joe: ethan harris of bank of america, thank you were coming out. flowswhat do the stock have to do with the u.s. market crash of 1929? we will see you the celebrities tell you thered -- similarities when we return. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. alix: one analyst is comparing the crash of 1929 to the current selloff of the chinese stock. joe: he says chinese stocks will decline by about 14% over the next three weeks. alix: he says the trading patterns mirror the 1929 crash. the dow down from 29 to 31 in that purple line. the decline does a little -- does look a little bit uncanny. fun startsare always to look at, even if they do not pan out. dear definitely not perfect science. alix: twitter earnings crossed just moments ago. julie hyman is looking at the numbers for us. we are seeing the stock surge in after-hours trading. joe: coming into the report very depressed. revenue up 61%. that is a bigger gain than the estimated, and real sales forecast for the full year. it looks like monthly active his 16 millionn showed enough gr

jonathan: that was bank of america's ethan harris. it is all about september, he says.in the show the consumer confidence numbers are not pretty. what is the story? manus: i think they still want to normalize. reputation is a very hard thing to earn and a very easy thing to lose. with that in mind, credibility in the federal reserve rests in the power to raise rates by 25 basis points. if they do, fine. change them jonathan: when i look at the earnings this morning, the one that set out to me with only 2.1%. given what is happened in the commodity market, is that quite remarkable? manus: think about what total dead, this came through -- total did, they produced $3 billion this time lester. have -- last year. he is a vice chair and rothschild. he has his bankers hat on, we know he is doing that. he was formally a ceo, we get his take on what is happening with the dividends, and total. and we will catch up with the ceo af peugeot so we see what he has to say. autos are one of the second worst-performing industries in this quarter. however, they had their triumphant moment

tom: when you talk to ethan harris, is the money going abroad?rs therefore colegate, except they are putting into malaysia? savita: that might be the case and that has been the case for a while, but in terms of the marginal investment dollar, the u.s. equity market is the least exciting place to be right now amongst all the other regions. brendan: do corporate finance textbooks know how to keep up with low growth? savita: [laughs] are we off the grid? i think it is a great question. i think there are two big bubbles forming right now, and they are about to pop in a pretty bad way. one of them is arty starting to. the first is yield odds. you mentioned these bonds like companies, that is where everybody flock stupid the other side are these high-growth smaller cap, i secular growth -- because the idea to cycle death, user have to buy idiot sigrid -- idiosyncratic debt -- tom: i agree with every thing you are saying except against overwhelmed by cashman said, cash generated. what are they going to do with that cash? savita: at least in the u.s., we

ethan harris and dan greenhaus. good to see you both on jobs and greece of course. >> let's turn to greece where clearly the countdown is on to sunday ace referendum and whether the country or voters should accept the bailout terms. our chief international correspondent, michelle caruso-cabrera is live in athens with the latest. the rest of the euro zone should have shot down the dealings with greece. i guess the focus becomes totally on opinion polls and what's happening locally with the politician within greece now. >> the other european leaders have said, yes, you want a referendum go. for it. there is a poll that shows the yeses in the lead. despite the criticism, not enough time to prepare, one week tonal debate the question is way too complicated. preparations are underway for this ballot when it comes to getting them printed up organized, boxed, shipped out. municipal workers have been preparing. the frames for the voters are on a truck to be sent around to the actual ballot. i have it here. this is the quest

but we got a positive sign out of bank of america's top economists ethan harris, saying puerto rico is not a systemic or a bellwether event for muni bond investors. we'll watch this for you, neil. put it in perspective. $72 billion, it's 100 billion with the health care benefits sale. it's about the size of general mills stock market corporation. neil: we're getting closer and closer to home. started with greece, moved to puerto rico and the u.s. of a. now in chicago, the state of illinois, both in a heap of financial trouble. fiscal year just starting and illinois is without a budget. technically without a formal working regularly ordering government. you know, some emergency funding obviously continuing. chicago is part of that as well. jeff flock on both, jeff? >> reporter: i'll take your 72 billion in puerto rico and raise you another 100 billion to make it 172 billion which is what illinois is in debt. i want to show you the numbers in a second. first to the governor, you said absolutely right, we have run out of money. today is the first day of the new fiscal year. governor bruce