can the eu survived? the new year has finally begun and the eu is facing new crises. more and more states are read imposing border controls. poland's new nationalist government is curtailing democratic freedoms. nationalists and eurosceptic parties are gaining ground in many countries. year16 set to the a crunch for the eu? what common glue holds the eu together? coming to you from berlin, "quadriga," the common debate. your host this week, peter craven. peter: hello and welcome to "quadriga" coming to you from the heart of the german capital. the new year has hardly begun and the eu is facing another crisis or crises. we've heard it all before. the european union has been threatened with breakup, perhaps. commentators seem to agree that a breaking point is near. the question we are masking -- asking and many are asking is, can the eu survive? i'm joined in the studio by three seasoned analysts and commentators. let me introduce them to you. wojciech szymanski, the german correspondent for the polish public broadcaster, polskie radio. facess the european union huge ch

and a meeting of eu leaders. is there any reason to expect that meeting to produce more cooperation than we have seen in the past months? judy: no. and there is not hope the president of turkey is going to cooperate. he has been stung by the islamic state and the recent suicide attacks in turkey. he is going to be loath to keep the refugees there. secondly, how many summits have the eu had over the refugees? as if they did not see this problem happening or three years ago. there is a plan b on the table. essentially, core countries who will keep the borders open. cooperate, the borders will be closed. merkel is not going to be handed any kind of support. she is in a difficult situation. you to elaborate on that plan b and a moment. first, let's take a look at some of the numerous eu summits and the resolutions they have issued which have not been followed up upon. turkey.le, the eu has promised turkey 3 billion euros. but italy is reported to be blocking the deal. as a result, turkey is stalling on its end of the

in the eu.here is no doubt whatsoever about the willingness on behalf of germany and angela merkel in particular to find some kind of accommodation that allows david cameron to effectively camp can keep the u.k. in the eu. david cameron is racking up the air miles recently to try to persuade his eu colleagues about the need for reform. you mentioned angela merkel seemingly being on his side but there are 20 or so nations that to not seem so amenable. >> that's true. outcome of time, the last month's eu summit in was surprisingly positive the prime minister in that there was a remarkable show of goodwill for the u.k. it's almost certain they will find some kind of compromise that he can take back home to show to voters. no one knows what the shape of the compromise will be. angela merkel has been clear that there are certain line she cannot us there will be a compromise. whether that will be enough to convince the british public at large and members of david cameron's cabinet to a campaign to rem

it is his way of reviving a relationship with the you -- eu that used to be very strong. >> eu was iran'se trading partner, they were buying machinery and industrial equipment while one and five barrels of oil landed in the eu. but in 2012, the band -- banned the oil as a part of international sanctions. it affected the trade figures between the two. 2011-2014, it killed off -- tailed off to 6.4 billion euros. and the industry shop -- shrunk down to 1.2 billion euros. just how much trade will increase is hard to estimate, but first the you and iran - - eu and iran will have to align priorities. iran is hoping for more foreign aid to boost domestic production and exports. hassan rouhani is in paris today, so we will bring in lisa lewis who is in paris. what is on his business agenda in france? >> the iranian president will meet with business leaders from midsized companies, but also from large companies. he will make at least three major deals. one of them with airbus planes and there will be a joint venture between the french carmaker peugeot and the iranian carmaker khodro. they will pro

moscow has banned imports of meat and milk from the eu, dragging down prices in the eu, because therely too much meat on the market. >> the russian embargo is really hurting us. after switzerland, the u.s., it was the third-largest market outside the eu. annual sales were some 1.8 billion yeareuros. that has now dropped by half. germany's food and agricultural minister believes the sector can still thrive. with an export offensive, the global market determining prices. >> that's why we have to adjust to the global market. >> that is easier said than done. across the world, prices fell last year. supply is high and demand is weaker, particularly in asia. so despite perfect presentations at this year's green week, some things are still leaving a bitter taste. ♪ >> that is it from me for today, this week, in fat. your next business update at the top of the hour. >> have a good weekend. it has been a somber weeks here in berlin. since the death of david bowie was announced on monday, we have been telling you about a special relationship with berlin. however the very zenith of his populari

i think life will he perfectly possible outside the eu. real issue is whether staying in the eu is going to commit britain more and more to edge closely to becoming a member of the eurozone. joe: we have to go. thank you for joining us. member of the u.k. house of lords. coming up, saudi arabia devaluing its currency? ♪ scarlet: i am scarlet. let's get to mark crumpton. mixed responses today after being snubbed by saudi arabia. iran says it regrets the attack by protesters on the saudi embassy in tehran and is telling the united nations that it wants to arrest those possible, but saudianian president says arabia cannot cover up crimes by cutting off relations. clericcution of a shiite infuriated iranians. top officials from denmark, sweden, and germany will hold talks in brussels tomorrow, concerned about new border control measures aimed at stopping refugees entering northern europe. sweden introduced id checks on all people traveling to denmark, and denmark tighten controls on its border with germany. federal authorities are keeping thei

saying and 35% chance that the you cable exit the eu but he also believes that the eu will strike a bargain is that the poll right now? i think it has gone up a little of it because of the tension. tom: there is a vote in the summer. francine: they will try to , then aate by february possible vote in the summer. tom: prime minister cameron said the first week of july would be perfect, we can all come over and do a brexit week. it is time for my morning must read and it is by george magnus. we were talking a little bit about china before the break, but when you look at the reserves and the fact that there is a very big chance that we will see further declines, what does that point us to? george: this is going to become more and more sensitive, this year. week, we had an announcement that china's foreign exchangers fell by about $410 billion. china runs a surplus on its payments plus its direct investment of about $650 billion. they lost $500 billion of reserve, that means they must of had capital outflows close to $1 trillion. some of it is because of poor investment return, so that is becau

barclays writes that in politics in the eu turn for the worst, it may reverse the eu exchange rate appreciation that appreciation has been fairly muted. we are talking about the fact that this would open a pandora's box and change the way that we would look at this story. i do not want to take sides here. i am not going to do that. but it is an interesting point. we have seen this time and time again through financial crises. london, the u.k. does become a safe haven. the argument coming out of brussels is you guys are in trouble. if you leave, you could be pointing across the channel and making the same argument. carney backed off with the bank of england, but a large part of this move is the concerns around the brexit. i'm going to bring back alexander dryden. part of that move has been the brexit risk. risk, does it actually become risk on sterling? alexander: it is hard in this stage of the game to work out which way the currency pair is going to go. still a lot of uncertainty over what will happen. it is president of for a company -- it is unprecedented for a country to be leaving an organ

even in the eu, we have problems. it is difficult for all of us.hat is why it makes these terror alerts so serious. ares not because terrorists so strong, it is because we are so weak. >> the question is whose interests are here? anymore have no idea what is happening east of turkey, for example. whose interests are there now? while, after a long-term , we have now war in the east of turkey. who is fighting against to? -- who is fighting against who? >> we have talked about turkey slipping slowly toward a state of effective low-level civil war. maybe that is what is happening. >> and what should western states do now? what should the eu do now if you want to have a good partner in this region? if you say turkey is the only partner you could have, you need to have a good plan, a political solution. i believe that we cannot do that without military intervention. >> you raise an important point talking about partners. turkey and germany have had a special relationship for a long large measure because of the large number of people living in germany wit

naomi: she has offered to revitalize the eu talks i alluded to earlier. there is talk of financial aid, some 3 billion euros on the table at the moment, and crucially, something that turkey probably once more than financial aid is international recognition and access to the european union through an easier visa system. sarah: naomi conrad in berlin, thank you. after this talks, chancellor angela merkel is visiting her own constituency. at her party's traditional new year's reception, she emphasized the importance of turkey and curving the flow of migrants to europe. she also thanked thousands of germans returning to help the recently arrived refugees. joining us, our guest standing by. fabi and, merkel under a lot of pressure over her open door policy, allowing refugees into germany, especially under pressure from her own party. what was the atmosphere like today? guest: it was the exact opposite. people stood up, clapped their hands, listen carefully, were very supportive of her. everybody was absolutely on her side. there were no reduces him's. and it i

accusing: of putting the rule of law at risk, reaching fundamental eu values. it's the first time they have lots such an investigation against a member state to >> i think the procedure will help us clarify what the procedure really is, and it will help us explain where our concerns are and help the polish authorities clarify with us how they are going to address these concerns. >> poland's new conservative government has come under fire for its recent reforms. people have taken to the streets into social media to express their concern. they worry that us string of measures implement by the government is aimed at strengthening the grip on the judiciary and the media. some say the brussels inquiry is warranted. >>: after 1989 has always depended on the media. so-called intervention signals. >> the intervention comes in several steps. if poland does not react to the warning from brussels, the eu could apply article seven for the first time ever. funds could be withdrawn and warsaw could openly face suspension of eu voting rights. brent: here's a look at some of t

we did argue that the eu should go further, we achieved a very aggressive package for the eu but that was the best we could do in the circumstances. britain is playing a major rule. let me bring one statistic. i asked the question the other day, what percentage of panels have been installed in britain since this government took office in 2010 expecting the answer might 50% or 60, the answer is 98%. >> thank you, mr. speaker. yesterday was announced at the cocktail housing zone to build thousands of new homes in the city. would the prime minister agree with me that the funding would reverse and enable struggling families to get on to the property ladder? >> i am delighted to hear about the development in his constituency. there's a lot more that needs to be done. sometimes it is specific bits of transport infrastructure or specific planning or disagreements between district councils that needs to be sorted out. we shouldn't forget the fact that developmenter and house builders would go ahead with house building if they believe it's a benign economic agreement with a strong environment

can the eu survived? the new year has finally begun and the eu is facing new crises.ore and more states are read imposing border controls. poland's new nationalist government is curtailing democratic freedoms. nationalists and eurosceptic

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peace keeper answer revolve around eu troops from the european union and french troops and they dateto 2014. both the eu troops and french troops were in central african republic in the case of the french troops they are still there, a mandate to protect people in the country that has been mired in sectarian violence. now let's talk about the french allegations first two children age seven and nine claim that they were sexually abused by french soldiers in 2014. the allegations are incredibly troubling, i will warn you right now. one of the children said that they were sexually abused by a french soldier in exchange for a bottle of water and a bag of cookies. and that child said it was a pattern by french soldiers there and now moving on to the other four allegations and they are against eu troops dating back to 2014, these are all girls ranging from 13-16, they also say they were either raped or were forced into sexual activity with troops in exchange for money. now the nationality of all of these troops in the eu case is not necessarily known, however, three of the alleged victims

in strasburg, she chided the eu for its investigation. she said the moves should not be labeled as a threat to democracy. her government has been criticized for reforms that allow more leeway in the appointment of state run media and high court justices. >> sitting here with a former member of the eu commission. thank you for coming. how worried are you about the situation in poland? >> i'm very worried. the independence of the judiciary is the basis of the rule of law and the rule of law is the basis of democracy. if they try to control the judiciary, things will go very badly. reporter: when you are commissioner for justice, you had to tackle similar situations or hungary. were you really lacking in a rule of law mechanism? is thatomething thareally works ois it just somethg, you know, anher thin oner? -- another thi on paper >> when we had similar problems with poland in hungary there was no mechanism at all. there has never been a light between europe and the rule of law, immigration in the member states, so i had to invent everything

he is anti-eu.dea, heought up the said do not be deluded into thinking that the traits get negotiated quickly, easily and to the bearer advantage. the reality of negotiations -- clear, thet me be business would like to see reform. we support the prime minister. by the way, i can tell you that aroundthe cbis, 28 europe on a want reform. he need to be competitive. we need the eurozone to be competitive. it is a market we can access. , toe is a huge alignment complete the single market, open services up more effectively, get the digital market working, reduce the regulation that irritates people read and by the way, is also unnecessary and unhelpful. it creates flexibility. those are huge. and i think we need, with whatever reforms the prime minister can gain, to get behind that. and to engage constructively within the european union and its institutions, which is a pragmatic country to do things over a period to improve this 500 million people market. and to get more trade treaties done, like with the

cabinet members across the eu have been meeting in amsterdam to find a way to stem the influx of these people with many pointing the finger at greece for not doing enough to secure its borders. reporter: the netherlands holes the rotating presidency of the european union and its shift of ministers in another attempt to veto the deal. most to arrive are headed to germany. the numbers are too high thomas is the interior ministers. he wants more solidarity from his colleagues. >> we need a lasting, noticeable, and sustainable reduction in refugees and we needed in the coming weeks. europe is taking the right steps but it is taking them too late. reporter: most refugees reach europe via the greek coast and continue on their journey to the northwest from there. some ministers they greek border controls are too lax and athens is not doing enough to register refugees properly. >> if we don't succeed in securing europe's external borders, then the border will shift to ward central europe. it is up to greece to act as quickly as possible to dictate more resources to the problem. reporter: austr

the migration issue could bring down the eu itself.ver one million refugees and others across the mediterranean hearts,to a closing of minds, and borders on the route from greece, italy, to richer countries to the north for most want to claim asylum. far from the european union, this is an illustration of how the european migrant crisis is leading to a sense of every country for itself. there is the talk of the closure en.scheng it is arguably the eu's biggest achievement, boosting travel and trade. the schengen agreement is not dead in the water yet. coulde rules that temporarily suspend free movement for up to two years. still, the bigger picture in germany and across europe is troubling. a huge public and political pressure is on angela merkel who is raised and prorated for opening her doors to refugees to reverse it. remains defiantly, some say desperately, positive. not becomed pessimistic too quickly. i believe we can manage. we must reduce the number of refugees, and we're working on that. >> how successfully? dutch-ridden greec

that if it is this myth you are not part of the eu, you cannot trade with it.oint is, we will still be able to trade with the eu. nothing will change. terms will change. it will have to be under most-favored-nation status. most of the eu's 1.7%. it is nothing compared to the fluctuations that you see on currency markets. businesses -- are businesses and investors shying away from u.k. assets? richard: we are far away from the vote that other people have is on their mind. you need to focus of global investors to be on this issue. and it will not be more than a month before this actual vote. , in we do get that close think we will see the sterling go lower. evaluation on equities in the u.k., will have to be marked down. richard could be right. we could have this free-trade agreement which leaves the economic relationship similar to what it is at the moment. no one knows that. neither does anyone else. afford uncertainty will a lower valuation thesis in the short-term. this is a much bigger longer-term decision than what happens over a couple of months in the mar

the eu requires mandatory radiation checks on food imports from fukushima and surrounding prefectures. but the european commission says it will ease that rule for goods if radiation levels have been within safe limits for a certain period of time. it says it will allow fukushima vegetables, beef and other meat products, all fruit except persimmon, buckwheat and tea. the change is likely to take effect on saturday. the japanese government will urge the eu to lift the rule for all remaining products. >>> this week "newsline" is airing a five-part series on the economic outlook for major markets. today we focus on europe. nhk world's ay asked an expert about the key issues facing the region's economy this year. >> reporter: hello, professor. nice to meet you. >> nice to meet you. >> reporter: he's an associate professor at the university of tokyo. he's also served as a senior economist at the international monetary fund where he focused on policies to address the european impact of the 2008 financial crisis. what is the key for the european economy this year? >> one of the main things is

the eu governments are talking about getting more. has been no let up in the number of refugees crossing from turkey into the eu. there is almost 2 million refugees and asylum-seekers in turkey. the head of the dutch freedom party says it's time for the netherlands to lead the european union. he says he will pull the country out of the eu immediately next year if he is elected prime minister. his prey the polls with what it bordersclose to dutch for the refugees the searches of the people missing when to marine helicopters collided off the coast of oahu. the helicopters went down late last night. they spotted debris and searchers are being hampered by high waves. d by her 2400gggbal journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. betty: thank you. europe isg story in the markets. 600 is down to the 1%. growth and -- is down to the 1% 21 percent. thanks for joining us. the red ask you about ic on my screen today. market your take on the villains in 2016? >> across the board, this is a classic time when we have to look for t

there will be an eu referendum at some point.hard to imagine the bank of england hiking a few weeks before such a key vote. absolutely, the timing for that matters. mark: have you got any sort of pricing mechanisms on how an halt the economy? affair ifom and gloom the u.k. votes to exit the eu? we don't have any special models that tell us how it is going to be. it goes that way of really tricky to work out. my guess is it would be serious trading fallout because ties may have to change. out, that we vote it would be serious economic fallout. from its highs? that's a big deal, isn't it? slow, bute growth is that is going to push wage growth. i think the bank of england is we can do a couple of years in a while but right now we need wage growth. november. a big interview coming up. .etty: indeed the president and ceo of the u.s. chamber of commerce, tom donohue, joining us to talk about politics and what he's looking for in this election cycle and breaking the gridlock in washington. ♪ betty: welcome back to bloomberg markets, liv

does leave the eu.you think we will be seeing prime minister cameron, yourself, and other cabinet members going to brussels more, to get assurance that we will get some kind of trade agreement? >> the prime minister has been clear on this. reform, and getting if he gets his reform, to campaign for britain to stay in a reformed european union. i think he's set out very clearly his message and goals. francine: thank you so much for joining us. we have plenty of interviews coming up. kuroda be talking to mr. , the japanese central bank governor. this is day three of the world economic forum. we will be talking on the nymex and strength or no strength in yen. ♪ francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live from davos. it has been a very busy morning. of course, coming up, it's even more busy. it's "surveillance." we talked to a lot of business leaders. we spoke to the french finance minister. we had george osborne. we are going to put all of these questions to our guests. tom: there's a synthesis of the market

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we argued that the eu should go further.ed, i think, a very aggressive package for the eu, but that was the best we could do in the circumstances. i think the eu agreement helped to bring about the general agreement. no one should be in any doubt that britain is playing a very major role in bringing that about. let me give you one statistic. i know there is a great deal of interest in the house about solar panels. i asked what percentage of solar panels had been installed in britain since this government took office in 2010. expecting the answer to be 50% or 60%. the answer is 98%. ben howlett: yesterday, it was announced that the foxhill housing zone in bath would receive £313,000 of government funding to help to kick-start work to build thousands of new homes in the city. would the prime minister agree that that funding will help to reverse the lack of house-building under the labour party and enable struggling families to get on to the property ladder? prime minister cameron: i am delighted to hear about the development i

been impacting several cities and british citizens that doesn't earn 18,600 pounds cannot bring non eu husband or wife to live in >> armstrong: is that unreasonable? >> no. >> you wouldn't want to be a burden of the state. old rules absolutely underlined that. this is not about not being a burden to the state. this is about earning a threshold almost half our country do not earn, 18,600 pounds in the uk is not a salary 47% of this country cannot afford to bring foreign spouse into the country. would you want to choose exile or living with your spouse? we have to be careful how we package what we are doing, rhetoric, our policies and what is the impact on the british values we advocate? we have a humanitarian crisis. >> armstrong: we are here to learn, hopefully when we come we'll see, we'll be back. >> armstrong: we have a deep connection, richard, this is an education. final thoughts? >> i think it has been an education for me listening to the statistics we talked about about today. highly complicated problem. this is not a problem that is going to go away. it is not a problem fixed e

all these migrant communities and i think this is the danger, we are losing all of this and with the eu referendum coming, immigration front and center of that debatete this is going to b bcome a very, very nasty element of the wider discussion with the european union. >> armstrong: how can you say the uk has a bias against people who are brown skin when you look at the people of the uk, the extending g eir homes, community, to make sure people have a better way of life. >> i don't say that about british people at all. i am one of those. we have a culture of welcoming people, fair play of tolerance. what we are talking about are several complicatedssues all converging together. we have a political agenda that is trying to cut migration. we have seen it over the last five years we are putting in place policies to reduce numbers. that doesn't work. net migration has increased. that doeoe't work. that is demand and supply and free movement. we are an interconnected global world. as a result we have policies in place that have been impacting citizens that doesn't earn 18,600 pounds cannot b

leaving the eu, because we just don't know.there a taste that the city would thrive outside the eu? , i think for the city and the british economy to thrive outside the eu, you probably have to have a massive program of deregulation. you have to cut your tariffs, you have to decide to pursue very radical free-market policies. would any government really be prepared to do that? but yes, there is a case for saying that. what is difficult to discern is how much of the overregulation of the financial sector is due to the eu, and how much is by our own authority. it's not easy to know that. francine: andrew, it's difficult to know, but it seems that a lot of our guests say if the u.k. itre to leave the eu, is towns negative or is it supportive of the pound? >> i think the short-term it is probably negative for sterling, because of the foreign direct investment and the benefit the u.k. manufacturing enjoys with unfettered access to the rest of europe. i think the short-term reaction is a weaker pound, but there is speculation that wi