look at etfs that follow commodities or look at etfs following petroleum. is slowdown worldwide. this is a no-brainer. you don't have to look at etfs. liz: i saw a great article in market watch. they pointed out some pretty interesting ones. steven, are there etfs you watch that give you an indication how the economy is going? >> what i watch, liz, divergence something called the cr. about, raw industrial index. these are prices actually paid by factories at the factory door. i look how this index is acting. >> and? >> relative to other etfs just mirror commodities that are traded and so far this index, while it has been weak is still right around where it was in 2008. it is shy of where it was in 2011 and it is really telling us i think that much of the problems we've seen so far have been european-based. and, you know, the traded etfs, i mean who knows. i mean, who knows about, you know, traded commodities? liz: i picked one that is commodity centric but it is scop. it is a daily short on copper. now we know that copper has been dropping so it moves inver

that's the beauty of etfs.to trade during the day. >> correct. >> when we think about the growth of the industry, you want to go to $100 billion. globally you're at a quarter of that right now. is that right? >> we're at $45 billion today. >> i'm sorry, about half of that today. >> yes. >> what do you do to get from here to there? >> really do the same things. continue to launch new and innovative products and educate the adviser and the investor on our exposures and the benefits of etfs and the formula has continued to work. so nothing will change. we're going to grow with the growth of the industry. so in 2014, last year, the industry had its best year ever $239 billion of inflows. in the fourth quarter $118 billion. the best quarter in the industry's history. >> i realize i know who i'm talking to but does it feel like there's something amiss in the market when people are trading these kind of vehicles rather than investing directly in stocks? i know i'm sounding old fashioned now, but what about the change

nice thing about etfs the investors vote with their dollars. doesn't mean they will be always right. over time they talk about liking the manager or strategy and whether it is working or not. transparency lets you see performance and what they're holding helps make you see what is happening. david: advisor shares, noah hammond. thank you very much. liz: good luke to you. david: have we actually hit the bottom for oil? one firm does not think so, talking about $20 a barrel. is that crazy or actually a possibility? liz: it will be a complicated tax season for millions of you because there are new laws in place and budget issues cutting irs resources. ceo of liberty tax here to tell you what you need to know now before april 15th. david: dallas fed president, richard fisher giving us his prediction about rate hikes. take a look. >> i would expect that you will see a high sometime this year. how is that for absolute accuracy? david: better than a lot of people have given us. is he right? will we have a raise of the, excuse me, a raise of the intere

moo is the etf, appropriately named is symbol, moo.et a lot of people are making because it has been beaten down, perhaps it is time for an upward turn? >> we're seeing people tinker around with some of the ags, some of the commodities. we've seen inflows into oil. i think a lot of that is bottom-fishing for a turn. i don't think we're quite there. you probably want to seat market come of a little. people wanting to make those bets we'll see how they turn out. from my perspective too early. liz: plain vanilla stuff, vanguards of the world with low fees which focus on s&p 500 which in itself is up 14% over past year. why not go into that and save yourself a lot of heartache right? >> absolutely should do it. one thing we know less you spend on your investments more you keep. 85% of active managers underperform the s&p 500 over the last three years. liz: yeah. >> that will continue. liz: you're paying them to lose money. that goes to warren buffett's theory, buy the index, right, matt. >> exactly. you can do it in etfs for five basis poi

the semiconductor etf, the smh is up almost 5% this week. one big options trader appears to be skeptical. thanks to a massive trade we saw seven times the daily average put volume trade in the smh today. dan, what does that tell you? >> yeah, it wasn't just today. it was yesterday also. yesterday there was a buyer of 45,000 of the march 54 puts when the stock was about 55.5 or something like that. today another buyer of 50,000 march 55 puts. here's the thing about unusual activity. we quote it all the time. we cite it. you never know exactly what it is. is this an outright bearish stock? this person may own so many semiconductor stocks that this looks like the cheapest short of protection to them in a lot of ways. we don't make decisions just on unusual activity. but it got me thinking about the performance of some of the names. in the etf. massive outperformer last year. it was up 60% of the year. you know what? this year it's down 9% of the year. it's lagged the chart. i think we have it. momentum is waning here. i know there were some lar

that's the i shares etf.up marginally today here but can you see over the past year down about 10%. this represents a swauch of just larger than the ftse 100. shft reasons why the performance discrepancy is there, and then the ewj, a very popular i shares etf as well for the japan market. you can see here up about 6% over the course of the past year. these are the etf's that track. they don't mimic exactly what the underlying indexes do. still, a lot of investors use these as one of the big ways to go about doing the markets there internationally, and i want to mention because you did mention the nasdaq reaching that 15-year high as we inch closer to 5,000. if you look at the qqq, the q's, of course, the ones that track the nasdaq 100, the largest stocks there those stocks, again, moving higher as well. the qqq doing pretty decently brooen. >> it's not been doing badly at all, dom. but my question to you is how much impact has apple had on either the nasdaq composite or the nasdaq 100's run to a 15-year high.

and matt is our etf expert, but i think sometimes they can be too liquid.scotty? >> i like mutual funds. at this stage of the game, and you're not going to like it, charles, i think housing right now we don't know how it's going to go, i think it's slowing down. the mutual fund is the safest way. charles: how much mutual fund investors we have in the house? yeah. i think it's losing a little bit but, listen, here's the problem with mutual funds: it was so successful, you end up with 10,000 of them. and i've got to be quite frank, i think the industry has shot itself in the foot because i go over portfolios, every saturday i spend eight hours going through portfolios, and people will have 12 mutual funds and think they're diverse ifyed. all of them have the same stock. they have different names. the victory fund and the mesh fund and the eagle -- the american fund and the eagle fund. they all have great, wonderful names, and you've got to believe, wow, i've got 12 of them, i'm diversified. no, you're not, you've got ten stocks. [laughter] what people are doi

etf's took in $243 billion.o love them, but it is opening up these strategies to a wider audience. that is why goldman sees them going up to $2 trillion. alix: always good to see you on a friday. market makers is up next. ♪ live from bloomberg headquarters in new york. this is "market makers," with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. >> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york. this is "market makers," with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. >> in europe, it is a race against the clock. prime minister's in a race against the clock before they run out of money. >> do new financial regulations cause more problems than they solve? >> fighting off activist investors. cisco ceo john chambers knows how to do it. you are going to hear from him in a few minutes from now. good morning, everybody. it is a friday here in new york city.

you have all sorts of etfs and mutual funds out there, and they can advertise. your money. and one of the biggest mistakes you can make as an individual investor is to give it to them with the few significant exceptions. unfortunatelily, this is one of the most common money smasmistakes out there. and many equate investing with putting their money in. many people do not have a choice, a lot of you cannot pick individual stocks for your 401 ks. you have a mean out of mutual fund ss to choose from which is why i think a ira is better for you to invest in. what is bad about mutual funds? simple is, if you are investing in mutual funds you are going to to put it softly you are getting hosed. there's worthwhile mutual funds and i will tell you how to find them in a minute. but first you need to understand the problem with the mutual funding model. my main beef is that with actively managed mutual funds. where they are deciding which stocks or securities they are going to buy and sell we have a problem. they do not get paid for performance. they collect fees from the

matt: why don't you go to etfs. one tenth of the fees. of five chance of picking the -- why not put it in a s&p 500 and pay low fees then? >> you're saying, i'm sorry, neil, the cost of the fees will outweigh the benefit of the money manager. neil will tell you that's not true if you find the right money manager. charles: i will also say. one of my problems with individual investor with etfs, it's so liquid, it creates trading mentality. if someone owns a stock and it's down, they may not sell it. the etf moving around is so volatile. i worry about them. the irony is one of the sales angles, because they're liquid, but sometimes too liquid. matt: sure. but that's on the investor, not the product. the product is built for the investor. if you're buying and holding mutual funds versus the etf every second, that's your fault. >> i understand what you're saying, charles. there's a tendency to just jump in and out. especially nor those who have the trader mentality. the double strength and triple strength. charles: what's a mutual fund you lik

there is one rock star that just entered the etf space, jeff dunlop, who entered with his own etf, partnered with state street this week. the state street double line total return tactical etf. david: tell us specifically, tell us what is in that etf. what kind of stocks are we talking? >> well, you're talking about all different types of bonds, not just conventional bonds with corporate and treasurys. david: bond etf. >> you have sovereign debt. you have emerging market high yield. those types of things where he can decide whether he is all-in or out. so totl. something to think because we haven't had this much excitement, especially in the fixed income etf area. liz: if you're less inclined to go with the large caps rob is going with pretty big names. rob you like dupont, you like accenture, unitedhealth group. why are you unafraid in those realms? >> the important thing we own companies with proven business models and very good returns on equity. so we build the portfolio one company at a time. as we think about big needle movers long term investors need to focus on, dupont, if you think

we're talking about the big etf. what do you think?t is sort of surprising so see it rebound like this. >> it is a little bit. i'm going to do my best carter impression and take a walk over to the smart woord. we have seen quite a significance bounce in crude oil. it's bounced easily 30% off of its dead low. if we take a look at the longer term picture, it's still down about 47% on the spot price. since crude fell, you'll notice that the xle is down approximately 20% in that time frame. crude prices, in fact, long dated crude was about $88 a barrel before all this started to happen and it's now about 72. the next question is, are we starting to see a breakout, is this going to bounce back? we crossed the hundred day moving average today. i think one of the most interesting things is the fact that the rig counts dropped so quickly. it shows that the producing community is actually very responsive. take a look at the short interest in the energy stocks going back to 2008. if you think about what's a good time to buy securities, it's when

why do we need the etf to function like a stock?ot have the bonds themselves function more like stocks? you are the buyers. you are the investors review determine what happens at the end of the day. one not force issuers like citigroup and bank of america not to have 1300 or 1500 or 1600 individual securities and just have one? >> archer impressed -- archer impressed -- are you not impressed? erik schatzker just throughout qsip[s at you. >> the security would be fundable with the other. >> i think you're onto something. as mark said a minute ago, they are on the very end of the fixed income market. there's not a prospect for that. you'll need another to help the liquidity. the ones that you just talked about of which only dozens are in the tag which make up -- >> that wouldn't really matter to anybody, right? >> that goes to the segmentation that you are pointed to. we hope that issuers over time would standardize the issue. the current environment with the insatiable demand for bonds from investors and there's not a lot of incentiv

how would you play the commodity move with etfs? is that a bottom here? >> this is something i've been saying. i said three or four weeks ago we're in that place. but if you listen to brian tonight, also a great time to be buying minors. what it outperformed today was the entire mining space. how do i place this? to me the etf which gives you a chance to essentially get a lot of that. it gives you aluminum, steel, coal, iron ore. also some things so bombed out that to me i'm starting to see a bomb even iron ore prices at 56 bucks a ton. >> guy? >> gdx. actually went up on the day. and if b.k. is right about the dollar, you will see a move in gold. i do think there's something going on in gold. i think the miners are levered. you're getting on me. you said brian it's tim. you're five feet away from him. don't think i didn't catch that, hash tag. maybe this crude move to the upside is for real. >> you have a way to play it, grasso? >> it's an ultra short etf. this is not one you leave overnight a lot. b.k. got up at the board talking about a dollar. everyon

centered on the sector itself, people going out of etf's.theless, i was looking at the index of the tracks, and it has been the highest since 2010. are we on the expensive end of this? put that in perspective. >> it is a bit more expensive, compared to the overall market. , and it has been the highestthe thing that you have to look at indexes is that you have apple and you have the rest of the world. apple has been trading at a discount for whatever reason. people are just not popping value into an overvalued stock this might spectacular growth. looking at the average of the companies in the track, the p goes up to about 30 there. it is a little that hot -- higher. apple is basically trading below market multiples now. a lot of these other companies in the tech sector are higher. alix: what about ibm? >> technology is the sector most exposed to overseas sales. that is a big concern for investors. alix: thank you so much for putting that into perspective. "street smart" is up next. ♪ >> we have 60 minutes ago. investors are relating greece ma

you'll see the etf move higher along with it. i'm not going to worry about the ruble exposure at all. i'll be blunt about that. i'll leave it to somebody else to take care of that problem. >> so there's nothing specifically that you're watching, that makes you think now it's going to be the time to get into the rsx or russian stocks in general. >> no, just the fact that we've rallied from the lows. now it's breaking today. it broke on the downgrade. if we can't break for another two or three days, if we hold right here on the news of a downgrade, that will be probably sufficient to say, you know what, time to put my feet into the water and take a look and see what's going on there. bad news. it was very bad news, but not down that much today, and that i thought was impressive. >> dennis, does one need to be bullish or oil or just think oil has bottomed in order to be bullish of the rsx here? >> it would certainly help if oil would stop going down, wouldn't it? if you are going to be a buyer of russia, you making a quasi-implied b

there's an etf for that. dbb is the symbol. >> of course there's an etf for that. there's an etf for everything. >> up to you. >> terrible story to tell you. the islamic state hitting a new low. burning a captive jordanian pilot alive. amman javers has more. >> it's a gruesome video of the jordanian pilot in a cage being burned alive by isis forces. the u.s. intelligence community saying it's working now to verify that this video is accurate. just a few minutes ago, president obama said that if it is accurate the video shows the barbaradi of the islamic state. here's the president. >> i don't know the details of the confirmations, but should in fact, this video be authentic, it's just one more indication of the viciousness and barbaradi of had organization and this organization appears only interested in death and destruction. >> now, the fate of this pilot, tyler, has been a very closely watched story in jordan among the public there. one of the follow-on effects will be to watch and see what impact this has on domestic opinion in jordan of jordan's participation

we have a look at the etf's. seema. >> despite the run-up some traders are telling me this rally could continue. here's why. the economy starting to show signs of improvement. we're seeing a rebound in growth and narrowing of its current account deficit, and inflation moving lower. remember india is a net oil importer, so it has been benefitting from lower oil prices. all those helping to push investors into indian stocks. with that said the country is still facing a lot of challenges. especially when it comes to tackling corruption and port. with that said some analysts say taking a step back and looking at india, in comparison to piers like china, which is dealing with sluggish growth. brazil suffering from lower oil prices and a depreciation in its currency. russia also dealing with declining oil prices and western sanctions. india, in comparison, is being seen as a much more attractive bet. investors like what prime minister -- the pro-business leader has to say and has promised to revive the economy going fo

in a recent etf conference he has to say why he wanted get into the etf business. >> on whether it's etf's will ultimately surpass new wal funds. it seems like a reasonable category to get involved in. >> it's cheap, and it's not that cheap. the cost is 55 basis points a year. that's 0.55%. now, is that worth it? well, it kind of depends. can you get into the van garde total market etf, and you can hold the whole bond market for eight basis points. a fracture of that. the argument is that gunlock has a history of outperforming. he is going on his reputation. i would also note, by the way, this is using a different strategy than gunlock's total return fund. broader fixed income mandate. here they have a lot more places. high yield emerging markets, bank loans, whatever they want that they think will help them generate outflow. we'll see here whether or not this really creates some excitement in the whole new space in etf's of active management. jury is still out, but gunlock has a strong reputation. back to you. >> thank you very much. dom chew now, and the surge in insider selling. s

what will drive your etf? >> we think it's good. coal has had the perfect storm hit it over the last few years with epa regulations in the u.s., very low natural gas prices and waning economies in europe and china, to the extent the news today kind of bolsters things in europe a little bit, i think it's a positive, and we oftentimes lose perspective in the u.s., we have cheap natural gas here, over in europe, things are three and four times more expensive. liz: that's an excellent point, jeff, that he makes, that their feet are held to ice, not even the fire because of russia's threats. russia at the moment somewhat of a nonentity, but keeping with the news today, jeff, tell me what do you think happens on monday with the energy complex as it pertains to europe's demands? >> i think this market is working its way higher. i think we found our footing, a rocky road and the like, all of the things are pointing to the upside, i really do. this looks like a unification. the dollar will probably weaken and we're probably going to work our

it is etf friday. we are looking at the first etf managed.al return had a good start. success is not guaranteed. here to ask line -- explain is our analyst. it sounds like you can do anything. >> it is very free. it can go into any debt up to 25% emerging market. it is a term to say we can make shifts. if the interstate starts to rise, we can fluctuate. the selling point is the fed might hike rates. let's give an active hand to navigate those waters. that is the case that the etf makes. >> let's be and give this opportunity to more investors. you think pimco. >> in the actively managing bases, pimco has been very successful. it used to be run by bill gross. this is a more formidable competitor. just because gross isn't running it, it is up 2%. the new of gross fund is up 0%. they were hit hard in november and october. they had 55 paces points. they have already established 2.5 billion. >> the other challengers are the old guard. >> vanguard is an unstoppable force. if you look at their bond market, they charge .08%. that is six times cheaper.

if you look at currency edged etf's, they make up 5% of the international focus etf asset.nting for 95% of all inflows. it has been going on for a while. they have been growing from 3,000,000,030 two years ago 231 billion today. all of these central banks our purpose -- purposefully devaluing their own currencies but when you are investing overseas and take your gains and convert them to dollars you get crushed. these aluminate the second part of that and allow you to invest in the local shares as if you are standing in that country. i call them surfboards. they are perfectly positioned every time there is a rate cut. let's go in the wisdom tree european hedged equity. the etp doing stimulus. the one that doesn't hedge is up 3%. it is up 16% versus the unhedged. they get to be 20% in some cases. this one just reached $10 billion in assets. >> what are the risks? >> if the dollar weekends, it will flip the whole situation. there is a lot of tactical money going in here trying to ride this until it is over and they hop off. i think it is compelling for a long-term allocation.

etf's can be great. this is where they can also trap you a little bit because you think you're exposed to the gold miners. >> we're going to tell you the answer whz "street signs" returns. boy: once upon a time, there was a nice house that lived with a family. one day, it started to rain. the house tried to keep out all the water, but water got inside and ruined everybody's everythings. the house thought she let the family down. they just didn't think it could happen. they told the house they would take better care of her... always. announcer: protect what matters. get flood insurance. >>> a big gain, a big gain today. its rally continuing. let's get to jackie deangeles at the nymex for a closing price. >> hi, mandy. when the bell rang moments ago i eyeballed wti. at $53.07. we may settle above that mark, although it takes a little bit of time period to get that final closing price. meantime, i do want to point out that we're approaching $60 on brent, and that's what traders are really watching at the sa

and the key russian etf down 30% in six months. all the bad news there, though is this the exact right time to say dah to investing in the russian stock market? we're wack after this. sfloom you know we do this every single day. five stocks the best recommendations. we're going to do it earlier. same great concept, though. just a couple of minutes up. first up, alaska air. raymond james upgrading to a strong buy. their target $80. they see $15 of up said. they say domestic demand is healthy, and costs keep moderating. >> in the past month the airline advisory really been losing a lot of steam. this one is down about 8%. maybe this is to make up for that down side that we've seen most recently. up next here i'm watching live nation entertainment. jeffries raising it to $3 a share. jeffries does see traction in secondary ticketing. expects a solid concert year this year brian. >> 30 a little more bullish. the average target is about $28.550. you have $1.50 more up side. i will say this brian adams, 30th anniversary tour called reckle

it's a quarter of the distance of the width and you define a range where the etf had broken down six or seven months ago and that would be the level it goes to. in my mind you're risking one to make one. if you look on the down side where the support is it's somewhere in the high teens. >> if i read between the lines, you think they are nuts. >> well, no, listen -- >> i don't know why gold goes up or down and i think the gld looks horrific at 115, it probably breaks that big support and you it will me where gdx will be. >> the biggest reason gdx or gold has gone up or down has been the dollar. i think if the dollar maintains its current situation, especially with a little bit of strong news from the miners at lower cost, it does give an opportunity to be propelled to the upside. >> we have a question out there, send us a tweet. check out the website, optionsaction.cnbc.com. sign up for our newsletter. here's what's coming up next. >> one call does it all. >> our traders are calling for domino's disappointment. why it may be wise to avoid fast food. >> plus mike like you've never seen

unhedged is up 3 1/2% and hedged german etf is up 13 1/2%.hat is only within the first five weeks of the year. again because of the strong fundamentals the german exporter into the economy you will see big earnings growth coming out of germany that is independent relatively of its anemic growth rate of 1 1/2%. david: nicholas, great picks. we appreciate you coming on. thank you very much. >> terrific. thanks for having me. liz: two big banks warning that now is the time to reduce our exposure to u.s. equities, just what nicholas is saying. are they right? the banks are right or could mirrored highs be on the way? we're bringing in the panel to duke that one out. >>> plus your chance to thrive like a billionaire. warren buffett's auctioning off his cadillacs. we'll tell you how you can get your hands on it. david: apple hitting another all-time high. getting kind of boring, isn't it? the market cap continues to swell into the 700 billions on the way to a trillion. seems a little rich for you? we have cheaper names that could cash in on apple's

nice about the trade, you said, a quarter of the distance to the width and you defined a range from etfken down six, seven months ago. seemed that would be the level it goes to. basically in my mind risking one to make one. look on the down side, it's somewhere in the high teens. >> if i read between the lines in your assessment of mike and carter's trade, dan you think they're nuts? >> well, no. i think -- i never know why gold goes up or down and would much rather be in the gdx. if it goes back to 110 probably breaks the big support. you tell me where gdx will be at that point? >> the biggest reason gold has gone up and down the dollar. if the dollar maintains its current situation especially with a little strong fundamental news from one of the miners at lower cost that actually gives an opportunity to propel slightly to the up side. >>> got a question, send a tweet at "options action." for everything pkz che"options check out the website. the hottest gossip. while there sign up for the newsletter. news is coming up next. >>> one call does it all. >> and our traders call for a domino

>> you know, so the etf that's supposed to track wti here. one that's interesting as far as options prices. it can only go to zero and it won't. and calls are more expensive than puts. it's a scenario where at the moment it's not ideal but probably better than buying the uso right here which has been very volatile. i would look to sell puts and use the proceeds to buy call spreads and look to create a band with long much lower and actually have exposure to the upside. >> mike? >> right now options premiums are relatively elevated. obviously oil has been extremely volca volatile. this is one way to get long exposure, get paid for taking it. if you have uso put to you it will be at significantly lower levels. >> consensus is we're definitely going to 40. that's -- >> or 30. >> that's why it stopped and started pushing toward 52. if one can put enough time on the trade i think selling puts on uso makes sense. >> and please follow up with carter worth regarding his numerous calls of retest of 1820 on spx. >> if you can think about that drop, sept

that is the greeks etf.here have been all sorts of conflicting comments about whether or not there is a deal. we don't know. you see the greek etf there on an intraday basis popped up. >> when you get the dow industrials up 0.4%. so far in the week. usually don't have that kind of move. this is year-to-date. that particular sector has now stabilized. as for next week i couple of interesting things going on. janet yellin will be testifying in congress. this is what used to be called the old humphrey hawkins testimony. mario droghi will be testifying in the european parliament talking about the ecb. we'll be hearing from some major central bank officials talking to their various parliament. melissa, back to you. >> thanks so much. zirchgs speaking of dom, we try to get to the floor. he is ready now. dom, you got the recount numbers? >> we do. we want to recap them for you and go into more of that detail here. oil and gas rig counts have become a huge focus to pick up where bob left off on the xop, the explorat

the broker would be overwhelmed by multiple sellers at the same -- of the same etfs and those etfs are bonds. so when interest rates hit a certain level and bonds are selling off, that triggers automatic selling in the whole utility index and there's no natural buyers for the stocks and the other people they know to get out of the way since the sellers will come back, and come back, and come back until the circumstances in the bond market change. not the stocks. again, that's a new development. and the old days, there might be if i weres, actual stock picking firms looking to buy a stock at a certain brooitprice, discount. that is over. they destroy what is in the path of the machines. consider it like war. before the machine gun, you can climb out of your trench and there was a chance you might not be mowed down by individual rifle shots. but once the machine gun was invented standing up was a sure fire way to get your head blown off. i think that is a fitting analogy tore what is happening right now and what happened on friday in the utility huge sell off. everything from back in 198

are going out trying to short these kinds of etf's.need to buy shares of it and there's creation of these shares going on. utilities are going down. at the same time people are coming in trying to short them more. very active trade. >> from first to worst those utilities. thank you, bob. >> keeping an eye on transportation car sales are soaring. there's another part of this industry, though that is also rebounding in the economic recovery. boats, morgan brennan live. one of the world's biggest boat shows in miami, florida. what's fueling it? we're all jealous of you out there. >> hey sarah. you know we are seeing a roer in new boat sales, and what's fueling this is a lot of the the same factors that are fueling other big ticket discretionary items like motorcycles and rv's. basically you have an improving labor market rising consumer confidence. also increasing disposable income, thanks in part to lower gas prices. all of those are contributing to a recovery in boat sales that's been long awaited. the national marine manufacturers asso

you can see this in terms of the etfs. i watch volume because that's where people are putting their money, when you get big volume. we are getting big volume in a couple etfs related to materials and commodities groups. coal is getting a lot of play. nobody knows which way oils going. take a look at oil in the last two days. $52 yesterday, goes down to $47, comes up to $52. 10% swings in either direction. does that fundamentally mean anything? no. it's traders that are playing volatility, just trying to profit from the moves. i wouldn't say there's a lot fundamentally going on but there are certainly a lot of people trying to make money off the oil business. automotive, everything firing on all cylinders. great news from auto nation yesterday. their rival group had excellent numbers, earnings above expectations. they get about a third of their sales over in texas. not bad news. o'reilly sells parts they did really well. their comp store guidance 3% to 5% growth up right across the board. that was an excellent report. autom

translating that intoxd individual stocks or individual asset allocations, one of the big reasons etfsket of the capital markets is you don't have to be a stock picker but you could have exposure, so if you believe that india is the place to be, you could buy an etf just for indian stocks if you believe that pharmaceuticals are going to be the best place to invest you can buy an etf just on pharmaceutical stocks. >> you are buying the index. you are buying the whole inindex. >> rose: got you. >> and if you really understand the markets, which very few people do. but as an allocation probably represents 80 percent of performance so unless you have a long-term horizon picking what warren buffett has done, warren buffett has had a 40 plus, 50 year horizon of looking atñr companies taking good leadership and companies that are in a good position, he is using top down analysis of where to go, i mean one of the most brilliant moves of warren buffett, he believed the u.s. economy was strong and always advocating for a stronger economy and during the height of the financial recession of '09, h

the opportunities in india with etfs. oil trying to end eight straight months of losses. this may not be the end of the slide. why some are still saying oil may go down to $20 a barrel. two big hours of power coming your way. back to you on fast money halftime. >> see you in about 15. busy month of trading if in our portfolio competition. jim lebenthal's winnebago play was the best trade of the month. the leaderboard. lebenthal in first place, 13%, wow, he's ahead of joe terranova now who's in second place. four out of the -- five out of the six are in green territory. the retail play though is having a rough day after missing estimateses. that's jc penney. the interesting thing before the market opened today, jc penney was the best trade of the month in our competition. jim is on the phone. i gave you a chance to sell it yesterday, jim. >> you're absolutely right, scott. not my smartest move to keep with it. this isn't the worst thing that's ever happened to me. >> i read the commentary today, dana telsey, well respected analyst, she does so much work on these stocks, ou

. >> how do you -- i know you like your own etf. the iyw. it's your product so i know you like it. the point is, you think those particular stocks are still cheap and there are guys, any number of ways, to play those names? >> yeah. i think i mean if you look at it on a relative basis with the market getting rich in the u.s. marketplace with technology particularly these mature technology companies, the valuations haven't been stretched from just expansion of the valuations. it's been the earnings. keeping up with the price to earnings ratio. they're still relatively cheap trading 13 times compared to the broad market 17. >> with something like this, judge, with the blackrock etf, it's pretty broad swath of exactly what she described. you can dive in and get specific and go after like semis with the smh or something like that. >> smh, xlk, the 100, with the qs. >> app is almost 20% of the xlq. >> you don't want to pick something in tech on your own and not get some of that alpha you're looking for which is why you pick a broad market one like hers. >> that's exactly our point. if y

take a look at the energy spider etf, up almost 7% for the past five sessions.ggest laggard of 2014 said to be the best by of 2015 the director of etf research were s&p capital joins us. this depends on where you see oil prices headed. brent today approaching a bull market since its low on january 13. at what time is this more than just a short covering rally? >> i think we need the shorts by situation to work itself out. we think oil will save -- will stabilize around here but we are not a ring the energy sector. we are not overweighting it, though xl a is a way to get increased exposure. >> there are several reasons why oil prices have been climbing. which of these are credible? is it the decline in the dollar? >> all of those things are a factor and at some point, it was going to form some level of stability and support, whether it's here or whether we have another leg to go is to be determined. we think production cuts are a positive for the long run but it's a negative for the drilling companies that will be a short term negative impact. we think the integr

listed etf. you see that etf plunging on the back of that news. the greek of finance minister continues to talk today, he meets with the german finance minister later on. let's get with hans nichols. what are we expecting from that meeting? hans: we are expecting the german finance minister to present this unified european front. what you saw, out of the ecb last night when they announced they would not be accepting recruit -- pre-collateral greek debt as collateral for ecb loans. there is a separate issue greece's ability to issue new get. they're running against their limit. they want to get it up to 25 billion, a 10 billion bridge. but they need acquiescence from the ecb, the imf and the troika. we don't know if that will be granted, but the hardline last night on using greek debt as collateral suggests that might not be the case. the greek finance minister tried to put a brave face on this. they said the greek banking system remained adequately capitalized and fully protected under emergency liquidity assistance. he did answer interview with g

the same with the bond etfs out there.unas, the vanguard total bond etf is almost $30 billion in this fund. all the way up and all the way down so far this year. that's a complete round trip. you see the bounce in the euro was a factor and the idea that the fed would be raising rates sooner than expected. finally, housing starts tomorrow, bill, and we're going to get building permits for january. the itb, there's the home builder etf. that's also at a new high for the year and the idea here being very simple here maybe the fed with market rates will be moving down mortgage rates moving down for the last couple months has been a big boon to them. i saw di arn thatanea olick today talking about mortgage rates going up. rates going up so we see the bond yields moving up. >> you see some refi action move up as well as people expect rates to go higher. >> isn't it amazing, we still do refi stories now. we've done four refi stories in the last four years. every year they hit new bottoms. i think this is probably it though. >> th

rick says i would like to fill an etf slot with a conservative or folio.ughts from you or the panel. for me personally, i'm not in it yet, morgan stanley, goldman sachs, many have had a really good earnings report, i like that come i think it is conservative. >> disco by the etf is the one okay, three small capitals, looking here, walter a&r, $200 each, what do you think? i'm not doing the coals that. -- kohl's. you don't have weatherford on there, i do like weatherford. i also like clr. >> oil services, i agree on them. charles: that is where we are there. hadi said its national pizza day. and dominoes is a pretty good one as well. a wonderful chart, maybe let it pull back a few days. >> of course, that eventually means you could benefit from that. >> issa mcdonald's with the same store sales, down almost 13%, we have a big debacle in japan, i'm going through the same thing. have they recovered from that. >> we do see that as an opportunity. charles: how long? because it feels early. >> i would say three years. >> you know, people are saying okay, gas pri

but on both fronts do you like buying the s&p etf? >> well i think the most important thing i'd share is we see clients every day and compared to the late '90s when we had to tell people to reduce their risk people are still under invested in stocks. the average person watching this show. and what i would suggest is it might be possible we go to 2,000, but i would absolutely not be betting against this market. we have too much tailwind. it's the third year of a presidential cycle. the idea that the fed is actually going to raise rates or that the world's governments will stop funding the economy, i just don't believe it's a possibility. we have too many risks still out there. the fed has always proven to be slow. there's no hint of inflation. and what we see that's really bullish is unlike the rally that's happened recently which is led by real estate recovery for the last few years and the fed, we're seeing job expansion. that will have significant impact to gdp. there's nothing more powerful to the stock market than the average amer

you can get creatives with these etfs.nto ones that just invest in clinical stage companies and ones with products on the market. >> you have been an investor in all three. >> yes. >> why? >> i don't have the stomach to wake up to a failed phase three trial and have a stock down "x" percent and we like the idea of continued consolidation in the biotech industry. big pharma has to go somewhere. this is the pipeline for them. we have them all. today was just a pain delivery mechanism for all three of them today. but they have been good for a long time. i like all three. >> the gilead quarter gave people reason to sell the entire space it feels like to me. robin from deutsche bank has $125 price target on gilead. the quarter is great it's a question whether you believe competition is going to cut into their margins. i think gilead is a great story. we saw this before january, the stock went from 100 and change down to 88. it's a volatile stock. >> you buy it here? >> yeah. >> merck is coming on the market. >> and we've has th

liz: you're picking an etf here, i think it's perhaps a safer china etf play. >> that's right.viously i recommended investing in the chinese a-share, that soared like 40%. it's still cheap, still hated. in an uptrend. but right now by the criteria of cheap, hated and uptrend, the very best market is hong kong-listed chinese stocks. eight times earnings, the world's biggest companies. liz: large caps. >> china mobile, china construction. >> petro china, some of the world's biggest businesses, trading at 8 times earnings, completely ignored. everybody is worried about china. this is what you want to see. china in an easing mode where the u.s. is tightening interest rates. loosening reserve requirements, it's a great opportunity. liz: we don't have a ton of time, john, trees do not grow to the sky. we've had a five, six year long bull market since the bottom march of 2009. where is the 20% correction? i know it's coming in fits and starts, are we getting set up for something that is a little more painful? >> liz, we had a 20% correction in 2011. the average stock down 26% from pea

check on some of the gold mining etf's. the gold -- the market gold miners etf, the gdx, and that's the gexj. both you can see there p by 2% as well. back to you. >> dom thank you. >> oil prices continue to move up. morgan bren airborne has the fall-out. >> that is the national strike. more than three decades. it's getting bigger. we'll have that story when "power lunch" returns. hey, girl. is it crazy that your soccer trophy is talking to you right now? it kinda is. it's as crazy as you not rolling over your old 401k. cue the horns... just harness the confidence it took you to win me and call td ameritrade's rollover consultants. they'll help with the hassle by guiding you through the whole process step by step. and they'll even call your old provider. it's easy. even she could do it. whatever, janet. for all the confidence you need td ameritrade. you got this. >>> i'm sue herrera, and here's your cnbc news update for this hour. president obama and german chancellor angela merkel had their news conference earlier today. th

the etf that tracks the nasdaq 100. we saw funds coming out in december and january.n is whether or not there's still ammunition. maybe there is if you take that contrarian view. >> thank you. >> interesting report. the company is now considering getting into the car business. apple is working on an electric vehicle could could be driverless. phil and josh lipton are here with us and you know josh lipton, what would be the impetus to really complete the ecosystem? >> well i think there's a couple of different things that come out of this if anything melissa. one is it's certainly possible that what apple is pursuing is just more in car technology. we know that that's a passionate and interest in cupertino. already offer their car plate technology. when you talk to analysts there are certainly some who think apple could be interested in building its own car. the car is described now as a computer on wheels. the head of gardener's automotive practice he calls the car sort of the ultimate mobile device. just give it all the things we can do there. apple can make a mark.

if you believe that india is the place to be, you could buy an etf just for indian stocks. if you believe that pharmaceuticals are going to be the best place to invest, you could buy an etf just for pharmaceutical stocks. you are buying the index. you are buying the whole index. if you really understand the markets, which very few people do, but asset allocation probably represents 80% of performance. unless you have a long-term horizon -- look at what warren buffett has done -- warren buffett has had a 40-plus-year horizon of looking at companies, picking good leadership, companies in a good position. he is using top-down analysis of where to go. i think one of the most brilliant moves warren buffett data, he believed the u.s. economy was always strong. during the height of the financial recession in 2009, he buys burlington northern. he possibly could have said, i think oil products should be translated -- transported in cars, too. if you don't have a long horizon like warren buffett, i do believe you need to focus on investing more in indexes. to me, it is a bearish view

the etf business has grown 30% a year for the last 10 years. it is behemoth.terest rates eventually start going up, i think you'll see money come out of bonds and naturally, i think we'll go to the cap etf's. as a stock picker, it becomes easier to pick stocks would have a very correlated investment world like we have. if everything is indexed, companies like ours that are doing individual stock picking, i think you have quite an advantage and i think that is what we're seeing right now. >> craig thank you for joining us, craig hodges. they can also to julie hyman and mike reagan for joining us at the opening bell. we are staying all over the markets this morning. we will keep you what is updated -- updated on what is moving. stay "in the loop." ♪ >> breaking news on barnes & noble. >> shares climbing to a six-year high on news that it is breaking up its business. it is when a separate its education business from the retail and the e-reader business called nook spinoff the college business to tax-free publicly traded companies. investors pushed for spinoff of

check out the biggest european etf. the van garde vgk. it's only up about 1% this year. what's fueling europe's rally and whether it can continue to outperform the u.s. sima, over to you. >> sue, it's an interesting story. the euro zone may be in deflation and growing less than 1%. that's not stopping investors from buying european stocks. the europe 600 index, in fact trading at a seven-year high. vastly outperforming the s&p 500 so far this year. the reason? central bank policy. the promise that the european central bank quantity takive easing program will stimulate growth across the euro zone. add to that the weaker juroro expected to boost exports and provide a lifted to european corporate earnings. something that is already playing out this corporate earnings season. you know the u.s. has been focussing on the stronger dollar and negatively impacting corporate earnings of some of the u.s. multi-nationals here. the focus has been on the weaker euro and the positive impact it's having on multi-nationals like volkswagen and bmw. something that we've also been talking a