awkward. >> as opposed to everything else we talked about. >> exactly. >> notable comments from esther george yesterday. the voting member saying she wants to raise interest rates slowly but surely. but she doesn't want to put the brakes on economic growth. george was one of three policymakers who dissented on the fed's decision last week to leave rates unchanged. she'll join us at 8:30 a.m. eastern. all the cut scuttlebutt about j yellen. someone conceded the hand wringing. they all -- i think they all do sit there, like 16 of them all at once and go like this. all right. everybody now. everybody now. >> wring together. >> three, two, one. i think they do. i think they sit here like this every meeting. >> they do feel the weight of the world on their shoulders. >> they shouldn't because we have gotten by for years without every single thing in the economy being micro managed. >> but they're in unchartered territory. >> whose fault is that? >> now they have to figure out how to get out of it. >> congress is sending president obama a bill to keep the u.s. government operating through december

we knew esther george has been dissenting for quite some time. eric rosengren was making the case for maintaining. said, basing it on the idea there are financial markets and balances happening. >> he has indicated he thinks it is time to hike. important the balance of risk is back in the statement. they took it out after the december meeting. we should see the probability dressed up. >> the december rate increase going up to 53 percent. mike: bringing in erik schatzker. the first timek: since december the 2014 that three of the voting members defended the majority. also, rosengren first hawkish defense. non-surprise only in that group for free. blog.king at the top live planning to raise rates very soon. what would have to happen for the fed to consider raising rates in november? i think that is a very long shot for the reason we described. anythingas not done yet the sheer. they can persuade themselves to wait. the dissent, the language. they think they have to hike at least once this year, and they will. mike: we are members looking at the rai

an here is our most hawkish fed president, esther george. is he is at 8.4.ack to you guys. >> i think i was a 3.2 in college. >>> fedex often considered a barometer of the global economy. tonight the package delivery company set strong sales lifted results. fedex reported earnings of 290 a share, 9 cents better than estimates. revenue up 20% from a year ago, more than 14.5 did his billion. and they were slightly better than expectations. investors encouraged by the results, sending shares up initially in extended hours trading. morgan brennan has the key take-away on fedex's results. >> reporter: fedex reporting quarterly earnings that were better than wall street analysts had expected. leading the delivery giant to boost its full-year adjusted earnings outlook. the higher profits were driven by gains in all three of the legacy segments, express, ground and freight. cost reductions at fedex express in which the company has been undertaking a year's long profit improvement plan seem to be paying off. and e-commerce growth helps contribute to a 10% jump in dai

but esther george of kansas city, loretta messter from cleveland and eric rosen green of boston all wantedo raise rates today. and the majority of the central bank officials now expect a rate hike before the end of the year >> most participants do expect that one increase in the federal funds rate will be appropriate th and i would expect to see that if we continue on the current course of labor market improvement, and there are no mainly new risks that develop and we simply stay on the current course. >> the feds' next meeting comes just one week before the november elections, with the fed chair dismissing statements from republican presidentialnominee, donald trump, that policy makers are playing politics with interest rate decisions. >> i can say emphatically that partisan politics plays no role in our decisions about the appropriate stance of monetary policy. we are trying to decide what the best policy is to foster price stability, and maximum employment. and to manage the variety of risks that we see as affecting the outlook. >> when asked specifically about the possibility of a nove

voting members including the boston fed president and esther george all dissented from the majority view to hold interest rates steady. sinces the most dissents 2014, plus sign up into alan greenspan -- a positive sign according to alan greenspan. the thing i did want to convey is that the fed had a single point of view and it was no discussion going on. vonnie: joining us is the chief monetary economist at cumberland advisors, and the former research director at the atlanta fed. three dissents. is this just an fomc that is ramping up for an actual increase? >> there has been evidence for some while that there has been a divergence of views among participants in the fomc. we saw president bullard coming out with statements around the jackson hole time. president williams has expressed views as well. a reflection of the fact that there is a diversity of views, and i agree with chairman greenspan that is is not a negative situation. when you are in uncharted waters, and there is no experience to guide you, reasonable people can and should have different views as to how policy should be for

eric rosengren, loretta mester, and esther george voted to raise interest rates to half a point at the matt: did you think we got what we expected? torsten: i think the major breaking news is definitely the dissents. for a long time, we have been interpreting all kinds of fed speak. some have moved in one direction and more in the other direction, but at the end of the day, the vote matters. matt: but didn't we know that? they each had given a speech in the past few weeks indicating that's what would happen. torsten: previously, we have had speeches where they have not dissented. so i think the fact they are voting for this makes a huge difference, and it sets us up for expectations in the future because part of the committee has said, "i have been loyal, but now i feel it's time to go," and i think it's an important development that we should pay attention to. ♪ matt: hedge fund manager leon cooperman is being accused of insider trading by u.s. regulators over his buying and selling of atlas pipeline partners shares before material event. the sec is charging that he used his status as

loretta messter from cleveland and esther george from kansas city. so those three suggest there is a lot of division inside the fed. and i know it may sound crazy, but perhaps november is on the table for rate hike. but a lot of them think more likely december when there is a press conference, melissa. >> you know, steve, when i sort of step back and looked all of the developments, particularly the fact that there are three -- earlier you mentioned there hadn't been that many discents on the fed since 2014 and then you have janet yellen saying one rate hike this year is certainly on the table. it almost seems like these are opposite forces. she's actually painting the fed into an even smaller corner than the fed had been in ever before. if the data softens, she basically already said shows going to do it. >> i don't think so. if you heard -- if you listen carefully to the sound bite that we ran earlier, all forecasts are contingent on the economy. it's kind of interesting. they didn't talk much about the recent weakness in the economy, which is the r

. >> how do you decision between stan fisher and esther george? food the u.s.richard: i actually assigned the most way to john williams. i think he has the most coherent and consistent articulation of the monetary policy he would like which coincides with the monetary policy i like. stan could do that as well, but has been less visible. >> i want to go from what they say to what they forecast. they have been using forward guidance to try to drive the market. larry sumners wrote two things, one that he thinks there is a good chance we get a recession and then he says if they try to fight it i wonder what credibility fed forward guidance is likely to have given the utter disconnect between the fed and market views regarding future rate of the track record so far of the fed being wrong and the market being right. does anybody believe what the fed is forecasting and if you do not believe it then had you make monetary policy? richard: i agree with that sentiment and i would make two points. the first point i think larry is right. the challenge people have said to me

. >> tomorrow morning from kansas city we will have esther george. >> that's cool. >> i will be at aw on minority banking and the issues surrounding that tomorrow at 8:30. and we're going to come to there from kansas city. >> we've been waiting for esther george. >> very excited. and you joe -- becky i'm sure would be. but joe, i'm sure fed speak is what you're after. >> and it's the missouri side, right? >> we were there, are ebb? >> no. we were in st. louis. not all mid-western cities are the same. you remember the arch? >> i remember the mcdonald's under the arch. that's where we used to stop all the time if we were good. >> there's no arch in kansas city. good steaks though. bring a couple back. that's a good idea. barbecue. >> steve is also a fisherman. it's patient which is why he's good for following the fed too. >> you're right. they're both very boring. >> or very interesting as long as you're patient. >>> our guest host this morning is mary ann tighe. she knows everything happening with real estate in this area. we focus on the numbers here a lot. we look at the economic nu

there are a number of people testifying in front of congress today including esther george.esss is on both populist conservatives and populist progressives angry about the fact that commercial choose the federal reserve's regional governors and the regional feds aren't really overseeing at least this is the charge the big banks enough. scarlet: it feels too cozy. matt: there's going to be an outcry on capitol hill today. watch for that. a lot of people are talking about glass-steagall. this analyst writes watch out for what happens after this election year. risk to the biggest banks is not necessarily low interest rates but populist anger. still ahead. is speaking trump in philadelphia. he is discussing military spending. when we come back we will discuss how trump and hillary clinton are preparing to answer questions on national security. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: you're watching bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. fu.let: i'm scarlet hillary clinton and donald trump will appear at a forum on national purity tonight. and nbc news poll shows trump among the to 66% military.

you'll be up watching my exclusive interview with esther george, the fed president. >>> stay right thereys think? john williams with the san francisco fed made some points. >> exactly. they're kind of rating where they stand. it's basically that camp within the fed, non-voters some of them. i think it's building up to the same kind of message which is, keep your eye on november/december. the markets had an interesting little flurry. the dow popped a little bit. after janet yellen in congress was asked something about it, all she really did was reiterate the current stance. >> i guess one thing that worries me a little bit, and i've heard this from john williams as well, is this idea we need to raise interest rates because we need to reload the ammunition for when things go wrong. i just feel like -- i would rather you hear, well, things are going very well, the 25 basis points won't make a difference to the economy, the economy will be just fine rather than, i have to reload because something really hairy is coming down the pipe. that always worries me. >> i think it was geitner and dali

with the exception of esther george, it is an echo chamber. , you had him and others that created a debatehat did not exist currently. alix: 3%. jonathan: way off. coming up, retail has never suffered an annual loss. the ceo is next. ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg ." here is what you need to know at this hour. deutsche bank shares rising after the german lender agreed to sell its u.k. insurance business for $1.2 billion. ceo john prine ruled out a capital increase. the german finance ministry said the government is not working on a plan to rescue the bank. a wells fargo chief executive officer fighting to keep his job amid a national political fervor. he will forgo more than $41 million of stock and salary as the bank investigates him. saudi arabia signaled it is ready to compromise with regional rival iran, potentially paving the way for the first limit on oil production in two years. although a deal is unlikely until opec's next meeting in november. that is what you need to know at this hour. you are looking at markets here. forget the fed. let's talk about opec. are watching things in t

i think stan fisher, esther george, would vote for a hike.et yellen is possible given her comments that the time is nearing for hiking rates. bill dudley might join her. and james bullard as well. unlikely perhaps daniel tarullo, and i don't know how j. powell would vote at the upcoming meeting. here's another chart says, hey, if the fed chair does decide to vote who would side with her and i think she essentially would have nine votes. i think all of those people would likely join, i don't know about brainard, but she would likely have nine votes if yellen decides that she wants to hike. and ten possibly depending upon how lael brainard decides to vote. carl, big question as to how the fed chair is processing those two weak ism reports that we had. it seems like a bunch of fed guys have spoken since those reports and it has not been enough to deter them from hiking, carl. >> i just wonder that wall graphic, steve, if you think that the odds for september are too low. >> i think it's possible, carl. it is a very, very close call. you know, i

assuming they hold, i would look for that from esther george, who has dissented in the past because shee day, we might see language that is a bit more hawkish in the statement to keep those people on board. that is the thing to look for. david: thank you for joining us from washington today. i want to continue with you, chris. was a dissent, how would the markets react? how would you react? mr. ailman:, personally, i would applaud because i think the fed needs to raise rates. the market might gyrate. the bond market will react the most. there is not a lot of news for stocks right now, so you could see some thing this week. pretty soon, we will end with this quarter, and then we will get back to earnings, because that is what really matters, corporate earnings. the fed, they have got september and then december. if they do not have anything now, that will be looking to december. for years, they were looking at the dot plot, the that has been off the table. david: does the fed need to be thinking about what the other central banks are doing? you can get the dollar driving up pretty dramat

today we welcome the testimony of esther george, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of kansas city. i know you're coming off a busy august with the jackson hole conclave that was put together. and i know that you met with a number of folks that are represented here today in the office, or in the audience. jeffrey lacquer, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of richmond. robert jones, bob jones, chairman and chief executive officer of old national bake corp., former board director for the federal reserve bank of st. louis. and mr. william spriggs, professor of economics at howard university. apparently he missed putting in the wisconsin part, ranking member. but i think that was undergrad. >> this is dr. spriggs. >> yes, dr. spriggs. each of you will be recognized for five minutes to give an oral presentation of your testimony without objection. each of your written statements will be part of the record. and with that, ms. george, we will recognize -- i'm sorry, we're going to go right in order, i guess. different from my she