bremmer of eurasia group.dy of malaysia airlines, we dip into the finances of the air carrier. financials.rlines's good morning, it is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance," i am tom keene. our guest host -- ian bremmer of eurasia group and michael fertik with reputation.com. smart discussion being had this morning. let's go to a smart set of top headlines with adam johnson. >> the search area for the missing malaysia airlines jet has shifted to the northeast after radar data shows the plane was traveling faster than estimated and traveled a short distance than previously thought. the new areas closer to land, allowing planes to spend more time searching for the aircraft. a milestone for obama care, more than 6 million people signed up for health plans under the affordable care act, meeting the .stimate from the cbo the program has seen a surge of applicants ahead of the march 31 deadline for americans to start the enrollment process. new jersey governor chris christie

keeping cooperation that reading the comics peters also aspects of integration and cooperation in eurasia or touched upon during a conversation in particular the presses of preparation of the supreme your economic council session was discussed in addition the two leaders exchanged views on the results of the recent nuclear security summit in the hague. so i'm acting like they're putting note to complete me to understanding in all areas of bilateral cooperation. it is the largest it just doesn't stand in the southern city should be as developed as the captaincy to rest on the president of the magnitude of anything social and economic development of the international airport in global financial centers ranks of watches the fifty eight fifty and warsaw copenhagen madrid and pride fifty thousand jobs and creating the market last year cr economic industrial zones and tourism are indicated as the drivers of development allowed to host the immediacy and in two thousand seventeen it says he also submitted a bid to host the winter and

all of these challenges are detailed in a 2,014 report by eurasia group. eurasia's president and founder joins me now. thank you for being with us. let's start first of all with china. it's inevitable. countries and regions that have grown at more than 10% for decades, it always ends. are we seeing the end of the big growth in china? >> we're seeing the end of the period of state fixed investment and infrastructure driving the fast majority of the growth. this is real economic reform happening. it's transforming that society towards being more focused on consumption. that is very important to do. it's absolutely critical if they want to become an advanced economy over time but it's also dangerous because it means taking money away from inefficient state-owned enterprises. it means taking control away from the financial sector, allowing bankruptcies. which means people who are very powerful will become losers. so far first year in power the president of china has done a fantastic job and there has been relatively little pushback, but you're going to see pol

. >> reporter: willis sparks is an analyst with the eurasia group, a leading global consulting firm. >> the europeans don't want a direct confrontation with the russians because europe draws 28% of its natural gas from russia. >> reporter: two-third of that gas travels in pipelines through ukraine. germany gets 38% of its gas from russia, italy 22%, france 18. the u.s. has little economic leverage, only 2% of its trade is with russia. but sparks says the west's most effective move is to pump billions in economic aid into the new government in kiev, which is close to default. >> it's not about sanctions. it's not about punishing russia. it's about helping the ukrainian government because, frankly, that's what the russians are really worried about. >> reporter: the russians want ukraine to be part of their own uration union air, kind of reconstituted soviet union. but you still think putin has miscalculated here. >> i do think he's miscalculatedded. the idea that the russians are going to win ukrainian heartses and minds any time for the foreseeable future is pretty much out of the que

i don't think russia can really conceive of this part of eurasia being this part of slavic courts.it is hard for vladimir putin to think of central eurasia with without that kind of partnership. >> very quickly you say it's not going to happen? >> well, i think that they -- i think that his forces can help support ethnic russians who want to take control of that autonomous republic, absolutely. how long they can do that, how long they can stay there and get that i can't say, they can't stay there forever. it is part of ukraine. unless russia has the plans to incorporate ukraine, i don't think -- i think putin is angry, i think he's humiliated and i think the ethnic russians who supported yanukovych feel the same way. >> interesting, thoams thomas n, thank you. >> thank you for having me. >> we'll have a live report from one of the hardest hit areas in california. >>> plus cold comfort. freezing temperatures are taking a tolling on heating bills and why costs are going up, up, up. >> now to the west coast. california's drought is giving way to relentless downpour. our akiko fujita i

. >> we put those in red, the eurasia union. countries here kazakhstan, russia and belarus. and we talked about how he's pulling kyrgyzstan closer. they're not in it yet, but they're coming closer. >> he's putting a lot of pressure on it. armenia had an association agreement with the eu. after three and a half hours in moscow, putin said we're going to go with the eurasia union. >> you made a good point, this is not a nice kind invitation. there's diplomatic pressure, there's financial pressure. >> but the key to making this work is ukraine, with ukraine because of its historical ties to russia, because of its industry, because of its population, with ukraine, this begins to look like a condensing empire. without it, it's still a bit player, it's never going to rival the west. >> i learned a word today in slavic languages, that ukraine or ukrine means buffer. in the language that the general told me earlier. it is a buffer, literally and figuratively, this gives them a buffer against all these nato allies here? >> he would like

and uniting eurasia, than the g-8. and nato has been in russia's face for many years.s a big insult to russia. i'm not saying it's right or wrong. but that's exactly how they feel. >>> there's another emerging market to worry about. that's china. the yuan which has been considered a safe one-way bet is coming off its largest weekly move against the dollar since 2010. it's expected to be a topic at the people's conference meeting in beijing. larry mcdonald, following what's at stake here. he's the senior director at new edge. great to have you with us. >> hello, michelle. >> it's melissa. >> you think of trades unwinding and how much has been put long the trade as opposed to short. and also, the structure products. structured around this one directional trade, which had been a one-direction trade. >> you think about it, when a central bank, in the fastest growing economy of the world is trying to slow that economy down and trying to actually cut down on speculation, it's a dangerous, almost unprecedented in the world. they're trying to slow down speculation. there's a l

joining us are hanna foburn, the eurasia. and the european program director for the international renaissance station. professor of international relations and government at georgetown university, author of "odessa: genius in death in a city of dreams." professor, couldn't we call this maps of ukraine over many, many centuries and there is not one of them that has the crimea included in what is traditionally ukrainian lands. why is it? >> traditionally ukrainian lands are, traditionally russian lands. part was an empire before the bolshevik revolution. in 1974, there was an agreement that the sovereignty of crimea or the control of crimea from the russian component to the ukrainian component. at the time, that was an internal administrative issue. it had no status in the international system. when ukraine became independent in 1991, the borders that had got when the borders the soph yes, it is had given it and that included crimea. >> like giving it? >> in a way, yes. >> and as important a place in, in the russians' own histo

. >> thank you for being with us, ian bremer, president and founder of eurasia group. >> two settlelets for bank of america. they'll pay 9.3 billion for fanny may and freddy mack in selling faulting with bonds in the run up to the housing collapse, larger than jpmorgan's $1.3 billion. the other, holding a c.e.o. accountable. former c.e.o. will pay $10 million because of his role in the acquisition of merrill lynch. that saved merrill from bankruptcy, but louis and his team allegedly misled shareholders to approved the $50 million buyout. next the double edge sword that is america's job boom, but created problems. >> in cities like new york you have layers of pipeline from water, to electric. it makes it expensive to remove and replace natural gas lines. nor on the gas lines. later - the tragedy that changed the work place. i'm talking about laws that keep you healthy on the job. coming up in "real money". >> america's energy boom is having a profound effect on the economy. millions of jobs are being created. we have more evidence from the census bureau, showing employment in the oil and

and russian response to crimea with: cliff kupchan, head of the russia and eurasia team at the eurasia group, a political risk consulting firm. he served in the state department during the clinton administration. and nikolas gvosdev is professor of national security studies at the u.s. naval war college. he's written extensively about russia. clif kupchan, you've had the vote in crimea, the reaction from the e.u. and the united states. wherwhere does this crisis stand right now? >> it stands at a standoff. the u.s. took dramatically sanctions against russia sanctioning the russian speaker of the upper house, really something i never thought i would see. the next shoe to fall is tomorrow when vladimir putin will likely annex -- or support annexation of crimea. that, indeed, will lead to stronger sanctions over time from both the u.s. and the e.u. someone will have to hit the offramp or we'll be back to something like the cold war. >> woodruff: nikolas gvosdev, is that what you see, a stair step situation where every so days the tensions are ramped up? >> we definitely have a stealmate a

. >> lauren goodrich, agreed conversation, senior eurasia analyst at stratfor. >> crunch time for obamacare enrolment. sign up in the next two weeks or face a fine. we'll look at why a lot of americans have not enrolled and say they don't plan to. later, riding out a tough job market at home. young americans living with mum and dad instead of moving out. those stories and more as real continues. keep it here. c.b.s.'s leave and stop selling cigarette. they have been written to, pointing to contradictions to having tobacco product in stores with stuff prescribed by doctors. c.b.c. announced a tobacco disallow, the others are so far not interested. >> two weeks from today open enrolment for obamacare ends. a third of the uninsured man to stay that way. that's 53 million people. david ariosto dug into the figure. >> money, that's the reason most cite. 41% say the coverage is expensive. the reason is ignorance of the facts. 70% of those surveyed were not aware they could be eligible for subsidies to lower the cost. >> it's shocking that this late in the day there's a wide knowledge gap about th

keeping cooperation in trade and economic spheres also aspects of integration and cooperation in eurasia or touched upon during a conversation in particular the prices of preparation of the supreme your economic council session was discussed in addition the two leaders exchanged views on the results of the recent nuclear security summit in the hague. so i'm acting like they're putting the look of

>> well, it's part of eurasia but part of eastern europe and the former soviet bloc. it's basically robin to russia's batman. and the challenge here, the challenge here is to try to attract it to the west, to get it to flip sides. >> so the rebels in the streets what are they fighting for. >> they're fighting for a better future. >> stephen: that sounds leak a political speech, what really -- >> countries have to develop over time. and ukraine basically after the end of the soviet union faced two tracks, it could stay as a stagnant, corrupt, authoritarian country tied to russia or it could essentially join the west. it commod earnize, liberalize, become a democracy. at the last minute when it looked like it was going to trade up permits, abusive relationship with its boyfriend from the hood to a nice upie-- . >> stephen: you're not loading these choices in anyway whatsoever. >> it's actually truth. when it looked like it would trade up to a better environment, at the last minute putin offered a bribe. >> stephen: how much. >> $15 billion. >> stephen: that's a lot of c

keeping cooperation that reading the comics peters also aspects of integration and cooperation in eurasia or touched upon during a conversation in particular the presses of preparation of the supreme your economic council session was discussed in addition the two leaders exchanged views on the results of the recent nuclear security summit in the hague. so i'm acting like they're putting note to complete me to understanding

considered discussion on the draft agreement will continue in moscow in a meeting of the supreme eurasia and the council at the level of the heads of states. that is to create a single business infrastructure with the bases for the program. the minister of regional develop bought the genre ship reported that the new alliance would all support centers and for your service centers coming up in your service centers operating in seventy major cities as entrepreneurship support centers open and twenty seven single industrial towns and most of that work in all fourteen regions according to the minister the single business infrastructure will increase the possibility of the economically active population in obtaining information and consultation for an opening in conducting the business. meanwhile more than one hundred and thirty two million saying it has been located for the business world map program from two thousand and two two thousand thirteen. almost seventy thousand afternoons was supported by the state in about two hundred and thirty thousand jobs were created all our generation report

we will talk to eurasia analyst about the possible conduct -- outcomes in ukraine. you're watching "bottom line." ♪ >> we continue our focus on the unrest in the ukraine. our next guest says that sanctions against russia will be effective if europe is not aboard. -- any effective if europe is not on board. she joins us now from austin, texas. welcome to "bottom line." thank you for your time. >> thank you so much. >> what is vladimir putin up to? what are his motives? is he trying to provoke a confrontation? >> no. at this time rushes to staking its claim on a country it believes is territorially imperative to brush up on security overall -- russia's security overall. handlennot economically a territory, and the number of people that are in the ukraine to be integrated into russia. it does not what ukraine to be a part of the west. nt a just think it is imperative russia -- to russia. >> if they do not what the ukraine to be part of the west, does not therefore mean by definition, that russia does not integrity ande's the right of its people to chart their own pat?

coming up in the next hour, we will speak with ian bremmer on russia and ukraine on the eurasia groupis "bloomberg surveillance." russia is tossed out of the g8. the ruble strengthens. those the g7 agree to disagree on sanctions? the nsa will stop widespread collection of phone data. if they will continue to search for terrorist. mainstream tv, a very big deal. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live from world headquarters in new york. it is tuesday, march 25. i'm tom keene. joining me, scarlet fu. adam johnson decided to return from aspen. my guest host, gary shapiro, president and ceo of the consumer electronics association associated with the most i enormous las vegas convention ever. have you been to what? let's know, but i think we should lobby to do the show from their next year. is what wehis learned. the pace of migration of rural chinese to the cities set to slow in the coming years. deepening economic concerns. economic data here in the u.s., 9:00, the case schiller home price index. of items.umber consumer confidence, richmond fed manufacturing survey and new home s

we will have that conversation with a guest from eurasia later on, as well. >> we're looking forward program. watcht, the most viable in the world? we will reveal the price tag. >> welcome back. here companies on the move. an immature racecar driver and his father over control of a facebook page. the car claims it infringes on copyrights. facebook rules so that they can make fan pages and do not have to claim to speak for the company. a civil lawsuit commands millions of dollars for hours of work. or saysemerald reduce that they are scouring for assets in columbia. dropare looking to hold a in investments. that they will move to columbia no one may find the right asset. making an appearance at this this year. a luxury jeweler is introducing a hallucination watch. it is the most viable watch ever made. create something extraordinary. collected extraordinarily rare colored diamonds. and over carats of its 50% of its is between two and three carats. it is a collection of diamonds that happens to be put together fors it is very possible them to be the best of the best. the diamond market

at the institute i co-direct a program on new approaches to research and security in eurasia. it is a network of about a hundred scholars on russian and post-soviet affairs and includes experts from north america, russia, ukraine, other post-soviet states, and europe. the program is supported by the carnegie corporation of new york, macarthur foundation, and george washington university. we have been transfixed by the russian government's audacious invasion and annexation of crimea in ukraine. much of the conversation has concerned the response of the international community, the united states and the european union, and rightly so. as well, the effectiveness of that response, and also there has been much discussion concerning the impact of russian actions on their future role in the region and its global status. we will address all these issues in our q and a and in our discussion as well. first, we would like to take some time to discuss the implications of this crisis on ukraine. we are fortunate to have several of our colleagues from ukraine in town for a conference. we ha

the other is building the projects in eurasia, how do you commit to khazakhstan, belarus, and say "we'll have rule of law, a regional administration in which russia abides by a preestablished set of standard. it will be difficult for russia to assure the former soviet satellites that it's, in fact, a rural-based power. >> do you expect russia to do assist more radical. cut off of the supplies to europe. are these things that are real possibilities? >> it's on the table. tut-tutting off gas lines is on the table if the sanctions are strong. that's on the table. going in the ukraine is on the table. if you are vladimir putin, you have to - if you are the russian government you have to think about the end game. you have to be thinking about what happened the day after tomorrow. they are the tough questions. there's a lot - we haven't seen china, russia says "we like the move." 70% of russian gas exports come from european sales. they are more important to russia. >> you don't think he'll cut off the gas. >> i don't want to predict what they'll do. i think they'll try to find a way to refall

ian bremmer with eurasia group. we will talk about the historical perspective.9/11.ack and then how purred some a he will join us -- and then dan hal pert will join us. ukraine,y weighting to crimea, the news flow from madame christine lagarde and then the market reaction as well. headline thater caught my eye, ryan chilcott russians forming a company to build a bridge that would link the crimea back to russia. so, maybe some long-term thinking beginning to come into play. that would certainly be a very dramatic indication for the long-term. >> that's right. >> tom, we look forward to the show. great guest lined up before today. w.a.r. analysis coming up on the ongoing situation in ukraine -- a more analysis coming up. an american skier leaping to the top of the moguls in the out ofle after crashing the singles. she came back in a dual event. this taking part in japan. battering.ee slopestyle continuing in switzerland. ld.tria taking goa pretty amazing conditions this weekend. thick fog and really icy cold. from one temperature extreme to ain, lewisin bahr hamil

rohrabacher , chairman of the foreign affairs subcommittee on europe,ure asia, and meerging threats -- eurasia, and emerging threats. the speaker pro tempore: the gentleman from california, mr. rohrabacher, is recognized for three minutes. mr. rohrabacher: mr. speaker, i rise in opposition to this legislation, and i realize that i am a lone voice, or almost a lone voice in this discussion today. i see this legislation as a bipartisan green light to reigniting the cold war. unfortunately, many of my friends and colleagues, both colleagues today and my friends from the time when i spent in the reagan white house, seven years, many of these people feel that the cold war is not over. that it never did end. they are more comfortable with that -- with treating russia as if it was still under communist rule. well, putin is not a communist leader. putin is a nationalist who loves his country. and he's looking out for the national interest of his country. for us to try to demonize him and try to suggest that he is doing this like he did in the cold war, and k.g.b.,ets, is not doing the cause of peace a

i am joined by the president of eurasia group, and the author of "soviet fÊtes and lost alternatives,from stalinism to the new cold war." and from washington, a professor at columbia university and senior fellow at the council on foreign relations. i am pleased to have each of them on this program. give me a snapshot of where we are today. we just heard from the president. we had the response from russia. >> where we are today is that the administration is trying to show that the first list of measures that it announced on monday -- a few -- a rather small number of people, not particularly closely related to putin were given visa bans. today, they are trying to show they are much more serious about it. they have announced a number of measures expanding the number of individuals who are sanctioned, giving the president the authority to target sections of the russian economy, and looking forward to meetings next week in europe, when the president will be working with other members of the g7 to formulate a broader response. broadly speaking, this is a step forward in which the american

let's bring in the director of the eurasia demack rattive initiative, strengthening ties between post soviet countries and the west. i want to get personal with you, because you have family in eastern ukraine. have you been in touch with them? what are their thoughts about the developments? >> i'm in hourly contact with them, my brother, my mother have been concerned. the situation seems to be spiralling out of the control. there are squirmishes in my home town and several deaths in the last two days of this conflict. >> they are from donetsk, we a seen in the news. >> exactly, from donetsk. i'm trying my best to keep them calm. the situation does not warrant calmness. >> what are they afraid will happen? >> they are afraid short of an invasion by russia, and russia, as we speak, is massing large reinforcements outside of borders of ukraine, that the squirmishes will lead to a complete disorder in the city. a complete massive unrest that could result in all sorts of kallamity. >> when you talk about kallamity, it's demonstrators storming buildings, fights in the town square. they are

. >>> let's bring in the director of the eurasia democracy initiative. us live from new york. peter, so i'm sure you have heard the talk of sanctions on behalf of some nato countries in the european union, but the united states itself has announced visa bans on targeted russians and ukrainians and president obama also authorizing freezing assets, so why is the u.s. taking a harder position than the european countries? >> well, you have to understand that president obama has been facing calls from members of both parties, his -- the democrat party and republicans who have been criticizing obama for wishy washy stance with regard to syria before, and now with regard to ukraine. no doubt they are wishing to score political points against president obama, but he is under a lot of pressure to show a strong hand against russia, which is something that europeans are not facing. >> so what you are saying is obama is making such statements just because he is bowing down to domestic pollty pressure in the united states? >> i lost sound -- >> what you are saying, t

this is not part of the eurasia vision and this is a tactical response. do not think you know the endgame is. it does make him vulnerable to the kinds of pressures that will do my colleagues were talking about, particularly on the economic site for us. the ukrainians will decide on the more security part what the cost will be for this occupation. >> a column today -- russia's mistake was that which you basically start by putting napoleon to have had cautioned during an 1805 battle. when the enemy is making movement, we must agree to not interrupt him. that is true, what should we do? >> the russians were surprised that yanukovych fled, they had to assemble a policy on the run. him and i know whether he wants to annex crimea and proceed to eastern europe ain't. union. putin is and have a cigar ally in the world. he can intimidate and tried to intimidate ukraine and intimidate our media, but we have got nato. we had 28 countries, to north america, 26 in europe that all should be here. we could isolate him to magically come over the long run, i would say tha

singh is the deputy assistant secretary for europe and eurasia at the u.s. department of the treasury. he advises the leadership at the department of the treasury and the white house on global markets. and without objection, the witnesses full prepared statements are going to be part of the record. i'm going to encourage you all to summarize and use your time to present your viewpoints. afterwards, the members will have five calendar days to submit statements and questions and materials for the record. without objection, as member offices were notified last night, in light of our time constraint, mr. engel and i are suggesting we limit to three minutes per member to help maximize participation of all the members this morning. if i could now go to our ranking member, mr. engel, whose family is originally from the ukraine, mr. engel from new york. >> thank you very much, mr. chairman. deputy assistant rubinrubin. thank you for appearing before the committee today. and for your tireless efforts in support of ukraine. on an issue that is in the forefront of all

if he could just get his hands on middle eastern oil, vladimir putin, and deliver it to eurasia, he could gain control, even russia isn't as strong as we think. when i hear about the cards and obama saying there will be costs, could you walk us through, what cards does the united states have to play? >> well, what's increasingly clear is that not only does the u.s. not have many cards because they are not willing to use certain cards, but the u.n. doesn't have any cards because russia sits on the security council. they brought it up, but even a security council resolution on ukraine and any potential move by russia to the ukraine would be vetoed by russians on the security council. then you also have nato. again, the defense ministers of all 28 countries were meeting, and there was no solid statement out of there about what they would do if russia moved troops into ukraine. >> thank you so much from the pentagon. thank you, jennifer. we'll bring it back out here. bob, you were getting very worked up. >> my only point about what jennifer said about the nato mibs meeting. nato has no respon

russia is the eurasia nation by the finnish and the ukraine is this swing nation at the heart of eurasia. for the us for nato and for certain european nations not all of them there is a lot of divergence in brussels as well it's absolutely essential to as they put it ukraine for the west so this is why in their it think it's an either or operation either they are with us or they are going to be gobbled up by russia it's not reality the reality is that ukraine is split into roughly western ukraine is more westernized in eastern ukraine. emotionally politically economically industrially is linked to russia so i have d.n.b. we should have a government of national union in fact trying to steer a crane into the future after all why do we had which was the real old of an orange revolution which by the way even if it goes on it's going to fail just like the first one failed when we have i.m.f. a structural adjustment add that it's not going to happen because goodness the people who are in power at the moment they aren't agonizing eastern ukraine south south and russia at the same time so obviou

the only powerful leader in eurasia right now, the only leader is a horrible, horrible man named vladimir putin. and the west has no leader, because the president of the united states, except rhetorically, is absent without leave. obama has no idea on earth what to do. >> colonel peters, thank you very much. it is a grim picture and we have a lot more to talk about on this international crisis including breaking news on the pentagon on how the united states is planning to react. we'll see what colonel peters thinks of that. plus this. >>> a big vote this week on the doj nomination of a man who defended a cop killer. tonight, that policeman's widow on her fight to keep his nomination from happening. >>> and new developments in the irs targeting of conservative groups. the co-founder of one of those groups joins us live next. why she believes something bad and corrupt is still going on. >> when the people are afraid of an agency and they see the agency as a bunch of bullies who abused power, the trust is shattered. our clients need a lot of attention. there's unlimited talk and text. we're

joining me is ian bremmer, president of eurasia group, and stephen cohen, president, and stephen sestanovich. he wrote the world from triewm ton obama. pleased to have both of you. we just heard from the president and then we have the response from russia. >> well, where we are today is that the administration is it trying to show that the first list of measures that it announced on monday, a few rather small number of people not particularly closely related to putin were given visa bands. today they're trying to show they're really much more serious about it and they've announce add number of measurers expanding the number of individuals who are sanctioned, giving the president authority to introduce new measurers against targeted sectors of the russian economy, and looking forward to meetings next week in europe where the president will be meeting with other members of the g7 to formulate a broader response. generally speaking this is a step forward where the american government is kind of getting its act together showing it is taking this crisis seriously and is not being deflected by con

daleep singh is the deputy assistant secretary for europe and eurasia. he advises that his senior economic leadership of the department of treasury at the white house on global markets. and without objection the witnesses full prepared statements are going to be part of the record. i will encourage you all to summarize and use your time to present your viewpoints and afterwards the members will have five calendar days to submit statements and questions and any extraneous materials for the record. as member offices were notified last night in light of our time we are suggesting we limit to three minutes per member to maximize participation this morning. if i could go to our ranking member mr. engel his family is originally from the ukraine mr. eliot engel from new york. >> thank you very much mr. chairman. administrator alexander deputy assistant secretary singh thank you for appearing before the committee today and your tireless efforts in the last couple of months in your support of ukraine and let me thank chairman of royce for holding this hearing on

we're, again, joined here by ian bremmer, president of the eurasia group. what do you think the main headline was? >> instead of a speech on the world order, it was a speech on democracy and values. it was not a pivotal speech. it was a speech that starts to shift the way america talks about itself and internationally. a lot more responsibility without being the policeman. you know, i thought it was interesting in the sense that he really tried to move away from american exceptionalism. a lot of modesty on the united states doesn't always get it right, doesn't get international law right, all the rest, but this, what putin has done is beyond the pale and we need to hit him hard. having said that, that engagement was surrounded by ten minutes on the outside of history and marshall plan -- >> from world war i to nelson mandela. >> and at the end, too. i don't think you'll come out of this speech over next few days and say, aha, now we know where it's going. for me, the actually most important policy piece said that they think there'll be more sanctions on the

and ian bremer, the president and founder of the eurasia group, one of the best in the business whent comes to analyzing how political developments will affect markets and economies. welcome to both of you. i want to start if i can with juan. you are the architect of this strategy of sanctions, as your book mentions. going back to saddam hussein. but also continuing currently with iran, sanctions that arguably have had a great deal of success. it is early admittedly in this game, but do you see any signs at this point that the sanctions against russia are working, are changing puttp's behavior? >> thank you, jim. i do think these are the kind of sank shngs that work will work but likely in the long term. the premise behind these kinds of measures is to unplug russian banks, businesses, key business leaks, from the international banking and commercial world. that is what has been at the heart of the isolation of iran and other sanctions of processes that we've put in place. what you've seen with the naming of banker, the 17th largest bank in russia, the first salvo in beginning to unp

broader putin project to establish an alternative military, economic and political bloc in so-called eurasia which he sees as a direct challenge to the west. for that reason ukraine is central to his plans. >> reporter: when you talk about ukraine being a tiny economy, there's a reason for that. if you look at the polish economy versus the ukrainian economy since the fall of the soviet union, poland ran as fast as it could towards the free markets, ukraine did not. and when you look at the gdp per capita, ukraine now today stands at less than $4,000 whereas in poland it's higher than $25,000. so you care not just about democracy but economic freedom it matters. >> i think you're right. i think you're both right. i think that's why the majority of people in the ukraine would like to go with the eu and imf. got to get the money. we'll wait and see. merkel is on the phone with putin. nobody has any idea what the conversations are like, if money involved with the government in kiev or not. thanks to both of you. don jensen and michelle caruso-cabrera. >>> we got a big time a-list debate, forbes