katie: joining us now is kathy jones and eric nelson of wells fargo. the data was messy this week that what we learned about the labor market in december, it feels like there is more optimism about the economy, is that premature? >> i think what we are in is an up-and-down rolling recession type of economy with areas of real weakness like housing and disinflationary pressures stemming from the supply side coming back and consumer spending. on the other hand, you have a firm labor market still and a fair amount of rebound in terms of optimism in the global economy so it's a mixed picture. our view is that we are still in a week -- a weakening economy and the risk is that the fed tightens into that and we will in the second half get a much weaker economy. katie: let's talk about what that means for the fed. it feels like we have the market trying to fight the fed but there is growing optimism, one that's been supported by bed numbers that there will be a further downshift in february to 25 basis points. we heard from the fred's desk the feds chris waller

here is a call from eric nelson wells fargo on the dollar.ning in china, we recommend buying aussie dollar, targeting a tactical gain of 4%. the dollar should soft and broadly over the next few weeks. tom: i am glad you put this up. this is important. a lot of different wall street types are looking at big figure moves. jonathan: tactical is the key word here. the rally we are seeing in base metals. tom: let's drive forward the conversation. torsten slok, really fancy. jonathan: i do not think you have to agree with him to think he is great. tom: maybe sub 2% yield. we continue with eric nelson, macro strategist at wells fargo. what he brings is serious mathematical panache from wake forest and johns hopkins university. let's look on the right side of the equation, the uncertainty out there. what is our level of belief in the data this morning at 8:30? >> we have had soft cpi numbers the past two months, so to see a third one would give the fed comfort at the next meeting and perhaps go 25 basis points. the bigger question is the employment c

tom: eric nelson at wells fargo generating strategy here in the some mulch was times.it is think earnings day. we will have more on this. our team worldwide in conference calls right now generating a forward view for the great american banks. international banks reporting along the first quarter. euro 108. japanese yen with real strength now 128.38. you need to watch japan which is our sunday evening, that will be very interesting to see we pause now as we have done on a yearly basis to talk to someone who had the courage to make a success in a disastrous industry. it's easy to be a success when you have the wind behind you. the thinking business, long ago tyler brule said we need some wallpaper and he came out with the magazine and i said yeah, yeah whatever. we did wallpaper and that was great on newsstands for years. then along came monocle. 15 years ago. if you don't know monocle, it's the magazine your kids are stealing. it's the magazine you can't get on airport newsstands because people have bought it. what's amazing about it is the vogue harper's bazaar thickne

. >> quick nelson mayor eric adams has said he wants to separate those career shoplifters from those in social services do you think he can do that something would you like to see happen. sure we would like any that effort helps whether it can happen i know i know from albany we support this initiative willing to work with him. thank you so much nelson when in a community like this, if there is repeated shoplifting not just hurting a huge corporation a small store within a small community remove grocery store fresh food meat he vegetables big impact why stores are instantaneouslying together asking for change maria. maria: great point madison not to mention scaring the entire community, thanks very much madison in bronx this morning next hour of mornings begins right now. . good they'res morning. thanks for joining us this morning i am maria bartiromo, thursday, january 12 top stories right now 8:00:012 on the east coast, more classified documents, have been found another round of dwmths found at a second he location, from biden's time as vice president, called are growing for an inv