he is president of political consulting firm eurasia group. i'm pleased to have him back on this program and thank him for sitting in for me while i was away. thank you. >> my pleasure. >> rose: let's begin with iran. you've said two things to me. one, you have a complicated relationship to it i.e., you look at it and see things many people would might know not see that coverage has not been as good as it might have been in explaining all the ramifications? >> i think that's true. i think part of it is because obama has been arguing for the iran agreement on its face, on the terms of the actual nuclear deal and frankly, that's not a very good argument. it's a fairly weak deal, doesn't get us a lot of what we want they're likely to cheat enforcement will be challenging and we can talk about all these things if you like, but on the other side the geopolitics of the deal are quite favorable for the united states, and those aren't being argued by the white house or by any people at all. >> rose: they can come later and you can do that later. >> so

he's the president of the eurasia group.'m thankful for having him in and for sitting in for me while i was away. he said to things to me. one, you have a complicated relationship to it. you look at it and see things many people might not see. the coverage has not been as good as it might have in in explaining all the ramifications. ian: i think that is true. i think part of it is because obama has been arguing for the iran agreement on the terms of the actual nuclear deal and frankly, that's not a very good argument. it's a fairly weak deal. it doesn't get us a lot of what we want and we are -- they are likely to cheat, and enforcement will be challenging. on the other side the geopolitics are actually quite favorable for the united states and those are not eating argued by the white house or by many people at all. charlie: they come later and you can do that later. ari: -- ian: it is a question of oil, a question of regional balance. charlie: what's the connection between the deal and the geopolitics? ian: when you are act

of the eurasia group. thank you very much. you next time. ♪ rishaad: it is wednesday and this is "trending business." live in sydney, tokyo, and mumbai. here's is a look at what we are watching. iphone sales rising 35 percent, yet still missing estimates. what about the watch? apple is not saying. oil hovering around $50 a barrel. the bloomberg index showing commodities cheaper than at the height of the financial crisis. nick their reactions, iran -- nuclear reactions iran's investigator insists he did not cave in. do not forget to include the all-important hashtag. what happened in the u.s. overnight, a lot of red across the asia pacific. david: extending the losses we saw on wall street overnight. the chinese markets opened up, shanghai, don't pay attention to that. that goes all sorts of directions. i will talk about this later. led by japan and hong kong, down to 1%. similar losses are cross taiw

i spoke with ian bremmer the founder and president of the eurasia group.you think -- do you think there is anything in these proposals that can satisfy both creditors and the greek public? ian: there are two things that are important here. the first is that the greek government -- their tone and engagement with the europeans has been much more constructive post-referendum than it was before. that's in part because they are working with the opposition now. they got rid of their very were, motorcycle-writing minister of finance -- of their very recalcitrant motorcycle-riding minister of finance. i would be very surprised if this isn't very close to something that is truly acceptable by the europeans. whether it is acceptable by all of the europeans is an open question. i'm not worried that they will be able to sell it to the greek people. tsipras is now a hero. he will be able to sell just about anything to parliament. katty: the question is whether they can sell it to the germans and the bundestag. ian: this summit is including all of the european -- eurozo

i am ian bremmer, president of the eurasia group, filling in, who is on assignment.remains for talks with iran, and in their 15th day, it is the longest trip abroad of any secretary of state since george schultz in 1983. a third deadline has come and gone, with talks now extended until monday. both signs claim --

over the weekend, ian bremmer of the eurasia group tweeted out a chart.be our guest host at 7:00 this morning. this chart is today's single best chart. it shows -- we have data for the 20 countries with the highest debt. we just took the top five. they are not all the same. japan's debt may be sustainable. italy, as tom puts it, is the 500 pound gorilla. tom: that is a fabulous chart because you have japan as an asterisk. italy has been in the middle of all that. brendan: michael pond, we hard-working at these five countries -- jamaica and lebanon right there with greece and italy and japan. can you talk about debt to gdp ratios the same way with different countries? obviously japan is sustainable in a way that lebanon is not? michael p.: you have to look at the underlying fundamentals, and the strength of the political system and things like that. you cannot just look at a debt to gdp ratio. you have to look at whether that is all deficit or interest cost over time. you have to look at overall fundamentals in the political structure. brendan: read betwee

scarlet: that was the eurasia president speaking on bloomberg veillance" earlier today.isition in the aerospace industry in three years, and we talk more about what this means for the industry. ♪ lockheed martin, the largest supplier to the pentagon, is buying sikorsky, the price tag $9 billion. this will extend the lockheed's status as the largest defense contractor and widen its lead over rolling in the u.s.. and ir, olivia sterns spoke to george ferguson about and we talked about sikorsky and the black hawk helicopters and their overall strategy. ferguson: they already have a presence, so this sikorsky deal allows them to sell the helicopter. it is a very important helicopter with a lot of revenue, and it likely have a lot of capability of being sold internationally, as well. olivia: they say that the technologies, united technologies, are getting rid of sikorsky because it is a low margin business. helicopters last 20 or 30 years, and then they have to be replaced, so i think there is a demand, just at the defense department, so you can sell the helicopter internatio

among some of the more radical predictions, eurasia group saying the ill for keeping greece in the eurosproportionately higher. they argue that the hawks of the eurogroup would like to pay greece to leave the eurozone. pay the bill and be done with it. running out of cash that is a big concern. the ecb will be meeting to discuss that. ihs global insight say that they may run out of cash this week. ing is saying that asset debt relief default loans, that is clear. angie: to your point, it is very much a fraction of it. it is a victory for tsipras. for merkel and the rest of the eu leaders, this could be a stain on the eu partnership and membership. zeb: the vote is no doubt historic. the response by leaders could also be historic. they have to decide about setting a precedent for bowing to a nation that did not meet its obligations. it would show that you too can slouch the rules. germany sees it as bad economic policy. germany's economy minister, he also leads the social democrats. he was quoted yesterday as saying that tsipras and his government are leading his people on a path of it o

brummer of the eurasia group putting it into perspective. at one point, because of these were lockedllers out of 71% of the chinese market. the stock market is open for business in america and the dow is down 200 points. let's show you what the sea of red looks like. it is a 1% drop on the s&p 500. same for the dow, slightly more. it is not the quads i panic selling we have seen happening in china. that it is not great, nothing compared to what we see in china. erik: or japan, for that matter. matt: right. yesterday a couple of guests compared what is happening in china to the crash of 1929. it out on, if you map a chart and compare the steps taken, it there's curious similarities. matt: check out what is going on in europe. it is interesting. you see gains there and that might be more of a reaction to the greek situation than the chinese situation. i also want to point out what we saw here in the u.s. was a drop of a few hundred point on the dow jones industrial average early in the morning it then turned into a rally at the close erik:. le

eurasia group had talked with earlier this week saying the deal was a prelude to broader geopoliticalhips in the middle east. the u.s. saudi relationship is much more challenge today than it has been. i would be willing to make a bet that within 10 years time, he was relationship with iran will be closer to the u.s. relationship with saudi arabia. scarlet: how does the rn dealership the region's balance of power? >> it doesn't shift it at all in the foreseeable future. there is no indication that iran is looking for -- if we can focus on people to people the strongwith iranian deals for and the united states, there is no reason there can't be a people to people connection and we can build on that. iaspora.an d it is not saudi arabia or iran. the west should push for a positive relationship with both. any positive relationship with the government and have brought -- in tehran in its current form will be difficult. scarlet: thank you, james smith. coming up on the bloomberg market day, a terrible, horrible, no good week for commodities. we look behind the numbers. ♪ scarlet: welcome bac

political economy with the eurasia group. thank you for joining us. >>> as if greece's problems are not enough, prime minister' licksprime minister alexis tsipr as is facing wildfires. >> with the flames of its financial crisis not yet extinguished greece is now confronted with even more fires. devouring much of this hillside, you blanketing parts of athens in smoke. ensuring that brushfires spread quickly than they normally would, the fire is inching ever closer to houses and residents are asked to evacuate. firefighters did their best to douse the flames. but it wasn't just parts of the capital set ablaze. huge fires ripped through the region. at the crisis operation center, prime minister tsipras met with greek officials to discuss the options. he urged the public not to panic. >> everybody needs to stay calm. obviously volunteers contributing with the pier brigade. we need to keep calm and we need collective efforts to face the fires. >> already greece has applied for assistance from italy and france and may seek help fro

and the president and founder of eurasia group, i am pleased to have them on this program.egan let me start with you in athens. what is the aftermath to this vote? megan: there is still a sense of defiance. it became really clear the new vote was going to win and people said, at least we are standing up to the creditors. when i woke up this morning, the lines at the atm's were even longer. there was concern about what this means. tomorrow, euro zone leaders will get together in brussels and try to hand out an idea. i think that is probably not likely especially in light of this no vote. charlie: your reaction to this vote and what it means for the rest of us? >> there are many mysteries and one of them is that the greeks apparently think the reason they have not get -- gotten better terms from creditors before is because they lacked some kind of democratic mandate or something. they thought if they had this referendum, it supported that position, that the government could get better terms. the real problem greece is not getting better terms is german politics and not greek

i am ian bremmer president of the eurasia group, filling in who is on assignment.ohn kerry remains for talks with iran, and in their 15th day, it is the longest trip abroad of any secretary of state since george schultz in 1983. a third deadline has come and gone, with talks now extended until monday. both signs claim -- sides claim slow, hard progress it meantime, opposition is real in the middle east and here in congress. will we achieve a deal, and what are the implications of success or failure? joining me now from washington is suzanne maloney with the brookings institution, and from cambridge massachusetts, gary samore the executive director for research at belfer center at the school. i am pleased to have them both on this program. welcome. let me start with the question of the latest pickup -- pickup -- hickup, in one issue that has become very prominent is the question of the removal of this u.n. arms in bargo -- embargo. suzanne, why has that got in all of the attention over the past couple of days, it is this an issue that can scuttle the deal? suzanne m

president of the eurasia group filling in for charlie rose who's on assignment. we begin the program with iran nuclear negotiation. secretary of state john kerry remains in vienna for talks with iran. in their 15th day longest trip abroad by any u.s. secretary of state since george schultz in 1983. a third deadline has come and gone with talks extended till monday. both sides claim slow, hard progress. meanwhile, opposition to a deal is strong among american allies in the middle east and here in congress. will we achieve a deal and what are the implications of success or fairly? joining me now from washington is suzanne maloney senior fellow at the center for middle east policy at the brookings institution. and from cambridge massachusetts, gary samore. he's the executive director for research at the belfer center for signs and international affairs add harvard kennedy school. pleased to have them both on this program. let me start with the question of the latest latest hiccup. it seems to me that one issue that's suddenly become very, very prominent is the quest

more of a mixed bag in eurasia. a tough macro situation. fierce price wars in some of our markets.ance that. organically, slightly week. back by m&a's. anna: mergers are topical across europe in your sector. the eu has expressed concerns. i thought the eu was keen to see more m&a taking place between telecom providers. what are the concerns that eu has expressed and how are you going to overcome those? johna;an: we are trying to stabilize our situation, which has been tough career we are doing well organically. we are too small to pick up the investments and improve the customer experience. that is our main proposition. the to the various stakeholders. we have a very constructive dialogue. this faces a lot of questions and we respect that. we stick to the previous estimate this will be approved during the second half of the year. anna: give us some insights into the scandinavian telecom market and other places you operate. in other parts of europe, we talk about those concepts a lot. telecom companies providing broadband tv. how much is that driving parts of your business? johan: l

eurasia group saying the bill for keeping greece in the eurozone with no prospect of reform, soaring. are saying the hawks will prevail. interesting array of views on where greece goes from here. we have barclays saying athens will need to print money likely by july. by july? we are in july. is up: by july 20. -- by july 20. this is turning into a test for angela merkel. : they find themselves in a difficult spot. they could about the demands that alexis tsipras has leverage. but that would set a precedent. it could show future indebted nations could skip out on their bills. the germans do not want to see a new deal, but if you do not do them a deal, the economy collapses. rishaad: thank you for that. we will be returning to athens after the break. also on the way, not just greece. china as well, causing huge volatility in the market. will it put an end to the equity plunge? we will find out as we head to the open in hong kong and shanghai. ♪ rishaad: a look at our top stories -- greece considers its future in the eurozone, delivering a resounding note to the austerity measures. all t

volcker senior fellow from council on foreign relations and ial bremmer, president and founder of eurasia group i'm pleased to have them on this program. let me start with you in athens what is the aftermath to this vote? >> well, here in athens there's still a real sense of defines. i was in the square when it became really clear that the no vote was going to win. and people sort of said well at least we're standing up to the creditors. that being said when i woke up this morning the lines at the atms were even longer. i think there is some concern about what this no vote means. and tomorrow eurozone leaders are going to get together in brussels and try and hammer out a deal. i think that is probably really unlikely especially in light of this no vote. >> rose: sebastian, your reaction to this vote and what it means for the rest of us? >> well there's many mysteries, charlie in this greek story but one of them is that the greeks apparently think that the reason they haven't got-- hadn't gotten better terms from the creditors before was they lack lacked a democratic mandate or something a

anna: that was eurasia group founder and president ian bremmer.yan: let's get a few view of the markets from bank of america -merrill lynch. think you very much for being here. just heard ian bremmer talking about how this will be a difficult deal to implement. with what we have seen over the last week since the deal was done what does what we have seen such far -- seen thus far tell us about how the application will go? >> it started on a bridge loan. the negotiations for the new program would be very difficult. i believe that expecting a final agreement by mid august is very optimistic. it would take longer. they have to agree on the reforms. they hope to capitalize the banks. this is going to be very difficult. anna: do they have to discuss debt relief? yesterday we heard from angela merkel and she was saying how discussions of debt relief had started until the third phase of this new bailout. she suggested that debt relief was not going to be part of this conversation. athanasios: it will not be finalized, but the discussions have to start. th

ian bremmer will come up joining us from eurasia group.ext, john farrow in london, the conversation with the new executive chairman of barclays john macfarlane taking over from mr. jenkins. let's call him their chief cost cutter. good morning, everyone. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." let us digress away from greece away from china. how about a thoughtful morning must read on the future of your america. schilling has been adamant about distortion in low interest rates. here he looks at the pessimists and he says he is not one of them. this is one part of a terrific essay -- tom: brennan, this is one of the great essays of the moment. brendan: but we are still waiting for the productivity enhancement. you have capital, increases in the population. we know what those things look like. we all thought the internet was that magic thing, and there is increasing evidence that the internet has not increased productivity. vonnie: suddenly it just fell off, and we are not getting back

three h5 strains we are dealing with our these reassortment, high pathogenic h5 avian influenza from eurasia that swapped out parts of his jeans with a low pathogenic avian influenza that we had here in the us already. so the virus is just constantly changing which makes vaccine development difficult. the vaccines the vaccines that we have for humans as well as animals are not as highly effective as the other vaccines, and the virus could mutate away from or escape from the vaccines. there are a lot of balance about the avian vaccines in the human vaccines. we do work to prepare vaccine viruses and have stockpiled vaccine against the original age five strains were major those are really preparing for pandemic readiness rather than what we are using every day. >> i was expecting a miracle. only going to be a certain percentage effected to begin with. plus we have a real real problem with vaccine production, do we not? we have a hard time producing enough vaccine sometimes for humans. if we start trying to vaccinate 300,000 chickens with 300 million chickens to leave even have even close to ca

earlier on bloomberg tv, eurasia group president was asked how the vote on capitol hill was shaping upnton came out immediately in favor and she is going to drive a lot of democrats because they understand that this deal has to help get supported. the americans of the soul country the end of not supporting the deal, whether or not it's a bad deal, all that means is the americans are not dealing with iran, everyone is. as a horrible situation for the u.s. to be in. stephanie: never without conflict in drama, israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu hates the iran deal. he says he will be making his position clear to congress. and no one on wall street did better than morgan stanley in the second quarter, trading and brokerage fees rose in quarter to and morgan stanley posted the biggest revenue increase among the six largest u.s. banks. the bank also reported record profit in wealth management for the fourth time in five quarters. shares of ms have more than doubled in the last 2.5 years. erik: renewable energy fans there's a takeover day in the solar industry. sun edison is buying an

where we had high pathogenic h-5 influenza from eurasia that swapped out parts of the genes with the low pathogenic avian influenzas we had in the u.s. already. so the virus is just constantly changing, which makes vaccine development difficult. the vaccines we have for humans as well as for animals are not as highly effective as some of the other vaccines and the virus can mutate away from or escape from the vaccines. there's a lot of balance about the avian vaccines and the human vaccines we do work to prepare. and against the original h-5 strains from asia. but those are really preparing for pandemic readiness rather than vaccines we're using every day. >> you know we're always expecting just a technological miracle to save us from these things. but what you're talking about with the vaccine only a certain percentage affected to begin with. plus, we've got a real problem with vaccine production in this country. do we not? we have a hard time producing enough vaccines sometimes for human flu. would we have -- if we start trying to vaccinate 300 million chickens couple hundred milli

they can be integrated and china's proposition was doubted by the russians because of the so-called eurasia corporation as well as the former backyard of the central asia but now we understood that we could be complimentary for each other. india still does not endorse it officially. when i visited the bay bridge in san francisco area 30 years ago, i was overwhelmed by the united states capabilities on the infrastructure of these things. now, you are way ahead let us chinese do the infrastructure. you do more on the superstructure, finance science, technology, planning et cetera. so different nations has different strengths and weaknesses. last but you not least about the surveys. these surveys, you should not leave it totally about you should not discard it totally. in between i think china and the united states reconciled on very difficult questions of the wall. china and the united states had reconciled the so-called tibetan issue, human rights issue. now, we agree. these issues should not be damaging. the overall china/u.s. relations but it takes a long time that we can come together. i

eurasia group's ian bremer on the latest out of greece.dra: writes in the streets in greece after parliament approves austerity measures. netflix stock soaring as a subscriber base as millions. good thursday morning, everyone. i am sandra smith. it is thursday, july 16th. wish me, cofounder russell simmons with me. if you didn't here already, and the towel. we begin with breaking news this morning against the backdrops against the streets of athens. the great parliament has voted yes for the troubled nation. the e.u. now carried to help greece payoff in july bills. germany's finance minister still believe athens would do better to lease the currency area temporarily to receive the leg down. donald trump says he's made $213 million for his role on the reality show the apprentice. that is feminist trump releases more records showing his worth in the range of $10 million. netflix stock taking off a new all-time high after quarterly earnings adding 3.2 million subscribers and plans to expand service to 200 countries at the end of next year. th

finance ministers exam infusest plans, decision could reportedly come today not sunday, here is what eurasiad ian bremer told me last year. >> right now if we don't have a deal the blame is firmly on o german chancellor angela merkel not only greeks not submitted a credible proposal europeans asking for but french president hol abed came out says he thinks this is a major step forward. >> another day in the green overnight small win for the government of china as it troo is to restore confidence in the stock market in china shanghai hi composite up 4 1/2% an exclusive interview about china's impasse in the u.s. later on this hour many of you watched right here the four hour blackout at new york stock exchange this week had investors on edge, on wednesday. our coverage of why the outage happened to the biggest ratings day ever, the fox business network, congratulations, fbn you wanted to see what what those happening here stock exchange says caused by computer glitch new york stock exchange trying to complete. pope francis lashed out at capitalism calling unfettered pursuit of money quote the

out the winners and losers from the iran nuke deal the guy who figures it out, ian bremer with the eurasiaroup. you sent out a tweet, you said russia is the beg lose-- big loser in the iran nuke deal. >> you showed it the oil, russia is taking on the chin. their economy is contracting because of sanctions. stuart: hold on, it's contracting, it's not just flatlining, it's contracting. >> 3 1/2% this year imf expects one of the worst production expectations of any major economy in the world and secondly, the iranians are a major gas supporter and europeans will buy from iran as opposed to russia where there's problems with disruptions. there's no way to reverse that. once europeans are getting iranian gas, they're not going to turn off the spigots. >> the fact that you open up the iranian economy over the long-terms and that the iranian people and regime will be more interested in globalization and long-term that's going to make it harder for the russians to maintain a strong strategic alliance. and that's tweet number one. >> it was. stuart: we saw it. you told me this morning, there was tw

joining us now, president and founder of eurasia group, ian bremer.or of the cia and nsa and retired general michael hayden. good to have you both with us this morning. we heard mitt romney before we went to break talking about a certain country that i think for a while people weren't taking so seriously but now it looks like perhaps russia might become center stage again. >> obviously, some -- mitt romney probably enjoys talking about the threats from russia after he was mocked and ridiculed in 2012 when he was told that he was living in the 1980s. not the case at all. but before we go to russia let's go general hayden to what is happening right now with the iranian negotiations. more troubling reports out that the lifting of the arms embargo is now in the mix. we certainly can't assume anything before the final details are out. but if these news reports do prove to be correct and usually they do prove to be correct because officials leak bad news like this. so we can all be prepared for it. what message would that send across the globe, the iranians

joining us now, president and founder of eurasia group and editor at large for "time" magazine ian bremermike huckabee's comments. and paris bureau chief for the daily beat christopher dickie on the set. he is out with the latest book "our man in charleston," britain's secret agent in the civil war south. we'll get to that in a bit. thank you very much for being on. look forward to talking about the book. joe, take it away. >> christopher, can you report back to us what the french's attitude is about the iran deal? they seem to have been sort of taking a tougher line than americans are used to. what is their opinion of the final deal? >> they can live it with or it wouldn't have been through. the extent at which kerry and obama had to negotiate not only with the iranians but with their five partners in the negotiations. the french were the bad cops in this in a sense they were taking the toughest line publicly. but, of course the russians and chinese were not friendly all the way down the line. but i think that essentially the french have gotten onboard and it comes down to this. if not t