with me now is ian bremmer of eurasia group. he recently returned from the region. back to this program. >> thank you, charlie, glad to see you. >> rose: set out for me where you think this is. what did it accomplish and what are the risks? >> what it accomplished by far it's the most significant foreign policy move that's been louded both domestically and internationally for trump since he became president, right. the entire foreign policy establishment in the united states, man of dhfs "never trump--" republican and democrat-- now coming out full-support. also australia, new zealand, saudi arabia, israel, the u.k., canada-- these are folks who have all been unnerved to various degrees about the trump administration coming in, and they're now all together saying, "we glad he did this." so that's clearly a plus. >> rose: the possible exceptions are china, russia, syria-- and i'm not sure who else. and obviously, iran. >> year, that's basically it, russia being the big one because people expected and trump expected he was going to be able to develop a better relation

that was ian bremerfrom the eurasia group.are investigating a blaze at a care home in hertfordshire in which two people died. emergency crews were called to the newgrange care home in cheshunt early this morning. a number of people have been taken to hospital. our correspondent andy moore has more details. firefighters were called here at 5.50am this morning and they were confronted by a fierce blaze, raging in the roof space from end to end of this fairly modern, substantial building. there are 35 residents here, they are elderly and infirm. many of them are wheelchair users. firefighters had to manhandle many of those residents onto their shoulders and then down on ladders. the residents were brought out into the street here, some of them in chairs, they were in their nightclothes and they were covered in blankets and clothing, anything to keep them warm. residents say it was a fantastic response by the emergency services. a big fire incident close to my house. the rescue team are near. it's been challenging this morning, tr

i have been at eurasia group for 12 years, navigating this deal. i will say at the get go that i have never, in my 12 years at the firm, had a sense in which the political establishments are so uneasy on the terrain at which they are stepping on. we see this on multiple levels. obviously, we had one moment, which was we had a very favorable global economic environment, leading up to the global financial crisis in 2008, 2009. we had tremendous uncertainty over the sanctity of the eurozone project, and a lot of our clients were asking us, and we were on the hook to anticipate whether or not we were headed toward a breakup of the eurozone. our view at the time was markets underestimated the appreciation of political elites, and political elites were running the game. but what we are seeing here today is something entirely different. i would say, to answer your softball question -- are we seeing something new, something different in terms of underlying voter sentiment? i think the answer is unequivocally yes. we have very good public opinion data. we h

with me ian bremmer of eurasia group. he recently returned from the region. welcome back to this program. >> thank you, charlie. good to see you. >> rose: set out for me where you think this is, what did it accomplish and what are the risks? >> what it accomplished by far, it's the most significant foreign policy move that's been lauded both domestically and internationally for trump since he became president, right? i mean, the entire foreign policy establishment to the united states, many of which was never trump, both democrat and republican coming out full-throated support for what trump did, also allies around the world, australia, new zealand, saudi arabia, israel, germany, the u.k., canada, these are folks that have all been unnerved in various degrees with things about the trump administration coming in and they're now all together saying we're glad he did this so that's clearly a plus. >> rose: the possible exceptions, china, russia, syria. >> and obviously iran. yeah, that's basically it. so russia being the big one because it and trump expected he

us is angela stent, former russia and eurasia intelligence officer and teaches at georgetown university, the director of eurasian studies. what did you make of secretary of state tillerson's statement? guest: i think it is accurate. it is probably worse than before the cold war ended. i think relations as mr. putin said it got worse after the election of president trump because of all the revelations about what russia was doing in our election. there is very little trust. we have had a meeting with the 2 sides to resume. host: more importantly, as far syria is concerned, what does it mean going forward? and what are other issues we have to tackle? guest: the russians have come back and joined in the agreement so the pentagon the russian ministry of defense do not plan on shooting each other in the sky. it is more problematic, will we work with russia on the transition from president assad? mr. tillerson's said we do not think it is russia's future. we are not at the stage where we can sit down with the russians and talk about syria going forward. it is a preliminary, get to know you mee

vice president pence overseas eurasia. house speaker paul ryan in europe.n cirilli outside of the white house there. a beautiful shot. later, president trump is hosting italy's prime minister at the white house. the two will hold a joint news conference and that is scheduled for 3:50 p.m. eastern. you can watch the news conference right here on bloomberg television. stabilizing oil is on the signs and opec could extend outlook. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ mark: live from london and new york, i'm mark barton. vonnie: and i'm funny thing. this is "bloomberg markets." --e for futures and fork is time for futures and focus. oil is in focus after a plunge. joining us is tom. we will begin with oil. why this reversal. stockpiles are there doubt. there is a potential for extending that opec agreed and promising but imagine that oil would plummet if they lower? tom: good morning, vonnie. oil is way overvalued at these levels. there is way too much supply and not enough demand. if you throw in that we have more fuel efficiency now, we don't have much more of a demand com

joining me now from new york via webcam is ian bremmer, the president of the eurasia group.claims to be the worlds largest political risk consultancy. thank you talking to us. us russia relations are clearly very strained at the moment, how do you reckon those countries are getting on? when trump became president there was a strong intention on the part of his administration to effect a strategic partnership with russia and get relations off the back foot, rarely had been at the end of the obama administration that failed well before the attacks and syria because of the investigation is ongoing with the fbi and concerns about collusion and that led to the ousting of the national security adviser, michael flynn, but with these attacks against the syrian air base, you can say that those relations are in freefall and while rex tillerson is still going to moscow to meet with the russians, it is clear that the russians are deeply upset and they have retaliated already in terms of sending military hardware to the region and ripping up the hotline that was the conflicting the air f

. ♪ .harlie: ian bremmer is here he is the president of the eurasia group. for ae conversation about the middle east and other foreign policy developments of the day. welcome. day, where the president is reacting to syria before he goes to palm beach to talk to the other most powerful person in the world come a big day for foreign policy. ian: by far the most important day for global issues since trump has been elected president. charlie: start with china and moved to syria. ian: china, what can you say? it is the single most important meeting that trump has had since being elected. the orientation trump has had towards china on the campaign and since he has been elected has been pretty strong and hawkish rhetoric. some of those things he has walked back. , he walked back, although there is talk about selling arms to the taiwanese. back, bute has walked north korea, south china sea, and trade, he has not walked back one bit, and the people around him are not hawks or doubts, they are either pretty hawkish or quite hawkish. idea that trump will have a good me

joining me to talk about this, ian bremmer, the president of eurasia group. katty kay, anchor for bbc news america. i am thrilled have both of them back on this program. i will begin with you. what can this president look at thisreign policy and say, is a clear victory, win, achievement? think the biggest achievement is that he has learned what he did not know. he has learned the world is more complicated than the policies he campaigned on. that is true partly domestically but much more true when it comes to the national stage. he sat down with president xi and realize the north korea situation was more complicated than he realized that he was prepared to admit it was a learning curve. that has influenced much of what he has done and said on the foreign policy stage. he came in with a clear nationalist, populist, america-first ideal, and he shifted on that. he shifted to one of more engagement, more realization he has to engage with america's allies to get results for america. rather than one specific thing he has done, i would say that is the most important

ian bremmer, eurasia group founder and president. jonathan: we want to bring in the amherst pierpont global strategist. great to have you. let's start with geopolitics. america first. that we were informed there would be fewer foreign policy entanglements, and then this. what do you make of it? >> reality often gets in the way of the best laid plans, and i think this is the situation where the administration came in, wanted to focus on america first, wanted to focus on job development, etc., and international developments got in the way. now there is a reassessment going on as to what the priorities are going to be, how they are going to respond. whoooks like steve bannon, was really the driver of america first, is a little bit on the outs right now, a reality of international pressure. jonathan: so you genuinely sense a real strategic shift within the white house? think the white house had hopes and expectations as to how they could drive the process going forward. every incoming administration has that. i think that's what we are d

join me katty kay of the bbc and ian bremmer of eurasia group. >> i think he's still embarrassing himself and making statement don't comport with reality. >> obviously. >> but look, when he came in place and you spoke about it the expectation was domestic policy would be hard to move the needle much but foreign policy could be very volatile. there's been learning as katty suggested. there's no crises so far but the substantive issues he's handle in a way whether you like or not you can say it's been competent. >> charlie: we conclude with the director james ponsoldt with his film "the circle" starring emma watson and tom hanks. >> technology sort of can give a. to who we are for better or worse. i've heard people say it can amplify your humanity. whatever that means, and the aspirational qualities the terms people use connectedness. it's a pseudospiritual bent where it's us trying to make better versions of ourselves through technology. >> charlie: the foreign policy and "the circle." funding for "charlie rose" is provided by the following: >> and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia ne

he's a senior member of the house foreign affairs committee and ranking member of the europe, eurasia good to have you here. >> thanks to be here. >> should the president have consulted congress? >> the acts of mr. assad, there needs to be a response. so the question is what is the appropriate response. had he come to congress first, we would know what the plan is because a response is not a strategy. you whether it was the appropriate thing to do or not because i don't know what the strategy is. the president just a week ago had a different plan or at least what he said how -- what he was talking about. so i do believe that this -- it is important for the president now to come to congress with what that strategy is and if there's any additional use of military force, then it should be first voted on and debated by members of the united states congress. >> shepard: should bashar al-assad launch another sarin gas attack on his own people this evening killing women and babies, the president should go to congress before retaliating? >> i wish he came before. i believe i had the opportuni

>>a the eurasia group, mostly and usually not here. traveling around. let's go first. you heard the congressman and what i thought was striking, he didn't give president trump leeway on this. he seems concerned. >> on turkey, yes. at the same time we heard very consistently from trump that when the united states is telling other countries the way to run their internal affairs, we should look at ourselves first. this is for all of the flip flopping from trump and on this issue, he has been consistent. even though the state department is whacking them and hitting the turks on the referendum, he is not. his view is going to be why am i going to make that statement? let's assume there are not voting irregularities just like in brexit and like in this country. >> this urban split is real everywhere in the western world and even turkey is sort of a cross roads. >> germany is the exception. in germany, you have the globalization. everywhere else this is what you are seeing. you are not seeing it in china and india. the places that see themselves as being major beneficiaries a

inathan: coming up, we bring ian bremmer, eurasia group founder. risk rally in europe. you are watching bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: we will hear from ecb president mario draghi on thursday. the path to monetary policy organization may be quicker than most economists anticipated. revise guidance as early as june. wieting,s is steven citi private bank, and james athey averaging asset management. exiting thisof program, when do you anticipate those tweaks? how important will the political backdrop be? >> that is a good point. i don't expect the next ecb meeting this week to have a change on policy and forward guidance. it gets interesting from june on. how much they are cognizant of the parliamentary elections in france is difficult to say, but between june and september, i expect them to start steering is towardtapering -- us tapering policy. jonathan: the markets this morning reacting. the prudent action would be to wait for the second round. when you look at inflation data, that is what ecb is going to react to. are they going to continue to wait? steven: i think the ecb t

. >> host: it was striking to see eurasia in the middle of this argument, most of the arguments in this book are from the 18, first part of the 20th century in europe but suddenly gerard, a frenchman who wound up teaching at stanford and died early last year contributed to key ideas, the idea of rivalry, can you explain that? >> it's really a notion that lit up the whole african for me quite himself he did not extend his theory of limited tribal read to geopolitics or history. but this notion that what we desire is immediate through the desire of other people, that is something that made me think about much of modern history as essentially an incredibly intense game of emulation. where small minorities achieve extraordinary amounts of power and wealth and cultural sophistication. and then the rest want to catch up, they want to do things for themselves. and this process then spreads around the world in a kind of escalated fashion. >>. >> host: it has the next essential bases which you bring up powerfully. it's something that's more than material want that people are after. it's the bein

with me now is ian bremmer of eurasia group. he recently returned from the region.me back to this program. set out for me where you think this is. what did it accomplish? and what are the risks? ian: what it accomplished by far, it is the most significant policy move lauded domestically and internationally for trump since he became president. the entire foreign-policy establishment in the united states, many of which were never-trump, now coming out in full-throated support for what trump did. also, allies around the world. australia, new zealand, saudi arabia, australia, germany, the u.k., canada. these are folks that have been unnerved with things about the trump administration coming in. and they are now altogether saying we are glad you did this. that is clearly a plus. caroline: the possible exceptions are china, russia, syria, and iran. ian: that is basically it. russia being the big one because trump expected he would be able to develop a better relationship with russia. that is well off the table now. the potential for real confrontation between those two is

. >> rose: we continue with the same questions with ian bremmer, president of eurasia group.

. >> ian brem certificate here, is he as you know the president of the eurasia group. he recently traveled to the middle east. he joins me now for a conversation about that region and other foreign policy developments of the day. i'm pleased to have him back at this table. welcome. >> charlie. >> rose: this particular day where the president reacting to syria, before he goes to palm beach to talk to the other most powerful person in the world. a big day for foreign policy. >> by far the most important day for global issues since trump's been elected president. >> rose: start with china briefly and then move to syria. you just got back from the middle east. >> well, china, what can you say. this is the single most important meeting that trump has had since he has been elected. the orientation that trump has had towards china both on the campaign and since he's been elected has been pretty strong and hawkish rhetoric. some of those things he has walked back, tie want he has walked back some what, though there is still a lot of talk about selling a lot more arms to the ti

branch funneled money and guns to all ,anner of foreign governments entangling alliances all over eurasia engaged in covert activities including assassinations, and henceforth, presidents increasingly made executive agreements rather than subject tohich were senate ratification. americans acquiesced in those de the foreigns of all and defense policy clauses of their constitution, americans acquiesced in all of this because they were now persuaded god was calling their nation to in anhe free world existential struggle against totalitarian atheism. those were the years when presidents assured americans in so many words that they now possess to, they the american people, now possess the technology, the power, the wealth, the expertise to into poverty, conquer disease, liberate nations, establish , after all ite was axiomatic that almighty god does not give missions to phets or whole nations without the powers to fulfill them. read to truman's inaugural address. read kennedys inaugural address. amazing rhetoric, over the top. well, what about the churches? mainstream churches fretted for a fe

i really want to thank the eurasia center for today's program which is entitled "the state of human rightsn putin's russia." as you know, the atlantic council has been a vigorous voice on subjects from disinformation to ukraine, the scale and scope of aggression in ukraine into the illegal annexation of crimea. today's form is particularly timely. russia has we have three keynote speakers who will be up first. all of whom are making a difference in their own way, they are strong outspoken advocates for freedom and basic human rights in russia. i am going to introduce the first three, and then we will be having a panel afterwards which will be moderated by dr. alina polyakova from the atlantic council. we are going to be hearing -- i'm going to introduce all three. we're going to be hearing first from maryland's senior senator ben cardin, ranking member of the senate foreign relations committee, who, just this week, condemned the arrest of hundreds of peaceful demonstrators in moscow. he is the cosponsor of the global human rights accountability act, which empowers the united states to deny

. >> the founding president of euro as eurasia group.olicy establishment and pretty much the entire constellation of the american all lies of getting on board with the action by president trump. we've seen it from the canadians, germans, saudis. we've seen it. as a one off attack you're not going to see significant push-off by the syrians. it feels good and i think there's a reason to do it. let's keep in mind if the united states had not responded to these chemical attacks by the syrian regime, no one else was going to. that's a good reason to do it. it's also a good reason not to do it. there's a good reason why obama agonized over not taking the decision. that's precisely because now that trump is saying what he wasn't saying before that assad -- the assad regime needs a quick transition out of power, that's no way for the u.s. to do that. taking out one air base isn't going do that. the russians and iranians are the ones with the military force. >> do you think it was a mistake. >> if it's just the one off strike and they don't conti

one belt know, china's with the road strategy tries to dominate eurasia and exploit resources for futureconomic gains. such designs have placed to the country at odds with the united states but also nations like japan and india. currently there budget is four times greater than those of india. india is an ambitious and growing country. china and india have increasing competing interests of state on the comment. the continent. democracy and shares values with us in the united states. how do you view india's role in the future, in the end of pacific region and what we should be doing to strengthen that relationship and if there's anything you'd like to see expanded so we can work more closely with our friends in india? >> i have made india a formal line of effort at the civic -- atd because i think it the pacific command. we share democratic values with india. we are the world's two largest democracies. we share cultural values with indian americans who live and work and lead in our country and i think in the space we are in a very good place and getting better. india is purchasing a lot o

we are joined by the eurasia group head of global research from singapore. with us. 10 days away. the markets are nervous. they are worried we could have a rcon standoff. could anything happen, or are we jumping at shadows? >> do not forget the number of favorites that were defeated in the primaries. melenchon is coming from nowhere. the base case is macron will defeat le pen. the odds are narrowing. it could be close. francine: what do people vote on? the french voter goes to the polls and thinks of what? the economy, reforms, europe, the euro? >> the french economy seems to be doing ok at the moment. immigrants, and also the potential spillover to the whole of europe from brexit. number of issues. some positive, some less so for voters. that is the issue of, do you vote for the establishment or more radical options? a lot of uncertainty and .onfusion certainly, the nonestablishment, antiestablishment, candidates seem to be doing better in this election. bigcine: looking at this topic of conversation, are we spending enough time talking about what happens n

. >> david, you guys advise that the -- advise the eurasia group hedge funds and what are you tellingabout the market risk? we saw a slightly defensive trade on friday when the news broke. the risk premium in oil seemed to go up. what's the risk from here? >> yeah, we don't think that the risk premium on oil is going to stay very high. i mean, the fact of the matter is that there are very little likelihood this spreads beyond syria into the actual producing countries. i think that president putin is really upset with assad now because assad's use of chemical weapons last week spoiled the context for the visit by secretary of state tillerson to moscow. it's now going to be putin on the defensive. i still think that there are prospects for a deal here and i do believe that the administration's top priority will remain i.s. the question is, you know, what happens here after raqqah? how invested will the united states be in actually trying to have an actual political transition in syria? it looked like the trump administration was steering away from that. i think they're going to get pull

we'll have ian bremmer, the founder and president of eurasia group, with us here to sort through it.arkets? the markets aren't reacting -- is it because they don't care or don't know what to make of it? we will talk to ian bremmer and many more. david: thank you. david west, looking forward to that. time now for the single best chart, back with carl weinberg. #btv6722. parlorhere is this car game with the conversation of rate hikes and unwinding the balance sheet. how tense is that argument right now? how easy for the fed is it to walk and chew gum, to scale back the balance sheet? >> continue to normalize both by raising rates, showing the balance sheet. we look for two more hikes and deposit the end of the year. , in a coordinated program the last thing the fed wants to do was to cause financial market distress. it is clearly intending to baby feed the market with a little bit at a time. --ncine: sorry david: how much have you adjusted your forecast going forward, in light of the more robust conversations? >> i think the balance sheet is coming sooner than we had anticipated, but i

tom: the eurasia group has been really straightforward about the advantages le pen has the election.. tell me where the marginal vote for madame le pen will come from so mr. brenner is a right on the call for her victory. think markets are right in the expecting that le pen will not win but they may also be underestimating that risk. it also has to do with this fact that all of her opponents are distributed as radical or untested, which is really the case for macron, of course, the favorite. that is the risk you. tom: outside of paris, it's a mystery. do i have that right? outside of paris, it's a mystery? federico: like a mentioned, the fact that macron does it really have a party behind him is also associated with the fact that he was working in the financial sector and mostly associated with the previous government could . a growing number of endorsements from the left could worry him. i think the first round will be the real challenge for him. guy: let's talk about where the markets are positioned in advance of what is going to happen next. since 2012.s higher is that the wrong p

belt, one road initiative which aims to transform the economic and strategic geography of much of eurasia. china's leaders have begun to articulate their vision for a new eurasian order, a system of infrastructure networks, regional free trade areas, new rules written in beijing, and mechanisms for political consultation all with china at the center and the u.s. pushed to the periphery is not out of there -- if not out of the region altogether. u.s. alliances would be dissolved or drained of their significance. maritime democracies would be divided from one another and relatively weak and china would be surrounded on the continent by friendly and subservient authoritarian regimes. the u.s.th century, if try to make the world safe for democracy in the 21st, china is trying to make the world safe for authoritarianism or at least is trying to make asia safe for continued communist party rule. they are trained to coordinate all the instruments a policy to achieve these ends. military domain, building above , andntional capabilities modernizing nuclear forces in order to deter possible u.s. an

seeks to secure china's control over its continental maritime interests with the hopes of dominating eurasia and exsploploiting resources. such designs place the country at odds with the united states and nations like japan and india. currently, china's economy budget is four times greater than those of india. i'll talk about india and its importance to us. however,india is an ambitious and growing country. they have competing interests at stake in the continent. india has expressed concerns and perceived goals in the region. given the fact that india is a democracy, shares many values with us here in the united states. i'd be curious as to how you view india's role in the future in the endo pacific region, and what we should be doing to strengthen that relationship, and if there's anything in particular that you would like to see expanded so that we can work more closely with our friends in india. >> i've madeind india a formal e of effort because i believe it represents a tremendous opportunity for the united states at large and pacom in particular. we share democratic values with india, w

seeks to secure its control over the continental maritime interests with the hopes of dominating eurasia. current china's economy budget is four times greater than those of india. i want to talk a little bit about india and its importance to us. however, india is ambitious and a growing country both in population and in its economy. china and india naturally have competing interests at stake on the continent and the joint maritime domain. india has expressed concerns over china's recent expansion into the south china sea and perceived strategic goals in our region, also given the fact that india is a democracy, certainly shares many values with us here in the united states. i would be curious as to how you view india's role in the future in the india pacific regional, and what we should be doing to strengthen that relationship, and if there's anything in particular that you would like to see expanded so we can work more closely with our friends in india. >> thanks, senator. i made india a formal line of effort at the pacific command, because i believe it presents a tremendous opportunity

prior to that he served as the national intelligence officer for russia and eurasia at the u.s. national intelligence council from 2010 to 2014. earlier, he held research appointments at the international institute for strategic studies and the rand corporation. he has served on the national security council staff and the state department. he taught at georgetown university and george washington university and published widely. welcome, dr. rumor. clint watts, is a robert fox fellow for the foreign policy research institute. and a senior fellow at the center for cyber and homeland security at george washington university. he's a consultant and researcher, modeling and forecasting threat actor behavior and developing countermeasures for disrupting, defeating, state and non-state actors. as a consultant clint designs and implements customized training and research programs for the military, intelligence, law enforcement organizations at the federal, state and local levels. clint served as a united states army infantry officer, an fbi agent on a joint terrorism task force. as the e