i were guest host for the hour, david gordon for eurasia group.m johnson. >> china's manufacturing teetering on construction, the same story in europe. both of those purchasing managers index at 50.5, teetering on the brink of contraction. 50 is the redline. we will get u.s. manufacturing pmi at 9:55. earnings, carnival cruise line nine: 15 post avenue ceo jerry cahill will be on "market makers" between 10:00 and 12:00. u.s. companies contemplating a foreign dress will decide whether to proceed in light of some new rules that were unveiled yesterday by treasury end tax and version. secretary kerry is meeting his counterpart. president obama meanwhile will be addressing the u.n. at 12:50, and the clinton global initiative at 12:00. >> we are now $16 on gold this morning. futures negative five, euro a little bit of a string, $1.2886. but gold is what i am watching. 12:34. let's get to company news. >> at least 21 people have died in crashes involving gm cars with that ignition switches. the total was updated from 19 by attorney kenneth feinberg. gm

he is now the director of the atlantic council's eurasia division. to bottom line. >> my pleasure. president poroshenko thanks in the united states for the nonlethal equipment provided to his country but he cautioned "blankets and night vision goggles are important but one cannot win a war with a blanket." is it time for the u.s. to start providing the ukrainian military with legal aid? >> it is -- with lethal aid? >> it is well past time. antiaircraft weapons, antimissile weapons -- russia is conducting a war against ukraine and this will help ukraine defend his territory from aggression. >> if we had provided that lethal assistance, would that not open the theater of conflict? wuld we have a water war -- a ider war? >> if you had ukraine better able to fight its battles, that would inflict a heavier cost on aggression.r his he is hiding from the russian people that russian troops are fighting in ukraine. is presidentge portion goes -- is present poroshenko bringing to president obama? if he knows that the west is solidly behind ukraine as ukraine d

he's the president and founder of eurasia group, a political risk research and consulting company. ian bremmer, welcome to the program. are these protests unprecedented? has china ever seen anything like this? and i guess tiananmen comes to mind. >> yes. tiananmen's the last time we've seen this sort of thing within china itself. certainly hong kong there has been nothing like this since the hanover from great britain in 1997. most importantly it is by far the first serious challenge domestically to the president. it really is directly a question of the legitimacy and the support of what's so far been a very popular, very charismatic and very transformative rule. >> how much of a challenge is it to him and to the regime, the government in beijing? these students have been there for five days. they don't show any signs of backing down. >> no, in fact, tomorrow, as you've heard, you have the national day. there have been a number of calls for demonstrations in support of the occupied central movement, not just in the united states and in the developed countries, but we also see that

kremlin in which the long-term future of russia westernization's and thereby the future of at least eurasiald be discussed. now we have been drawn into a number of decisions step-by-step applets emphasis on the military outcome on the russian side. and we cannot accept the proposition that russia can do orderede outcome of its nations by the constant use of military hair. >> what should we do now? >> we should open the possibility of a fundamental negotiation with russia. but we should also make -- >> you say we. >> i am talking about the united states. the europeans have made it very engage,t they will not run any risk of war. but at the same time, we should also make their that the continuation of military fundamentalade its relationship with the united states, not just in sanctions but in what may be a long -- >> do you think putting that at risk will influence putin? '>> yes. >> do you think sanctions will influence him? >> not the way they are being conducted. >> a stop about this president and how he is perceived and if putin is motivated by what he perceives to be a weak president. m

oceanic was at war with eurasia therefore it had always been at war with eurasia.he enemy of the moment always represented absolute evil and any path for future agreement was impossible. this administration has no sense of past or future. all of those familiar with the human carnage inflicted by the civil war in syria pray for its end. the goal of our action should not be to end it by supporting aside. the enemy of my enemy is not always my friend. not the nibbler of another enemy is to also be clear should not be contingent on political reconciliation between shiites and baghdad the administration has become distracted by the hope to achieve the of reconciliation but there we're engaged in a sectarian civil war since 63280 the height of hubris and ignorance to suggest the american president can resolve of 15 year-old -- 1500 year old civil war to have full-size -- both sides embrace each other we always hope for reconciliation and peace we should not be so naive to make our national security contingent on and resolving sectarian civil war. seeking to promote a dut

that's the chief of the interpreter and president of the eurasia group. thank you so much.atest news on isis taking control of villages near the border with turkey. do you think this will put pressure? >> they never had control and is disregarded the control to allow any number of foreign fighters to enter. i can tell you how easy it is. they look the other way. now there is a lot of pressure coming from the united states and other person countries. the problem they face is they allow the monster to proliferate. if we start cracking down on isis, they will wage attacks inside turkey. we have seen them say our next stop is to liberate istanbul. it's a knife edge. >> if they are holding the hostages and on that, they haven't been able to help out. in syria, do you think that's an important distinction? the french are on board. the russians are pressuring a great deal saying no surveillance and nothing on the ground in syria unless you have worked with assad. despite all the sanctions we have seen, they will try to thread the needle. the threat has been good compared to the po

. >> ian bremer, president of eurasia group.ore the headlines you see, i'm talking about you and interest rates coming up. >> real perspective, consider this on al jazeera america >> hundreds of days in detention. >> al jazeera rejects all the charges and demands immediate release. >> thousands calling for their freedom. >> it's a clear violation of their human rights. >> we have strongly urged the government to release those journalists. >> journalism is not a crime. >> trafficked labor on the front lines? >> they're things, they're commodities... >> we go undercover... >> it isn't easy to talk at this base >> what's happing on u.s. bases? >> the tax payer directly pays the human trafficker >> fault lines al jazeera america's hard hitting... >> they're blocking the doors... ground breaking... they killed evan dead... truth seeking... >> they don't wanna see what's really going on >> break though investigative documentary series america's war workers only on al jazeera america >> good news, america, the federal reserve today dec

he is the president and founder of eurasia group.feel more emboldened because in today's world economic interests with trumping global security. >> the unfortunately timing of this, with the downing of mh17, yould haven't had european coordination if it hadn't been for that. but then, of course, just tragedy in the netherlands and the german uproar, it bought you a few more weeks, but today who is talking about mh 17, the families, but aside from that, not that many people. >> and it hasn't gotten cold yet in europe. when it does russia has a history of manipulating countries that need that natural gas. >> yeah, one of the reasons the russians feel like they don't want to or need to formally invade, is because they full well understand their economic leverage goes up over the next few months, and that will squeeze the ukrainians and the europeans as well to try to bring this to a resolution. >> i don't think we have talked about nato as much as we have in the last down -- couple of weeks. nato seems strangely relevant all of a sudden

david gordon from eurasia group. a conversation with ian bremmer in our next hour.he combined allied action. one of youro, frequent guests in london. we talk about the disinflation. some would say the chronic recession. us on china asn well. a very loaded our. syria >> front and center. looking forward to it. tom keene joining us from new york. "surveillance" shortly. air france shares lower. after the company offered a ray to its pilots union, which has been striking since sunday. let's bring in terry lundgren. u.s. -- it is different. it is hard to see how we resolve this. >> it has been a tough couple weeks. -- two sides seemed to lock the two sides seemed deadlocked, even with a small concession by air france yesterday. they say how about we will delay the expansion of our low cost franceia unit outside and holland. they said we want to accelerate growth within france. that was very much rejected by the unions. they are going to be protesting outside the french parliament today in uniform. ad not, they called it smokescreen and generally it does not seem like th

with theh fellow russia and eurasia program joins us this morning.e ended up in the situation where we are terribly confused about what putin is doing, what he wants, how close we are to a cease-fire. how should we analyze the evidence of the last 24 hours? we had a conversation. that is good news. how much was agreed and how much substance came out of that? >> it is important to keep the focus. what president putin is doing is pursuing a week neighbor policy. the play in ukraine means that putin wants to undermine ukrainian aspirations to become part of the integrated west. this means annexation of crimea, a legal territory occupied. it means also fermenting the protest in the east. the fact that putin proposed the plan is good because it brings us back to the negotiating table. time,unately, at the same a military buildup of russian troops in the east is observed. this means that president putin said, i am not going to give up the separatist movement in the east so easily. what ukraine has to face is a russian regular army. >> to counter that, this

. >> we had ian bremmer of the eurasia group earlier this morning, and he said what we are doing makes likely by the hour that we will get a nuclear deal with iran because we're pushing ourselves further away from the russians who honestly do not want us to be striking syria, and we are feeling the secretary and conflict -- secretary and conflict. >> i have thought for a long time the deal would be allusive and the administration might be unable to achieve a deal with iran to begin with, so i do not think that the nuclear issue with iran should be a deterrent for us to take action that we have to take, which is go back for a stable iraq, and defeat isis. >> likely, i was down at the world trade center, with the flood wall street protests for clever change, but it was one of the first times that i had really looked at the memorial, and i -- quite a change, and it was one of the first times i have really looked memorial, and overwhelmed by the fact that 13 years later it looks like we are created more islamic extremists then there was on that day 13 years ago. do you ever feel it is not

chairman and members of the subcommittee on europe eurasia and the threats to europe it's my honor and pleasure to be here today for this important and timely hearing. my name is farah pandith. i'm a senior fellow at the kennedy school of government at harvard university. my opinions and my written and verbal testimony or my own. i have come before you today to talk about the threat of foreign fighters returning to europe and what the united states could and should be doing about it. as a political appointee in the george w. bush and obama administrations i spent a decade working on the impact of the extremist ideology on local milenials especially in europe. i saw first-hand the complex properties on which extremists prey on young muslims tear apart communities and threaten stability worldwide. in january of this year i left government for the attention of writing a book that would explain what i have seen and what we can do to win the ideological war against extremism. i firmly believe we can win. i'm a proud american and i know first-hand the many men and women who serve our nation

chairman and members of the subcommittee on europe and eurasia it is my honor and pleasure to be hereoday with this important and timely hearing. of a senior fellow at the kennedy school of government my opinion and verbal testimony are my own. have come before you today to talk about the threat of fighters returning to europe and was denied his states could and should be doing about it as a political appointee in the position the obama administration i spent a decade working on extremist ideology. i saw firsthand the complex process by which extremist pray and threatens stability worldwide in jay area this year i wrote books to explain why had seen to win the war against extremism i firmly believe we can win. of a proud american and i know firsthand of the men and women who serve the nation with passion and commitment and steadfast determination and to keep us safe i will work with and for them. also the respect of our presidents have for all faith both administrations have openly stated that open and act of terrorist does not represent the religion of islam. my interest of extremism

there are, oceana had always been at war with eurasia. this administration seems to have no sense of past or future. all of those familiar with the terrible human carnage inflicted by the civil towbar syria pray for its end. but the goal of our action in isis should not be to end it by supporting assad. the enemy of my enemy is not always my friend. and sometimes the goal is the destruction of the enemy who poses an imminent threat to our national security, not the enabler of yet another enemy of america. it should also be clear that any action we take against isis should in no way be contingent on political reconciliation between sunnies and shiites in baghdad. this administration has often become distracted by the hope to achieve this reconciliation but the sad truth is the sunnies and shiites have been illinois gauged in a sectarian civil war since 632a.d. it is the height of hubris, the height of ignorance, to suggest that the american president can come and resolve a 1500 year old religious civil war. and have both sides throw down t

my second reason for supporting tighter eurasia's standards is that we have two wonderful daughters intheir late 30's. the world does not get its act together within the next shift into 25 years of my daughters will almost certainly see an extreme global warming catastrophe. we will have passed the point of no return. and most of the population of the earth, especially the poor and vulnerable, will die or become seriously disabled from extreme weather anchorage as the foul air and water. only the wealthiest will be able to shield themselves from these effects. that terrible damage will destroy the economy and seriously affect the wealthy. ever, by then it will be far too late to do anything about it. thank you for your attention. >> thank you very much. >> next test of susan miller. >> thank you for your time today . we have heard a lot about what that organization as. in my world here in d.c. a lot of what i do is reach out to people and connect with our affiliates and partners and individuals and activists from the country to meet their stores, and try to relate those stories and try

chairman and members on europe, eurasia and the threats to europe. it is my honor and pleasure to be here for this important and timely hearing. i am a senior fellow at the kennedy school of government at harvard. my opinions in my written and verbal testimony are my own. i have come before you to talk about the threat of foreign fighters returning to europe and what the united states could and should be doing about it. as a political appointee in the george w. bush and obama administrations, i spent a decade working on the impact of extremist ideologies and millennials especially in europe. i saw the processes by which they prey on young muslims, tear apart and threaten stability worldwide. in january, i left government with the intention of writing a book to explain what i had seen and what we can do to win the war against extremism. i firmly believe we can win. i'm a proud american. they serve with passion and determination to keep us from harm. i have been honored to work with and for them. i know the president our presidents have for all faiths.

. >> given that circumstance -- >> the chair of the subcommittee on europe, eurasia, and emerging threats. >> let me express my appreciation to you, mr. secretary. you're working hard, doing your best for us to. we may have disagreements, but all of us should appreciate the hard work you are putting out, and also the respect you are showing the american people and congress today being here and opening yourself up to this type of very energetic questioning. so i will get to my energetic questioning. let me understand, the proposal that i seem to be seeing here is the pre-syrian army and we build them up. although it has some elements, there is every indication it is riddled with radical islamic elements, terrorists, many of whom are more committed to fighting the regime, assad's regime, then fighting islamists. assad's regime, which of course means does no harm, but they themselves are engaged with fighting isil. in the end, it seems to me we are going to be basically providing weapons in order to whorcut an enemy of isil, is engaged deeply in fighting that radical islamic terrorist elemen

next to the subcommittee in europe, eurasia and emerging threats looks at the potential for these citizens to return to the home countries to commit terrorist attacks. this hearing is just over an hour. >> hy call this hearing to order. this is a subcommitteei call th. this is a subcommittee on europe, emerging threats and we will discuss any waiting for the europe which is an area we are focusing on but it is also an emerging threat to the world. going to handled things differently for this hearing, i am going to ask my ranking member if he would move forward with his opening statement. the chairman of the committee, i will ask my colleagues for opening statements as well. i yield them to mr. keating. >> this important and timely hearing. i think our steamed witnesses including -- and we have a long history in massachusetts, so happy to see his legacy testifying before us today. and geographic proximity of europe conflict zone. and premier recruitment tools, expanding reach far into europe and the united states. these tools are cheap, ineffective and even the group like isil which has res

. >> i work for the eurasia group i would want anyone to think the accent reflects any bias. i have a purely mythological question for the panel. it seems most of the organizations have published the portion of don't knows, quite often the press has recalculated the polls reflect it as an absolute confrontation between yes and no. i saw the brookings site, to this tentatively and show the yes no. as far as i know they don't knows quite a bit proportion of the polls. surprisingly big for a poll, for a referendum that takes 20% approximately. so i was wondering if you could comment on this and perhaps give some indication as to whether they think these hesitant voters will vote yes or no? thank you. we will start again with charlie to respond to questions. >> thank you. i'll start on that one. that's fairly standard practice when you're predicting elections to get rid of the don't knows and report figures without them. but it does raise the question of which way the don't knows are leaning. different pollsters are reporting different levels of don't knows. it extends a little b