endocrine living the life in hong kong -- enda curran living the life in hong kong.to go to you on the wto. i sat in hong kong with jimmy chang hundred years ago with the enthusiasm of globalization. wto looks first sub 3% gdp which by my hong kong textbooks is a global recession. how does china react to a syrup we percent -- sub 3% gdp? enda: china has been going bankrupt -- gangbusters since the pandemic began so they have been relying on exports as the pillar of growth for their recovery. now with the downturn the wto are talking about, certainly chinese manufacturers expectations, and now we have the complication of the u.s. russia -- the russian invasion of ukraine and the chinese covid lockdowns. that will likely spillover to supply chains. when you stack it together and see the wto forecast, it does suggest downward pressure on china and export this year. lisa: how much are we looking at social unrest in china? we hear about issues of food and complaints of lockdowns don't seem related to science. how far has this gone? enda: there certainly has been disconten

enda: exactly. being described as a cocktail of sharks that is facing emerging economies, you have the big debt load post-pandemic, raising interest rates, foreign currencies weakening, foreign investors pulling their money out, and inflation in places we haven't seen for decades, both due to energy and commodity prices, and food prices on the back of russia's invasion of ukraine. what we are seeing is significant pressure on emerging economies. not all of them. some are well-placed, but places like tunisia, peru, pakistan, are on the line for disruption and it will continue to play out, in terms of those governments struggling to gain financing, and struggling to keep their economies on track. yvonne: we were just talking about sri lanka. it has been front and center. but they are not alone. where do you see the most signs of stress right now in this part of the world? enda: i think most people our looking at those countries that are running down their foreign exchange reserves struggling to pay th

enda: it seems to be the scenario right now. zero covid is hurting the economy in a much deeper way than anyone anticipated. bloomberg economics talking about growth of 3.6% this year. that's all down to covered zero ruling lockdowns, her to consumers and industrial production. we did have some news with a readout from the politburo meeting. they are talking about more support for the economy and have highlighted the need to boost consumption. they are talking about taking pressure off the property market. there is reference to platform companies as well. that's being taken as a signal that they are getting serious about the growth story in china. we don't have specifics on measures, but it indicates horse --more support is coming. dani: that's and the hong kong. -- enda current in hong kong. we have progress on talks between u.s. and china on company audits. let's bring in juliette saly with the details. juliette: we saw a huge turnaround before those politburo lines were released i have an hour or so ago in the morning session

we are joined now by cheap asia economics correspondent enda curran and juliette saly.umbers we got today, the mobility restrictions, what's the overarching picture of the economy in china? >> it's one of ongoing disruption and uncertainty. the very aggressive approach to containing covid is continuing as we see with the lockdown in shanghai. in guangzhou they will be going down a similar road with testing underway. that is pushing pressure on the consumer side, and as a threat to the manufacturing industrial story in china. there has not been widespread reports of china, but is it is expected to start showing up soon we saw some of that in the indian inflation data you mentioned. consumer prices reflecting 878% increase in -- a 78% increase in vegetable prices. and factories are now facing rising prices and covid disruptions. it is certainly downward pressure on the economy. manus: let's cross over to jules, there are consequences of this covid policy and of tech policy on the equity markets. jules, what did you do with the yield advantage? [laughter] juliette: it's go

enda curran has more on powell's latest comments. david english gets us current on the chinese market and maria tadeo with the latest on the ground in ukraine and francine lacqua is looking ahead to the french election this weekend. dani: let's start with fed chair jay powell who appears to be heartening his hawkish pivot. he is potentially endorsing two or more half-point rate hikes. let's go to enda curran for more , this seems like perhaps the most clear path to tightening that powell has laid out to date. enda: he more or less confirmed a 50 basis point in may, but he said there is a case for frontloading which people have interpreted as saying they might go by another 50 in june as well. we have had action this morning with nomura coming out with a note that they say they expect the fed to go by 75 in june and july. the whole fed conversation is now focusing on frontloading a very aggressive rate hiking cycle which is prompting warnings of a u.s. recession. manus: maybe he would be foolish not to jump through the 50 basis point

enda: good morning.ey issue, if sharif is elected, pakistan has a government back on track and that is critical for negotiations with external creditors, principally the imf. there is the remainder of a $3 billion loan on the table. currency is at a record low against the dollar. their own holdings affording change reserves at a two-year low number only enough to cover a couple of months of imports. we know inflation is accelerating. the central bank last week raise rates the most since 1996, by 200 basis points. in terms of the economic story in pakistan and currency, creditors have to assume that getting a government in place is a critical component to the next step, which is securing the imf financing. shery: sharif has a reputation as business friendly. what can we expect? enda: that is an interesting dynamic to come out of this. sharif is seen on paper as a business friendly person and that might suggest he is willing to go with measures and reforms the imf would typically require conditionality of

and our correspondent enda curran on the impact of the covid lockdown in china. and juliette saly in singapore on asian markets. manus: to russia first, it is facing further economic isolation as european governments debate more sanctions after the images from bucha showed mass graves with civilian casualties that ukraine is accusing russian troops of committing during the retreat from the capital. maria, the international reaction to these graphic scenes out of ukraine over the weekend. it has been a harrowing weekend of images. maria: it is. and we have seen the pictures out of bucha as the ukrainian army entered the city. officials say they found more than 400 civilians dead. when you look at the allegations , a very serious, about execution, sexual violence and civilians targeted for no reason. ukraine has that we will pursue a case against russia. the united states says it will help them put together the evidence. this is happening right here in central europe on our away from where i am, and shaking the conscious upbeat political leaders in europe. it will

for more, we are joined by enda curren. over $1 trillion a year in terms of the maximum cap, what were the big takeaways from the fomc? >> another pivot. last month, they were buying bonds. now they are talking about running down the balance sheet by $100 billion a month, just over $1 trillion a year. that caught a lot of attention. the second big takeaway was the members of the fomc were talking about a 50 basis point hike. that was considered an outline view. had it not been for the russian invasion of ukraine, they may have gone ahead with it. that is going to like. enough expectations 50 in may, and go 50 again after that. talking with the balance sheets and the rate hikes, it is an aggressive pivot. the fed is racing to get ahead of the curve. they had been conscious they were behind the curve, but setting a record as they go into the second half of the year. manus: thank you very much. enda curren with the latest on defining the hawkishness of the fomc minutes. -- targeting to of russia's biggest banks and two of puti

enda curran to talk us through the whole inflation. we have marked champion with the latest on the war in ukraine. dani: let's start with new zealand whose central bank has raised interest rates by half a percentage point. let's get more with bloomberg's juliette saly in singapore. break down the decision for us and the market reaction. juliette: catching about 15 of the 20 economists off guard, they are expecting a quarter-point hike. they are saying the path of least regret is to move more aggressively now rather than to have to play catch-up down the track as they grapple with inflation. the rbnz likes the inflation but -- to be between 1% to 3%. they've increased rates by 125 basis points since october force -- october 4. you could see another 50 basis point hike, 50% chance of that coming through in the may meeting. asb and kiwi bank calling for that. let's have a look at what it did to market reaction. we are seeing yields yet -- drop. we saw quite a big move. let's have a look in the two year yield in particular. dropping 14 bas

roecr: that'why i stted this gro down churcdown hereand i ll up enda and i id, "younow, we uld like tget togeer and d somethg like ts," and didn't kw if it s gonna too so after ln had paed awayand i di't want toush her in somethi like th but wanted to ha her volved. statz: iaid, "i n't knowf i'llalk, but will me," and s very nvous goi to the very firsteeting. endeup with peoe at our rst meetg, and ty came om everyere. i mn, there is a nd. roecr: and tt was the beginng of thearmer anl network, so we got together, and there was a lot of tears shed at the first couple of meetings. i got a call last week from a farmer, and he wanted to know what the next step would be to get help for his neph. stat there a so manyrises lineout there, buteople don't ow they' there. ecker: wl, the tng of it is, to i thinkhat... won: i wento my fit meetg just o of curiity and just to kind of learn more. i thought, "we have to have ourselves a..." we were struggling ourselves about making a chae out ofairy faing. it st felt normal tme to noget up and to thbarn rig away. i justanted toee what lp the was avlable f

we are joined by enda curran. how important are these numbers going to be? will they signal a peak in u.s. inflation? >> there is some expectation that there will be a peak in the numbers that come out today. the big ticket purchases have been made -- used car sales could come off the board and that will flow through. energy costs have continued to remain elevated on the back of russia's invasion of the ukraine. we have high rents in the u.s. on top of the ongoing supply chain issues and the china story may feed into that. there is the potential for significant supply chain disruptions. there is a feeling that this might be the high point or inflation in the u.s. but it has a long way to go before it gets back to the fed to percent target and that is why everyone is expecting the fed to stay on the aggressive hiking cycle. manus: charlie evans pivoting to a 50 basis point discussion yesterday is very much a pivotal moment for me. thank you for wrapping up the latest expect patients. the austrian chancellor felt rather pessimistic about the prospects of peace

yvonne: thank you, enda curran our chief asia correspondent. everything when it comes to sri lanka.talking about nearly two thirds of children in ukraine thought to have been displaced by russia's invasion. we will speak to save the children next. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: vladimir putin says peace talks with ukraine are "at a dead-end." you saw the market moves. has really vowed to continue the invasion. speaking of a joint press conference with the belarusian president, putin also denied allegations of war crimes, including killing unarmed civilians. western leaders called for international investigations of the deaths. haslinda: save the children has been calling on russia and ukraine to agree on immediate cease-fire in order to protect children as they face violence, hunger, illness, trafficking, and abuse. the agency says the child in ukraine has become a refugee almost every single second of the war. joining us is irina saghoyan, eastern europe director for save the children. good to have you with us. give us a sense of what is happening on the ground. two months into the w

enda: as hawkish as you can get. brain already made it very clear that inflation is now paramount for the fed. interest rates are going to go up which has introduced an idea of a rapid shrinking of the balance sheet. that will be different to the last cycle. because the economy is stronger, she seeing conditions rely on a faster rundown of the bond sheets. interest rates going up. that will be of arab -- very powerful pencil on the economy. the kansas effect. it could go by 50 basis points as well as next meeting or through the year. that's backing up the message from the top. jerome powell has made similar points. at all points towards, the fed is now very determined not just to catch up with the curve but to get ahead of the curve. they are deadly serious about the pace of interest rate hikes. they are going to move hard on the balance sheet. it's as hawkish as you can imagine. we will see some of that spill over to the rest of the emerging economy world as the weeks go by. dani: the question is, have you been to c

and a current -- and occurring enda joins us now. >> this is significant when you look at the numbersry, they were looking at 4.1% for a year. down from 5-7 percent last year. -- 5.7% last year. carmen reinhart detailed the issues. a lot of issues coming from the russian invasion of ukraine. there is concern about inflation and rising debt levels and food security. another initiative the world bank is talking about is the idea of another package that will go to the low and middle income countries. there is a lot of debt stress there. a long-running theme is protracted negotiations at the g20 level to get some agreement around restructuring of debt for those countries. perhaps with the world bank weighing in, there may be some new urgency on those talks. i would say a material downgrade for global growth even if it was expected by anyone's standards. >> james bullard floating the possibility of a 75 basis point hike. >> in that cycle, there was a 75 basis point hike at that point. i would not rule it out. >> how much of this is posturing? how much of it is a real -- is it a real possib

he leaves the board later in the year enda curran ceo also tweeted out his excitement, an embracing of the board. what is interesting that by naming musk to the board which came as a surprise to many because it same so lightning quick, it was also a search egypt move many analysts say because it limits his stake in the company to below 15% which prevents any possible takeover. we saw musk refile after that to indicate he is an active investor as opposed to his initial classification which made eyebrows raised indicating he was a passive investor. again, twitter's stock has been under pressure since late 2021, so a lot of questions about what happened going forward. but we know musk tweeted right after the big news came out about the filing yesterday, he put out a twitter poll. did his followers want to see an edit button on twitter? we already heard from twitter management that they have been working on this, apparently for the better part of a year, and are planning to do so. that has also indicated, many say, that there have been conversations between musk an d internally with twitte