mike mckee, thank you for that conversation with esther george. i wanted to do a little bit more of a data check here. yields are higher this morning. that is important, even though the tenure tips is stable. on policy amid this republican convention, libby cantrill will join us from pimco. that is a timely conversation. on radio, on television, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. a warning from the national hurricane center. it now says hurricane laura will rapidly strengthen to a category four storm, with winds of at least 130 miles an hour. the storm is expected to make landfall late today or early tomorrow. it has already disrupted oil and natural gas operations. on the second night of the republican national convention, speakers tried to humanize president trump. first lady melania trump spoke from the rose garden. to usemp: i don't want this precious time attacking the other side because as we saw last week, that talk only serves to divide the country further. husband'swe need my leadership now more than ev

it is her party, esther george in jackson hole, the kansas city fed has territory over wyoming. it always has been about the kansas city fed. really, really valuable conference. mckee george with michael and the 7:00 hour. this is "bloomberg." ♪

the kansas city president esther george spoke with michael mckee. i will offer you from my perspective this has been a useful process, process that really asks of ourselves to look at what we have learned over the past decade, to try to think about how the economy may have changed, and think about how we communicate to the public. the process in and of itself has been a useful one, and i will leave to the chairman to talk. michael: you have been considered an inflation hawk. where are you on average inflation targeting? is to bee: my focus true to our price stability target, that our 2% really has to represent what is happening in the real economy. so as we think about ways to better communicate to the public , i never thought of 2% as a ceiling, but to really stay focused on what anchors inflation expectations in the economy. standpoint,nication i think we will be talking about the kinds of things that help us do a better job of achieving our objectives. michael: wall street is betting, or many people are betting that the fed will change its forwar

yousef: that was the kansas city fed president esther george speaking earlier.iss our interview this afternoon with the saint louis fed president. ♪ yousef: you're watching "bloomberg surveillance." i am yousef gamal el-din in dubai. let's get you the business flash with laura wright. >> jet in jamaica rolls-royce has suffered a record half-year loss. it posted a pretax loss of $7 billion after the coronavirus grounded jets all of the world. the ceo says 4000 jobs have been cut so far and a total of 9000 may end up being eliminated. salesforce is moving to streamline its business. it tells bloomberg it plans to cut 1000 jobs, including sales roles, as a support software company reported record quarterly revenue and forecast further gains. salesforce says it is reallocating resources to petition for further growth. this airport is planning a restructuring that can see the loss of another 600 jobs, a quarter of the remaining workforce. it comes after some of its biggest customers abandoned there.ons it has already scrapped more than 800 posts. that is the bloomber

edward lawrence with esther george.ly touting president trump's successes at the rnc last night, north carolina congressional candidate madison cawthorn will weigh in next, he's here with me live. don't miss it. stylish scouts, girl scouts reveal redesigned uniforms for the first time in decades. wait until you see these. we're taking a look straight ahead. you're watching "mornings with maria," live on fox business, on king's hawaiian bread! yum! king's hawaiian. riaccelerate your investments to be is or pull back?een. change the plan or stay the course? that's why northern trust is here. with specialized expertise... a history of success through every economic climate... and proven strategies rooted in data and analytics. giving you more control. clarity. and confidence. for now and whatever's next northern trust wealth management. find your get-up-and-go. find pants that aren't sweats. find your friends. find your sense of wander. find the world is new, again. at chevy we'd like to take you there. now during the chev

yesterday we talked to esther george, one of the biggest inflation the hawks, and she said she has noem with the idea of inflation running higher during a period of catch up for the fed. if she is on board, probably everybody is. it becomes a question of how you frame it. how far above the 2% level do you let it go and for how long before you start to worry inflation will get out of control and you have to take some sort of action? they've discovered over the past ,ear inflation will stay down even as the unemployment rate goes way below what they thought was the natural rate, the rate that would start pushing higher. tom: is this a regime change? is that what we are talking about, a regime change of theory? michael: it is a regime change of theory, it is not a change in the bullard sense because bullard is talking about economic conditions. the regime has changed in the sense that economic conditions are more terrible. it does not changes policymaking. we will talk with him later today and get his thoughts on this. i saved that right into your conversation. thank you. great anticipat

before the event, we caught up fed the kansas city president, esther george.ending on how the economy unfolds, watching to see how jobs recover will be a very important component of this, so in the months ahead, i think watching the data, watching to see what sectors respond, and i think, most important, we are really focused on things of what is the endgame for this virus. until we know that, that is really fundamental to how the economy unfolds, so beyond that is really just speculating and thinking about various scenarios that could affect our outlook. one more on inflation, and that is all of the stimulus the fed has put into the market is contributed to asset price inflation. do you have any worries that a bubble might be forming? i think you know that one of the things i have long paid attention to is financial stability and whether or not in balances could be building, and that is the nature of monetary policy stimulus. borrowing.he cost of it can create incentives for reaching for yields. the focusurse, today, is different, but i think as we watch how

we spoke to esther george about why she said it is premature to judge if the economy needs or supportalso getting her thoughts about event.tual nature of the >> i will just offer you from my perspective that this has been, i think, a useful process. been a process to ask of ourselves what we have learned the past decades, to try to think about how the economy may have changed and more importantly, to think about how we communicate to the public. the process and in of itself i think has been a useful one and i will lead to the chairman to talk about what we have learned from that. anyou have been considered inflation hawk. where are you on this idea of average inflation targets? be true to as to price stability mandate, that our 2% target really has to represent what is happening in the real economy, so as we think about ways to better communicate to the public, i've never thought of 2% as a ceiling, we should really stay focused on what anchors inflation expectations in the economy. from a communication standpoint, i think we will be talking about the kinds of things that help us to d

. >> let's finish with that question, because we just heard esther george, the kansas city fed presidentaying she is on board with the idea of instead of 2%, better start hiking rates . let it go above 2%. are you on board with that, thomas hoenig? >> i can't interpret her comments. from my perspective, i have said to exercisely get it is onlyct 1.8%. those differences in terms of what it means for the long run economic growth of the economy are not the critical point, as people would like to believe. it is the policy you are following that will have a much more dramatic effect over the long run. haveour policies going to affect on resources in the economy? are they going to spur an acceleration at some in the future? create furthero miss allocations in terms of distribution of income? those are the questions the central bank and policymakers have to pay attention to. downer the fed has let you by 1.8% inflation is not important. >> let's follow that train of thought because we were talking ahead of the interview and you said i'm on board. you do what you have to do. the fed with your em

anna: kansas city fed president esther george, speaking to bloomberg ahead of her banks and will jacksonole -- bank's annual jackson hole symposium. no doubt the content will be compelling. let's get to richard lacaille from state street. he is still with us. we were just hearing about the economy.in the u.s. does it have momentum, do you think? richard: we are past the rapid stage, now we are at a shallow slope but the slope is still continuing upward. data recentlyood from durable goods, consumer credit cards. it has momentum but it is slowing. i think it will continue until the end of the year at this pace. of a statement do you think we will get from jay powell when he speaks later today? a focus on the way they are going to change the inflation targeting for the central bank, is that going to be the focus for you? are you looking for in around average inflation targeting? richard: in normal times, we would be looking at whether they raise the inflation target or soft in the ceiling, so to speak, but right now we are focused at what can be done today. we need reassurance that they wi

michael mckee with that esther george interview in the last hour, really setting up the virtual conference in the speech tomorrow by chairman powell. really quickly before we get to dean curnutt, what are you looking at this morning? lisa: i'm looking at bond yields, trying to understand how much inflation expectations ticking up says ahead of the jackson hole conference. is this a bet that they are going to be successful in igniting inflation? if that is the case, where is it going to come from? is it just printing money? tom: dean curnutt is at macro risk advisors. he does really sophisticated, fancy stuff around capturing volatility, and what you do is you traded. you buy volatility or you sell volatility, and the trademark -- and the benchmark for that is the vix that we quote. curnutt, the vix right now 22 just int's broken celebration of you being with us. where should the vix be right now? what is your guess on the direction of the vix relative to the market? dean: well, that is a great question, and i think there's a couple of ways to answer it. the simplest way is just to look at

name is esther george, president of the kansas city fed. i'm pleased to be joined by federal reserve chairman jay powell as well as many of my colleagues from the federal reserve and by other central bankers, academics, public and private sector economists and members of the news media. foras been our custom nearly four decades to welcome you to beautiful jackson hole, wyoming, part of the region served by the kansas city fed. returning forward to to that setting next year. format, instead of expressing my gratitude to those who travel around the globe to attend the symposium while managing jet lag, i will offer my appreciation to those attempting to manage local time zone where the current time now ranges from 6:00 a.m. thursday to 1:00 a.m. friday. this year has been an extraordinary one for monetary policy and central banking. many of the issues that we've talked about for some time including the low level of interest rates, the slow pace of growth, the effects of heightened uncertainty and how to effectively communicate monetary policy

later today, kansas city fed president esther george speaks to bloomberg 7:00 a.m. in new york, 12:00 p.m. in london. all of that in the run-up to jackson hole. will we get the same beautiful backdrops we normally get of those interviews that we bring to you from jackson hole? we will have full coverage. this is "bloomberg." ♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. we're are looking at a turning up, sbx flat this morning. we will see where we are in a few hours. right now it is simple to say, potential football coach at his north carolina state, but far more, dennis gartman is the mother of all gold calls over the last 20 years. for a while he was a piÑata. gold was not working out. he said own gold in yen and euro and it is been a gartman moonshot, one of the great successful traits of a generation. what are you doing with gold right now, dennis gartman? goldstead of being long on in yen, i am not long in u.s. dollar terms. as i've said for years, there are times when i want us to be bullish and times when i want us to be bears with gold. i'm not a gold bug.

it is her party, esther george in jackson hole, the kansas city fed has territory over wyoming. has been about the kansas city fed. really, really valuable conference. mckee george with michael and the 7:00 hour. this is "bloomberg." ♪ >> donald will not rest until he has said all he can to take care of everyone impacted by this terrible pandemic. leee has ended the nicholas unfair trade agreement with china that punched a hole in our economy -- ridiculously unfair trade agreement with china that punched a hole in our economy. >> right now our economic health is coming back with emergency spending and tax cuts. americans are going back to work. looking at, more tax cuts and regulatory rollback will be in store. >> i don't use this precious time attacking the other side. because as we saw last week, that kind of talk only serves to divide the country further. i believe we need my husband's leadership now more than ever in order to bring us back once again to the greatest economy in the strongest country ever known. tom: a vision of day two of the republican convention. it continu

my name is arthur george -- esther george, and i'm pleased to be joined by chairman jay powell, as well as many of my colleagues from the federal reserve, and by other cera

kansas city federal reserve president esther george speaking on the trajectory of interest rates ahead of fed chairman jerome powell's highly anticipated virtual speech tomorrow. it's going to be part of the central bank's annual jackson hole, wyoming conference which, yes, will be by zoom. now, as the federal reserve keeps rates at or near zero, zero to .25%, the stimulus, you could definitely argue, is doing its job for the stock market. the nasdaq, s&p 500 and now the mfci all country world index reaching record highs, despite the pandemic and despite the recession that that pandemic has triggered. along the way, pandemic winners, here's the sector, right, housing on fire. auto sector, just doing incredibly well. we've got some of the stocks moving lower right now, but sporting goods, you saw dick's sporting goods, unbelievable numbers coming out. but here are the losers. commercial real estate, airlines, this all makes sense because you know, they can't open any of their malls but airlines, of course, very few people are flying and restaurant chains. so does free money plus market

jay powell in the second part of this interview with the virtual host kansas city fed president esther george asking her if she believes the fed promised to stay too low for too long. >> i think even at the point that we resolve the health issue that is affecting the economy today, what we can't get to know until the dust settles is what has been the impact to the economy longer term. what will be the rate of growth. what will be the confidence that comes back from households and businesses so i think there's a lot yet for us to learn in terms of how we think about calibrating policy in the months ahead and that, of course, will be where we focus at each of our meetings. >> reporter: the kansas city fed is a very diverse district it has agriculture, tech, aerospace and energy tell us how those industries are faring during this epidemic. >> i think you see the impacts nationwide playing out here in our region in aerospace we know that because the demand for travel has plummeted, that sector is going adversely affected in the ag sector which is so important to this region, of course, farm incom

especially noted that the young lady who is the chairman of the kansas city federal reserve bank, esther georgehe most hawkish of the members, was on track with this also. so we're going to sponsor a stronger inflation, mr. powell will use all the tools available to him. up went gold. stuart: the price of gold has gone up during the pandemic and over the last couple of years, but you wouldn't make as much money in gold as you would have made if you got into the big tech stocks. >> no question. stuart: are you -- [inaudible] >> i do not understand high-tech. i will never understand tesla, for example, selling more than the value of gm, ford, fiat chrysler combined. that makes no sense to me. if other people are making money, i wish them well, i hope it continues in their favor, but it will continue to move higher without me, and if it moves lower, it will do so without me also. i'm not old enough -- i'm not young enough, i guess i should say, nor high-tech specialty enough to understand what's going on there. god bless 'em, i hope they do well. stuart: yeah, well, i don't understand technology,

before george gallup and everyone else is going to events survey research in the 19 thirties and forties. we see this and popular history. frederick allen only esther there was a popular historian in the 1920s. the american woman when the suffrage in 1920. she seemed, it is true, to be very little interested and what she had -- i think i just skipped. no, i did not. so, what do we actually know? in some ways, we can kind of excuse oppose observers of the 1920s. they did not have much to go on. with this graph is going to show you is overtime, from 1920 to 1936, those five elections, the turnout rates of men involved in gold and women in purple. as you can see, in the first elections after women won the right to vote, there is quite a gap. it's about 30 something points between the turnout of men, which in 1920 is almost 70% of men, turning out to vote. this is from a sample of ten states that i will show you in just one minute. about a third of women in that first election after the 19th amendment are turning out to vote. in some sense, it looks like there is some truth to this story, that women, most women did not actually choose to use that new r