erian . we will talk about the direction that biden is going. a result of the use of this bomb and other methods used to attack population centers , civilians were killed in gaza.

erian about the situation in america, i want to ask you about the situation in the zionist regime. after this al-aqsa storm and the seven or eight months that have passed and now these demonstrations , let's put all of this together. in your opinion , what important things have the zionist regime lost in all of these events ? indeed, the zionist regime of the occupying government suffered a lot of damage at different levels. first, it was defeated militarily on october 7 awe and strategic dignity. but we witnessed a transformation that the palestinians were able to defend themselves and strike and achieve a great victory with operations deep in the occupied territories. it becomes a nation of justice, which is a development and a really very important development. the zionists always considered themselves superior to international law , they always considered themselves superior to the international judicial system, and they never imagined that they would be exposed to the accused. to be exposed to the charge of genocide and genocide, an accusation that today is a constant of the i

mohamed el-erian and jeff rosenberg reacting.to move. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like making a scene. transferring your services has never been easier. get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? sure, honey! this generation is so dramatic! move with xfinity. jonathan: the jobs report, 20 seconds away. the scores going into it look like this. equity futures positive by .4%. on the nasdaq, up by .6%. in the bond market, the 2-year yields lower by two basis points. on a 10 year, down three or four basis points. the estimate in our survey, 240,000. mike mcgee can break it down. hey, mike. mike: jon, we seem to have some good news, at least as far as wall street is concerned, thinking that maybe the economy would slow, and one hunted 75 thousand is certainly slow compared -- 175,000 is certainly slow compared to what we have seen in recent months. 303,000 has c

this is what we have been warned about by mohamed el-erian. seven cuts up to 12.- seven cuts up to one or two. lisa: do we go to deere and the agriculture demand or do we go to walmart and what they say about the economic outlook? what will be the next when it gets the overview we used to get? jonathan: we will see if it flexes higher, we will get worried about the prospect of the turning over, goading from goldilocks to two cold which is what julian emanuel was talking about. boosting bets for two rate cuts this year, investors looking ahead to later market data with jobless claims into our time. a fed speak. -- a host of fed speak. president biden and former president trump agreeing to two debates, the first match of on cnn and september 10th on abc and will not be sponsored by the nonpartisan commission that has organize these events for decades. annmarie: 37 years. this was a long time coming. remember the rnc said they are leaving the commission and now the biden camp is saying we are not happy with the way the commission has worked. it has become obsolete an

mohamed el-erian, good to see you. happy talk, these good vibes about the u.s. economy? mohamed: happy talk testified on where we have been but dangerous looking forward. jonathan: jamie dimon sounded like you speaking to francine lacqua. there are a lot of inflationary forces in front of us, he said. he gave a list of reasons that you have given us before. the green economy, remilitarization, infrastructure spending, trade disputes, large fiscal deficits, what is the federal reserve fighting? mohamed: jamie and i have been on the same wavelength for a while. thank you for saying that. this is a reactive fed, a data-dependent and. when jamie and others list the things going forward that are inflationary in nature, that is not something that the fed talks about. they talk about the latest set of data. we will continue to have a reactive fed because they lost self-confidence in 2021 when they tried to be strategic and got the call horribly wrong. what is the safest thing to do? become data-dependent. jonathan: no strateg

mohamed el-erian has talked about it a few times.ow substantive this market seems to be to incoming information. we got to ask ourselves, do you think that is a future of that communication or a bug? lisa: i don't know if they have an answer. i think each individual fed official has a different kind of perspective at a time were ultimately, they don't know what they are going to do. they don't have a framework as mohamed el-erian has put out there. they don't have a sense of a longer-term trajectory of baseline rates. that was an area that jay powell steered away from completely in the conference. if you don't have a sense of what the destination is, how do you understand how to calibrate the journey? jonathan: if you're confused by fed communication, there is going to be more of it through the week. i don't know if that helps or harms their cause. remember it as a thank holiday in london and japan, so trash cat -- cache treasuries haven't started yet. the moment, yields down lower by five basis points. outside of that, the euro a li

i want to point to a comment from one of your peers mohamed el-erian he said this is too hawkish forverall well being do you agree or disagree with him? is the fed rating too long to cut rates? >> i would somehow disagree. i think the fed is not being hawkish at all i think what we are seeing and what markets are discounting is the fed's action is very focused on keeping liquidity in the system it is being extremely prudent with quantitative tightening and its only real action is rates. that's what is keeping the economy in a certain positive way. i think there's going to be some type of impact, obviously, with no way to bring down inflation down to 2% without making adjustments to the real economy and without getting a significant slowdown in lending and, obviously, the increase in money supply that is obvious. however, the fed is hugely accomm accommodative. it is being very open about its support for the banking system through the window channel and it is also being very, very optimistic about the situation of the economy therefore, i think what it is doing is trying to be as prud

. >> ross, i want to ask something else mohamed el-erian made comments about the fed decision yesterdayaying in part he worries how reactive this fed is and it may end up too hawkish for the economic well being with the domestic and international structures do you agree >> i think they could skew too hawkish. my take has been the last mile here with inflation is entirely about housing and part of the problem about housing is rates are too high if they play that wrong, they could end up too restrictive i think their history is staying hawkish too long and get aggressive when somethin breaks >> one more thing to bounce off you, ross, jeff gundlach had this to say. i want to get your opinion after this take. >> this is a pretty good environment. the type of strategy we have implemented will keep working and it has been working well for the past six months. that is, you know, you can get pretty good yields by investing in securities and fixed income market that aren't that risky. >> ross, your take quickly >> i would keep it high quality and high credit quality. you can get good yield on hi

jonathan: mohamed el-erian, too. is that what ray thinks?rie: she can bring a lot of people together. he said -- she said she would be around it if she has the right people around her. jonathan: what is this about pop stars uniting the country? not good. coming up, you're watching bloomberg surveillance. ♪ i can't believe you corporate types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one. jonathan: thank you for the support. you and i share the same problems. airports and where to watch football and i emphasize just empathize with oh till issues as well. thank you for the other people that reached out in the last 10 minutes, all three of you. equities now are just about unchanged on the sb 500 with yields higher i a single basis point. on our radar in about

annmarie: mohamed el-erian came out with a piece talking about the risks with the fed being data-dependentnd one is the concern of the data dependent fed coming at the risk of a number of companies expressing concern about weakening consumer demand. that is particularly the case for those serving a lower income household where pandemic savings have been depleted. jonathan: the little later this morning, we hear from target and after the close this afternoon, we hear from nvidia. we will also hear from fed speak as well. also we get the fomc minutes later today. the standout for me for the comments in the last 24 hours, the fact that the last inflation report was graded and only gave it a c+. this market got carried away with it. lisa: it's passing but not great. he said they need to see several more months of good data. that can give them the confidence. this was the theme for all the fed speakers. none of them are comfortable talking about rate cuts in the near future with the idea that maybe we are talking about only one this year. i wonder how much the market will come around to this. a

. -- mohamed el-erian told us.hat is going on in the real economy when it comes to inflation. jonathan: we will catch up with mohammed later this afternoon, seconds after that fed decision drops. equities pulling back by .4% on the s&p 500. yields, we have seen quite a repricing over the past month or so. the 10-year at the moment, 4.6758. lisa: we were just hearing from earl davis you could potentially get to 5%. lavender lattes is not the thing i'm thinking about. i'm thinking about the five dollar cappuccino. the barrier to entry is so low. why would you pay five dollars or six dollars? this is something you have potential competition. annmarie: starbucks defense. if you don't drink regular milk they have a lot of options for non-dairy milks. if you continually purchase you get a lot of those cappuccinos for free. lisa: listen to her. jonathan: let the record show i mentioned bonds and lisa did not talk about them. she talked about coffee instead. as many seconds as you would like. lisa: i will have 10, which is

jonathan: mohamed el-erian was on yesterday and he pointed us towards what chairman powell was saying, >> emerging in places like mcdonald's, corporate america, walmart, starbucks. you can pick individual reasons as to why they are struggling, but are you seeing that? john: more like what's happening now is reflective of what's been happening for the last two years, leading to an end of the tightening cycle is where we are headed. so, the other side of this will be some relaxation. still, we don't think that rates are going back to where they were during emergency standards for the last 15 years between the gmc and the financial crisis with the pandemic and the fallout of that. but it is a normalization process and we have talked about it a lot. the perception around what a high interest rate is and what really is a realistic interest rate where bond buyers get something in return and bond issuers have to pay for the privilege of our owing money. sounds healthy to us and we are stock guys. lisa: ok but you're basically endorsing long variable lags, seeing it work through in the form o

mohamed el-erian would be there. lisa: he is now a swiftie.eview of the taylor swift performance on saturday apparently. this will work itself out over the next 12 months. is that still your stance? david: if you look at airline fares, we have air travel back above pre-pandemic levels. plenty of demand. the airline industry is competitive enough repairs to go down. in some areas of services and throughout the good industry is enough competition to push inflation down. this is not an inflationary economy. the only time this is an inflationary economy is when you have a huge supply chain disruption and huge fiscal stimulus when you are giving money to low and middle income households. that is one way to generate significant inflation. once you take that away inflation will drift down. annmarie: you think the market reaction is retail sales? tom: i think it is better than feared. this could have easily been .4%. the thing about inflation -- i don't know about the wisdom of stripping out an assortment of different things. stripping out 50% of more

dani: mohamed el-erian says you cannot get back to 2%.n order to do it, you cause unnecessary damage to the economy. is it right to get back to 2% or would that be ugly in this american economy? >> we've seen a lot of supply on this front. i think we are in a harder part of the cycle where if we look at labor force growth which is closer to 2% this year but you have things like participation close to the highest it's been in 20 years so i think it will get harder to see those additional supply-side gains with supply chains returning to more neutral levels are think the next phase of the inflation fight will require more pain and a bigger hit to demand and what we've seen over the past year or two. jonathan: you been talking about the last mile for a while, it's good to see you as always. looking ahead to data next week, cpi on may 15 along with retail sales. jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the estimate is 212 and the previous one was 208. here is your bloomberg brief. sonali: the bundle is back, disney and warner bros. discovery announcin

annmarie: mohamed el-erian says you have to listen to the earnings calls and what ceos are saying about week talked about latte shock. lisa: that really resonated with you. annmarie: because they are expensive. dani: only the lavender ones. lisa: we don't have that conversation coming up next. we have economic data in the markets with a little bit of a lift following yesterday's selloff, the biggest in three weeks. session highs, 5302. this is bloomberg. ♪ awkward question... is there going to be anything left... —left over? —yeah. oh, absolutely. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! i want a massage, in amalfi, from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years. not just— with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. i guess i'll get the caviar... just kidding. join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next. craig here pays too much for verizon wireless. so he sublet ha

jonathan: mohamed el-erian talks about stagflation re-wins. lara: the economy looks solid.y good place for the economy. i'm trying not to overthink it too much. jonathan: probably overthinking it? you're looking at inflation, what does growth look like at the back end of 2024? subadra: probably it will gradually slow down to the remainder the year. we are not overthinking it. the simplest path is for the fed to stay on hold for the remainder of the year instead of the conundrum that the ecb is in right now. the market is pricing in for a june cut. then the debate on whether they will cut again in july, if they will cut in september. this volatility of expectations is what is confusing investors. to me a very straightforward path this for the fed to stay on hold for as long as they possibly can and then embark on maybe a cut a quarter or some sort of a very steady path of rate cuts from then on as opposed to back-and-forth. lisa: lara raises the idea of inflation and growth and what happens when you move out of the inflation being offset by strong growth to maybe not stagfla