eric rosengren is not convinced a rate cut is necessary. the u.k.e a brexit deal. twitter and facebook say they have proof of face -- fake undermine hong kong's protest. london,ncine lacqua in scarlet fu in new york. we look at the metrics and data points in the u.s., the inverted yield curve diss inverting and ting happened -- disinver and what happens next. francine: especially with jackson -- scarlet: especially with jackson hole coming up, questions on how the federal reserve will address that. optimism building up as the united states delayed restrictions on u.s. companies from selling parts to huawei. we have heard this story many times. scarlet: some data checks -- francine: some data checks, just to make sure. viviana: boston fed president eric rosengren keeps pushing back against further rate cuts, telling bloomberg he is not convinced slowing trade and global growth will hurt the u.s. economy and wants to see evidence the u.s. is going into more of a slowdown. ishong kong, carrie lam pledging a new effort at creating dialogue with governme

we hear exclusively from eric rosengren. china is accused of using social media to undermine the protest in hong kong. twitter and facebook delete a string of fake accounts. shery: how markets closed. it was another day of strong rally with the s&p 500 gaining more than 1%. every sector was in the green. energy amtech led the gains. lead the- and tech gains. a positive sentiment with trade. that was reflected with the u.s. dollar. it rallied to this year's high. gain 250 points. the nasdaq up 1.4%.

coming up in a few minutes, boston fed president eric rosengren sits down with an exclusive interviewh kathleen hays in boston. you don't want to miss that one before the jackson hole symposium later this week. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: i'm ritika gupta with bloomberg first word news. the acting director of the federal bureau of prisons has been removed from his position. no reason was given for their reassignment but the move comes as the bureau faces increased scrutiny over the suicide of financier jeffrey epstein while he was in federal custody. the fbi and justice department inspector general are investigating. he also led the agency when james whitey bulger was killed in federal prison in west virginia in october. british prime minister boris johnson is dismissing the notion of recalling parliament ali from it summer break. over the weekend, leaked government documents warned of widespread food, water, and medications shortages, and boarded delays in the event of a no deal brexit. johnson says the report is out of date and house of commons will return as planned on september 3

eric rosengren spoke to bloomberg exclusive easily -- bloomberg exclusively yesterday and poured cold water on cutting a lot. eric: forecasters still expect we will get reasonable growth over the second half of the year. bond rates are low, but i think reflective of global conditions. i want to see evidence that we are actually going into something that is more of a slowdown. if i'm growing at 2%, i'm not as worried about that. david: this isn't a huge surprise. mr. rosengren was one of the two ssenters on the last cut. eric: he's been consistent -- vincent: he's been consistent. so here he is saying basically the same thing. where i thinkates they should be, and i don't see a recession, so why cut? alix: does he have a point? luke: i think rosengren has two interesting points worth noting. the first is whether or not it is the job of the fed to offset global weakness. a couple of days ago, trump tweeted about another commentator, saying we need an america first central bank. i think rosengren just confirmed it is not one that's going to be lowering rates aggressively. point is i don'

i would like to give you perspective on eric rosengren.en on the boston fed for many years as an economist doing research. head of bank supervision before he became president in 2007. oh, he sounds like a hawk. maybe he is now but at the beginning of the financial crisis, that was a last time he dissented. he dissented because he wanted rate cuts ahead of his colleagues. he wanted more quantitative it easy. he was in a different position as how to move the economy. i have to say at the very least, i don't see him as a dogmatic heofficial but you just heard hs view. he wants to see something happen in the economy before he moves. as for president trump and what it means, does it make it more difficult to do your job is basically what i said? he said, our job is to achieve a dual mandate of low unemployment and price stability. it is not the fight trade wars, said exchange rates. clearly, everyone knows what the president is saying. i think all of them are saying we are going to do our job, do the right thing and that president trump tweet a

boston fed president eric rosengren says it is not up to the fed to make up for weakness in other economies. we will look at sentiment heading into this week's jackson hole symposium. watchdogs are rolling out the long anticipated overhaul of the volcker rule. streaming wars are gearing up. rollout itsto script fiction services by november, the company's first mediaay into subscriptions. first, a look at the markets with taylor riggs. halfway into the trading day. taylor: a little bit lower today. 2900 on theng about s&p 500. not getting very much and direction. take a look at the new york faang index. baidu coming out with better-than-expected earnings, pushing that index higher. in the last three days, up 6%. facebook coming out, facing eu.trust scrutiny from the twitter, baidu leading the way. we mentioned apple as well. we talk about the market cap of these companies. atrosoft clearly in the lead $1 trillion. every time apple hits that show in mark, they bounce off and hover a little lower. -- we are awaiting that apple plus streaming service. we should get done by november. this as the

eric rosengren, he explained his dissent.things the economy is still strong enough and it is not the fed's job to fight trade wars. ress jay powell on friday. one more chart. it is retail sales. as long as consumer spending, and you can see how they came in stronger than forecast in the latest reading. not really roaring yet but this is the kind of thing eric rosengren is pointing to. is this the type of thing that jay powell references as well? signaling maybe the door is open, maybe a crack, but whether they walk through it is data dependent. global economics and policy editor kathleen hays, thank you. president trump has agreed to drastically scale back plans to slash billions of dollars in foreign aid after secretary of state mike pompeo persuaded him against the move. let's get the latest now from washington. joe, what did pompeo say to get the cuts off the table? or are they all off the table? joe: it is probably not a settled issue yet. this is a long-standing fight. a number of republican budget hawks among them. the

you all had a good interview with eric rosengren about two years ago. you have to think about who is at table and who votes he was articulate on this, it wasn't required or necessary that was his view. if you look at who is a thought leader at that table, he's one of the grade thought leadeat th. you have to play according to the real economy we had moments where we had economic weakness appear to be the case yet we have aroar back on personal spending here the unemployment claims are not that great we still have full employment in every category so i -- here's what i worry about. with all due respect to the great market operators at the table, they hear what they want to hear, not what's being said the market is so hooked on cheap money that they want to hear it will continue to stay that way or get cheaper i would suggest that the yield curve is not being driven by the fed. it's not being driven more than one year out by the fed, rates keep going down. who is doing that? investors that find the rest of the world to be enormously unattractive and the u

it's quite interesting because when you listen to boston fed president eric rosengren he was saying,t doesn't mean the u.s. should be cutting rates. shery: to your point earlier that a curve inversion is a shows thatsion, this when the curve invert it we saw assets not doing much of anything but after when the curve steepen and when we saw assets falling like gold, the s&p 500. gold rallying. when do we need to start positioning for the inevitable? when the curve inverts for me that's a signal of the potential for meaningful slowdown in growth. about a year after the curve inverts. but thebeen preoccupied three month tenure part has been inverted since may. that's the metric the fed tends to look at. period of extended inversion ultimately leads to a meaningful slowdown. the economy actually goes into a recession in 2020. the market dynamics are actually playing out to corroborate that kind of trajectory because you have seen this the -- strength in gold. we are seeing the flattening of the curve, some widening of credit spreads. those are the metrics that indicate market concern for

matt: that was boston fed president eric rosengren speaking exclusively to bloomberg.a is still with us, the global head of flow strategy and solutions at socgen . let me ask what you thought about trump's tweet. is this just part of the art of the deal? is he asking for 100 and hoping to get 50? clearly given the election in 2020, having a strong equity market and economy is very important for him, but i also think he has been successful thus far by increasing the trade war rhetoric. he was able to get the bond market to price and interest-rate cut, which was ultimately delivered by the fed because you have to remember at the beginning of the year, a rate cut was clearly a remote possibility or not really in the cards of any economist. will be argument today whether a preemptive strike by central bank against the recession is the right thing to do and whether this will create more distortions and an increased leverage on corporate balance sheets and for us, this is the major concern. the high-yield and weakening of balance sheets in the u.s., particularly the triple b

people like your guest today, eric rosengren.ance to be forced into these cuts for markets. the market will probably be disappointed by what's going to happen at jackson hole. you would also maintain that the fed has been bymaneuvered in some ways the aussies cutting or intimating cutting way ahead. ,hey are being outmaneuvered and that has the dollar consequence for you. >> jerome powell in his last press conference talked about the easing journey the fed has been on. they are on hold for a bit. now they have cut rates. the biggest transmission mechanism powell could offer would be a weaker dollar. liabilities are in dollars. of -- out dout oved by the rest of the world central banks. if you keep talking like that, you get a call from the white house. nick wall. there is an interview don't want to miss. it is eric rosengren right here on bloomberg. ♪ ♪ matt: welcome to "bloomberg markets the european open." say, haven'tkets we seen this before a? chinese bank stocks fall as a rate revamp i the pboc is seen cutting into profits.

this has been signalled, eric rosengren in boston had a good interview with your folks at cnbc, m itclear, very logical what he was spelling out. the market tends to ignore him. the market is wishing, wishing and wishing for help. whenou cut interest rates it changes the way you discount the present value of future cash flows. we did that deliberately when we poured on, went to zero interest prates andred on three rounds of quantitative easing. that was t purposent a signal to the market. discount future cash fw in 2009 literally to infinity and the market has been doing that. now the process is slowly being unwound. it is painful for the markets. i don't expect them to necessarily cut. i think it is one and almost done for a while. it depends on the data as powell said. >> they've been data independent ford years. rich fischer, michael hartnet, thank you for joining us tonight. >> thank you. >> pleasure. >>> more evidence that the u.s. economy remains steady. according r to a newort companies added more jobs than expected in july. adp says private payrolls increased by 156,000, show

exclusive our interview with eric rosengren. kathleen hays speaking with eric rosengren.is is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: u.k. opposition leader jeremy corbyn is speaking in england. he is going to be taking for -- questions from the crowd he is expected to discuss the labour party stance on brexit. he is six -- he is said to be doing everything he can to prevent a no deal brexit. you can check it out on live go. francine: we will have more on jeremy corbyn, and the fact that he says if he does go to an election, -- ghost -- two pieces of data out of the io that we need to watch out for. inflation weaker than initially reported in july, and breaking moments ago, bundesbank warning that germany, your apostle largest economy come could be about to tip into recession -- economy, couldt be about to tip into recession. ecb palm 8 -- ecb policy makers consider more stimulus in september. the german finance minister talking about possible fiscal stimulus just as the ecb is making a little bit more. we are joined by matt miller, a european markets bloomberg anchor. this a direct warnin

our kathleen hays spoke with boston fed president eric rosengren.nts to see evidence of a slowdown to justify a rate cut. mr. rosengren: it was tied to the fact that economic conditions are still good. inflation is a little bit low. 1.6%. but if you take out some of the outliers, then it is closer to 2%. my own view was that we have to be careful not to ease too much when we don't have significant problems. the focus is not to do something that effects the exchange rate or something that takes care of the world economy. we are supposed to focus on unemployment, on inflation in the united states. there are costs to easing at times you don't need to. thats one of the ways monetary policy works is that you cause people to buy houses and cars earlier than they otherwise would. you choose to make an investment now because interest rates, you think, will be temporarily low. we loweris that when interest rates, we make the cost of that lower. firmseans households and are more likely to be leveraged. we have to think about the financial stability characteri

andon's eric rosengren jackson hole host kansas city's all say this is not the moment to cut. >> as i look at where the economy is, it is not time. i'm not ready to begin to provide more accommodation to the economy without seeing an outlook that suggests the economy is getting weaker. >> u.s. aviation regulators are said to be using inexperienced pilots to test new flight control software designed to help the boeing 737 max 8 return to service. we are told the faa wants to find out how pilots with only one year of 737 experience with at least one max flight relate to the -- reacts to the update. sources say simulator training has been pushed back a week. sales haveetail plummeted this month. that is as street protests inflict damage on the local economy. retail management association is calling on landlords to cut in half for the next six months and wants the government to provide relief measures. the value of retail sales dropped 6.7% in june from a year earlier. cautioning staff amid -- tha use of social media could be a breach of rules after staffer found to have taken part in hon

fed president -- eric rosengren, boston fed president.loomberg business flash. recession risks are low because consumer spending remains strong. that is the take from bank of america chief brian moynihan. he says global concerns have largely driven recent bond market turmoil. moynahan citing the slowdown in europe and china, and businesses having to rework their supply chains to deal with the trade dispute. u.s. tech companies will be in washington to testify in support of the president's possible tariffs for france. representatives will be at a public hearing opposing france's proposed 3% tax. the proposed tariffs could impact imports like french wine. porscheion for a car by failing to sell in california. in minutes, the auction was terminated because no bids over $17 million were made. the controversial car has been expected to sell for about $20 million. i'm viviana hurtado. that is your bloomberg business flash. david: i want to correct something. i misspoke earlier. wilbur ross is talking on foxbusiness news, but he gave us the answ

we hear exclusively from eric rosengren. china is accused of using social media to undermine the protest in hong kong. twitter and facebook delete a string of fake accounts. shery: how markets closed. it was another day of strong rally with the s&p 500 gaining more than 1%. every sector was in the green. energy amtech led the gains. lead the- and tech gains. a positive sentiment with trade. that was reflected with the u.s. dollar. it rallied to this year's high. gain 250 points. the nasdaq up 1.4%. doing much butt let's see how things will be shaping up in asia. conviction investors will be tested with futures looking at a mixed session. kiwi stops adding .6%. we have the strong dollar to contend with which may put a damper on risk appetite for emerging markets today. we are on tech watch. we have xiaomi's earnings on the lineup after baidu's results came out overnight. onay, we're keeping an eye the rba meeting minutes. trade data from taiwan and today rate the pboc's loan prime . a key milestone indeed, paul. paul: definit

the boston fed president eric rosengren was one of two members who voted against the cut in july.ned his dissent in an exclusive interview with kathleen hays. mr. rosengren it was tied to the : fact economic conditions are still pretty good. inflation is a little bit low. the core measure is 1.6%. if you take out some of the outliers using the dallas trim mean it is closer to 2%. ,my own view was we have to be careful not to ease too much when you do not have significant problems. the focus is not to do something that affects the exchange rate that necessarily takes care of the world economy. we are supposed to focus on unemployment and inflation in the united states and we are in a good place. there are costs to easing when we do not need to ease. >> what is the cost? mr. rosengren there are several : costs. you cause people to buy houses and cars earlier than they otherwise would. you make a temporal substitution. you make an investment now because interest rates are temporarily low. when we lower interest rates -- you make expenditures you might not otherwise have made. when we

. ♪ david: eric rosengren may not see the need yet for a further federal rate cut, but the presidentngs otherwise. reports are the white house say they may even be thinking about fiscal stimulus to help the economy. we welcome lanhee chen, hoover institution fellow and american public -- in american public policy studies. he comes to us today from mountain view, california. thank you for being with us. whether it is fiscal or monetary, is there reason to be concerned with the economy? we went to -- through this experience yesterday with a record low in the 30 year. our bond markets trying to tell us something? lanhee: the funny thing about the economy is you can look at various measures and divine friend kinds of conclusions. there is evidence to suggest that what we are seeing is slowing. the question is -- what are the appropriate interventions? what is the right timing? the white house talking potentially about payroll tax relief. that is a pretty significant measure, were they to move forward with it. the reality is yes, there is some indication of slowing. there is a question ab

and inclusive interview with eric rosengren on bloomberg television and radio.oming up at 1:30. sign up for the balance of power newsletter at bloomberg.com. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ at comcast, we didn't build the nation's largest gig-speed network just to make businesses run faster. we built it to help them go beyond. because beyond risk... welcome to the neighborhood, guys. there is reward. ♪ ♪ beyond work and life... who else could he be? there is the moment. beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. ♪ ♪ every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. ritika: i'm ritika gupta with bloomberg first word news. present trump is reiterating his criticism of the federal reserve from what he calls "the horrendous lack of vision" by chairman jay powell. on twitter, he urged the fed to cut interest rates by at least one percentage points to help the world's economy, adding the economy is very strong and will its are trying to to be bad for purposes of the 2020 election.

special coverage from jackson hole, later today we will bring you and axles of interview with eric rosengrenon fed. dissenter in june. looking forward to it. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ live from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets."time now for our stock of the hour. we are looking at estee lauder. shares are the best performer in 500, doing the best since february. emma chandra will take us through the numbers. emma: estee lauder shares hit a record high, with double-digit gains at the highs of the session. this builds on a big year for the $65 billion cosmetics giant. stock is up 40% year-to-date come outperforming their global peers. we seem to have the wrong graphic there, but hopefully we will be a be to bring you the right one. they've been putting in -- we will be able to bring you the right one. they've been putting in healthy returns, but still doing better with prestige products, particularly in skincare. they beat in both profits and sales, and now sees earnings this fiscal year of at least $5.90 a share. while sales growth decl

eric rosengren put out a statement as to why he descented and i'll read that to you.e unemployment rate near 50 year lows and inflation likely to rise and stability concerns elevated, he says given prices, i do not see a clear and compelling case for additional monetary accommodation at this time i think a lot of people on wall street, we heard from luke cooperman on the halftime report earlier this week agree with him. richard fisher agrees with him the question is, what costs will that have if any and has it already been priced out. we saw sharply stronger dollar it has been a strong dollar week as a result even after the fed cuts rates. >> we'll start watching currencies more closely. watch square today, beats by four cents, revenue ahead, they guide below and they announced the sale of a food ordering platform to door dash in a deal worth about $410 million in cash and stock. analyst call on square too that i might have seen or missed? not sure that was one of the big earnings reports that we were watching partly because of dorsey, twitter, having the best year ev

liz: i think what she said to you and add to that what eric rosengren of the boston fed said on monday, not to mention what we are hearing from at least one other fed head, the fed funds futures now, i know you know this, but we need the very latest look. let's get to breaking news right now. look at this, folks. up until this morning, we had mostly 100% odds of a rate cut next month when the fed meets. now, there is a 6.5% odds there will be no cut. while that is certainly swamped by the 93.5% odds there will be a cut, the fact that we are now seeing some doubt about rate cuts creep into the markets is absolutely significant, and you know, i think this is really important. we are going to constantly be keeping you guys updated to the very second. we are all about breaking market news because this matters to your portfolio and as edward st mentioned, we did see that yield curve inversion earlier, where the two-year yield gave more in yield than the ten-year. highly unusual, but it started to happen about a week ago. the treasury yield inverted for the first time since 2007, a week ago.

coming up on bloomberg, we speak exclusively to the boston fed president eric rosengren ahead of jackson hole. don't miss that 6:30 london time. an interview you don't want to miss. bloomberg radio is live on your mobile device anywhere in the world. you can tune in in the city on dab digital. ♪ matt: welcome back to "the european open." we are 18 minutes away from the start of cash trading. tuesday, italy's prime minister will address the senate amid the political chaos that has gripped the country. germany will auction 30 year bonds, a good gauge for appetite if yields continue to hold near record lows in the euro zone. thursday and friday, speaking of rates, the jackson hole symposium kicks off in wyoming. this year's gathering comes at a critical time with central banks in a crossroads between policy normalization and new stimulus measures. johnson's -- boris on the's debut international stage. the growing that of a no deal brexit on the agenda. let's get the latest on the trade story. donald trump said the u.s. is doing, quote, very well in talks with china. he added he is not ready

hole annual meeting of the kansas city fed, an exclusive interview with boston fed president eric rosengrenat is coming up wednesday. thanks to our oil reporter jessica summers. at 54.7t now is trading 0 a barrel. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> on ritika gupta. let's get the first word. president trump is meeting with national security advisor to talk about the peace agreement with palestine. talks have been regularly taking place in qatar although afghan authorities have been sidelined in the process. have refused to hold talks until it reaches a finding with the trump administration on withdrawing forces. the congo ebola outbreak is showing no signs of slowing down. it has spread to a near province with one death. more than 1800 people have died since the latest outbreak began. workers have struggled to contain ebola despite the use of a vaccine. many people in eastern congo do not trust doctors and medics. the russian pilot who managed to land his disabled plane in a cornfield's has a quick landing was his only chance to keep his passenger safe. he spoke to reporters in russia today. he landed

you had eric rosengren and esther george speaking to bloomberg and making their case why they don't thinke of other fed officials were speaking yesterday including pat harker of philadelphia, suggesting he is not ready to cut rates. he is not a voter like the others. wall street is beginning to question whether jay powell can deliver another rate cut. there will be a lot of attention on his speech. markets are pricing in a rate cut because markets are pricing in a rate cut. what does the fed think? why do they think there needs to be another reduction? if they get a cogent expectation it will be easier to make a bet going forward. scarlet: jay powell speaking is not the only big event. mark carney will be speaking later on. markignificant is it that carney and governor kuroda will not be attending? michael: it is august and europeans like to be on vacation. several members of the governing council are in jackson hole, including philip lane who will be speaking later on saturday. the more interesting question is kuroda. he has been here is a fairly regular attendee but decided this year no