manus: ok, enda, we will catch up a little later on. scorching hot prints, does it lead to scorched earth policy from the fed? the euro dropped through parity yesterday despite some of the other pressures around the fx market, that stronger cpi print, 100 basis points risk from the fed is setting the tone. garfield reynolds is our chief fx and rates correspondent, here we are, the rates market is almost assured of 100 basis points. my question to you is, is the dollar fully priced for 100 basis points? garfield: it's quite possible it is price for 100 basis points. it is harder for it to price for that type of a move. we have seen recession peers become realities in the bond markets. we have 50 basis points of cuts priced in for the second half of next year. we have some banks forecasting larger cuts. once you are getting that certain about recession on the table in the u.s., not so much in europe, and if it is going to come, it might not be as deep or it depends on what russia does. that's part of why, although the euro went just below

enda: we are getting hints of that.re is a state backed fund to help developers, but it will be getting money to finished projects. the regulator making clear that those flats that have not been finished, they will be finished. ultimately, the people who bought the flats will be made whole. the investors may have to take a haircut. jonathan: tell me what you are hearing, what is being reported in the mainland. any reports of social unrest falling over? enda: certainly signs of a lot of unhappiness. combine that with the mortgage boycotts, that is a striking move, a side of discontent. but we have not seen anything broader than that. that is why authorities are moving fast with this solution, make sure that these flats get finished and that the homebuyers are made whole. jonathan: wonderful to get your perspective on all of this. social unrest, the real threat for the chinese communist party, which to his point, they are trying to address this before we even get to that position. tom: the council on foreign relations, pr

let's bring in enda curran.this embolden the be ok particularly, as they have raised the minimum wage there and there are concerns that they would be feeding into this feedback loop of inflation and wage expectations? enda this comes a week before: the next be ok meeting. lock the need for a 50 basis point hike. he's already signaled they will do what they need to do. like you mentioned, some factors that south korea's try to keep an eye on is the risk of a wage price borrow. minimum wage up by 5%. workers voting to go on strike. those are triggers for any central bank really. and of course, let's not forget the fed impact, because the fed is aggressively hiking and that is putting downward pressure on the you want and inflation. south korean policymakers look at this this morning, 6%, highest since 1998, at the very least they will have to say it lends itself towards a 50 basis point move when they meet next week. david: what about china? let's talk about that. we have another data point within the pmi of cours

enda: there does seem to be some momentum. our colleagues in washington reporting this is high on the agenda for the biden administration. we had those stocks this morning between the u.s. treasury secretary and her counterpart, china's vice premier. there are chinese worries over sanctions and chinese companies in the u.s. they also raise concerns over the spillover from russia's invasion of ukraine. it points toward movement on tariffs but then the question becomes by how much will these derricks be reduced, will it be consumer or industrial goods and how soon will they go into effect? there was a lot of economists saying it is not necessarily a game changer for inflation, and neither is this a game changer for relations between both governments. it is the first sign since october pointing to incremental progress but nobody is really calling this a game changer. francine: tower enda curran there in hong kong. let's get more on the markets with yogi dewan, the chief executive officer of hassium asset management. there has bee

jonathan: a special thanks to enda on the latest. the team in asia did a fantastic job on letting us realize how rare this is. in all of japan in 2021, a gun related incidents. tom: over the years, six former japanese prime minister's assassinated. jonathan: waking up to the sad news that former japanese prime minister shinzo abe has died. ritika: former japanese prime minister abe has died after been shot after a campaign event. it is stunning news in a environment where guns are rare. the suspect was arrested. he was japan's longest-serving prime minister and was best known for his shock era p called aben -- shock therapy called abe nomics. boris johnson announcing he plans to resign. the conservative party wants to speed up the process to choose his successor by the end of the summer. the european central bank's third major climate stress test hitting a $71 billion, that adds up credit and market losses from increasing natural disasters and sweeping changes across industries. we spoke with ecb vice chair. >> what we have seen is a

we are joined by enda curran.alk us through this warning from the imf, of course, i had of cpi today. enda: slower growth and rising unemployment. they are now looking for growth of 2.3% gdp in the u.s. this year, down from 2.9%. they are expecting unemployment to go up to around 3.7%. they said policymakers need to be focused on tackling inflation but also said the stakes are very high. they warn it is going to be very challenging for the u.s. to pull this off without tipping the economy over into a recession. it does not give any details as to why they changed their forecast. we know the consumer side of things is coming off the ball. we will get the u.s. inflation numbers tonight, which are expected to come in around 8.8% and probably reinforce views that the fed will have to hike by 75 basis points. manus: we gear up to 100 basis point, that would be a shocker. enda curran in hong kong. asian markets are higher ahead of the key u.s. cpi data later today. let's bring in annabelle droulers. a busy day for centra

enda: this has to underscore government willingness now. interestingly, for central bank opted against putting extra liquidity in the financial system because they are saying there is enough liquidity there. there is a view that china doesn't need lower interest rates. that is not the tonic to solve the problems. it will come with more government spending, especially on infrastructure projects. most likely, maybe, we will see alternative energy projects getting off the ground, as well. we are already seeing stories of ramping up borrowing and spending. it will be a mix of extra spending, cut rates for small companies, and mostly on the fiscal side. the central bank will play for more support. matt: to me, the biggest shock was pointed out earlier. it is just a transparency. i can't believe that they are telling us the actual figures or what looks to be at least a huge mess from their forecasts. why? enda: there are those that say these figures themselves are already stretching things to our. they already look like too optimistic, but mostly

enda: a pretty downbeat set of numbers. second quarter gdp came in at 0.4%. much worse than expected. showing signs of the hole left in the economy by the big shanghai locked down over april and may. we had downbeat news showing that prices and activities continue to slide. that's a part of the economy that makes up 20% of total activity. that's a negative. on the more recent high-frequency indicators for june, better readings for retail sales, up 3% for the month. that was something of a rebound. there is caution there. inflation has an impact. industrial output showing stabilization. the take away could be china's economy bottoming out. it didn't speak to a big rebound. of course, it means the target of 5.5% is impossibly cheap this year. manus: that retail sow -- sale bounce, that was a mini trade. thank you very much. the very latest chinese data. the president of the united states is on his middle east trip and he says that he will raise the issue of human rights in his upcoming meeting with the saudi crown prince. let's get to yousef. good to see you. s

joining me now is enda curran. what was the key takeaway for you from this trade data?> exports up 18% in dollar terms and that is a big takeaway. a very strong set of results. it speaks to what you just said. production came back on line. factories were able to get their goods to the ports much easier. the ports system got up and running. it lends itself to china's manufacturing sector finding its feet. the end results were stronger than anticipated. the import side came in about 1%, speaking to the side that there are plenty of elements in china's economy that are not back to normal. even looking at the strong export figures, people are saying there is an inflationary impact. people are not confident that the trade story will remain as robust as it is in the months ahead. the numbers are what they are with a better-than-expected read. tom: a better-than-expected read and we also had the credit data coming in above expected, but also on the flipside, concerns about the property market. as you look across the broader economy, what is your assessment of the health of chi

let's discuss with chief asia correspondent, enda curran.ficance of this grace period? could it inject short-term confidence or backfire? enda: it is not unusual in china for homeowners to buy up the plans and get mortgage payments going straight away before the property is finished. as we know with property developers under so much stress at the moment increasingly, a couple hundred of these developments have stalled. what we are now seeing is a situation where the rules -- where they are refusing to pay the mortgages down. what is happening now is the financial regulators are discussing this idea of putting a pause on those mortgage payments, of granting that forbearance period to those mortgage holders until the developer gets finances sorted out. this is not yet confirmed. it is under consideration by the regulators. but it speaks to the idea that authorities are concerned both about the risk of systemic impact on the financial system and on the economy and of course they want to nip in the bud any hint of social unrest we are seeing fro

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dani: bloomberg's enda curran in hong kong. the reserve bank of australia delivered its first consecutive rates hike. perhaps not much enthusiasm and it comes to the market reaction. juliette saly is in singapore. juliette: let's get that chart on what we are seeing on the rba. there are gremlins in the system today. they mentioned inflation at a 21 year high, 5.1%. they are hopeful to get it back to 2%-3%, but they did mention it is not as high as in other countries. the rba indicating they will hike further. the market is close to a 185 basis point hike by years end. it will impact a lot of households, and we are looking at the cost of rising prices from floods, gas and electricity. in terms of market reaction, the aussie dollar dropped after that decision. yields looking flat when it comes to the three year. and the other story in the asia-pacific was this report about rolling back some tariffs. a big boost coming from the tech players in hong kong. manus: thank you very much. we will see what the actual delivery is. bloombe

enda: we did have a briefing by three pboc officials.m the laws is that they don't see the need to lower interest rates in china any further, that's because they say the money markets have enough liquidity there. and they say they are keeping an eye on domestic inflation. whether or not that means they are going to turn around their cycle from being on hold to actually raising rates, i think that's a long way down the road, but it does show that china probably isn't comfortable lowering rates and wants to stay on hold. shery: bloomberg's chief asia economic respondent with the latest central bank move. let's not get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. >> of biden demonstration is making a last ditch effort to move forward targeting china. the commerce secretary and defense secretary lloyd austin say that ship back is the only way to reduce reliance on foreign-made semiconductors. the house bipartisan support with senate minority leader mitch mcconnell blocking it while democrats negotiate a spending package. meanwhile, preside

enda: that's right, it continued to worsen, the boycott spread over the projects and in the provincebout a new bailout to help the real estate developers. and this is interesting because it will be the first date back bailouts on the idea that would appear to be the developers to keep them ticking over. we don't have too much more detail on it or how it will operate, but they are trying to close the loop and keep the stretch away from the banking system. that's happening as others in their property supply, such as those who supply real estate developers, they claim they are not getting paid for their goods and their work and they are starting to talk about boycotting deliveries to those real estate sectors. so it all adds up to a situation that continues to worsen for the authorities. we do see the response with the bailouts and i think going forward it will be the expectation that it will be more like this for the central government because they are desperate to close the loop on this and of course, to get a lid on any kind of social unrest stemming from it. >> bloomberg's chief asi

anna: enda curran with your set up for the fed. >> bloomberg has learned that president biden will speakh the chinese leader tomorrow. the call comes amid fresh tensions over taiwan and the fresh possibility of a visit by house speaker pelosi in early august. beijing has warned it will take strong measures against any visit. a district on the outskirts of who had -- of wuhan has been locked down affecting more than a million people. authorities gave the order after four asymptomatic cases were found in the area. coca-cola has matched estimates or -- smashed estimates for second quarter sales, a 6% increase in organic revenue growth, twice as much as forecast. mcdonald's also reported second quarter sales topping estimates as consumers continued eating out. its app and delivery services now account for almost a third of revenue. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. anna? anna: thanks very much, juliette saly in singapore with the first word news. we will come back to the earnings sto

in a moment, we'll hear from alexandra mackenzie in glasgow, and enda mcclafferty in belfast.his morning and keeping their powder dry but the welsh secretary simon hart was answering questions in the commons and he has been a borisjohnson boy list in the past few weeks on the question put to him in the commons, would he resign from the cabinet? his answer was no, he says the welsh office is carrying on with business as normal but that is not strictly true because his parliamentary private secretary virginia crosby is one of those people who has already put in her resignation. amongst a flurry of letters in the past 2a hours. some of her words were the most stinging talk about the allegations of impropriety and illegality in reaching the conclusion that the british public no longer trusted the prime minister to tell the truth. the leader of the welsh conservatives andrew davies had a more neutral statement saying it was disappointing and that now borisjohnson it was disappointing and that now boris johnson needed it was disappointing and that now borisjohnson needed to deliver

enda: a big sweep of data out of china this week, from gdp to the high-frequency numbers for june. i would keep an eye on the trade data this week. the external story has been a strong pillar of support for china's recovery, with some expectation of demand for chinese goods coming off, so let's see how the trade data goes. for the high-frequency indicators, retail spending for june would be a standout because june was supposed to be a better month when shanghai came out of lockdown there is no sense -- because of the policy we are enforcing. but it gets a good handle on how fast the recovery will be and how much work the authorities will have to in the second half. david: in the current, our chief asia economics were funded. -- correspondent. evergrande bondholders have rejected a payment plan. casino stocks under pressure, there was announcement this week that businesses including casinos are shut. so we are getting losses in the order you see here on your screen. rishaad: that territory is still the world's biggest gaming center. shanghai with the report of the ba.5. , they will

and a current, our chief mobile correspondent -- enda curran.tors are sour on twitter after the musk takeover deal falls flat. we look at the next moves from each side. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: asian stocks down 0.3%. the declines being led by -- stocks. we are seeing energy though holding on to some gain. despite the fact that we do have oil prices continuing their declines. wti and brent heading towards $100 a barrel. tech is also a loser in today's session which is surprising given the regulatory action when it comes to the fines coming from china. and in the u.s. trading, we have had tech heavyweights using ground including tesla and twitter. twitter shares falling about 11% in new york after elon musk walked away from his $44 billion deal to buy the company setting the scene for a disruptive legal battle. let's get more from su keenan. what are we expecting? su: the battle could put more pressure on the stock. it lost about 3.2 billion dollars and market value and that plunge alone. to recap some of the details. it was after the close of