. >> rose: we conclude this evening with the ian bremmer of to eurasia group opened list of 13 risks they see for 2013. >> the risks around iran is not we are going to blow them up, the risk is there is a shadow war going on, here remember the date with romney and obama, romney said that because of obama, the iranians are four years closer to nuclear weapons that is hogwash. >> think of what we have done to the iranian regime, to slow them down, not just the sanctions but the shadow war and cyber attacks, clea clearly we are slg them and that matters and also has the potential for the iron jabs to do something back. >> rose: the lance armstrong story with coyle, macur and david epstein and sally jenkins. >> plus ian bremmer on the international risks for 2013 when we continue. >> funding for charlie rose was provided by the following. mye-e captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> rose: lance armstrong by any measure was widely known as the king of cycling but the career of this seven-time tour de france winner has been m

communist empire in eurasia much quicker and with much less disastrous collateral effects but if you want to see a way to predict the collapse of the soviet union did it well you know you really understand history isn't so fine and you know these things they did however believe it would stress that so the soviet union and that not to be true the fact that it broke the soviet union was a welcome one for you that's one theory ok go ahead lawrence look. well i mean i hate to be simplistic about this but every country has its rules it's low rise and i think that what's doable here is to produce some sort of rights do you think most of. these countries have. pressured. haven't they don't have whatever agency that they have or do have we have to act within the rules of law and to make that a voting issue to make it an issue in the elections i think is a do both thing it's not easy so when you don't have a person they're going to assume ok jacob go ahead jump in well you know very good he gave us the last words just go jake up. well i found it interesting that paul goes back to the o.s.'s i

we talk global market risks, with the eurasia group's ian bremmer. while washington lawmakers finally reached a deal on the tax part of the fiscal cliff, tonight's commentator says something is missing from the solution: clarity. here's simon constable, columnist at the wall street journal. >> if the shenanigans in congress at year end have taught us anything it's that washington just cant help but do stupid things. while the tax situation for many americans may now have been solved, the problem of spending cuts hasn't. that's bad in itself, not getting an important job done, but it's also actually harmful to the u.s. economy. not solving it has increased what economists call policy uncertainty. broadly speaking that's ambiguity around what the government is going to do with laws etc. when uncertainty is high, businesses, the real drivers of job growth in the economy, tend to invest in fewer factories and hire fewer people. despite congress managing to avoid the fiscal cliff, uncertainty in the u.s. is still elevated. how do we know? the smart people

single handedly brought about the most significant change for large numbers of people all over the eurasia group consultancy firm place the russian president only second on its list reserving first place for a world. wide range of global issues. says no person has consolidated more domestic and regional power. following the russian leader in the rating. or isolated today. william binney u.s. national security agency whistleblower what about the ways the american government is spying on its citizens for now a quick. f.b.i. has access to the data collected which is basically the emails of virtually everybody in the country. and they have the f.b.i. has access to it all the congressional members on the surveillance to no one's excluded they're all included so yes this can happen. to anyone if they become a target for whatever reason. if they are targeted by the government the government can go in with the f.b.i. or other agencies of the government can go into their database pull all that data they've collected over them on them over the years and reanalyze it also retroactively analyze everyt

it was the international political think tank eurasia group that came up with a list of the world's most powerful individuals with a russian president at the top of that list then they decided no they couldn't leave him there so they put mr nobody at the top of their list so why they would put in a second to mr or mrs nobody you know according to this think tank and to the foreign policy magazine that published the list authors explained that they left the top position empty because the modern world has no clear leader they said they also said that they based their choice of names on that list on the individual's ability to single handedly quote bring about change that significantly affect the lives and fortunes of large numbers of people of the russian president followed by u.s. federal reserve chairman ben bernanke or the influence the organization has on the u.s. economy and by extension on the global economy german chancellor angela merkel for policies that are quote the glue that binds a europe and us president barack obama he ranks the fifth on the list and then you have the head o

. >> siberia and eurasia and part of canada, it gets warmer than what we saw in the past from the computer model. >>. one degree warmer, or did you say one degree warmer. that does not sound like much, does it? >> it does not sound much, but this is averaged over many years. in that sense it is very significant. >> what does this mean for the global climate in the long run? >> we actually looked at this, and in terms of global temperature it does not change much. globally it is not significant, but the point is on the original continental scale, they are significant. somewhere in the fall is slightly colder in north america, so they have changed the seasonality of the weather. >> you use computer models for the study. how accurately can you predict climate change, which is so unpredictable? >> let me point this out. computer models have deficiencies. we know that. many models in the past have been ever -- have been able to simulate the temperatures. we have been able to determine climate change. >> what do you say to skeptics who say climate change has happened naturally before and that hu

also ian bremer, the president of the eurasia group, a global risk consulting firm. welcome all. so the first one i want to talk about is assad. you thought last year he would have fallen by now. most people did. it looks like a better prediction this year, but it seems as though it's even conceivable that he could wait out 2013 or no? >> no, i don't think so. i would say he hasn't fallen yet, but we're now into the end game where it's clear he's going to fall and just a question of how long, not just we're predicting, we want him out, but he really is on his way out. i don't think there is any way he will survive 2013, but i'm not convinced there will be a government to replace him by the end of 2013. >> why has he stayed there as long? i was more skeptical that he would fall quickly and the reason was simple. the syrians have a great army, a very strong army, and they have been incredibly brutal in their willingness to use it against the rebels. >> that's part of it. it's a real state. this is not like -- this is a real state but look what happened to the sunnis in iraq. they t

magellan, a malaysian man known as enrique the magellan took because he would give information about eurasia. so he runs away from home so he would have gone all the way westward to get home. the captive circumnavigate remains a stock character until the mid point of the eighteenth century when european stopped picking people for information against their will. there still are a lot of people who go around world probably not voluntarily. the first global health mission, a vaccination campaign. the spanish sent the ship around world dispensing vaccine from orphans, they take a long orphans as human incubators for these children, did not make a decision that that is the way they want to see the world. glamorous idea but a lot of people are still doing this by the end of the 18th-century not so glamorous. the last captive circumnavigate results interesting. this would be the soviet dog i lai laika. the first living creature to orbit the world, not her choice and sent to her death. there was no recovery plan. that practice stopped after international outcry about doing this even to a dog. that i