. >> joining us now on the cnbc newsline to discuss further, ian bremer from the eurasia group.t here to try and dwell on what the main conclusions are going to be of this terrible attack yesterday in brussels, is one of them going to be a much more disjointed europe? >> it certainly is. unfortunately, that's not news, right. it's been going on now for a couple of years. the crisis -- the refugee crisis, which is only getting worse, the terrorist threats, as well as the potential for brexit coming on the june 23 referendum date. all of those things are bringing countries to make decisions for themselves and refusing to think about europe as a whole. the markets are eventually going to be recognizing this. >> my question is, what is the economic impact of all of this? what is the impact of more disjointed europe, as you say? at the eurasia group, a lot of your clients are hedge funds and investors and turn to you for the geopolitical analysis to figure out those long-term investment decisions. what are you telling them? >> it's going to be a hit to tourism and a hit to trade, rig

tom: charles lichfield eurasia group. he'll continue with us.ons today -- not only at the airport at the metro as well. these are multiple attacks. good morning. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. explosions in brussels. headlines. vonnie: what we know is that the belgian prosecutor says it was a suicide attack; two explosions at the airport. local reporting suggests that at least 13 have been killed. there was also an explosion downtown one of the metro stations close to the european commission headquarters. there are reports of fatalities there, too. brussels;in or out of the airports will remain closed until tomorrow. eurostar is not running in planes are being diverted. the premier is telling people to stay indoors. that's what wefar. threat level four. tom: "la monde" has a great inture, and i saw a headline "american airlines," saying all their staff in brussels is safe. as on he mentioned, explosions in the metro. jones hayden has served over 30 years for dow jones and bloomberg in brussels. he is deeply experienced in the culture and pace of

ian bremmer, founder and president of political risk consultancy eurasia group. pleased to have him back at the table. >> thank you, charlie. >> rose: tell me where to start. are we looking at a any i.s.i.s. strategy throughout europe? should we assume if there's one cell carrying out attacks in brussels and paris, there are probably other cells throughout europe prepared to carry out attacks? >> yes, and also the news that one of these bombers was actually researching nuclear work and trying to get his hands on material for a dirty bomb. i mean, clearly, they want large, coordinated -- these are not lone wolves and it's not all about the refugee issue. we're talking about large muslim population living in slums, not integrated with the rest of society. in france, it's 8% of the population in. belgium it's 6. the economics aren't working well for the people and the politics are turning against them. >> rose: the attacks are coming from people who went to syria and learned some kind of craft of making bombs under those kind of circumstances and then come back. >>

of eurasia's country analysis came out this morning and said it looks like the vice president might justpresident. rishaad: as you say, it has legs. thank you very much. china be about to ditch its one-size-fits-all approach to property markets around the country? we have a closer look. that is coming up, next. ♪ rishaad: let's get to that breaking news, china posting a leap in property values, prices rising and 47 cities. what to do make of it all? >> the property market is in a rebound. it has had a week year last year , but at some point the monetary easing happening would have fed through, so which are seeing is prices starting to rebound, but especially strong in certain tier one cities. 56% in a year, which is absolutely insane. >> some of it is probably speculative, but some of these provinces are growing faster. china is not a homogenous economy. are doing better than agricultural and heavy industry and the northeast. you have to look at where the pockets of growth are. especially as you mention the northeast of the country. >> it's always going to be difficult when you have indu

we will bring you ian bremmer of eurasia group. bloomberg surveillance. ♪ quinnet's get the vonnie with our bloomberg business flash. vonnie: british housing prices have passed another milestone. the average price is now more than 300,000 pounds. -- home prices in the u.k. have risen 60% in the last decades, more than twice the pace of earnings growth. homeowners in america are finding it more difficult to trade up because of the widening gap between mid-level and upper-level home prices. julius is mid tier homeowners cannot afford upper-level homes. hedge fund managers can. get enough port. money managers are now the most bullish in -- francine: now to what we are watching for the rest of the week, trading week in the u.s. but also europe, apple will unveil its new smaller screen iphone and its updated ipad. tomorrow, -- will beat at -- speak in new york and also tomorrow, -- speaks on the future of europe's architecture in frankfurt. still with us, doing cameron we touched on negative rates, but emerging markets, you have structu

joining us right now ian brimmer is the president of the eurasia group. also michael o'hanlan, senior policy fellow at the brookings institution. thank you for being here. ian, this weekend is huge for travel. the state department put out these warnings for americans planning to travel abroad. should we feel safe traveling in europe? >> sure. i don't think we should allow this to affect our lives. but there's no question that the concerns about terror in europe are a lot larger than they were before. i would say if i was talking to students, friends, family, i'd be more concerned about turkey, istanbul, with tourist areas, than i would other places. as far as western europe, no, i still would say no. >> why turkey? we have heard recent attacks there as well. >> it's going to be really hard for president erdogan to maintain control locally. the attacks have expanded from beyond kurdish areas, now getting into ankara, istanbul, and targeting tourist areas. that's kind of new and i suspect that's going to escalate. there you're talking about 2.5 million refu

tom: willis sparks with the eurasia group with us as we look at the dash to florida.to radio at some point this morning. one of our most contentious guests will join us. gartman on commodities. gartman on charts. we shall do that at 7:30. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ is new york city. it was once his new york city. without question, he changed all of wall street worldwide. john gutfreund is something to talk about in our morning must-read. we welcome you to a mario draghi bloomberg surveillance this morning. right now we digress. everyone who is part of global wall street knows michael lewis, no, not the big short, but the book that started it all for mr. lewis, "liars, poker" in 1986. esther gutfreund to peoples of the place by simply wondering tookd it -- mr. gutfreund the pulls of the place pleasantly wondering around it and asking questions of the traders. he was a last person a nerve wrecked trader wanted to see. he felt and it chilling your bones. he has died at the age of 86. reflecting on wall street and where became, steven wieting with. we worked with

mark: eurasia says there is a growing perception the eu is failing on terrorism and security.hat it could swing the outcome of the referendum on june 23. i'm not sure that you have seen the reaction in the currency markets, but we have the pound falling against all 16 of its peers. we have a spokesman linking the rules, to free movement lack of border controls. prime minister cameron says that is not appropriate. whether or not it is true, is there a risk, if you are pro-eu, which you are, that the toctorate will link that terrorism, immigration, and vote to leave the eu? always be: general silly people who say silly things. sometimes the public is not in a position to be certain of what they are claiming or suggesting is true or untrue. not peculiar to european countries. the worst terror attack was in 2005 in london as a result of similar attacks on our .nderground and london buses the idea that you are protected from terrorism more effectively by not being in the european union is absurd. if anything, it is the other way around. is everyave not seen year, closer cooperation

for more on oil, let's bring in the director of commodity strategies for the eurasia group., i couple of days ago people were saying that it looked like we had reached the bottom in oil, things were stabilizing. you turn around and barclays comes out with a report saying -- hang on, head for the exits, this has nothing to do with fundamentals. >> i wouldn't say that. i think it has a lot to do with fundamentals. the super cycle is over. people are used to seeing oil do one thing, go straight up. i think we need to get used to a new price regime. that's really all about .esetting into ranges we've had forceful rallies from the lows. for sure. betty: it was like a 25 year low. bruno: sure, sure, we needed to test the resolve of u.s. oil and gas producers. let forget, we media production off the market. betty: but is this enough? at what point does this bring the shale producers back in to capitalize on somewhat higher prices? bruno: the answer is that it's very hard to tell. the reason for that is that we've never been through a cycle with shale yet. you can't include 2008 fro

atwater.t was peter today at 4:00 p.m., we continue our coverage on the terror attacks in brussels with eurasiaup's, and will the attacks undermine eu solidarity? scarlet: it's time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. today's scheduled showdown in court between the fbi and apple has been called off. the federal government says it may be able to unlock the iphone of one of the san bernardino shooters without apple's help. the u.s. wants to test a possible method for accessing data on the device. apple has opposed efforts to force it to undercut the iphone security features. chinese distribution partners or whole role is in talks for an undisclosed amount. there the danish maker of luxury consumer electronics. roll cells rolls-royce is and luxury watches. it trades at half the market value. housinge federal finance agency says january's numbers were up .5%, matching estimates. prices were up 6% year to date. that's the bloomberg business flash. scarlet: still ahead on "bloomberg markets," we continue to monitor the headlines coming out o

he's essentially going to turn russia into this angry island in the middle of the eurasia peninsula. a failing strategy. >> how does the rest of the world act, if at all? >> i think we act like the adult in the room. on this one i have to say i think the white house called it about right. it's pure foolishness on the part of russia. the bad news is russia, with 8,000 nuclear weapons, represents half of all the nuclear weapons. so to have a coherent global conversation about how to protect them, hard without russia, but let's go ahead and do what we can and continue to put the pressure on russia to protect their nuclear arsenal. >> what do you make of this idea that since it's going to happen anyway, go ahead and let saudi arabia and north korea have nuclear weapons and sign off on that as a policy matter? >> i'm trying to think who came up with that idea, shep. anyway, i think that's a very bad idea. any proliferation is a net negative for the global community. we don't have to go in that direction. those nations are comfortable with the u.s. nuclear umbrella. there's no additional m

eurasia group president and founder. at the headlines unfold, what does this mean to you across the board, geopolitically, economically speaking? ian: overwhelmingly, the implications are on europe and there are a number of them. first of all, there was a very big deal done between the german eu and the turks on refugees. 6 billion euros of relief to the turks. also providing visa -- a controversial measure when it was signed. it will be harder to intimate now because the european governments and european people will be skittish about the idea of allowing all of those people across their borders are you british exit, the referendum coming on june 23. the likelihood that you vote for exit is going up. it is hard to get the brits to get emotionally behind supporting europe even though they know that economically the dangers are great on the back of terrorist incidents like this. much more support for populist and extremist parties. anti-immigrant parties across europe. you saw this with the german elections of couple of we

of eurasia group will join us on monday.ou to our london team and those in new york city. we had a most interesting week. ♪ ofstemming the tide refugees. russian central bank holds steady on its rates. concern of inflation grows. 2016, what a start. >> we are going to sort through this. stephanie: we have a lot to get through. let's get you some first word news. jong-un's regime fired a missile into the waters off the east coast.

organized like the state department regionally and functional severe officers for economics, russia, eurasia, both functional and regional. everything we do it on and avon and in her agency basis so they come from the agencies as well as outside government. there are deputies that almost all come from a wide variety of intelligence agencies. i've got to deputy national intelligence officers from the nypd and the fbi, secret service so it is an interagency operation. the big change that i was asked as the vice chair years ago shows how slow i am to rise but the big change those days we get almost exclusively strategic intelligence. now with the national intelligence estimates those tended to be rather exhaustive and sometimes exhausting often to take a strategic view to set issues in the context and show connections among the issues and that dell is the paramount mission that i care most about the big change now is that we are very much involved in the current intelligence support. we provide the intelligence support for deputies and the principals committee meeting in the mean for main forei

a growing number of experts, including research group eurasia believe she'll be impeached by late april or early may. and the steps following an impeachment are still unclear. what is clear the prospect of a change in leadership is seen as a positive for financial markets. that is the catalyst behind the stock market which is up 18% this year making it the best performing global stock market in 2016. the currency and brazilian real has been rallying on hopes that a new government will bring in pro-growth reforms, we're talking about the worst recession in 25 years they are facing right now. >> it is interesting because if you just knew the worsening details of the political situation you would look at the market performance and say what's going on, is this all aepgs that she will be ousted? even as this is dragged on their economy has gone from bad to much, much worse. >> it's -- impeachment is a contrarian indicator, you buy when there's blood in the street. when they are throwing out the leadership in the country there's blood in the streets. assuming we have a commodity rally, you'll

organized like stathe state department regionally and there are officers for economics, for russia, eurasia europe, functional and regional. everything we do is done on an interagency basis and the national intelligence officers come from the various intelligence agencies as well as from outside government. their deputies there are deputies that come from a wide variety of intelligence agencies. i've got deputy national intelligence officers from nypd, from the fbi, from the secret service so it's very much an interagency operation. the big change, as tom said, i was virus chairman many long years ago. shows how slow i am to rise from vice chairman to chairman, but the big change in those days we did almost exclusively strategic intelligence. those tended to be rather exhaustive and sometimes exholocauexhauf exhausting looks at major chunks of intelligence and trying to take a strategic view. show connections among issues and that's still our paramount issue, what i care most about. the big change is we're very much involved in current intelligence support. we provide the intelligence suppo

washington post," david ignatius and former assistant secretary for defense for russia, ukraine and eurasiabestowed on you where donald trump mentioned his name and richard haass has to explain that he was not running donald trump's foreign policy team. foreign policy is your bailiwick but you've seen a lot from donald trump. you've been talking about it with us for a long time. there is a working class revolt inside the republican party. the establishment has lost control of reagan's party. >> the trump rage is real, it keeps growing, focusing on trade issues and cultural issues. >> are we seeing the same thing in europe? >> i think we are. i think europeans are frightened about an influx of migrants. they see wars unending at their borders. there's a lot of similarity. i would note one thing about the republican party right now. with rubio's decline there is no republican left in the field who has the traditional gop line on defense. >> there is no establishment lane. >> there's no establishment lane and in terms is he for a safe zone. does he want more u.s. troops in there training, coac

. >>> joining us now on the squawk news line ian bremer president and founder of the eurasia group. you look what's happening around the globe. how does the situation in brussels today change where you see things headed in the european union and around the world at large? >> well the impacts, the market impacts are overwhelming in europe and across europe a few i would point to. one the deal signed between germany, the eu and the turks to try to provide some aid for turkey to keep the refugees there but also would provide deliberalization for turks to get into europe was controversial. much harder to get that implemented across european countries now that we've seen these brussels bombing. june 23 you have a refrern dum in britain on in or out of europe. this is more supportive of the out forces being a part of europe and what's happening across europe only less attractive and more of a motive for the average brit. much more supportive for fringe parties like deutscheland in german elections. more for the front nationale and extremist groups across europe. then finally speaking merk