joining us now is ellen zentner chief u.s. economist at morgan stanley and andreas jobst head of macroeconomics at allianz. where they differ is the forecast in cuts. andreas: critically important is the fed is currently very much driven by data. setting policy rates and guiding forward. data that is coming in is the best coincidental, or, also, when you look at the employment data, it comes with lag. so, we believe that there is a recession in the making. we see indications not only in terms of monetary, but also, the labor market is showing signs of significant weakness. when it comes to the starting of the pivot, q3, q4, a contraction of about one percentage point, that is largely driven by savings that have been completely spent and consumers really cutting back on expenditure. this means the u.s. will then head for a negative quarter in q3 and q4. >> let's bring it back to the pause call that a good chunk of wall street is estimating. ellen, if we get apostate a on the concern of the banking system, will that pave the way

not only because we are on lake como and it is not raining, but because we have ellen zentner, the u.sf economist from morgan stanley, to kick us off. thank you for joining us. >> it is a great morning. >> we are talking about a possible credit crunch. this is the real concern out there that the bank in crisis will lead to less lending and something ugly happening. >> think less lending is exactly what we are in store for. credit conditions were already deteriorating in the fourth quarter of last year. we so growth in commercial industrial loans really start to fall off. this is that extra push that now the loan growth is going to be slowing even more in the u.s. and it has taken the growth forecast down. if it is going to be slower flow of credit, growth is going to be hit. >> at the same time, the fed may be relieved. >> i don't know if i will say relieved because right now they are trying to plug possibly a sinking boat with macro prudential tools, but it does do some of your job for you. because that is slowing the economy, that is what the fed has been trying to do. slower loan gr

ellen zentner of morgan stanley, thank you. more night. 250 is a problem. you do not want to miss the conversation coming up shortly. a rock star of the analyst community on financials, next. lisa m: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. with the first word, i am lisa mateo. after a big gain of 517 thousand jobs in january, all eyes on today's employment report. another round of hefty payroll numbers could submit the federal reserve's resolve to hold interest rates higher for longer. economists predict 225,000 jobs were added last month but there are signs fed hikes are taking hold. jobless claims rising to the highest since december. donald trump is likely to face criminal charges in new york. the former president was told he could appear before a grand jury next week. if you want to testify. that is said to be a sign an indictment could soon follow. the case has to do with the former president's role in playing -- paying hush money to a former point star. volodymyr zelenskyy is accusing russia of deliberatel