's the labor market that's where they're focused and we've started to see the pickup in labor supply we're in line with chair powell's thinking that september and october is sort of critical there where unemployment benefits are running out, teachers are back at schools that are fully reopened and people can go back to work more fully. and so you've got a bump in labor supply that's coming that's going to keep the

it was interesting that ellen zentner really focused on the blot aspect of this employment report, and particular the wage friend. want to bring you this in the dow jones newswire, walmart is extending bonuses to keep its hourly workers. how much will this affect hourly wages going up in this report? tom: also, the united airlines headline. so much going on right now. what is so important about this hour on radio and television nationwide is it is about the markets. the bond market, yes, the american economy, and the stock market, how they react. jonathan: the s&p 500 coming into friday, at record highs. we advanced by 0.03 percent. we have walk you through the bond market, 1.2499% on tens. euro-dollar negative, the euro weaker, dollars stronger. crude had a look at $70 earlier. here are the numbers you need to look for in about 27 minutes' time. 802,000 is the median estimate. the range is wide. 1.2 million at the high-end, 356,000 at the low end. tom: here's the number i care about, and it goes to "the real yield" this afternoon on television. 1.10 on the three year yield. that is an