well worth having and ones that we should pursue generally with countries in eurasia and not simply in the us/china conflict but it is a general issue. >> why don't i like strategic stability. i like strategic stability. >> it doesn't like you. i just think the term and definition of the term is so elastic that it makes it hard for us to focus on the kind of discussions that i want to have with china. make no mistake, when they write the history of the 20th century it will be about the struggle against fascism and communism from the american perspective at least. the history of the united states in the 21 students century it would be how well we manage china's rise to global prominence and whether we are able to do that without war. overall, broadest term stability is a hugely important subject, the nuclear part of it is a relatively small -- and talk about the nuclear thing because i don't wanted to become a big element, the management of relations, and labeling strategic stability like labeling discussions is not usual. it is not useful to say a transparency discussion. a believe

ian bremmer of eurasia group will join us. look at ag zero world. ♪ york,rom london and new francine lacqua and tom keene, we welcome you all. michael mckee is looking at everything but amazon. michael: it does come back to amazon. let's look at target and staples , both reporting today and both getting hammered. if you take a look at the stock chart, staples in white losing ground because particularly smaller businesses stopped buying stuff from them and buying stuff instead online. buy theirer was, biggest competitor office depot but they cannot do that. they have to go back to the drawing board. target losing ground by the disposable fashion folks and online buying. do not look for a lot of information from them about their earnings, but look of wet the next strategy's will be -- of what their next strategies will be. they have done pretty well until recently and this moved to amazon. what they are trying to do is focus on the big companies selling to them, close stores, cut back on some of their merchandise, and try to ref

one of the things that is interesting and in eurasia -- interesting in eurasia, we are talking aboutopter money. a sharpere has been rise in interest rates and we keep pushing the day of reckoning back, that the temptation is you get rates too low for too long you get over borrowing. they are inheriting most of this because it is begging into the dollar. tom: thank you so much. themis is with ubs. we will look at the equity market, much more of the american equity market. what a time to speak with brian belski on the blue chips just tobelski-like perfection. it is a gorgeous new york. it is donald trump's new york and hillary clinton's. ♪ francine: i am francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. a little bit later we have alibaba so let's talk about the chinese consumer. alibaba will post earnings a little bit later on in the s&p chief analyst paul gruenwald is still with us. when you look at alibaba, it is almost a proxy from the chinese economy, meeting the expectations for further growth are slowing down a bit but overall year on year, still growing quite a lot. how much do

well worth having and one that i think we should pursue generally with countries in eurasia and not simply in the u.s.-china context. but it is a general issue. >> so why don't i like strategic stability. i like strategic stability. >> it just doesn't like you. >> what? >> i'm just kidding. >> i just think that the term and the definition of the term is so elastic that it makes it hard for us to focus on the kind of discussions that i want to have with china. make no mistake, when they write the history of the 20th century, the definitive history, it will be about the struggle against fascism and communism from the american perspective at least. when they write the history of the united states in the 21st century, it will be about how well we managed china's rise to global prominence, and whether we were able to do that without war. overall broadest terms, stability is a hugely important subject. and the nuclear part of it is a relatively small element. but i'm a nuclear guy and i want to talk about the nuclear thing because i don't want it to become a big element and make the manag

joining us from washington to discuss is the director of latin america from the eurasia group.ank you for joining us. 36have had this pretty crazy or 24 hours where we saw impeachment moving forward and reverse and reverse, and it looks like it is moving forward. now it looks like it's going to happen. to you see any further monkeywrench is being thrown into this, or does look like it is on? >> i'd say we have seen a pretty crazy six months to say the least, but i think the impeachment is on track. we don't see any major surprises, although we are talking about brazil. that we think overall we do think the impeachment will happen tomorrow, and with that, the following day, they'll be able to begin to take brazil. scarlet: the government is appealing once again to the supreme court. you expect them to intervene in the process? >> it's a possibility, that the court has traditionally refrained from what they see as intervening in other branches of power. they set up the rules earlier this year, pretty clearly. now my educated guess is they'll avoid weighing in again. i think this

this is what they are doing, we gold.o sell we talked earlier with the director of the eurasia was talkinghether production would falter. yes it will, but probably not to the zero level, which some people said could be the scenario in a worse case situation. it raises the question of how much social unrest this generates, because venezuela has cut off to save on cash. >> it is that blood testing startup company over technology. --t company is being sued of sued over claims of false advertising, unfair business practices, and -- by resident in arizona who is doing a class action suit. >> meantime we are taking you to beverly hills california, where erik schatzker has a sit down with bill gross. bill: if i told you the truth i erik: --l you again, tell you again. your it is made, 2016, global bond fund is up 2%. he is outperforming pimco total total lineperforming return, looks like you still got it. bill: thank you. it was a short period of time, to prove you've got it i think as you all know, it takes more than a year or two. satisfied with the results, it doesn't sound like a lot of money

alix: very passionate eurasia group's on bloomberg surveillance. fiveng powerful forces driving any quality today. -- driving inequality today. that is next. ♪ scarlet: it is time for a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. cisco sees skills and earnings beating the current quarter, thanks to avenue from acquisitions that is easing tepid demand.is chairs are climbing in after-hours trading. cisco is shifting its offerings towards software-based networking, security and, management product. alix: sales and sheer force are extending in trading. thanks to strong spending from large corporate customers for its productivity software. salesforce is benefiting from the crowd. -- the cloud. isrlet: southwest airlines raising its dividends and buying back more shares. the ceo says the board approved a 33% increase in dividends to $.10 per quarter and a 2 billion buyback plan. delta and united have made similar announcements in recent months. that is the bloomberg business flash. alix: "what'd you miss?" the most important chart in the

it is in the context of the proliferation of intermediate range ballistic missiles in eurasia. they're violation of the treaty, which is a total bilateral ban on inf raged systems between 5,000 kilometers that are ground based. we believe the russians have tested, very capable that has been flown to those ranges banned by the treaty. this is a problem, you know, that the russians say themselves is across the area. it's been put about as the public rational why they proceeded down this road. president putin himself spoke about this when he went to crimea in august of 2014. he talked about the general problem of intermediate range missile proliferation as being a problem that the russians are grappling with. i say yes we're grappling with a similar problem. it's a limited intermediate range missile threat. we have chosen to respond to that limited threat from iran, from north korea. by deploying limited missile defenses. full stop. we are not eager to get into developing offensive capabilities that first of all would not comply with the ban on systems that we have with the russia

tom: how does a combined eurasia team react to the calculations, pro and con?of brexit. to me, it is comical. is it? [laughter] this righthave said up to many publications. we see a 40% risk of brexit. a 60% chance of remain. our base case is remain. risk that material the wrong thing happens. that brexit happens because of that anger and how upset people are, as you commented on. john: it is interesting. if you look at the betting shops, which i do occasionally, they are saying 20% and i agree with callum. i think it is higher. francine: how do you model a trump presidency? callum: that would certainly cause huge volatility. it would be good news for stocks in terms of fiscal easing. i think would be catastrophic news for the dollar. tom: very good. gentlemen, thank you so much for this briefing. a historic day. we really ignore the data this morning. there is data moving without question. the lead is oil pulling back. the news of $50 per barrel this week pulled back a little bit. we will take $49.02. west texas intermediate a little bit higher than brent at t

it's a particular pleasure now that he's the managing director of the eurasia group and also a nonresident scholar here at carnegie. it's a pleasure to welcome back a wonderful colleague and friend over a number of years. he's gone on to make enormous contributions to u.s. national security policy, not only at the white house but at the arms control and disarmament agency and most recently at the department of energy. finally, it really is a pleasure to welcome a wonderful carnegie colleague, whose article in arms control today last december on chinese nuclear thinking really is the centerpiece for today's discussion for our panel and whose work over a number of years really does embody the very best that the carnegie endowment as a global institution has to offer the world. so once again, thank you, all, for coming today. i hope you'll enjoy me in offering a warm welcome to our panelist. [ applause ] >> well, thank you very much, everybody. thank you, bill, for that very warm introduction. my name is evan. i'm going to be moderating the session today. these issues of chinese nuclear doctr