bet as esther george will data dependent.here's politics and the president to consider and the fed tries not to take that too much into account, boy when you have a president tweeting about how if you were to be impeached and you doesn't think he well, we mustet will crash, be talking about the president's role in the economy here and how that might change going forward and what that would mean. no doubt they talk about on the sidelines but things are not recorded. the minutes show there was no discussion of the president's comments in july about the fed and what they should do. he has ramped up the pressure a little bit now. they cannot get into it. on the other hand there isn't much he can do about it. he can't fire jay powell or members of the open market committee. if you were reelected, he could have an impact on jay powell's renomination as the chair, but that term expense that extends past the first german presidency. he can rail about it but there is -- first term in his presidency. much will we see any kind of change

we will bring you our interview with esther george.ied using campaign fans -- campaign funds as hush money. it comes a day after prosecutors claim campaign officials were aware of the payment. this guilty plea contradicts -- these comments contradict the guilty plea from michael:. -- michael cohen. >> you have to understand, what he did, and it was taken out of campaign-finance, that is a bigger thing to come out of the campaign area they came from me and i tweeted about it. >> the resumption of china-u.s. says a trade war can be averted. the first face-to-face discussions continued since june. the next round will be in paris. brexit secretary will say the individual institutions will agree to sensible solutions. notices will explain how to prepare for a collapse in talks with the eu. we will bring you our interview with the trade secretary liam fox tomorrow. global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much area

do the of the fed governors agree with esther george, you think?es, the idea of a neutral it is hard to pin down. ,hey look at the 10-year yield and subtract inflation, and you can it an idea where they think it might be. but they are going to take the time ago gradually because they are afraid that they could upset the apple cart by tightening too fast. they are worried that if the fed moves to quickly, you will have the traditional result were the economy slows down because credit creation slows. it will be slow and gradual process. i think esther george is normally a hawk, and she is committed to four rate hikes this year, but how many would actually get will depend, as she said, on the data and whether other people are convinced. david: pretty much september is baked in. over 90% probability. i have a chart the talks about december and next march. the white line is about a 62% hike in december. esther george thinks there will be, but it is only a 60% -- only a 62% likelihood. it is 50/50 in march. some have said we may have to slow down here so

that was esther george. investors are waiting for jay powell's maiden speech at jackson hole later today. for more on this, our global economic and policy editor, kathleen hays, who spoke to esther george, joins us from wyoming. you, and great to see great work with the people you're speaking to win jackson hole, and of course, waiting to hear from jay powell at 10:00 a.m. new york time today. what can we expect from his speech? kathleen: first of all, let's put this in context. every year, the official theions, when the topic of symposium is actually presented, academic papers, all kinds of panelists, it kicks off with the fed chair, and over the years, this speech has been used occasionally as an opportunity to send a signal about policy during the financial crisis. ben bernanke had a couple signaledwhich something about quantitative easing. mario draghi, a couple years ago, he's getting ready to do more bond purchases and send a signal at jackson hole. bankers know the world is watching, the market is wat

will bring you our interview with esther george at 12:30 p.m. u.k. time.onald trump has denied using campaign funds as hush money for women who let past affairs with him. the comments came a day after federal prosecutors claim some campaign officials were aware of the payments. statement contradicts a guilty .lea by michael cohen he said the president directed him to make the payments and that they violated campaign-finance laws. the resumption of u.s.-china trade talks has boosted hopes that and all at trade war between the world's two largest economies can be averted. today the u.s. treasury undersecretary and chinese us commerce minister continued the first face-to-face trade discussions since june. that's even as the next round of tariffs on $16 billion of to effect. donald trump plans to punish carmakers to produce vehicles outside the u.s. and sell them to americans or hindering his administration's efforts to close the deal on a new nafta this month. bloomberg has learned that among the sticking point emerging during this week's discussion is a prop

we heard two rate hikes from esther george. economy is doing well and based on today, to more rate hikes this year could be appropriate. i am also mindful that is not a commitment. each meeting, you are a reassessed the data, what are you hearing from constituents and make the decision at that time. tom: joining us to begin this important day, michael mckee. know in you and i jackson hole at this lofty hour, the chill is in the air. is there a frost on the ground this morning? michael: a little bit of frost on the ground. wall street is getting ready to go on a bear hunt. is there -- chairman powell going to reiterate our backup what esther george is suggesting? that the fed will continue an aggressive rate rising model that goes for times this year. with the treasury positioned as they are coming you might see yields back up a little. or will he talked and 50,000 foot terms about what is going on? i've got to point out. i don't know if you have seen the piece on the bloomberg this morning. 20 years ago, james stock, the , did

however, esther george, the president of the kansas city fed, says she thought her first quarter in hert was extremely high, extremely well, because of the tariffs. >> particularly when you look, you saw soybeans shipped out at a higher rate and that boosted the gdp. that's not likely to continue. then again, you don't know what else will come into play in the current quarter that may sustain some of that growth. so i don't expect that will continue at the clip that it did in the second quarter, but it probably will be higher than we have seen last year. reporter: still, george told me she has upwardly revised her projections through the year from 2% to 3% regardless of what she's seeing or believes it could be possibly a slowdown in the third quarter because of that draw up in the second quarter. cheryl: great interview. thank you. all right. let's check on the markets as we head into the final hour of trading with liz claman. you have the dow down 60, some trade worries out there. that's kind of the leading indicator of what we are seeing in the market. s&p down 2 1/4, nasdaq up 8 poi

so it's not taking too much to tip this economy but to esther george's point, we have still an economyin some sense is roaring. initial jobless claims remain at 49-year low and that means the fed should continue on the rate hiking path which she said early yerl in the interview. >> katie, let's agree with what danielle said that we are seeing many so of the slowing here. how many tenths of a percentage point does a trade war shave off an economy growing nearly 4% right now. >> it could shave as much as 100 basis points. >> or a full% cut it by 25%. >> but it's distinguish important to distinguish between the economy and stocks and the impact on the stock market could be more acute perhaps than on the u.s. economy, both direct and indirect impacts on companies. we know we have an s&p 50 oh getting over 40% of revenue from overseas the direct impact of a trade war with china would be. >> and yet you have kept your allocations very strongly in u.s. stocks. >> we have, tyler. and our perspective is that at the end of the day there will be -- there will be an agreement. there is sort of a m

edward lawrence will be interviewing esther george. 7:00 a.m. eastern time. on jackson hole gets underway today. it sounds wonky but it's really a good sign. it's a fascinating group. an exclusive interview with fox news last night. one of the jurors from paul manafort trial. it prevented the special counsel from winning a conviction against paul manafort on all 18 counts of bank and tax fraud. we all tried to convince her to look at the paper trail. we laid out in front of her. again and again. and that's the way the jury worked. and present trumpets weeding earlier this morning no collision. definitely an early morning treat -- tweet for the president. white house press press secretary sarah sanders tried to put in much distance between the president and to his former allies. paul manafort and michael cohen. the felony charges on bank and tax fraud has nothing to do with the president in the white house or his campaign. sanders pushing back. after he pleaded guilty. with the felony campaign finance charges. there are no charges against them. just because of

. -- don't miss her interview with esther george.ack with the asia economist from ing, robert carnell. what do you think of the feds minutes and what do they tell us that his new? -- is new? robert: as usual, not very much new. they will beaid, hiking in september. that we expect it, so did everyone else. the one thing i thought was beggarly interesting was the talk about trying to find the right time, when policy was no longer accommodative. i think the market is already there. i think there will be a point for cause and reflection -- pause and reflection. there will be a point they can slow things down a bit. manus: i will bring a chart up from our gtv library. seeks --ing the course core pce, showing that we are pretty much at neutral now or near neutral. that, ande idea from when you look at financial conditions at the same time, we see financial conditions improving and against this background of rising interest rates, as well. do they really need to go? robert: not really. i mean, 25 here or there, they don't really do anything

also walking with them was esther george, the president of the kansas city george -- kansas city fed.l was in a suit and tie, which is a little bit out of costume. you can see john williams wearing no tie. right, he isre happy that it is over with, that he did not cause any waves. vonnie: it is the kansas city fed as the symposium that posts this every year -- hosts this every year. typically because it is the only thing that happens federal reserve wise in the summer, it can be a venue for news breaking or a shift in policy or something like that, but jay powell clearly trying to keep things pretty gradual and unchanged. ,e saw a reaction in the curve a slight flattening and we are under 20 basis points again. michael: a couple of the fed the bank presidents we talked to say it is worth watching that they are not taking it is a strong signal because there are other things influencing the long end of the curve. the fed pushes short rates up and the rates rise. has been aing combination of a search for safe assets by investors overseas and a feeling that long-term process free -- prosp

central bank, starting with the kansas city fed president, esther george. e the economy is doing well, and based on what i see today, i think two more rate hikes could be appropriate, but i am mindful that at each meeting you have to recess and understand what are you seeing in the data, what are you hearing from your constituents, and make the decision at that time so hopefully everything holds together. >> would you say the committee is coalesced around that view? is that a strong consensus? esther: if you look at the dot plot, which the committee puts out, the minutes, the statement, it would suggest there is a degree of consensus around the state of the economy, but within that committee, you will get differences on how many rate hikes are appropriate. >> you were worried about the pace of growth and inflation picking up concern that fed policy might have to move faster. is that what you are expressing now, or do you think this will have to pick up more in 2019? esther: based on what we see today i don't think the , performance of the economy and the way

we are speaking to esther george, we will get to her later. the dollar is rallying for the first time in six days. also looking at the rand in south africa. this is after a president trump tweet makes people nervous after sanctions he may or may not impose. the budget airline has reached a agreement with pilots for strikes. here, we bring you our interview with the kansas city fed president esther george at 12:30 p.m. u.k. time. let's get to bloomberg first word news. >> donald trump has denied using campaign funds as hush money for women who alleged affairs. day after federal prosecutors claim some officials were aware of the payments. his payment contradicts a guilty played by michael:. --: -- cohen. >> later on, i knew. understand, what he did, they were taken out of campaign-finance. they didn't come out of the campaign. they came from me, i tweeted about it. >> strong evidence, but let's agree that it is strong that knew thatmp the -- michael cohen would advance money on his behalf. and that it has a political purpose to its. the resumpti

that is just under what kansas city fed president esther george said.ves the yearly projections will be about 3%. so clearly they do say that the growth in the economy going forward. cheryl? cheryl: we've seen the numbers come through with the gdp report. edward, thank you very much. we appreciate it. edward lawrence live for us in jackson hole. >>> we want to bring in jay plosky, and brandywine global portfolio manager jack. when powell was saying that speech where i get my mission accomplished growth healthy levels of job creation and fiscal stimulus arriving, those good reason to expect all this is going to continue. pat on the back. >> yeah. cheryl: what do you -- >> i agree actually. i think it's a little bit of the goldilocks sort of scenario because yeah, we have growth. what makes the cycle different, it is not associated with a lot of inflation and the thing i liked about powell with his speech they're looking at a qualitative aspect about setting monetary policy not just looking at where inflation is today, looking at secular dis disinflationa

eastern time with interview with kansas city fed chief esther george. you don't want to miss that. >>> the other big story, we expect to hear from the white house any minute now. we got news we're getting a briefing. this shoulding interesting. the markets largely shrugged off political drama in d.c. now you have democrats talking impeachment. they will use that through the midterms if they can. is the bull market at risk with all of this? we'll compact. we're taking the briefing live when it happens. with tripadvisor, finding your perfect hotel at the lowest price... is as easy as dates, deals, done! simply enter your destination and dates... and see all the hotels for your stay! tripadvisor searches over 200 booking sites... to show you the lowest prices... so you can get the best deal on the right hotel for you. dates, deals, done! tripadvisor. visit tripadvisor.com designed to save you money. wireless network even when you've got serious binging to do. wherever your phone takes you, your wireless bill is about to cost a whole lot less. use less data

forward, or at least hints to their plan going forward and kansas city federal reserve president esther george says she sees no reason to change the plan of gradual rate hikes going forward. she is voting member of the federal open market committee this year. she will watch the trade dispute to see if it affects numbers but she only sees growth. >> my forecast for the third quarter, i don't know where the numbers come out but we may see the range of 3% as opposed to my last forecast looking at the 2% range port for the that comes with an asterisk, because she doesn't know and see what other countries will do to step up retaliation tariffs against our companies. >> i do hear from some of our businesses in the region that say i'm going to pause on some projects until i i see. others will tell you this hasn't affected me or i'm passing through higher costs as a result of that. you're getting varying reactions. that makes it difficult to precisely say this means to the economy going forward. reporter: we may hear more of from speech of federal reserve chairman jerome powell. we will lay out he see

edward lawrence will interview esth esther george. >>> let's check the money. the dow is down 88 points. nicole petallides is on the floor of the new york stock exchange with the latest. nicole: an exciting day because we made history, the longest bull market run ever. i will explain that in a minute. take a look at the markets today. mixed bag here with the russell that hit another all-time high, its 25th of this year and second straight record close. the dow finished down 89 points. we did see nike and american express, all-time highs. but back to that long bull run. since 2009, march, you can see how the dow, nasdaq and s&p performed. s&p up more than 320%. the bull run winners included amazon, netflix, google, apple, microsoft. netflix up over 6,000%. people are feeling optimistic around here. back to you. john: thank you, as always. president trump adding new sanctions on russia as facebook shuts over 600 misinformation accounts linked to russia and iran. >>> and new fallout for president trump's former personal attorney michael cohen, now being subpoenaed

on say we will hike at the next meeting and that the end of the year, but he can emphasize as esther georgemy looks inflation is near target and more rate hikes would be appropriate. that would not be much of a market mover. it would be the opposite. if the signals any kind of things are ok for now for puts emphasis on the trade war or currency volatility or the potential damage that a strong dollar could do to u.s. exports and u.s. growth it could rattle the market. in the sense of where the fed should go we spoke earlier today with jacob frankel who is the chairman of jpmorgan chase international. he is also the former head of the bank of israel. he has been in the bank for 30 years. he think there should be hiking rates and their -- they are on the right path. let's do it jacobson. less -- let's hear what jacob said. >> i think this is a much more serious subject then -- then the interest rate. >> another topic i think many people do not expect jay powell to say anything specifically about emerging-market volatility is he could perhaps mentioned something about global financial markets o

. >> here's what else esther george said about the economy, she sees 3% this year, but she doesn't think said that she does not feel the need for the fed to go above that and a fed rate cut -- one other we call it mind the gap, and that's the divergence between the main central banks take a look at the economies of the bank of japan and europe inflation is lower in japan. gdp is lower in japan. but the u.re's the u.s. you cane at 2% on the u.s. screen, and japan and europe, all the way over to the left there, u.s. of course going higher, the bank of japan, the ecb, who knows when it will go higher. so it will be central bankers sitting shoulder to shoulder at this meeting one will have a 200 basis rate and rising and one will have a negative basis rate not going anywhere soon. and as you ponder every day, is how much longer this divergence can persist. >> that's why it's been so crazy in the area of currencies i'm wondering what the central bank chairman would say. the president has complatalked about the u.s. dollar. is this a result of fiscal policies after this massive stimulus we get

with esther george was not offended the comments. >> expressions angst is not unusual with this administrationwe know higher rates do caused a justment in the economy. what is important for the public to remember, congress understood this tension might exist between central bank that was responsible for the money supply and those that have other angles in the economy. and so they put important firewalls in place, that would allow an institution like the fed to keep its focus on the public interest in the long run nature of the economy and that's what we're doing. that is what i continue to do. >> so you think that firewall is effective then? >> i think it is effective. >> and necessary. >> and i think over time it proved effective. it is absolutely necessary. we know from experiences in other countries where that independence is compromised, it has bad out comes for the economy. reporter: in that interview she also expected what we expect to hear from chairman powell. that is, that the economy is doing well. we'll continue with the gradual rate hikes, watching terror back and forth to see if i

maria: alex sÁnchez, the president of the kansas city federal reserve will be here, esther george, do that. facing justice, disturbing details from mexican national. two felons escaped from jail injuries officers in the process, all the details right after the break alerts -- wouldn't you like one from the market when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today. stay at la quinta. where we're changing with stylish make-overs. then at your next meeting, set your seat height to its maximum level. bravo, tall meeting man. start winning today. book now at lq.com metastatic breast cancer is relentless, but i'm relentless too. mbc doesn't take a day off, and neither will i. and i treat my mbc with new everyday verzenio- the only one of its kind that can be taken every day. in fact, verzenio is a cdk4 & 6 inhibitor for postmenopausal women with hr+, her2- mbc, approved, with hormonal therapy, as an everyday treatment for a relentless disease. ve

how to keep it there, inflation is the target for fed president the kansas city fed president esther georgeer next year of the fomc. >> i look carefully at inflation expectation watching, not only the quarter quarter to cater movement in price level when we make our forecasts, but looking at how inflationing expectations are responding to that and so far, those are remaining pretty well anchored so i don't see a reason right now. >> analysts are also looking at the federal reserve, to have comments about unwinding the balance sheet that they have and the impact of that emerging markets around the world i talked to bankers from bank of korea bank of check republic switzerland concerned about pace at which frar will inroll their balance sheet roll off some mortgage-backed securities we are going to talk about all of this with the atlanta fed president literally a today currently a voting member of the fomc. >> we will be watching thank you so much, coming up hurricane lane hits hawaii latest details as powerful storm lashes the state with torrential rains land splooidz. >> former macy's's exe

esther george speaks to steve liesman at 7:30 a.m.ow on "squawk box," we'll hear from james bullard, loretta mester, stay tuned you're watching "squawk box. >>> time for the executive edge. we'll start with bitcoin news. the u.s. securities and exchange commission rejected applications for nine bitcoin-based etfs. the proposed funds were filed by pro shares, direct shares. the s.e.c. expressed concern about fraud and manipulation of the bitcoin markets. bitcoin is in the mid 6,000. 6,417 today. up a little. >>> also keep an eye on the australian dollar. it's been under pressure as additional pressure mounts on the australian prime minister to step down. this comes after three of malcolm turnbull's top cabinet members resigned and threw their support behind his main rival. we'll keep an eye on this developing story and bring you more as we get it. >>> when we return, summer vacation season is drawing to a close. if you are looking for trip ideas for labor day we have you covered. >>> right now as we head to break, a quick check of what

he was an aide to george washington, and he was president of the pennsylvania assembly. esther was very aware of the problems that plagued the continental army, the shortage of funds, the lack of supplies, washington's constant fear that .he army would collapse if you read anything about this, you know that washington did prevail against great odds in getting this army to prevail, because the congress was always short on money, and he was always begging congress to send him more. thought, it's not sufficient for women to sit on the sidelines. she wanted women to take more direct action. the first thing she did was wherethis wonderful essay it was a call to action. she wrote, born from liberty, disdaining to bear the irons of a tyrannical government, we associate ourselves to the grander of those sovereigns, cherished and revered, who have splendor so much the scepter of the greatest state. she is identifying women with the greatest female leaders of the past. you read it, what imagery did you notice she used? as did she talk about leaders that american women could emulate? anyb