first on rates, elvira nabiullina last year nearly tripled rates. started the year at 5%. rates went up to 17%. the issue was in january, she cut it to 15%, surprising everyone. that's what prompted the conversation about whether she's really independent. as you heard, her argument is it is not about where inflation is now. it is about where inflation is going. it is going to pick up in the first half of the year. she conceded that. but in the second half of the year, she says it is going to fall. all the while, she invokes paul volcker at one point as one of the central bank as she likes she paints herself as one who is thinking about inflation and fighting inflation, and someone who will not allow russia to inflate itself out of the crisis. >> in the context of other central banks cutting rates, it wasn't that much of a shock. >> yeah. >> it is a big week in the ukraine conflict. diplomacy is escalating. russia france germany on wednesday, merkel heads to washington. is there a growing position between the u.s. and germany? >> we don't know. john kerry was asked about th

elvira nabiullina has been criticized for the ruble's collapse. ryan chilcote began by asking her whether the ruble will tumble again. >> we are of course not expecting any massive decrease in the ruble's exchange rate, because the decline in the oil price was the third biggest in the last four years and the amount of external debt that has to be paid this year is about one third less than last year. >> year on year inflation, could it go beyond 20%? >> inflation may be higher than the current 15%, but this higher level is driven by past taxes. moreover, i'd like to point out that other inflationary factors -- [indiscernible] we expect a contraction in economic activity and demand. on top of that, we have money supply data. that's why we expect inflation to slow down in the second quarter, after the second quarter, in the second half of the year, and into 2016. that's why there is no reason to talk about the inevitability of a rate increase. >> when do you see lowering rates? >> we will make the decision on rates based on our analysis of the situa