john aft john avlon and also erick erickson, the editor in chief of redstate.com. ruben from "the washington post" and we have at host of "get right" with lenny mcalister. john, want to start with you. i like that insider thing that cnn did but it's not reflective of the polls everybody else is doing including cnn, so what's a girl to think moving into the last 36 hours? are the polls right, the insiders right? >> as you just said, the insider poll is just that, a poll of insiders in the state of what will happen and does reaffirm a lot of the other large polls that is that mitt romney is in poll position. ron paul can't be counted out. his supporters are so intense. caucuses are low turnout high intensity affairs. rick santorum getting the doughnut hole is a surprise. 60% of the turnout last time in 2008 which made mike huckabee the winner -- >> erick erickson, they often say and i'll repeat it that there are only three tickets out of iowa and the third ticket is pretty sought after and most people were assuming that it was going to be either rick santorum vying f

joining us live from iowa erick erickson editor in chief of. and rubin red rhett, "washington post." i think it's an understatement to say this is an unsettled field. seven head changes in the last six months. romney has been holding pretty steady here, 24%, 25%. has he reached his ceiling or can he get this conservative base back on board with him? >> i think he will probably go up in the polls. by the way, the des moines river is starting to freeze over. that's how cold it is here. while he's campaigning around the state, you've got to remember romney has been campaigning since 2006, from an average of 23% in the polls to an average of 23% of the polls. >> but do we think that he can increase his conservative base? at the end of the day that's what he's going to need going forward. >> i don't think he can. >> he will be able to increase it some. >> ruben? >> i don't think he k. i think the problem is going to be if you don't like romney to begin with, it's very hard for you to warm up to him just because he's the defacto nominee or even if he

donna brazile, erick erickson, mary matalin. >>> we're on google plus. add us to your circles. on twitter @andersoncooper. i'll try to tweet tonight though my hands are frozen. mitt romney said, we're going to win this thing. but just exactly what thing was he talking about? and a surprising admission from newt gingrich talking about his own chances tomorrow later rick santorum takes pride in his staunch conservative views. he's under fire for some of what he said but taking heat from ron paul who calls him too liberal. for sore muscles use new ] bengay cold therapy, it's pro-cool technology releases armies of snowmen masseuse who cuddle up with your soreness >>> let's also check in with isha sesay. new bengay cold the. the same technology used by physical therapists. go to bengay.com for a $3 coupon. can you enjoy vegetables with sauce the same technology used by physical therapists. and still reach your weight loss goals? you can with green giant frozen vegetables. over twenty delicious varieties have sixty calories or less per serving and are now weight watchers-endorsed. tr

john aft john avlon and also erick erickson, the editor in chief of redstate.com. ruben from "the washington post" and we have at host of "get right" with lenny mcalister. john, want to start with you. i like that insider thing that cnn did but it's not reflective of the polls everybody else is doing including cnn, so what's a girl to think moving into the last 36 hours? are the polls right, the insiders right? >> as you just said, the insider poll is just that, a poll of insiders in the state of what will happen and does reaffirm a lot of the other large polls that is that mitt romney is in poll position. ron paul can't be counted out. his supporters are so intense. caucuses are low turnout high intensity affairs. rick santorum getting the doughnut hole is a surprise. 60% of the turnout last time in 2008 which made mike huckabee the winner -- >> erick erickson, they often say and i'll repeat it that there are only three tickets out of iowa and the third ticket is pretty sought after and most people were assuming that it was going to be either rick santorum vying f

let's check in with alex castellanos, and also erick erickson. they're at santorum headquarters.oks a lot more crowded. looks like a lot more excitement there or energy there since last time we've talked. they've got to be excited about what they're seeing in the polls, and clearly waiting for some of those votes still to come in from the northwestern part of the state, from sioux city and elsewhere. >> yeah, finally voters are starting to outnumber media here. so you can see a little bit of excitement. but there's a lot of good news here for rorp rorm, for example, it appears he's doing well enough that he'll get attacked by mitt romney next week in south carolina. it appears ron paul has done well enough that he's going to get to attack everybody everywhere next week. so we've got a tough three-front war here that has broken out in iowa tonight. and one thing i think we're learning is that that big turnout that m ares were hoping for, were hoping to send a message to president obama that, hey, republicans are motivated. we may not get that tonight. it looks like this is going t

. >> newt gingrich and erick erickson calling for rick perry to get out of the race.ten to them. >> he's going to drop out. he's going to quit the race. the question is, does he quit on sunday or does he quit today? he wants someone to advance his agenda, the make washington as inconsequential as possible. he's not going to be the guy to do it. i think his campaign knows it. they're winding down to drop out on sunday or monday. so, why not do it today? he's got 6% right now. his people really like him. polls show that newt gingrich is the second most viable person for his supporters. there's still a number of undecided people. he could be the guy who makes newt gingrich win the race. >> i'm the only conservative who realistically has a chance to be the nominee. so, any vote for santorum or perry, in effect, is a vote to allow romney to become the nominee, because we've got to bring conservatives together in order to stop him. >> guys, is there a point where, you know, the candidate is sitting back, listening to all of this, and at some point says, wow, okay, i've got

to try and prove things like that will they pay contributors hire people like dana loesch and erick erickson and think that if they just pick them up against some liberal i mean they're showing both sides of the story and giving everybody a voice please if you think the paying people like dana loesch and giving her airtime to spread her vile commentary give you some shred of credibility i don't know what else to do but laugh or maybe cry i don't know overall i can just feel sorry for you the only thing that would give our mainstream media any credibility in this day to age will be returning to covering actual news for example the war in afghanistan america's longest war or how about being a government watchdog again questioning those in power rather than regurgitating their every word not buying into the partisan political game that keeps all of america distracted and completely ignorant of what's actually going on of what wars are being fought in their name and never asking why do you see all of that that's of the mainstream media chooses to miss. well tonight we're going to shine a light o

and cornell belcher, and erick erickson. tate super pacs can't have contact with campaigns or the candidates. is there any chance that someone like this guy sheldon adelson would fund a 27 minute anti-romney film if newt gingrich didn't want him to do it? >> probably not. they take their queues from candidates on the campaign trail. i think the issue of money and politics is overwrought by a lot of people. most voters don't care. the adds come one way or the other. the only thing sillier getting money out of politics is assuming we're going to have peace in the middle east. >> it might hurt romney. could it end up hurting gingrich as well? >> i think the bain attacks are going to hurt newt, could also hurt romney. there's a rally around romney because attacks on bain are seen as attack on profit and loss and that which makes capitalism work. job creation work. i have to remind everybody. the reason we have super pacs is campaign finance reform. the parties used to basically be the policemen, and they were unheard of when the

joining us live from iowa erick erickson editor in chief of. and rubin red rhett, "washington post." i think it's an understatement to say this is an unsettled field. seven head changes in the last six months. romney has been holding pretty steady here, 24%, 25%. has he reached his ceiling or can he get this conservative base back on board with him? >> i think he will probably go up in the polls. by the way, the des moines river is starting to freeze over. that's how cold it is here. while he's campaigning around the state, you've got to remember romney has been campaigning since 2006, from an average of 23% in the polls to an average of 23% of the polls. >> but do we think that he can increase his conservative base? at the end of the day that's what he's going to need going forward. >> i don't think he can. >> he will be able to increase it some. >> ruben? >> i don't think he k. i think the problem is going to be if you don't like romney to begin with, it's very hard for you to warm up to him just because he's the defacto nominee or even if he

>> i just want to say roland might be right, rick perry's not listening to erick erickson, but kudos or this, because we all saw that rick perry probably wasn't going to survive beyond south carolina, which meant he was going to drop out shortly after south carolina. but erick did see, there's no point in sticking in through south carolina. in fact, you have a net negative by staying in, showing up with a disappointing last place, having another bad debate. now's the time. i think erick called this really well. >> it was stunning, first of all, for him not to even come out after iowa. i mean, because literally, i mean, he put a lot on it. his whole message was supposed to be tailored to evangelicals in iowa. it got no response whatsoever. so, to go back to texas, then say, hey, i'm actually going on to south carolina, that was still sort of weird there as well. everybody -- show me a politician, i will show you someone who wants to be relevant. and of course, governor perry still wants to be relevant. if he got dusted on saturday and didn't drop out, he would have no relevance whatsoe

. >> erick erickson, when i heard that my stomach turned. newt gingrich said these are lies.ich is on the stump from now to the next 26 hours and calista is beside him, people if they now know the story knows she was cheating with him for six years while he was married to mariann and she was a congressional aide. is she a liability on the stump at this point? >> she could be. and it depends on how gingrich does this. for perspective you've got to remember it was marianne who broke up the first marriage. you get attacked for saying that but legitimate question. when people look at that and say we've got one woman who broke up the first marriage upset with the third woman. yeah, this is a problem for gingrich long term. my wife knows newt gingrich's first wife. she was her elementary schoolteacher. she really has a problem with this issue. and i think she speaks for a lot of women when she has a huge problem with newt gingrich and getting beyond this. for men, i don't know that lths as much of a hang-up but more women turn out to vote. that's a problem for newt gingrich. >> i'm

erick erickson, and democratic strategist donna brazile.the old days you win a state, you win the state and get all the delegates. nou now winner gets most. if you're ron paul, you're coming in a strong second and a strong third. there is every incentive to stay in the race to get to the convention in tampa and to be for the republicans maybe what jesse jackson was for the democrats back in the '80s. if you're the nominee, that word would be nuisance. no? >> i think that's right. if you're ron paul, you want to speak at the republican convention. you want that national audience. you want some influence on the platform and the party the republican candidate are going to carry to the general election. you hang in there a long time. if you're michele bachmann or rick perry, even if you lose to santorum in iowa, you want to wait and see if he collapses in two weeks like rick perry and newt gingrich did. you might stay in. so i think there is an incentive to happening around a while. >> let me bring the democrat into the conversation. this is th

let's go over to erick erickson and roland martin who have the liberty tab room in columbia in southina. eric, i've been reading your tweets tonight. you think the rise in gingrich has a lot to do with gingrich but also another factor here. what do you think it is? >> reporter: i think there's a resistance from base voters in south carolina and elsewhere. the electorate is conservative, they feel this should be a nomination fight and not a cor nation and they're pushing back on a lot of the washington republican crowd who have been telling them you have to take mitt romney. they're not willing to take mitt romney. he got less votes in 2012 in iowa than he got in 2008 and it looks like i would think based on the ground and the movement here and so many men turning out today he's probably going to lose south carolina. >> roland you agree with that? >> to some extent but here's what i'm looking for. newt gingrich wins, i want to see how fast erick's wife texts him to tell him he's sleeping on the couch. she will the no be happy if he wins. that's what i'm looking for. >> including my wi

. >> let's check in with erick erickson editor of redstate.com.torum's sweater vests? is that what you're wearing here? >> i've sewn some sleeves on it. it's cold here. >> what is the mood there tonight? >> you remember those movies where the american space capsule goes around the moon for the first time and we lose contact with it? that's the mood here. anxiety. everybody is waiting for the polls to close, for people to come back and give a little bit of information. media consultant ray braybender is tweaking the lights there. they just did a dry run with the campaign's theme song, heroic theme song to elevate the candidates. everybody is needles and pins waiting for the shoes to drop here. >> people have watched the so-called rick santorum surge in this des moines register poll which took place over four days. in the last two days of that poll. in the first two days he was around 15% or so or even below that. in the last couple of days he was in the 21 or 22%, finished 15% overall. how confident are they and to what do they attribute that surge

erick erickson, you expecting fireworks? >> i hope so.reat headlines for tomorrow's paper. >> appreciate your time. up next, we're going to give you a v.i.p. tour of what it's like to be in the candidate's shoes getting ready. ♪ [ male announcer ] why do we grow quaker oats? because there are mountains to climb. ♪ dreams to be realized. ♪ new worlds to be explored and hearts to be won. quaker oats. energy to get you going, fiber to help fill you up and help keep your heart healthy. super people eat super grains. you know, typical alarm clock. i am so glad to get rid of it. just to be able to wake up in the morning on your own. that's a big accomplishment to me. i don't know how much money i need. but i know that whatever i have that's what i'm going to live within. ♪ ♪ ♪ i'm really glad we took this last minute trip! you booked our room right? not yet, thanks for reminding me. wait, what? i have the hotels.com app so we can get a great deal even at the last minute. ah, well played sir. get the app. hotels.com. i'm forty-nine years-old, i

but these same people, whether it's george will or erick erickson or other conservative commentators, have lacked at all the other choices. they've now come around and i think they're saying we forgot to look at his record when we glossed over him. and upon closer inspection he's the only consistent conservative in this race. he's actually got a track record that he can bring to the table. he's got a history of bringing people together. and as it was said in a lengthy analytical piece a couple of months ago, he can beat barack obama in every set of circumstances that are thrown at the race. >> jon huntsman, obviously i would love to talk to you immediately when we know what happened in new hampshire. you can come and celebrate a great triumph or i'll buy you a foaming pint of bitter to console you. i'll ask you one question. and i want a one-word yes or no to this. newt gingrich tried to play mr. nus guy as mitt romney unloaded bombs on him through these pacs. and it clearly so far has backfired. if mitt romney decides you are a serious challenge to him following new hampshire or duri

but i want to read what erick erickson has released just this morning. and this is what i think a lot of small government conservatives are going to say. and by the way, erick does not support ron paul in any way. his headline is "republicans -- i'm sorry "the republican party surrenders to big government conservatism." as you wake up this morning, the tea party has failed because it has surrendered itself into the hands of romney, santorum, or gingrich. all of whom would use government to suit ends which is not conservative in and of itself. and willie, erick goes on to call gingrich, romney, and santorum big government conservatives three times. that's what we had with bush. and that's what a lot of people think we had with john mccain four years ago. and that's why there is this rebellion and why ron paul at least domestically is so attractive to so many conservatives who felt so betrayed by this party like i have for so long. >> this is the dilemma and has been for republicans as you pointed out for months on this show. who is that vessel who combines

erick erickson from red state, a popular conservative blog as well as laura ingraham on her radio showalling rick perry to make room an endorse newt gingrich. there are reports that is what he plans to do. what do you think? >> that is interesting. rick perry doesn't have a lot of actual votes. he doesn't have a lot of support. he has a good number of state legislators and members of congress from south carolina who were supporting his bid. if he took what he had worked on as a ground game in south carolina and turn it over to newt gingrich could that yield some results? perhaps. he is polling in the 5 to 7% range in south carolina. this is not as if somebody 15 to 20, a bigger share of the vote. it will mean this flood of support to newt gingrich, but, given gingrich's surge over the past few days, given fact he seems to pick up momentum, this could help. martha: it clearly might. might be sort of a tidal wave he might need to push him into closer range with mitt romney. let's put up the numbers in the control room. this is "real clear politics" average. look at south carolina. this i

martha: erick erickson's blog, red state, in fact says this morning if you come in third, this is, in blog, they're going out on a limb, if you come in third you will win the gop nomination. that is what they are saying this morning. think could be wrong. they're recognizing that is a pretty big statement at this point but do you think that's true? basically they're saying if you can win this second-tier group and they pit you against mitt romney they think you can win. >> martha, i don't have any doubt that if it is just me and mitt romney who the republican primary voter will pick all across this country. they will pick the true, authentic conservative, not a conservative of convenience that mitt romney is. martha: let me ask you this. you talked the past couple days about a "politico" story that said your campaign was very poorly run. if you do okay tonight, if you come in and i know you want to win and you may win, but let's say, worst case scenario you came in third or fourth, would you make any changes in your campaign? do you foresee having to sort of ramp it up if that's the c

from washington, our panel to chime in, erick erickson and democratic strategist bernard whitman andul steinhauser. paul, you're on the hot seat first. gingrich is facing the interview and we hear excerpts are going to be aired. how do you think that will affect him leading in. >> that storyline has been out there for a long time and he's talking about how he made mistakes in his personal life and he repented for this and he dealt with this a number of times. most voters are kind of giving a pass on this, but it really depends on what he says. his campaign, already, his surrogates active going after abc and trying to persuade them from not hearing this interview. if it does happen that he will have to talk about it most likely at our debate that will happen right behind me tonight at 8:00 eastern. stay tuned. >> all right, erick, let's talk about the poll here. i'm not sure. i imagine this new poll that we have also has perry at the bottom of the pact. you say perry should resign before the debate. rick perry's final act could be ringmaker here and have an impact. can you explain tha

only because rick perry announced he was running for president at a red state forum, and erick ericksonerry fan, and now he and other conservatives are saying get out of the way. >> there's one thing that he feels more strongly about is that he really does not want mitt romney to be the nominee. and so he's moved into that strategic position that some voters here are. i have a question for chuck, and i noticed last night that jeff greenfield tweeted that if gingrich were to win here you'd see a lot of establishment republicans starting to re-raise the question, can we get somebody else in this race because mitt romney might be too weak? not electable, not good enough candidate and gingrich is not -- chuck, do you think we're going to start if gingrich wins here, will we hear the republican establishment a cry go up for someone else to get in this race? and if that happens, is it possible? >> reporter: you know, i would say not yet. it would have to -- you would have to see romney collapse in florida too. i think ultimately the romney campaign has always seen florida as the real fire wal

believe is that if you believe the "wall street journal," if you believe red state, if you believe erick erickson, george will, jon huntsman jr. is the most conservative candidate in this republican race. and yet he could never connect with conservatives. all that being said, if i were in jon huntsman's place, i would probably get out today, as well. because much better that you leave with 17% in new hampshire and you're now known to the party and you can prepare for 2016 than losing in south carolina in single digits, losing in florida with single digits. now seems to be the best time for him to get out of the race. i will just tell you on a personal note, i hate to see it because he is one of the few true conservatives in this race. we are now left with big government conservatives. >> no, i would agree. i thought he would've added to the conversation. but it didn't take off. and willie geist, one of the reasons probably for what happened ultimately was what you were reporting at the end of the very important "way too early." >> yes, ma'am. >> which is that he was being outpolled by "daily show

especially since as erick erickson's saying, they are tearing each other to shreds in florida. it's two pit bulls going after a raw piece of meat. and the longer primaries go, i've said it here, the stronger the candidate becomes, but in this case it is becoming so personal, so self-destructive, that the president just looks like a -- >> i've been in a couple of different places since i was here a week ago, and i have to tell you, my instinct is, it's almost immeasurable the damage that newt gingrich has done to the republicans. almost immeasurable -- >> why do you say newt gingrich? you could go back over a guy who was a front-runner who quotes pokemon who is ill-equipped to answer questions about syria. i don't want to knock these candidates that are already out of the race, but i don't think you can just point to newt gingrich on this front. and i'm not defending him. i think it's scar tissue over the year of a republican primary that have had that lot of pretenders, a lot of jokes. >> there's no doubt about that. but i say newt gingrich specifically because he is the candid

. >> the wins are, i think, more impressive than the loss, but people like erick erickson are focusede loss. santorum has a good story to tell. we were talking a couple of days ago about story telling and the importance of story telling. i think he has a better story to tell than he's been out there about his own background and manufacturing ask tieing up his record and resume with the vision for the country. he's not really nailed it. >> matt, thank you very much, we'll be right back with much more "morning joe" live from java joes. ♪ i believe in dreams again ♪ oh, yeah ♪ 'cause i believe in you and me ♪ ♪ oh, boy ♪ i believe in miracles ♪ and i believe in you and me ♪ ♪ see, i was lost ♪ now i'm free ♪ 'cause i believe in you and me ♪ so i used my citi thank you card to pick up some accessories. a new belt. some nylons. and what girl wouldn't need new shoes? we talked about getting a diamond. but with all the thank you points i've been earning... ♪ ...i flew us to the rock i really had in mind. ♪ [ male announcer ] the citi thank you card. earn points you can use for travel on any

big government republicanism and the frustration that jonah is feeling, the frustration that erick ericksonnd i'll be honest, the frustration i'm feeling is right now you look around and say who's the alternative? where do we go from here? >> we're still asking that question? >> well, of course we are. what has changed? what has changed? that would have us not asking that question right now? and al, as you know, i mean, george w. bush won in 2004 because he was able to draw every last conservative voter out. he didn't go to the middle. he drew every conservative out, and that's how carl rove won that election for george w. bush. >> no, i think buchanan -- >> and mitt romney is not going to pull those people out. >> there's no way that i see a republican win unless you can unite the conservative base, which is clearly not happening. then when you couple the fact you have the ron paul element, it's going to be a very interesting convention. and let's not forget, in the whole trauma of what's going on right now with bain from newt gingrich. let's not forget what mitt romney did to gingrich in

charles krauthammer and even chris christie, the people that matter in this party, bill crystal, erick erickson our worst suspicions, he's an empty suit. >> yeah. >> tip o'neill once said, i had worked for him when he was speaker, and if any story ran about me a couple times it did, he would confront me, this big guy and say you running for something? >> exactly, get out of the way. >> which told you all you needed to know. >> he would tell me things like i've got more political brains in half my part of his body than -- >> which part of his body was that? >> he was very clear on the subject of who the brains were. >> having settled that -- >> -- on the romney campaign? >> i think somebody needs to explain who the campaign is for. i do. >> does somebody need to be fired? >> yeah, absolutely. you don't do that. >> some people at home don't understand it, it's all about the candidate. and mitt romney's about to win a huge victory in florida. and his own people have undermined him. >> you've upstaged the candidate pretty bad. >> and chris matthews knows this, they set -- reagan in '80, this staff

erick erickson, energy for red state, james carville, democratic strategist, roland martin, cnn contributor. what are you guys expecting? >> expecting mitt romney to win. just want to see what the margin of victory is. does he get where john mccain got in 2008 or close to where he got and what does jon huntsman do? come in second place, ahead of ron paul or is he in third? >> for you, 40% for mitt romney. what's needed. >> if he can surpass john mccain who's at 37.7, get into the 40% range, then it's going to be hard for anyone to make any kind of case. >> newt gingrich was trying to say 50%. to raise expectations. >> i'm curious to see what the intensity is like just like with an iowa. in iowa, the voter intensity was similar to 2008, which doesn't bode well for republicans, which should be a giant red flag. if this continues to be a trend, we're going to have the same scenario as 2008 and if mitt romney's the nominee, eric and i were discussing, doesn't quite have lengthy coat tails. what does that mean for house and senate? >> it is a small state. 300,000 people. >> it is. i've had some