his colleague, ellen zentner at 7:30.is jobs day. ♪ ♪ explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. >> the problem with china is the growth problem and the debt problem. the growth problem needs a revamp growth model, not just tinkering with what you have, but fundamentally changing what you have and the debt issues need fundamental restructuring, otherwise pockets of indebtedness will be -- tom: george clooney from the shores of lake como. it is the gray hair that pulled me. mohamed el-erian there. it is really spectacular. an important meeting where people think about the state of europe among everything, and certainly a lot to think about their. jonathan ferro helping us with the ecb and what we see september 14. front and center right now is china. on this jobs date, we digress of bit and talk to someone with real beijing cred. you go to hong kong and hang out at the mandarin and you think you are an expert. i'm

. >>> straight ahead on "worldwide exchange," the one thing morgan stanley's ellen zentner is tellingclients now. >>> if you haven't already, follow our podcast check us out on apple or spotify or other podcast apps. "worldwide exchange" is back after this ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. >>> it is 5:30 a.m. here in the new york city area more ahead here on "worldwide exchange." here is what's on deck, the federal reserve set to kickoff the policy meeting with the set of tricks jay powell and company may have up their sleeves this year. >>> and the ipo rush rolls on with instacart with the public offering at the top of the pricing range. >>> and a.r.m. holdings losing the shine as the post-pull back continues. it is tuesday, september 19th, 2023 you are watch wiing "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's start the half hour check on the u.s. sto

part of our reticence about the market and ellen zentner talked about is we are entering the fog of so many unknowns. expectations are for corporate profits to essentially v-shape and recover in the third quarter ending with year-over-year growth into next year of 10%, 12%. that is the problem as far as we are concerned. it is not so much that the consumer may cool but that expectations are the consumer is not only going to remain resilient, but re-accelerate spending, exiting christmas into the new year. guy: what does that mean for margins? which is that mean for costs? lisa: we have long been of the opinion that analysts always misunderstand the secondary and tertiary margin implications of higher oil prices. they seep into everything in terms of transportation, logistics, and supply chain costs. as we have been, and perhaps excessively so, you know, conservative and concerned about margin achievability. a lot of analysts seem to be forecasting margins are going to expand and that is something we would question. we think these headwinds are material. alix: lisa, does that mean cycli

whether they lead into this idea that they are done, because it seems like that in the literature, ellen zentner saying they are done. earnings, this is a big deal off mike wilson's comments. retail earnings in particular. tuesday cosco. wednesday h&m and micron. thursday is nike. curious to see whether these are bespoke stories or whether we get a theme. on the economic data front you talk about home prices and the mortgage rates. home price data as well as new-home sales. we get that tomorrow. jobless claims thursday. personal income and core pce on friday. the consumer. how much did they continue to surprise to the upside? tom: is not a sleepy week into october. on the des screen, a plethora of data. jp morgan october 13. they also have december, when the bruins pull ahead. joining us is luke kawa. what did you write about this weekend? what is the distinction you see in the cacophony of news we have? luke: this weekend is a lot more reading than writing. very interesting for us to watch and year end. a couple of things that seem like big highlights. a lot of the -- there is the quintet. thro

economists of the week, ellen zentner at morgan stanley nailed the gdp revision which goes to the uncertaintyrning about great, what is real gdp going to be, as nominal gdp going to be, and what does this mean for the markets? jonathan: the problem is this is a recession that never was. lisa a: how can we get inflation back to target? that really is the focus of the markets as you mentioned ryan morning hands,'s -- brian monahan's comments earlier this week. we are hearing from companies trying to start changing their growth and pricing power so what point do we get the disinflation if we do not get there? if -- tom: if you take three month annualized, there is a vector that screams disinflation. to your point, the win is a victory. jonathan: to be have a slowdown in the labor market with claim still around 200 k and unemployment? tom: we all read different things, how many people will come out and reaffirm recession this weekend? i am guessing not that many. jonathan: that is what they have been doing, pushing it out to next year, q1, q2. you have government shutdown deadline looming over th

lisa: and ellen zentner thinks the next move for the federal reserve will be a cut in march 20 24. if we start talking about potential for rapid deceleration, that means the lag effects have not taken effect and you will see them. tom: we will have to revisit that at the fed show tomorrow but there is a set of additio -- disinflanistas. lisa: i'm trying to be nice. jonathan: coming up on the oecd forecast, the chief economist on their interim economic outlook. good morning. ♪ ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. >> it's also in many areas a win-win relationship in the sense that our trade and investment flows produce gains for china and gains for the united states. much of it is uncontroversial, should thrive, and it would really be disastrous to try to decouple from china. jonathan: it's not decoupling, it's not de-risking anymore, it is diversifying. the treasury secretary speaking at a fireside chat at

zentner's nominal gdp. karen doesn't have a clue. model out nominal gdp and how it affects your line? mike: this is where ellen and i are aligned. and an earnings recession. pricing has not been as good as the pricing and inflation numbers in government statistics. ellen is far from excited about economic growth, but she is looking for 1% real gdp growth. 3% to 4% nominal gdp growth, does that lead to 5% real growth ? maybe what companies are seeing in pricing is very different than what the economic statistics will tell you. very similar to 2021 when core cpi were great. you actually have -- tom: mike wilson with us here. futures are -15. lisa: i'm curious as we parse through all of these muddled signals, what is the one thing you think people are getting wrong? mike: pricing. from a stock standpoint, this is where we are most out of consensus. this is the boom bust. what you see in the amplitude of pricing is much greater in the real economy than it is in government statistics. there is this illusion that companies can continue to price on these higher costs. the markets are finding out that most companies don't have pricing p