elmendorf. let me get into the debt itself. we had the state of the union address last night and as we all doe do, we go@microphones and give our play-by-play analysis of what we thought of the speech and what we liked and didn't like. one thing that stood out that gave me cause for concern, i heard it in mr. van hollen's opening statement, it seems they think the heavy lifting on debt reduction is behind us and we've just got alyle bit left an we're done. the notion that we've already got $2.5 trillion in deficit reduction taken care of, we're not much farther to go to finish the job this calculation, this $2.5 trillion of debt reduction, does not count the spending that took place during that time. it doesn't count the stimulus spending, $831 billion. it doesn't account for the first payroll tax holiday, $111 billion. it doesn't account for the second payroll tax holiday, $89 billion. it doesn't count for multiple unemployment extensions or the 24% increase in nondefense discretionary spending

elmendorf. let me get into the debt itself. we have the state of the union address last night and as we all do we go to the microphones and give our play-by-play analysis of what we thought of the speech and what we liked him what we didn't like. one thing stood out that gave me a real cause for concern and i heard it in mr. van hollen's opening statement which gives me very big con -- cause for concern. the notion that we have our degout $2.5 trillion of deficit reduction taking taken care of and in the bank with not much farther to go to finish the job, this calculation, this $2.5 trillion in debt reduction does not count the spending that took place during that time. it doesn't count the stimulus spending of $831 billion doesn't account for publicly held debt has doubled from 36% of gdp to 73% in 2012. 77% by 20203. i guess you know alternative alternate fiscal scenario meaning doc fix and all the other things you think congress will do based on reasonable assumptions. total debt is already a

elmendorf.th respect to the timing of the budget submission, i think all of us know that we struggled and toast january 2 to pass legislation to avoid the fiscal cliff. the results of that legislation was to make sure we did not see a sharp increase in taxes on middle income americans. we ask higher income individuals to begin to contribute to reducing the debt over the long term. that action help strengthened the economy. it took us until january 2 to do it and we do not know how much revenue will be coming in this year or the next 10 years. it is understandable that the president needs a little bit more time on the budget. as the budget committee, our challenge is to try to come up with a blueprint for our country's decisions on spending and taxes. while we talk about numbers, ultimately it should be a reflection of where the american people are in terms of their values and their priorities. i hope we share this you, as we approach the budget our number one priority has to be expanding economi

douglas elmendorf. the members of this committee know dr. elmendorf well.s appeared before us on numerous occasions. i want to thank you and your staff on behalf of this committee for all the hard work and professionalism you give to us and congress. it is fair to say that the report you delivered to us on the state of the budget and the economy over the next 10 years is a mixed bag. as it contains some hopeful signs but also highlights some real challenges for our nation. in terms of the economy on the one hand we're starting to see the affects of the housing and financial crisis fade. following the work we did in congress to support the recovery. we are clearly not out of the woods, and far too many workers are struggling to get back on the job. but housing prices and the stock market are rising and that is certainly some welcome news. on the other hand, your report makes clear the economy still faces significant head winds in the short term, particularly from the tightening of federal fiscal policy. the sequester that's set to occur on march 1 is not the

elmendorf, for being here today. this report does certainly bring a lot of concerns about where we are going and the huge challenges that we will expect going down the road. as i was reading through here, i made notes where i see a lot of things are unsustainable. social security is unsustainable. without reform, it will go bankrupt in 2033. medicare is unsustainable. social security disability insurance -- which we do not talk very much about, and i think that is really a very important topic that i would love to see either this committee or some other committee take a look at because i got concerned about this last year when i started reading about how it will go bankrupt in 2016. a big concern. then on the education site -- pell grants. $1 million shortfall in fiscal year 2015. then annual shortfalls of $5 billion or more from fiscal year 2016 through 2023. all of these programs as we are looking at them -- it is very scary to see that they will go bankrupt unless we have some form of reform. let me now turn to lo

elmendorf for being here. you did give positive news, we are in a recovery with positive signs of economic growth and you have heard already that it is difficult to reduce the deficit and a fair and balanced way. have seen economic growth to see a contraction for the first time so the debates have any effect and it is not just politics but serious how we grow the economy, strengthen the middle-class in the global marketplace and how we meet our obligations to our seniors. we have positive news this week that the private sector institute pointed out we have seen slower growth in the cost of health care private and public sector that is significant with double digit growth and cost , 100 percent increase in the private sector and medicare and medicaid we would see these delivery systems to push the health care system with doctors and hospitals to give us better value and improve quality for seniors and in a cost-efficient way. so in particular the demographic problems of 10,000 seniors per day but could you spea

doug elmendorf, director of cbo said, no, we are not certain.r forecast and models are showinging us. when you look at forecast from 10 years ago, boy, it is tough to do this thing. liz: david is right and thank you very much, rich edson. >> the president meeting with labor and business leaders on capitol hill to discuss his immigration plan which we had already have spoken. this includes a pathway for citizenship for illegal immigrants already in the country. liz: one of the business leaders at meeting greg brown, chairman and ceo of motorola solutions joins us now. greg, what happened inside the meeting? and without giving away anything that is supposed to be proprietary? what is the president's vision of immigration and are you alongside it? >> not only am i alongside it? i think the business community is alongside it. one those rare instances in a town like this people from both sides of the aisle can get around and issue. the last immigration reform that was done in this country was over 25 years ago. the president spent almost an hour with

elmendorf. your budget nationalities is very interesting. for years, we had to listen to the republicans lighting their hair on fire on cable tv about the temporary large deficits we have. we were told that simpson-bowles not enacted would be the end of the world. two years later, notice on that chart, the jobs are going up. we have had 35 months of people increasing and the only places you see dips if you check them out are when the republicans began to play games with the budget and created chaos whether we were going to pay our bills internationally or these big fights we have on the floor, the unemployment goes up because business doesn't have any confidence and not going to hire anybody and it seems to me that what you said is that the long- term problems in this country really are about health care costs, as ms. schwartz pointed out. when i came to congress in 1988, we were talking about the big problem that was going to come in 2011. well, it's here. the baby boomers are now enrolling in

elmendorf. and we are going to have a series of votes called. we'll work our way through five minutes each and hope people can come back and forth from votes so people who have questions can ask. dr. elmendorf. >> thank you. to all the members of the committee, i appreciate the opportunity to be with you today and discuss c.b.o.'s outlook for the budget and economy over the next 10 years. our analysis shows that the country continues to face very large economic and budget and hn come back and forth from votes so people who have questions dit and i'll turn to the budget. we anticipate that economic growth will remain slow this year, because the gradual improvement that we see in underlying factors will be offset by a tightening of fiscal policy scheduled under current law. the good news is the effects of the housing and financial crisis appear to be fading. we expect that an upswing in housing construction, rising real estate and stock prices an year, because the gradual improvement that we see w

while we wait, we will hear testimony from cbo director douglas elmendorf as he appeared before the budget committee recently to talk about nation's financial outlook. >> our analysis show that is the country continues to face very large economic and budget challenges. let me discuss the economy first, and then i'll turn to the budget. we anticipate that economic growth will remain slow this year because the gradual improvement that we've seen underlying economic factors will be offset by a tightening of federal fiscal policy scheduleed under current law. the good news is the effects of the housing and financial crisis appear to be finally, gradually, fading. we expect that an upswing in housing construction, rising real estate and stock prices and increasing availability of credit will help to spur a virtuous to cycle of faster growth in employment, income, consumer spending and business investment during the next few years. however, several policies that will help to bring down the budget deficit will represent a drag on economic activity this year. the expiration of the two percentage p

. >> ahead of the congressional budget office, douglas elmendorf testified before the house committee today. here's a few methodist testimony and effects of the automatic spending cuts scheduled to take effect march 1st. >> could you tell me, dr. elmendorf, in terms of the negative economic impacts of sequester, .6%, what does that translate into in terms of lost jobs? >> so our estimate is that the sequester alone will reduce gdp growth this year by 0.6 percentage points, lowering the level of gdp at the end of the year. we think that would reduce the level of employment at the end of the year by 750,000 jobs. >> 750,000 jobs now and in this calendar year 2013, right-click >> yes, congressman. >> that's that's a whole lot of jobs obviously we should be working overtime to prevent that kind of job loss. if you were to replace the deficit reduction through that austerity program, because the sequester what the plan that accomplish the same deficit reduction spread over the ten-year period, you would not have that had jobs, if i right-click >> that's right, congressman. >> we've heard a

douglas elmendorf gave that estimate earlier today.d the 2013 will see slow economic growth and that any improvements will be offset by cuts to federal spending that congress will be forced to enact. this hearing runs about two hours, 15 minutes. . . >> good morning everyone and welcome the first part of our meeting is to organize the committee, that's why we don't have dr. elmendorf at his chair and here to adopt the committee rules and oversight plan. before introducing our new

elmendorf reaffirmed, we never received a proposal from the white house. we can't score a speech.resident has no proposal he laid out there and time is running out. we had eight teen months. we're down basically the last two weeks of business. bill: so if that is the case you're looking at ten days on the calendar. >> yeah. bill: what happens on the 1st of march? what are the anticipated effects of these cuts do you believe? >> well there's 42 1/2 billion in cuts in the defense budget and there is $42.5 billion in discretionary spending the big one, the program problemtic is the defense budget because the defense budget is into into a number of accounts. without congressional approval you can't move money from one account to another account. you have a ship building account. the spend out is next five years and maintenance and operations which is it your current activity you can't move from the long spending account to the short spending account would you explicit congressional authority. this causes enormous ramifications. the lack of flexibility on the domestic side has similar

i thought there was an interesting exchange the other day between cbo director douglas elmendorf and senator roger wicker of mississippi in which send wicker said what are you going to price out? what is the price tag going to be on the president's proposal to avoid the sequestration in and elmendorf said we don't have a proposal from the president. wicker said i guess you can't figure out what a speech is going to cost, you have to have a proposal and the administration has yet to provide a proposal. this is a bad idea, but it was the president's bad idea. absent this bad idea, however, the question is are we going to make any progress on beginning to restore our fiscal balance? the president last night said, oh, we've already cut $2.5 billion out of future deficit -- excuse me $2.5 trillion out of future deficits puts us more than halfway to our goal ever $4 trillion in cuts. i've been talking today to budget experts on the hill and they say the real number is closer to 500 billion, lens one fifth of what the president said last night in his speech, that the real budget cuts, the r

then there's douglas elmendorf. the director of the congressional budget office who was called into the white house shortly after the questioning the administering's so-called savings from its proposed healthcare law. after a little chat with the president in the oval office, different numbers, more friendly to the president's healthcare heck law coming from the budget office. >> and then complaining about the auto bailouts when they weren't buying the white house line? guess who the white house moved to the back of the line. yep. and weeks after the nation the president threatened warms who refused stimulus money, he would call them out, and how he publicly berated the supreme court during his 2010 state of the "state of the union" address over a ruling he didn't like, or threatened the court yet again, suggesting it's littity malls si would rearrived it voted against the health care law. follow the crumb. it gets crumbier, but i have a lot of crumbs but why risk being called a racist. my problem isn't with the col

elmendorf is being very clear with us that we have to work together and replace the sequester. doesn't mean we are going to shirk our responsibility to address the long-term debt, the medium-term debt but if we are going to be stuck with this 7 1/2% unemployment rate, that is not sustainable. are there other policies that could help us that are within the control of the congress to create more jobs? categories. there are a number of changes in fiscal policy. higher spending or lower taxes than are under current law and as you know, few reports in the past few years of trying to evaluate the bang for the buck of different sorts of changes in tax and spending policy. turning off the sequester would be one item. >> did you also mention immigration in your outlook? the outlook. we have done other work. i think immigration can be -- more immigration can be a positive force for the economy in the medium term and long- term depending on what the reforms are that consider might consider. those are reforms that wouldn't take effect that would provide a big boost in the economy this year

first the cbo director douglas elmendorf testimony. he warned of the sequester could cost 750,000 jobs. >> could you tell me in terms of the negative economic impact of the sequester, the .6%, what does that translate in point of lost jobs? >> our estimate is that the sequester alone would reduce gdp growth this year by zero point six percentage points. it would lower that gdp at the end of the year. we think that would reduce by about 750,000 jobs. >> 750,000 jobs between now and the end of 2013, right? >> right. >> that is a whole lot of jobs. we should be working overtime to prevent that kind of job loss. if you were to replace the deficit reduction through that austerity program, the cuts to the sequester with a plan that accomplishes the same amount of deficit reduction spread over the 10 year period, you would not have that hit on jobs? >> right. >> our analysis, the republican leader, mr. cantor had it right last september when he said that if we allowed the sequester to take place, unemployment would soar. it would set back pro

elmendorf's comments pertain largely to the military.that would take place with some of the civilian employees, here is what is happening. >> it's not just the military, it's food and safety inspectors. you've made this all about the military and i dig that, you represent a part of tennessee where that's very popular. >> no, no, no. see, there are so many places, a great example, if you want to talk about discretionary spending, non-defense discretionary, take for example the gao report, we have 342 different economic development programs in the federal government. you know what? all of those have a thiefdom and craig, there is so much bloat in the federal government. of course you can cut those down, of course we need to be reducing what the federal government spends. of course our constituents are wanting us to make reductions in that discretionary spending. they want us to protect military spending. they want us to stabilize medicare and social security so that the benefits that you have been paying for, you're going to be able to get

director doug elmendorf spoke about economic growth, unemployment, and planned spending cuts. here's a few minutes of that. >> we anticipate that economic growth will remain slow this year because the gradual improvement we see will be offset by a tightening of fiscal policy under current law. the good news is the effects of the housing and financial crisis appear to be waning wetch expect an upswing in housing construction, rising real estate and stock prices and inveesing availability of credit will help to spur a vir schal cycle of faster growth and employment, income, consumer spending and business investment over the next few years. however, several policies that will help to bring down the budget deficit will represent a drag on economic activity this year. the expiration of the two percentage point cuts in the social security payroll tax, the increase in tax rates on income above certain thresholds and the cuts in federal spending scheduled to take effect next month will mean reduced spend big both consumers and the government. we project that inflation-adjusted g.d.p.

including remarks by c brksz o director dog elmendorf who presented a budget in economic outlook. here's a little of what he had to say. >> we anticipate that economic growth being slow this year because the gradual improvement that we see in underlying economic factors will be offset be a tightening of federal fiscal policy scheduled under current law. the good news, that the effect of the housing and financial crisis appear to be gradually waning. we expect an -- housing construction, rising real estate and stock prices, and increasing availability of credit will help to spur a virtuous cycle of faster growth and employment, income, consumer spending, and business investment over the next few years. however, several policy will help to bring down the budget deficit will represent a drag on economic activity this year. the expiration of the 2 percentage points in the social security payroll tax, the increase in tax rates on income above certain thresh hold, and the cut in federal spending scheduled to take effect next month. will mean reduced spending by both consumers and the go

cbo director doug elmendorf says the u.s. faces, quote, very large budget and economic challenges.e cbo says that the gdp will be 1 1/2% higher if not for tax hikes apspending cuts. and the cbo expects the fed to raise the fed funds rate and sell assets in 2016. so here we are in 2013. so, aways to go yet. according to the cbo. tracy: okay. we file that in the captain obvious folder? ashley: i think so. tracy: is your wallet running on empty? gas prices jumping 23 cents last month. ashley: yikes! think could go higher as oil heads back to '97 a barrel. we're going to the pits of the cme and we'll take a look at some winners and losers. the dow is up 123 points. we'll be right back. ♪ ashley: it is half past the hour. take a look at the dow 30. united technologies and ibm in the read. let's head to the floor of the new york stock exchange. nicole petallides standing by. just off of session highs. nicole: we have had of arrows. you mentioned bank of america. we have seen the financials leading the way. where do you think we go from here? a lot of people think overbought >> i think it

[applause] [inaudible conversations] >> today congressional budget office director douglas elmendorf releases the agency's 2013 budget and economic outlook. we'll be live starting at 2 p.m. eastern here on c-span2. and also at 2 p.m. eastern, a bipartisan group of house members unveil gun trafficking legislation. you can see it live on our companion network, c-span3. >> ya loved her time -- julia loved her time in the white house. she said in her memoirs it was like a bright and beautiful dream, quite the most wonderful time of my life. so i think that gives you some idea how much she enjoyed being first lady and how she felt that her husband had finally achieved the recognition that she deserved. >> edith mayo on julia grant who married her brother's west point roommate, you'll cease s. grant. first ladies: influence and image, their public and private lives, interests and the their influence on the president produced with the white house historical association. season one begins presidents' day, february 18th, at 9 p.m. eastern on c-span, c-span radio and c-span.org. >> domestic wo

today before the senate budget committee, the director of the congressional budget office, doug elmendorf, will appear to answer questions about the cbo oppose the budget and economic outlook which was released last week. if you can find more on that on our website, c-span.org. other comments from twitter -- greg in north carolina, independent. caller: yes, ma'am. the way the president speaks, it does matter. i hope that the addresses a few things that he got started, the health care debate, and social security especially because a lot of the things people don't realize is things like social security, health care, unemployment, that does more does more for people than the people who receive it. it guess of four churches, communities, children. i hope the talks about this kind of stuff. they're not talking about cutting things like the division of motor vehicles, the national state registry, homeland security, the patriot act. i think america is big enough to handle this stuff without those institutions. the national state registry especially. things like chris kyle, the sniper, he has don

doug elmendorf, the congressional budget office director, spoke to reporters about the latest cbo projections. >> thank you all for coming. i am the director of the congressional budget office. cbo just released its outlook for the federal budget and the economy over the next decade. i would like to tell you a little about it, and then my colleagues and i will be happy to take your questions. our analysis shows that the united states continues to face very large economic and budget challenges. under current law, we expect the unemployment rate will remain above 7.5% through next year. that would make 2014 the sixth year in a row that unemployment is so high, the longest such period in seven years. also under current law, we expect budget deficits over the next decade to total about $7 trillion. with deficits so high, the federal debt on the public will remain a larger percentage of gdp than in any year between 1951 to 2012. by the end of the decade, debt would be 77% of gdp, on an upward path. let me elaborate on those points, beginning with the economy and then turning to the budget. we anti

at 2:00 eastern, congressional budget officer douglas amador will present projections -- elmendorf will present projections. also, a gun trafficking legislation news conference on c-span3 at 2:00 eastern. >> julia left her time in the white house. she sat in her memoirs and was like a bright and beautiful dream, the most wonderful time of my life. i think that gives you some idea of how much she enjoyed being first lady and how much she felt that her husband had finally achieved the recognition he deserved. >> julia grant, who married u.s. grant. "first ladies," their public and private lives, there and listen -- their influence. beginning february 18 at 9:00 p.m. eastern on c-span, c-span radio, and c-span.org. >> afternoon, the president will ask congress to come up with tens of billions of dollars in short-term spending cuts and tax revenue papaw off the automatic across-the-board cuts scheduled to kick in in march. budget and the date from this morning's "washington journal." host: we are back with congressman mcdermott, the ranking democrat on the house subcommittee. let me read to