for now we've got esther george on things these guys look at before pulling the right trigger and how this time and otto strike in which workers are turning down 20% wage hike with the inflation. hope you enjoy the ride. welcome, and and what matters, for that, the -- >> they are going to pause that there is no one certain to goo and tailwind of lowering the savings in july, taylor swift, barbie maney and other things. and ice bounce in july it even though we see potential acceleration in growth, looking at reacceleration of inflation, a lot of risks, you noted a couple of them, united auto workers strike, potential government shutdown if they can't make a deal and technicals are starting to roll over. it really matters how the statement changes about what they could do in november and if the dot plot changes, where the target rate is, it is over 5% now but how does that change going into the future? neil: if they don't move at this meeting, don't know if you confer with francis on that but what do you think? >> i concur with what francis just said, the likelihood they might raise rat