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Aug 26, 2022
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we also spoke to the kansas city fed president esther george.s they will have to take interest rates above 4% at a time as current rates are not weighing on the economy. >> the chairman will deliver the opening remarks. i haven't previewed his remarks so i cannot tell you what is in there. but i will tell you from my own perspective, it is important we are clear in our communication about the destination we are headed, and that destination is important. we have to get interest rates higher to slow down demand and bring patient back to our target reverse some period of time here. >> let me ask you in particular, are you willing to keep hiking rates? if you see the economy slipping towards what could be a recession, could you stand up half an for inflation is still too high? >> we have to, by mandate, bring that inflation down. right now, we have an unemployment rate that is low. by ringing demands down, we should see the labor demand move up a bit. we see early signed -- signs of that demand moving off, but you are not seeing the inflation data f
we also spoke to the kansas city fed president esther george.s they will have to take interest rates above 4% at a time as current rates are not weighing on the economy. >> the chairman will deliver the opening remarks. i haven't previewed his remarks so i cannot tell you what is in there. but i will tell you from my own perspective, it is important we are clear in our communication about the destination we are headed, and that destination is important. we have to get interest rates...
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Aug 25, 2022
08/22
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kriti: that was esther george at jackson hole.low-up on that conversation, joining us from the event is a michael mckee. i want to follow up on one of the key question you asked about unemployment. i cute -- i think you asked her how much unemployment is too much? this is only the backdrop of a place where a lot of people are saying the phillips curve does not apply. it feels like it does. push ahead to next week when we get payrolls. what are people at jackson hole expecting when it comes to the labor market? mike: we look at this report and the feeling is it is going to be very little different from the july numbers, but perhaps with a lower job creation figure. unemployment not expected to go up. if it does, it will rise slowly. how far? it was a bit of an unfair question to esther george, because no fed official is going to say it does not matter if people lose their jobs, but we art below 3.5%. we are below what people think of is the natural rate of an ointment -- unemployment, they think it is somewhere between 41% to 4.5%.
kriti: that was esther george at jackson hole.low-up on that conversation, joining us from the event is a michael mckee. i want to follow up on one of the key question you asked about unemployment. i cute -- i think you asked her how much unemployment is too much? this is only the backdrop of a place where a lot of people are saying the phillips curve does not apply. it feels like it does. push ahead to next week when we get payrolls. what are people at jackson hole expecting when it comes to...
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Aug 26, 2022
08/22
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esther george is readying the bond market for 4% rates at a glide path. we will hear more from esther george and kathleen hays from jackson hole in just a moment. a quick snapshot of risk. stocks are facing the prospect of 4%. reasons to be bullish. higher wages is not good news for the equities story and we are leaning far too much on cpi. the reasons to be bullish are than a bit thin. dax gone with a rally of .4%. have a look at the bond markets. we are focused on 50, 75 basis points, but you have a yield curve which has bounced from the -50 to 73 and this is significant. this suggests that perhaps the worst has passed in the bond market. the dollar remains resilient. 18% overvalued on a relative basis, relative effective exchange basis. the past 10 years. is the dollar exhausted and something that may come into play? what will jay powell communicate to the market? we are going to the higher ground and we are going to hang out there for a while. kathleen hays is with me from jackson hole. i love that line. steve stitching ski is tracking the energy stor
esther george is readying the bond market for 4% rates at a glide path. we will hear more from esther george and kathleen hays from jackson hole in just a moment. a quick snapshot of risk. stocks are facing the prospect of 4%. reasons to be bullish. higher wages is not good news for the equities story and we are leaning far too much on cpi. the reasons to be bullish are than a bit thin. dax gone with a rally of .4%. have a look at the bond markets. we are focused on 50, 75 basis points, but you...
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Aug 26, 2022
08/22
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one word is unfazed, the speakers we have heard the last 12 hours or so, esther george talking about what she sees if rates will be above 4%, saying around that three quarters to 4%, he said he liked frontloading. they are on the fence in terms of 50 and 75. he said, basically do not blink jay powell because they were asleep at the wheel. >> the next meeting will be september 21, will it be three quarters of 1% as what we had last time in the time before or will be in amelioration? he is clearly in the 75 basis point cap. esther george had a call for how high interest rates may have to top out at. >> we have more room to go. we would bring those rates down quickly. i have seen that in the forecasting, seems a bit more -- remarkable to me. we will have to hold. >> 4%? >> it could be well over 4% to do not think it is out of the question. we will not know that until you watch the data signs. >> about 125 to 150 basis points. this blue square you see on your screen this is where we are, that is the longer-term projections. is the terminal rate higher than that? that is because -- that i
one word is unfazed, the speakers we have heard the last 12 hours or so, esther george talking about what she sees if rates will be above 4%, saying around that three quarters to 4%, he said he liked frontloading. they are on the fence in terms of 50 and 75. he said, basically do not blink jay powell because they were asleep at the wheel. >> the next meeting will be september 21, will it be three quarters of 1% as what we had last time in the time before or will be in amelioration? he is...
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Aug 25, 2022
08/22
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esther george and raphael bostick signaling. >> peloton share
esther george and raphael bostick signaling. >> peloton share
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Aug 25, 2022
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. >> here at jackson hole, kansas city's fed president, esther george is underlined the importance ofar communication in the battle against inflation. here is what she told us. >> the chairman will begin -- will deliver the opening remarks. i can't tell you what is in there. i will tell you from my own perspective that it is very important that we are clear in our communication about the destination we are headed. i think that destination is important. we have to get interest rates higher, slow down demand and bring inflation back to our target over some time. >> are you willing to keep hiking rates if you see an employment rising? are you willing to stay on that path if inflation is still too high? >> i think we have to buy mandate bring that inflation right down. the unemployment rate is running low. i think what most people believe is a natural rate of unemployment. by bringing demand down, they should begin to see the labor market loosen up a bit. i think we are seeing early signs of that consumption, some of that demand leveling off but you are not seeing the inflation data yet.
. >> here at jackson hole, kansas city's fed president, esther george is underlined the importance ofar communication in the battle against inflation. here is what she told us. >> the chairman will begin -- will deliver the opening remarks. i can't tell you what is in there. i will tell you from my own perspective that it is very important that we are clear in our communication about the destination we are headed. i think that destination is important. we have to get interest rates...
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Aug 25, 2022
08/22
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esther george and raphael bostick signaling. >> peloton shares reported a big loss, declining revenue as it cycles through its turnaround plan >> ha-ha funny. >> on the move quarterly results as carl said, salesforce, nvidia, snowflake, a number of retailers as well. >> let's begin with the tech earnings salesforce down in the premarket after trimming their full-year guidance, overshadowing the quarterly beat and the company's first-ever share buyback program. marc benioff talked to jim abou it >> this is a more measured economic environment everyone is trying to assess what's going on, how they position themselves or this new economy. it's a new day for many companies. when you look out at all these businesses, yes, they're all doing digital transformation it's still everyone's number-one priority every digital transformation is beginning and ending with the customer >> the phrase measured buying environment came up from bret sailor and from marc. >> yes i think that marc missed it. i think in the previous call he had a vision that this could occur. he understood and was talking to e
esther george and raphael bostick signaling. >> peloton shares reported a big loss, declining revenue as it cycles through its turnaround plan >> ha-ha funny. >> on the move quarterly results as carl said, salesforce, nvidia, snowflake, a number of retailers as well. >> let's begin with the tech earnings salesforce down in the premarket after trimming their full-year guidance, overshadowing the quarterly beat and the company's first-ever share buyback program. marc...
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Aug 26, 2022
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haidi: kansas city fed president esther george. do stay with us.n hole including the crucial speech from fed chair jay powell happening at 10:00 a.m. friday if you are watching in hong kong. the chinese market today, grappling with covid restrictions and a property slump. next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ haidi: we are looking ahead to the open of chinese markets on the friday session in the next hour and wrapping up a frantic week on the earnings front. let's go to markets coanchor david ingles, who joins us from hong kong. anything specific that is piquing your interest? david: the energy plays. we have some of the big names, petrochina reporting and that is where you are seeing not just earnings beats, but substantial growth in revenues and bottom lines. when you look at sic, which is half industrial, half consumer, you are getting a little bit weakness. when you look at what is happening today, an indication that perhaps the trend in recent days, this lift, earnings coming out today, this is to give you a sense of this week. i think we have seen 200
haidi: kansas city fed president esther george. do stay with us.n hole including the crucial speech from fed chair jay powell happening at 10:00 a.m. friday if you are watching in hong kong. the chinese market today, grappling with covid restrictions and a property slump. next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ haidi: we are looking ahead to the open of chinese markets on the friday session in the next hour and wrapping up a frantic week on the earnings front. let's go to markets coanchor david...
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Aug 19, 2022
08/22
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alix: you have esther george saying the s&p has already done a lot on raising rates., you have an 8% fed funds rate. that is aggressive. i'm wondering how you get there and what jay powell has to do next week to start moving the market in a different direction? dominique: inflation is high. just look at the wage against inflation and once you have that very difficult to bring down inflation. i think the fed modality is flawed. i think inflation expectation is stable. the fed keeps reminding us inflation expectations are stable. look at inflation. it is soaring. it is only a matter of time. further, historically, in order to bring down inflation, the fed has had to bring the fed funds rate close to the 10 year. basically, the difference of inflation long-term. depending how you compute it, 7%-8%. guy: if we are going to get to 8%, jay powell has to be aggressive next friday. do you think he will be? dominique: more likely to get to 8% if he is not aggressive. right now, the fed is falling behind the curve. the more they fall behind, the more you have to hike. next year
alix: you have esther george saying the s&p has already done a lot on raising rates., you have an 8% fed funds rate. that is aggressive. i'm wondering how you get there and what jay powell has to do next week to start moving the market in a different direction? dominique: inflation is high. just look at the wage against inflation and once you have that very difficult to bring down inflation. i think the fed modality is flawed. i think inflation expectation is stable. the fed keeps reminding...
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Aug 15, 2022
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and investors look to this week's fed minutes, including esther george and neel kashkari. what insights they will include into whether the fomc goes big on rate hikes next month or not. the rates on futures are holding soft, getting 0.3%. this may be due to what we are compared to seeing on the u.s., but also counterintuitive to what some of the stocks in asia did after that surprise interest rates cut from the pboc. it is clear that the investors are trying to maneuver that disappointing data print out of china, that surprise interest-rate cuts means that there were some economic troubles and that filters the rent has an impact on global growth worldwide. jackson hole brought the next catalyst for some of the stocks in the u.s., but also treasuries. if you look at the ftse, getting some 0.3%. -- gaining some 0.3%. iron ore under pressure. gas pretty much under changed -- unchanged. we look at the rhine river and the global water level of that. the problem is also economically, if you have a barge or some of the ships that have to go through the rhine river, you need to pu
and investors look to this week's fed minutes, including esther george and neel kashkari. what insights they will include into whether the fomc goes big on rate hikes next month or not. the rates on futures are holding soft, getting 0.3%. this may be due to what we are compared to seeing on the u.s., but also counterintuitive to what some of the stocks in asia did after that surprise interest rates cut from the pboc. it is clear that the investors are trying to maneuver that disappointing data...
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Aug 19, 2022
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we have got esther george with reluctance around a supersized hike.bullard are calling for a three-quarter-basis-point move. also keeping an eye on the chip stocks in korea, as well as earnings coming through from australia. another headwind is certainly what is going on in china's property markets. we are continuing to see the biggest property companies trading at a steep discount. surprising because of the macro issues there, including the continued reliance on covid zero policy's. it makes it very difficult to get new developments on the market. shery: and a very difficult year for xi jinping. vonnie quinn has a first word headlines and, more challenges on the climate and drought front as well. vonnie: exactly, more warnings from chinese president xi jinping urgent regional authorities to help believe the severe drought. some factories have been forced to curb production as the heat wave in southern china hit hydropower generation. water levels in the rivers have fallen to the lowest recorded level for this time of year. long time trump organizatio
we have got esther george with reluctance around a supersized hike.bullard are calling for a three-quarter-basis-point move. also keeping an eye on the chip stocks in korea, as well as earnings coming through from australia. another headwind is certainly what is going on in china's property markets. we are continuing to see the biggest property companies trading at a steep discount. surprising because of the macro issues there, including the continued reliance on covid zero policy's. it makes...
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Aug 10, 2022
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esther george wants to protect qt she wants to make sure the fed reduces the balance sheet. her idea, don't create huge disruptions so they can stomach this massive quantitative tightening coming through. i don't know how much support there is for esther's idea. >> that wasn't quick and you didn't answer. i'm going to change it to senator leasisman. you danced around that. >> economics report steve liesman. >> let's welcome in professor jeremy seigal of the wharton school certainly a senior voice in this discussion professor, thanks for joining us >> happy to be here. i like -- i like these football analogies sitting in philadelphia reference to jalen hurts i'm an eeagles fan. i'm with you. >> that's the question steve put it out there, professor, since you're rolling with it, i'm from philadelphia myself right now is jay powell jalen hurts or carson wentz? can he lead it to a soft landing or a fumble? >> i've been a big critic of him. he shouldn't have let the inflation get as bad as it did but he got religion, so to speak, and he's moving we do have five more weeks and as
esther george wants to protect qt she wants to make sure the fed reduces the balance sheet. her idea, don't create huge disruptions so they can stomach this massive quantitative tightening coming through. i don't know how much support there is for esther's idea. >> that wasn't quick and you didn't answer. i'm going to change it to senator leasisman. you danced around that. >> economics report steve liesman. >> let's welcome in professor jeremy seigal of the wharton school...
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Aug 25, 2022
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so we asked esther george actually volunteered this yesterday. she wants to see three months in a row of good data i think there is a question as to whether that is good month-to-month data which i guess would involve the year-to-year rate coming down. and i think what that means, and this is where it gets actually interesting for the market is this notion that the market had priced in which is that the fed would reach a peak level and then start to cut, which is the way the fed rate outlook is priced right now then you had guys like harker tell me this morning you know what i see us reaching three, four, then going flat. that is consequential for the stock market i wouldn't be making my bets for all of my retirement on these notions but if you have shorter term decisions to make i think they factor in >> i want your reaction, too, to what goldman sachs said this week about what he expects to happen out there we expect powell to reiterate the case for slowing the pace of tightening laid out if the press conference and the minutes we continue to e
so we asked esther george actually volunteered this yesterday. she wants to see three months in a row of good data i think there is a question as to whether that is good month-to-month data which i guess would involve the year-to-year rate coming down. and i think what that means, and this is where it gets actually interesting for the market is this notion that the market had priced in which is that the fed would reach a peak level and then start to cut, which is the way the fed rate outlook is...
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Aug 18, 2022
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esther george of kansas city given remarks today said that the case for a rate hike remains strong. she said my colleagues and i are going to continue to debate the size. she said it on the first 75 basis point hike. she said we have rates up and we are doing it fast. mary daly told us what she told us a week ago speaking as well. 50 or 75. her baseline is 50 but she is open to 75. let's talk about the economic numbers that sherry just mentioned. jobless claims 250,000 in the latest week. they have been stuck at a healthy level supporting the fed's view that the labor market is still strong. home sales are down 5.9% existing home sales hit the lowest since 2020. this is where the fed is keeping a close eye because organs rates of shot up. people have pulled out of contract closing. this was already hitting the economy and it may continue to hit. >> you can see that push pull in the markets. we saw the jp morgan representative defending the buying the dip call saying he sees more about buffer for these orchids. what about the dynamics that are at play? >> bonds are a choice for inves
esther george of kansas city given remarks today said that the case for a rate hike remains strong. she said my colleagues and i are going to continue to debate the size. she said it on the first 75 basis point hike. she said we have rates up and we are doing it fast. mary daly told us what she told us a week ago speaking as well. 50 or 75. her baseline is 50 but she is open to 75. let's talk about the economic numbers that sherry just mentioned. jobless claims 250,000 in the latest week. they...
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Aug 25, 2022
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esther george says she needs to see 4%. she said longer and higher for longer and rates above 4%. fuller has been very, give us more and give us more now. get us to 3 1/2 to 4% before you are in. back to the market, we priced in a lot. we talk all the time about positioning. the reality is one thing but the expectation and where positioning are often more important for markets. cash levels are north of 6% of the hedge fund community. s&p future shorts. people are expecting not great news. even though the market had a great july you can see semi conductors have underperformed the market by 5% even after a big move today. a lot of this is at least for now, i think it is getting more priced in. >> when you think about the data that the federal reserve looks that we know everything that is fairly standard. if you are jerome powell would you want to look at things like natural gas prices? and things that aren't totally captured in some of the jobless claims numbers? you want to look at company announcements about layoffs or slow hiring. you add that into the importance of your data set
esther george says she needs to see 4%. she said longer and higher for longer and rates above 4%. fuller has been very, give us more and give us more now. get us to 3 1/2 to 4% before you are in. back to the market, we priced in a lot. we talk all the time about positioning. the reality is one thing but the expectation and where positioning are often more important for markets. cash levels are north of 6% of the hedge fund community. s&p future shorts. people are expecting not great news....
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Aug 25, 2022
08/22
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that we see today take are driving the imbalance that we see in the economy. >> reporter: and esther george full interview is on our website, foxbusiness.com. maria. maria: edward, thanks very much. edward lawrence joining us in jackson hole this morning where the action is heating up. quick break and then florida governor ron de santis giving a colorful smackdown to dr. anthony fauci. wait until you hear these comments. they're making a buzz this morning. ♪ my relationship with my credit cards wasn't good. i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. between the high interest, the fees... i felt trapped. debt, debt, debt. so i broke up with my credit card debt and consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. i finally feel like a grown-up. break up with bad credit card debt. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up to $100k. go to sofi.com to view your rate. sofi. get your money right. ♪ ♪ if you shop at walmart, you get it. ♪ you know how to spend a little less to get a little more to make life a little better. ♪
that we see today take are driving the imbalance that we see in the economy. >> reporter: and esther george full interview is on our website, foxbusiness.com. maria. maria: edward, thanks very much. edward lawrence joining us in jackson hole this morning where the action is heating up. quick break and then florida governor ron de santis giving a colorful smackdown to dr. anthony fauci. wait until you hear these comments. they're making a buzz this morning. ♪ my relationship with my...
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Aug 25, 2022
08/22
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i talked to esther george, a voting member putting on this conference and she says the federal fundss first thought to be. >> are we seeing 4%? do believe it should be there or higher than that? >> it should be in that neighborhood as we go through depending what else we see. >> coming down to 8.5%, inflation did come down but the core inflation, remained flat over year, that might not indicate a peak of inflation yet. >> it was good news in the sense that it wasn't continuing to rise but you see broad-based inflation in that corner number and we need more to see if it is convincing if moving in that direction. >> reporter: she would be open to 50 basis points or 75 for a rate hike at the september meeting and it will depend on the jobs report coming out next week. >> of the job number comes to the upside which is where the last one was is that a concern for inflation going forward? >> that's one of the signals to say this inflation may be stickier, this broad-based pressure we see may take longer to come down and require more interest rate. >> reporter: she would not say the word re
i talked to esther george, a voting member putting on this conference and she says the federal fundss first thought to be. >> are we seeing 4%? do believe it should be there or higher than that? >> it should be in that neighborhood as we go through depending what else we see. >> coming down to 8.5%, inflation did come down but the core inflation, remained flat over year, that might not indicate a peak of inflation yet. >> it was good news in the sense that it wasn't...
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Aug 31, 2022
08/22
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. >> high yields, remember when we spoke to esther george, president of the kansas city fed at their symposium last week, she made it clear that she thought above 4%, 4.5%, possibly, even higher. it depends on inflation how it works. but, it is on the table now. i think it is interesting to wonder what the markets will do after this. >> yes, you have to wonder if there is more repricing of expectations to come. the other thing is you are getting increasingly analyst saying investors are too preoccupied with the fed outlook. mike wilson, the chief u.s. equity strategist of morgan stanley is saying investors need to press for more pain. he says the u.s. index stock index, particularly, the s&p 500 has not hit bottom yet this year. he is talking up out not -- about not because the fed will be hawkish but because the equity market is too optimistic about the earnings outlook. he says earnings get cut -- if earnings get cut we will see the market bottom. they say that is probably between september and december. >> let's get more on today's top stories with bloomberg reporter emily raqqa a
. >> high yields, remember when we spoke to esther george, president of the kansas city fed at their symposium last week, she made it clear that she thought above 4%, 4.5%, possibly, even higher. it depends on inflation how it works. but, it is on the table now. i think it is interesting to wonder what the markets will do after this. >> yes, you have to wonder if there is more repricing of expectations to come. the other thing is you are getting increasingly analyst saying investors...
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Aug 25, 2022
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. >>> ahead of the speech, don't miss interviews today and tomorrow with esther george and patrick hawk jim bullard and more live from jackson hole, wyoming. >>> still to come on "worldwide exchange." peloton is set to report results. we will dive into the deal is a first step to better days for the fitness company. >>> we will also have other stories coming up as we head to break. we touch on the trending stories. gamestop apparently boosting compensation for some employees in store the retailer will give workers a pay raise in company stock to motivate and retain employees. >>> warner bros. discovery hitting pause on a number of films. "aquaman" and "shazam" is cutting back as they look to save money. >>> and pink floyd catalog is not close to striking a deal with blackstone. "worldwide exchange" is back in a moment makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help
. >>> ahead of the speech, don't miss interviews today and tomorrow with esther george and patrick hawk jim bullard and more live from jackson hole, wyoming. >>> still to come on "worldwide exchange." peloton is set to report results. we will dive into the deal is a first step to better days for the fitness company. >>> we will also have other stories coming up as we head to break. we touch on the trending stories. gamestop apparently boosting compensation...
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Aug 31, 2022
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after george, i think she did -- esther george, i think she did a great job saying she wants inflationthe right direction and we will feel comfortable from a funds perspective. you have not really heard that from powell. i do not expect that you will in the coming meeting. i think that is a conversation you really need to drive home. kriti: tom porcelli, chief u.s. economist of rbc capital, thank you. it is the time factor that has the market having jitters. the s&p 500 down 5/10 of 1%. coming up, two of wall streets biggest banks say it is time to come back to the office. this is bloomberg. ♪ kriti: this is "bloomberg markets." i am kriti gupta a luncheon erlichman. -- i am kriti gupta along jon erlichman. sonali basak joins us now. sonlai: the communication was around covert requirements and that is lifting many of them. if you are in new york, there is still a vaccine mandate for most employees. but many restrictions of testing once a week or more, that will be lifted. also restrictions when it comes to isolations if you are a symptomatic. the banks had also previously given tests t
after george, i think she did -- esther george, i think she did a great job saying she wants inflationthe right direction and we will feel comfortable from a funds perspective. you have not really heard that from powell. i do not expect that you will in the coming meeting. i think that is a conversation you really need to drive home. kriti: tom porcelli, chief u.s. economist of rbc capital, thank you. it is the time factor that has the market having jitters. the s&p 500 down 5/10 of 1%....
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Aug 25, 2022
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powell tomorrow, michael mckee spoke earlier with fed kansas president -- kansas city president esther george
powell tomorrow, michael mckee spoke earlier with fed kansas president -- kansas city president esther george
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Aug 25, 2022
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than hitting a target is moving in the right direction and consistently doing that which is what esther georgelooking for, too, is moving in the right direction and bringing the numbers down and coming towards that target and then we'll talk later about how we actually get to the target >> dow up about 30 points. s&p 500, as well coming up, reaction and analysis to st. louis fed president james bullard. plus a tech club in the heartland and make his state the center of transportation innovation later, ron baron is investing in fig and riot resorts should you follow the lead we'll talk about it in the lunch. ch robinson, cf duriinstes and on semi. "power lunch" will be right back ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> a baseline would be that probably inflation will be more persistent than what many on wall street expect and that's going to be higher for longer and i think that's a risk that's underpriced in markets today. >> do you worry about that when you look at the outlying futures contracts and say -- >> all right that was st. louis fed president james bullard just moments ago, speaking with steve liesman. his comme
than hitting a target is moving in the right direction and consistently doing that which is what esther georgelooking for, too, is moving in the right direction and bringing the numbers down and coming towards that target and then we'll talk later about how we actually get to the target >> dow up about 30 points. s&p 500, as well coming up, reaction and analysis to st. louis fed president james bullard. plus a tech club in the heartland and make his state the center of transportation...
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Aug 25, 2022
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. >> of course >> esther george today did say she would want to see at least three months of consistent data in terms of looking for relief from inflation that was the first time i had heard a hard number. if we're really in for a volckeresque period, is three months even enough >> george is probably suggesting in terms of the downshift from the large 75 point basis point hikes we've been seeing to 50, ultimately to 25 and to zero, it doesn't necessarily mean that the federal reserve will be lowering its policy rate the fed is pushing back on that idea in fact if the fed follows through on what its plan is and the only plan we have is what's in the summary of economic projections, a 3.8% policy rate. that would provide a positive real interest rate so the lesson of history from the volcker period, not talking about the same yields and levels of rates, but in terms of the thematic, which is to move the policy rate up enough and then as the inflation rate comes down, let the real interest rate, which is the difference between the policy rate and inflation, let that move up and hold it the
. >> of course >> esther george today did say she would want to see at least three months of consistent data in terms of looking for relief from inflation that was the first time i had heard a hard number. if we're really in for a volckeresque period, is three months even enough >> george is probably suggesting in terms of the downshift from the large 75 point basis point hikes we've been seeing to 50, ultimately to 25 and to zero, it doesn't necessarily mean that the federal...
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Aug 25, 2022
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jonathan: esther george this morning. live from jackson hole.% on the s&p 500. as we gear up for a big day ahead at jackson hole. tom: that speech tomorrow, we are thinking about fear and the underpinning of our monetary system. that system is not just the united states, the global system. as we continue with mohamed el-erian. farmer with an economic perspective from his university of cambridge. i want to go to the international tone, central bankers of the world. a singular future i have is the focus is on plaza, quarter like partners when there is em. forget about idiosyncratic, turkey out over 18 there are. what will be the shot of powell action to a more fragile emerging-market in a third world economy? mohamed: it is a high-risk situation. you have higher rates, so more uncertain market conditions. you have global economic growth slowing much faster than most people expected. you have a stronger dollar. historically, that is not been a favorable mix for american economies. lisa: how much does this lead back the u.s. economy? how do you blee
jonathan: esther george this morning. live from jackson hole.% on the s&p 500. as we gear up for a big day ahead at jackson hole. tom: that speech tomorrow, we are thinking about fear and the underpinning of our monetary system. that system is not just the united states, the global system. as we continue with mohamed el-erian. farmer with an economic perspective from his university of cambridge. i want to go to the international tone, central bankers of the world. a singular future i have...
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Aug 26, 2022
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on any occasion you don't want to listen to what they're trying to tell you >> that's not it >> esther george said go past 4% and stay there for a while >> believe it or not, you're welcome to be skeptical of this. cine qua non from where we are is inflation jay powell doesn't wake up in the morning and say let's crush the economy. he says let's crush inflation. if i have to crush the economy along the way so be it gasoline futures before -- hold on, before you start laughing, let's get it all out there josh, i see you laughing i think it's inappropriate, okay i think you should give some credence to the other side of the story. gasoline futures are down 40%, corn, cotton, wheat futures back to where they were before the russian invasion, talking about food, we're talking about clothing, cotton, we're talking about fuel yes, i know you're going to come at me about rent i've heard you say that. owner's equivalency rent is one of the most made up fantasticical statistics >> what he'll come at you here, i'll give you the josh, you can't to one without the other you can't say i'll crush inflation
on any occasion you don't want to listen to what they're trying to tell you >> that's not it >> esther george said go past 4% and stay there for a while >> believe it or not, you're welcome to be skeptical of this. cine qua non from where we are is inflation jay powell doesn't wake up in the morning and say let's crush the economy. he says let's crush inflation. if i have to crush the economy along the way so be it gasoline futures before -- hold on, before you start laughing,...
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Aug 18, 2022
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little bit really a little bit more leaning towards the 75 but not the odds-on favorite right now esther georgectory lap. she still sees a significant difference between the supply and demand in this economy so she is also onboard what's happening, kelly, i think you may understand, the market is perceiving this pivot, perceiving these rate cuts next year and the fed is leaning against it am bullard is saying again as he told us, it's premature for the market to be counting on rate cuts next year. >> it's fascinating and 2.88 for the ten year steve, thanks for bringing that to us. our steve liesman. >>> coming up, $54 billion that's how much federal aid airlines received during the pandemic to help offset their losses now the pmajor carriers are making money and unions have a making money and unions have a specific request ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ space. the boundary of human achievement. the new frontier. ♪♪ eh. ♪♪ it's not time to escape. it's time to engage. it's time to plant more trees. hoo! ♪♪ time to build more trust. time to make more space for all of us. so while the others look to the metaverse and ma
little bit really a little bit more leaning towards the 75 but not the odds-on favorite right now esther georgectory lap. she still sees a significant difference between the supply and demand in this economy so she is also onboard what's happening, kelly, i think you may understand, the market is perceiving this pivot, perceiving these rate cuts next year and the fed is leaning against it am bullard is saying again as he told us, it's premature for the market to be counting on rate cuts next...
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Aug 19, 2022
08/22
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go down as -- and the fed may need to do more he doesn't know if recession can be avoided and esther georgerd, now maybe more dovish, saying not a time for a victory lap the markets and fed are in line with where the rates been going to 3.5%. next year is in contention markets priced in 3.25 first is the amount, the other is the direction the fed would have to hike and begin cutting rapidly for the market to get this right but fed officials seem intent on convincing markets the more likely outcome is for the fed to hike and hold. of course, all of that depends on inflation in the coming months it has to come down in a way that convinces officials the decline will be lasting. we'll get to ask the questions next week in jackson hole. >> we're looking forward to that, steve. i have a follow-up question. i heard you talking on "squawk box" this morning about an investor comment you received that basically said that the fed is going to have to pivot. they don't know it yet. >> yeah. >> we've seen this take place where market activity is really going against the grain in terms of the old mantra d
go down as -- and the fed may need to do more he doesn't know if recession can be avoided and esther georgerd, now maybe more dovish, saying not a time for a victory lap the markets and fed are in line with where the rates been going to 3.5%. next year is in contention markets priced in 3.25 first is the amount, the other is the direction the fed would have to hike and begin cutting rapidly for the market to get this right but fed officials seem intent on convincing markets the more likely...
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Aug 26, 2022
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esther george won't say, except she wants it to go higher.so i would pencil in that 3.75 area for where the fed will ultimately go. maybe it stays there for a while with a question that, if that doesn't do enough to solve the inflation problem, it would go higher still >> all right i want to bring in the whole gang rick santelli and bob pisani are joining us give me your take, rick. >> definitely the two-year was around 3.36 when this all occurred, now it's around 3 had the 41 it'sic as high as 3.44-plus. if i had to summarize, it spiked up, but it's coming back down, and 3.43 is the he yield close for mid june, and we can argue the terminal rate is around 3.75, and len ate go to the ten-year, that would in a range around 3.4%. the current high closed just shy of 3.5 for mid june. 3.03 is where we were before the volatility and the speech. it's exactly where it started. maybe the most interesting aspect is the dollar index moved lower, now it's moving higher. the dollar is the thought of euro recession, so it's a muddy indicator. maybe the be
esther george won't say, except she wants it to go higher.so i would pencil in that 3.75 area for where the fed will ultimately go. maybe it stays there for a while with a question that, if that doesn't do enough to solve the inflation problem, it would go higher still >> all right i want to bring in the whole gang rick santelli and bob pisani are joining us give me your take, rick. >> definitely the two-year was around 3.36 when this all occurred, now it's around 3 had the 41...
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Aug 25, 2022
08/22
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i talked with kansas city federal reserve president esther george, a voting member, i might add.hen she wants to reassess to where things are. george also says she says they could go 50 or 75 basis points at the next meeting in september. she, again, is a voting member on that. she says the next jobs report will be a deciding factor for her. the jobs number comes in to the upside,s which is what the last one was, is that a concern for inflation going forward? >> i think it will be one of the signals to say this inflation may be stickier, this broad-based pressure that we see may take longer to come down, may require more interest rate moves to get there. >> reporter: so now that the inflation reduction act has been signed into law, i asked about constant government spending prosecute biden administration which pushes inflation. now, it's a part of the reason that cpi inflation is at 8.5% year-over-year. she deflected but i pushed. is the fiscal spending working against what you guys are trying to do? >> so i think fiscal spending is going to be a component of how we think about t
i talked with kansas city federal reserve president esther george, a voting member, i might add.hen she wants to reassess to where things are. george also says she says they could go 50 or 75 basis points at the next meeting in september. she, again, is a voting member on that. she says the next jobs report will be a deciding factor for her. the jobs number comes in to the upside,s which is what the last one was, is that a concern for inflation going forward? >> i think it will be one of...
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Aug 19, 2022
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interest rate increase of 75 basis points in september, more cautious, p kansas city fed chair esther georgelevel of future rate hikes remains a matter of he debate and we look ahead to the jackson hole symposium in wyoming next week. how do you see it all? >> well, i think the fed has done a great job as we said earlier in the job, jaw boning the markets and they really did get the markets to do the heavy lifting on the tightening side. i think that's one of the reasons why markets think they're bluffing. inflation is starting to roll over which is not to say it's going away. our friends at alpine macro do a really good job of looking at supply driven inflation versus demand driven inflation. dedemand driven inflation has moderated and the good side is almost zero. but you still have sticky cpi which is measured by the atlanta fed at 5.4%, flexible came down 11.3% in july but it's still 16.3% so there's a lot of work yet to be done and that's why i think you continue to hear the fed talk tough but the market is looking past that and i think we'll see with the gdp, the gdp now number for the
interest rate increase of 75 basis points in september, more cautious, p kansas city fed chair esther georgelevel of future rate hikes remains a matter of he debate and we look ahead to the jackson hole symposium in wyoming next week. how do you see it all? >> well, i think the fed has done a great job as we said earlier in the job, jaw boning the markets and they really did get the markets to do the heavy lifting on the tightening side. i think that's one of the reasons why markets think...
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Aug 16, 2022
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before you were with her there at cornell about esther reid, who formed a group in pennsylvania of women to help the soldier. she didn't -- some rivals with george washington that are worth talking about. the big three groups that i had mentioned or native americans, african americans, and women. >> yes and i wanted to, i definitely want to get to talking about esther reid, but i really want to start with this kind of compelling view, the way that you open the book, this compelling view of this map that shows the continent as being a place, an indigenous place, right? i think that i really am compelled by why you chose this image as a way to kind of come into this, and also how you set your book in this history of the revolution. you are starting it in what is known in the united states as the french indian war, but, you know, it's known internationally as a seven years work, which as you point out, is also a misnomer. tell us a little bit about why you chose to highlight or centralize the, this continent as an indigenous place first and why you are so focused on starting this kind of history of the revolution with the conflict on the forks of t
before you were with her there at cornell about esther reid, who formed a group in pennsylvania of women to help the soldier. she didn't -- some rivals with george washington that are worth talking about. the big three groups that i had mentioned or native americans, african americans, and women. >> yes and i wanted to, i definitely want to get to talking about esther reid, but i really want to start with this kind of compelling view, the way that you open the book, this compelling view...
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esther on and with all the strange and efficient switch that doesn't necessarily make sense. so it's, it's very confusing and just one final notice it goes beyond the narrative. it's george all pointed out that also implies manipulating the language. so what thinks met before? it's not even more so what's happening with the sanctions or the economic recession now hitting across the west. well, us or so with the, by the administration is simply changed the meaning of recession. there's nothing recession. this is what we saw. a mother was wrong, and the oldest soldier surrendered, who also surrendered. it wasn't evacuation as it turned out when they put down their weapons and surrendered, and then the russian captivity. this was an evacuation that was repeated across the western media. so we just changed the language instead of you know, to fit with american it's is quite extraordinary and it's, it's not good for us either is not pro russian on far west and are you, this is bad for us in the west as well. you know, vitamin with one of the things i find very interesting is that because there is no dialogue, ok, lincoln in lab ross did speak, but for the readouts is talking
esther on and with all the strange and efficient switch that doesn't necessarily make sense. so it's, it's very confusing and just one final notice it goes beyond the narrative. it's george all pointed out that also implies manipulating the language. so what thinks met before? it's not even more so what's happening with the sanctions or the economic recession now hitting across the west. well, us or so with the, by the administration is simply changed the meaning of recession. there's nothing...
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esther on and with all the strange and efficient switch that doesn't necessarily make sense. so it's, it's very confusing and just one final notice it goes beyond the narrative. it's george all pointed out that also implies manipulating the language. so what thinks met before? it's not even more so what's happening with the sanctions? what are the economic recession now hitting across the west? well, us or so with the, by the administration is simply changed the meaning of recession. there's nothing recession. this is what we saw. a mother was wrong, and the oldest soldier surrendered, who also surrendered. it was an evacuation, as it turned out when they put down their weapons and surrendered, and then the russian captivity, this was an evacuation that was repeated across the western media. so we just changed the language instead of you know, to fit with american it's is quite extraordinary and it's, it's not good for us either. pro russian on thought western argue is bad for us in the us as well. you know, vitamin with one of the things i find very interesting is that because there is no dialogue, ok, lincoln in lab ross did speak but a verb. the readouts is talking ab
esther on and with all the strange and efficient switch that doesn't necessarily make sense. so it's, it's very confusing and just one final notice it goes beyond the narrative. it's george all pointed out that also implies manipulating the language. so what thinks met before? it's not even more so what's happening with the sanctions? what are the economic recession now hitting across the west? well, us or so with the, by the administration is simply changed the meaning of recession. there's...