katie: we did hear from morgan stanley's ellen zentner, she expects the fed to slam on the brakes.he wrote "we think incoming data and forecast decisions will lead the fed to pause at its next meeting. march feels a long way away at this point. talk about it, do we think the dot plot is going to change in march and in what direction? krishna: looking for a pause might be to -- a pause in march might be too brave. i think pausing sometime in the first half of this year is quite likely and they will probably pause and keep rates at those levels for a long period of time. the real economic data is not soft enough for them to pause this early, relative to what they have already told us. i think the fcp may get revised down a little bit, but not meaningfully so based on the things they have said and the data we are seeing today, especially the partial rear accelerations in certain parts of the economy. katie: you guys brought it up here it honestly, it has all i have been thing about. financial conditions, what they mean, what they are pricing in. powell spoke about financial conditions

can you imagine the conversation of mike wilson and ellen zentner at morgan stanley?ever she is below the hollanhorse line. mike wilson has to re-justify a cautious stance. that must've been a hell of a conversation. jonathan: one, don't fight the fed was the message. his words. two, his call is about earnings and they have not been great. the question i have asked and i spoke to mike about this, you can learn something from the incoming information about the way the market responds to the incoming information. he took note of that but ultimately he thinks in the next couple of quarters you will get a drip feeling from this of bad earnings, better earnings and we will bump into week data -- weak data. basically saying the same thing. you will hit in your pocket of weak data in the next couple of quarters. that is why the bears, this is incredibly painful. you are trying to short it, that's incredibly expensive. this hurts. the call still stands for them. the weak data is coming. lisa: the short squeeze and the maximum pain of january, you put that together, is this th

tom: ellen zentner alluded to this. her call is pretty tepid.ich is price out, yelled down, with the disinflation that is nasdaq 100 to the moon, is the idea nominal gdp comes in because the growth is not there and the inflation component comes down as well? jonathan: do you want the perfect quote? a window of opportunity when long-term interest rates typically fall prior to the magnitude of the slowdown being reflected in earnings estimates, this is the classic late-cycle period between the fed's last hike and the recession. do you want to know who that belongs to and where it is from? mike wilson, november. that reads almost exactly precisely a description of where we are right now. like, right now. i remember when mike put that out. you are aware he is bearish right now. when mike put it down it was leaning into the bear market rally of the moment. what we were asking is, how big is the window? there was a feeling that maybe in went to your-and. it is still open right now. the work from november, i think, is appropriate to the moment we are i