what do you foresee that eurasia group? -- at eurasia group? meredith: a great deal of unease.eon is focused consolidation of chinese power over hong kong and this is not missed on taiwan but for beijing, with such a move, they have really risked a lessening of support by those on taiwan for close ties with china. it is quite interesting if you see the way the kmt has been shifting approach domestically, to get space between itself and mainland china. term, there will be space given to the kmt and taiwan as beijing focuses on trying to further consolidate the position it is holding in hong kong. tom: we are far beyond nixon and kissinger, even farther beyond shouldhanghai, how a joe biden administration or second term trump administration support taiwan? meredith: starting with preparing a relationship with china where you have a communications channel and you are able to provide your views of what would be best for stability across the taiwan strait. that is the way you are able to help partners in taiwan elevate their message in beijing. without that active channel, and to my

for russia eurasia.usan thorton is currently senior fellow at yale law school and former assistant secretary for east asia and pacific department of a state. all three have had deep experiences, practitioners and thought leaders in their field and i think they have a unique capacity to encroach russia, china and u.s. policy with just the right balance with altitude on one hand and granular on the other. they will speak for no more than five minutes and we will do a moderated round of conversation and then answer your questions. we will have a live q&a "after words" to ask a question, use the live chat feature in youtu youtube, e-mail us at press office at cie p .org or tweet us at carnegie and dowell using # carnegie connects. with that, evan, the virtual space is over to you. >> thank you. pleasure to be with you. ... february 1972 visit to beijing. that was a point in time when the u.s. and china were fighting a proxy war in vietnam, and china were still just crawling out of the mess history of the cul

we welcome eurasia group president and founder ian bremmer. take us back before this cataclysmic year. what did you see coming up? why is this your different from four years ago were eight years ago? incrediblyuntry is divided and we have a president that has been making every political noise that the election is going to be rigged against him, dirty tricks campaign. 2016 that there was russian interference that president obama at the time did not do much about. we have not been able to handle having a free and fair election without external intervention, even when both sides were perfectly well-prepared to play by the rules. we now have a situation before the pandemic hit where that is much more problematic, where issues of saying there is voter fraud happening, impersonations, you should not be doing vote by mail. all of the presidents -- all of the measures for a president who is well behind in the polls but has the ability to shape the outcomes of the way the election is put together. in the world's largest economy, the idea that the elect

you control the world and others would say if you control the rim lands of eurasia so europe over to the countries around the maritime regions you control the seat and what the belt and road does is try to do both at the same time plus the added digital so road. on top of that yeah so it's a very interesting thing i think it's a huge challenge because the west doesn't really have an answer to it the united states is really been part of that the e.u. keeps waffling around whether they have a connectivity strategy doesn't doesn't you know head up and i think that's kind of the the why it's not the cold war anymore this is a very different kind of challenge that we have to engage in on its merits it's not something of the past as something very much in the future. i want to come back to the chinese people so many of them study abroad so many of them travel abroad and stays they see what life in the west is like which is obviously not fight. so they want what is one of their deepest profoundest political meetings i am not going to sit here and speak on behalf of 1400000000 people of what

we welcome eurasia group president and founder ian bremmer.re this cataclysmic year. what did you see coming up? why is this your different from four years ago were eight years ago? incrediblyuntry is divided and we have a president that has been making every political noise that the election is going to be rigged against him, dirty tricks campaign. 2016 that there was russian interference that president obama at the time did not do much about.

up next, meredith sumter of eurasia group.new york city this morning, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures out after a eak,-day winning str adding some weight, up about thorough .3% on this thursday morning. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the world has now gone over 15 million coronavirus cases. the u.s., brazil, and india account for nearly half of all infections. texas reported the most ever in one day. in florida, governor ron desantis says schools may delay reopening if they need to protect against the risk of the virus. in the u.k., a pair of lawmakers says boris johnson had no plan for the pandemic. the economic response was "rushed and reactive," despite it being identified as a top risk for years. the fight over the chinese consulate in houston shows that hardliners now have the upper hand in the trump administration. advisors have pushed u.s. policy towa

for russia-eurasia. and susan thornton is currently senior fellow at yale law school and former assistant secretary for east asia and pacific affairs at the department of state. all three have had deep experiences in their field and i think they have a unique capacity to approach russia, china and u.s. policy with just the right altitudeith the medic on one hand and granular on the other hand. each will speak for five minutes. ofs is a moderated round conversation and then onto questions. we will have a live q&a afterwards so to you -- to ask a question, used the life feature at youtube or email us or tweet us at carnegie and doubt using # carnegie connects. evan, the virtual spaces to you. >> thanks and it's a pleasure to be with you. i will start with the u.s.-china relationship. this is a relationship that's basically in freefall and after about 25 years in this business, i'm trouble -- i'm having trouble seeing the floor. the core is really a change in the relationship between economics and security.

eugene rumer director of carnegie's russia and eurasia program is a former national intelligence officer for russia eurasia and susan thornton is currently senior fellow at yale law school and former assistant secretary for east asia. .. i feature can you do, e-mail us at press office or tweet us at carnegie and dow using the # carnegie connect. so having the virtual space, is over to you. >> thank you darren and it is a pleasure to be with you. i just want to start of the u.s. china relationship. i will get it had one of the company from my vantage point, the relationship is basically in freefall. after about 25 years, i'm having trouble saying before. i think the corvette is really a change in the relationship between economic and security and i say that because as you go back to the modern inception of the u.s. china relationship. richard nixon, february 1972. paging. there was a point in time when the u.s. and china were fighting a boxy work inside it was still climbing out of the mass hysteria culture revolution. so from the very inception of the relationship. they had military diff

well for more on this let's speak to job of rahman who is the managing director for europe at the eurasia group he also worked at the european commission's that rectory general for economic and financial affairs he joins us from london via skype sir thank you so much for joining us here on al-jazeera so the talks are still going on in brussels we can expect them presumably to go on for quite some time we know the sticking points of the size of the fund than and governance of it as well where do you think the breakthrough if any will will occur. i think the signs of moved a bit closer together on the following european council president sharma show think was quite clear in private he's not going to table a proposal on monday unless he feels there's a consensus emerging and he's now done this evening the new fund is still 750000000000 although there's a small proportion of grants that would not be 400000000000 from 500 previously and the share would increase from 252350 1000000000 so that moves in the direction of the frugal for so what has now been table is now a discussion among evaders t

does have the talk about that and a lot more tonight i'm joined by ian bremmer he's president of eurasia group and media is one of the world's leading wrist assessors he joins me from new york city tonight in it's good to have you back on the day so let me ask you he won big today who won or who lost big today and was. well you know you already made the point in the in your opening segment there this is a win for trump i would argue that what we're calling the technology cold war between the u.s. and china has probably been the biggest success in foreign policy that the trump administration has had in 4 years this was not being taken seriously by previous administrations china has made it very clear that they want a war old dominating 5 g. system and ai more broadly under president xi jinping and the united states does not want to see that space they've made it clear to american allies that they need so follow the united states and a western effort at 5 g. or else there will be consequences and they've also made it clear to the chinese government they intend to impose sanctions financial

economic strategy for greater eurasia and in london we're joined by alexander me curacy is a writer on legal affairs as well as editor in chief of the duran dot com all right gentlemen crossed out rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i was appreciate it ok let's go to glenn 1st there we have president erewhon of turkey announcing that one of the most important if not the most important church in the history of christianity will be converted into what's going on here what is the importance of that church to. the political ambitions that say of the president of turkey what does it mean to christians all around the world in 2020 now go ahead paul. well it's one of the key religious buildings and christianity so but he did it or how did history and christianity but also for the muslims again it was it built into 6 centuries it was a cathedral and this lasted for almost a 1000 years she'll be in easter christianity's all for the orthodox christians until the amounts conquered. because of the nobility in 4053 and they are converted it into a mosque now under other

university of southeastern norway as well as author of russia's geo economic strategy for greater eurasia and in london we're joined by how this enemy curacy is a writer on legal affairs as well as editor in chief of the duran dot com all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i was appreciated ok let's go to glenn 1st there we have president and i want to turkey announcing that one of the most important if not the most important church in the history of christianity will be converted into what's going on here what is the importance of that church to. the political ambitions of say of the president of turkey what does it mean to christians all around the world in 2020 now go ahead . well it's one of the key religious buildings in christianity so but he did it or how did history and christianity but also for the muslims again it was a built in the 6th century cathedral and this lasted for almost a 1000 years he believed in easter christianity's or for the hour for the.

university of southeastern norway as well as author of russia's geo economic strategy for greater eurasia and in london we're joined by alexander me curacy is a writer on legal affairs as well as editor in chief of the duran dot com all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i was appreciated ok let's go to glenn 1st there we have president erewhon of turkey announcing that one of the most important if not the most.

ian bremmer is founder and president of eurasia group.g on almost every front that matters between the two countries whether it is hong kong or taiwan, the south china sea, treatment of uighurs, diplomatic closure and is of consulates, throwing journalists out from both countries, technology, cold war, trade, intellectual property, that is a pretty long list not to mention the fact that the united states blames the chinese for the so—called wuhan flu as secretary pompeo, trump and others have spoken about it. it is also accelerating that deterioration, it is broadly accepted between both democrats and republicans — there is almost no one you can find in washington who think we should have a softer reset of policy with the chinese and furthermore, increasingly, american allies around the world have their own set of issues with mainland china, so as bad as this year has been for president trump and, of course, he is behind in the polls right now compared tojoe biden, it is a lot worse for the chinese president. let's talk about him briefly.

let's bring in our panel in london we have andrew fox all he's the director of the russia and eurasia studies center at the henry jackson society in moscow dimitri babich a political analyst at the news media company of 70 and in washington d.c. we have nina yank of its she's a disinfo mason fellow at the wilsons. and author of the book how to lose the information war russia fake news and the future of conflict i want to welcome you all to the show let's begin in london with andrew folks all i read the report almost every single paragraph is quite damning about the british government and its complacency and just simple lack of interest when it came to tackling the russian threat they seemingly were outmaneuvered outgunned and outplayed almost all the time is this a threat that the british government simply didn't think was serious. we're taught to disagree really with what you just said the successive british government and i think that's an important point and more worth making early successive british governments have demonstrated short sightedness and naivety seemingly where the th

let's bring in our panel in london we have andrew fox or he's the director of the russia and eurasia studies center at the henry turks and society in moscow dimitri babich a political analyst at the news media company 70 and in washington d.c. we have nina yank of it's she's a disinfo mation fellow at the wilsons. her and author of the book how to lose the information war russia fake news and the future of conflict i want to welcome you all to the show let's begin in london with andrew folks all i read the reports almost every single paragraph is quite damning about the british government and its complacency and just simple lack of interest when it came to tackling the russian threat they seemingly were outmaneuvered outgunned and outplayed almost all the time is this a threat that the british government simply didn't think was serious were thought to disagree really with what you just said the successive british government and i think that's an important point and one worth making early successive british governments have demonstrated short sightedness and naivety seemingly where th

thought that's what the eurasia needs in the india we would potentially seeing the culpability of across the sea wall supported by russia and came in both already heavily involved in syria and libya in conflicts do you think that's a possibility or is it at the moment something that they would possibly stand back from and try and find a peaceful way to resolve this current inflammation of tensions between armenia and azerbaijan. i personally you know i don't think that. this case discussions are going to degenerate to the point of an international conflict. for an international conflict that requires. a lot of chromosomes. various peace the willingness of turkey to get in holding the gulf leak before a ship can get involved 'd in the cold bleak then there is you only nearby and if things go poorly for us there will be just that we are meeting the end of president you have my. team and i believe in this current clash that beat these that can be observed and that can be. there it seems to be complete that the level of crime and ruling the country. should they grow the bites if there are on

failing to agree a price to buy it's from russia we are asked the pena is a fellow at the russia and eurasia program at chatham house the british foreign affairs same time he says this is part of a wider attempt to hold on to power by look. actually not so many people on balor believe that these people came to belarus to destabilize many people in belarus i jailed on the freight charges and previously blocks north or several times used for simple terrorists attacks as a tool to surprise them a graphic activists during the election campaigns so what most people believe is that this mess the wrists were going to do that middle east all africa through balor is because of the problems with connections caused by the pandemic so presently i do not see much point for russia to into fragments of this presidential election and to send 10 messages here we can imagine that gramley become the measure of what graham and swarms to see as a result of the selection that belarus will destroy links with the as that well last will introduce sanctions against dollars that bill or sims society will be in depress

in the case and are both currently in jail that way or as the peña is a fellow at the russia and eurasiaprogram a chance in house which is a british foreign affairs think tank he says this is part of a wider term to hold on to power by looking. actually not so many people in belarus believe that this poll came to belarus to destabilize many people in belarus i jailed on the freight charges and previously below sneath ortiz several times he used possible terrorist attacks as a tool to suppress them a graphic activists during the election campaigns so what most people believe if there's this mass there it's we're going to do that middle east or africa through ballerinas because of the problems with connections caused by the pandemic so presently i do not see much point for russia to interfere into this presidential election and to send 10 messages here we can imagine that gramley become the measure of what graham it's wants to see as a result of this election that belarus will destroy links with the as that well last winter do sanctions against dollars that bill are civil society will be i

my brother is a senior fellow at atlantic council's eurasia center he joins us now from istanbul good to have you with us what do you think is going to be the outcome of this trial . you know thank you for having me and laura. i don't want to prejudge what you do so proceeding is going to be but it seems pretty clear the evidence is really strong in the turkish government had them as your last report indicated leaking the information about the murder of democracy or get back in 2018 have that not happened nobody would know about this so the turkish government feels i think extremely confident that there will be convictions but the outcome is going to be inconclusive in terms of justice because a the suspects are not here in turkey being the person that even the cia believes with moderate to strong competent order to murder the crown prince and solomon isn't isn't being judged and in fact the world have kind of gone back to business as usual with him so now the most consequential outcome might be who knows that there could be interpol red notices issued against those who are convicted

vonnie: coming up next, we are speaking with someone from the eurasia group.will be speaking about amlo's visit to the united states. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: you are watching bloomberg markets. let's get a quick check on the markets. we have been bouncing around a little bit, started out on a down note but now we are in the next. the s&p is down a quarter percent. the dow is down .6% because we have airlines lower, after new york and stated quarantine bans on three more states that have seen their rates top 10%. united airlines down 6%. really getting affected at newark. tomorrow, we will have an interview with the cfo of twitter. the leadership putting out the idea that we could get an edit b utton, but for that, the whole country would have to wear a mask. canada?ask compliant in it is not federally mandated here. it seems like each individual state is judging how bad the spread has gotten in their state before the local leaders will come out and say you must wear a mask. greg: very much the same here in canada. the problems in ontario, where we are loc

seriously, he was told that he would be no longer be deployable in his area of expertise which is, eurasiasia and that was the position that he had in the white house as an expert on ukraine which of course, led to his involvement in the impeachment inquiry. >> and he was, indeed, up for a promotion. is that right? >> that's right. normally, this would -- this would have been the process and it wouldn't -- it would have proceeded without any obstacle, but here's the remarkable thing and his lawyer, david pressman says that there was white house interest in his promotion, getting status updates on it. interference, they were concerned and his lawyers said it was absurd and frightening to imagine the white house getting involved in promotions at this level. the dod's response and the pentagon's response to this according to military officials who spoke to vindman and his team is that they were considering options such as sending his promotion on in a list of one, in other words, not with other promotions so that it wouldn't hold up the others, but i should note this finally, lieutenant colon

foreign policy, where we have seen weaponization, a few will, of lgbt rights in russia, sometimes in eurasia, whether it is georgia, ukraine, countries moving towards the west, towards the european union. how do you think of a foreign policy issue when you see all of these foreign-policy tools, weapons? mr. biegun: what i will say, maybe to flippantly, we can thank flattering put in in one respect, because we can tell we are on the right side of history by the position he takes in juxtaposition to ours. any of us who follow and work on russian issues day-to-day know that this is just one element of an overall authoritarian and increasingly repressive society in russia, and one that we should push back on all fronts. let me say thank you to my dear and thankid kramer, him for those kind words. david and i walked down this path. he has been a great role model for international affairs. his integrity got russia. and he has done so with leadership over many years. >> you talked a little bit about u.s. foreign policy, how to equate some of our values to the commitments -- criminalization, stigma

you evening to those of joining us in europe and russia and across eurasia. thank you for joining me. we are delighted to have all of you here today. we're tki

good evening to those of you joining us in russia and across eurasia. i am the executive vice president at the council. we are delighted to have you all of us -- to have all of you with us. the aftermath of putin's constitutional referendum. i could not be more delighted to be joined by three outstanding voices. ,he former u.s. ambassador these three remarkable individuals are remarkable thinkers, incredible actors and some of the most important strategists on the issues facing russia's future. we welcome them here to the conversation today. we are so proud to count them among our friends. we have so much respect for their courage and the principles for which they bring their positions to this debate. russian president vladimir putin has been a fixture of global politics for two decades. vote,the symbolic july 1 any respect him to remain a fixture throughout this decade and until 2036 perhaps. is that the only possible outcome or even the most likely ? it is one of the most -- one of the hardest to countries by the pandemic. it is embroiled in multiple

the west coast and good evening to those of you who are joining us in europe and russia and across eurasia. thank you for joining the atlantic council. i'm the executive vice president at the council we are delighted to be having you with us to talk about our event today. the aftermath of vladimir putin's constitutional referendum and i'm joined by three outstanding voices to address this critical moment. ambassador,.s. these three remarkable individuals are remarkable thinkers, incredible actors and some of the most important strategists on the issues facing russia's future. it's with utmost respect that we welcome them here to the conversation today and we are proud to count them among our friends who -- and have so much respect for their courage and the principles with which they bring their positions to this heated debate. aadimir putin has been fixture of global politics for two decades now. after the symbolic july one vote, many expected him to remain a fixture until 2036. is that the only possible outcome or even the most likely? it's one of the hardest hit countries by the covid-19

good on the west coast, and good evening to those of you joining us in europe and russia and across eurasia. i am damon wilson the executive vice president at the council and we are delighted to have all of you with us to talk about our vent, russia's new czar, the aftermath of vladimir putin's constitutional addendum. delighted to be joined by three voices. these three remarkable individuals are remarkable thinkers, incredible actors, and some of the most important strategists on the issues facing russia's future. it is with utmost respect we welcome them to the conversation today. we are so proud to count them among our friends and have so much respect for their courage and the principles with which they bring their principles to the debate. been ar putin has fixture of global politics for two decades now. after the symbolic july 1 vote on constitutional changes, many expect them to remain a fixture until 2036, perhaps. is that the only possible out, or even the most likely? russia is at a critical juncture. it is one of the hardest hit countries by the covid-19 pandemic. haveussian peopl

you evening to those of joining us in europe and russia and across eurasia. thank you for joining me. we are delighted to have all of you here today. we're talking about the aftermath of putin's constitutional referendum. i could not be more delighted. these three remarkable individuals are remarkable thinkers, incredible actors, and some of the most important strategists. we are so proud. russian president bladder mirror -- flood putin has been a fixture of global politics for decades now. remain int him to 2030 six. is that the only possible outcome or even the most likely? it's one of the hardest hit ,ountries by the pandemic embroiled in foreign conflicts. as the russian people have repeatedly voiced their displeasure. imagine a future, a future democratic russia perhaps? we are going to turn to hear from our remarkable group. have the director of the institute for international studies of the institute for international studies and was a policymaker in the obama administration. nvidia joins us from the moscow liberal foundation. it is a pleasure to welco

is the view that the dungeons of the dragons she makes an appearance and runs around the steps of eurasia in a magical hut to this. around by two chicken legs. so this idea of self-propelled vehicles is a very old technological longing and we are just now making it possible to this we are finally fulfilling the dream at the same time that they are achieving the full organization of the planet. it's a statistic sort of trend. by the end of the 21st century will be about 100% urban. it's just a phenomenal phase and creating tremendous challenges for nobody and making solutions have served for a while like single passenger automobiles obsolete. the driverless or so of driving vehicles one of the things i deal with early on in the book are these words we use and what they mean and what they are trying to achieve. basically [inaudible] or a visually impaired person or i think for a lot of stressed out parents trying to get kids to all these different activities it's like here is a car two shuttles were kids around since you don't have to do it. they were testing the waters here to see if this

joined foreather conley, center strategic and international studies senior vice president, for europe, eurasiaand the arctic. great to have you. walk us through the early reaction you have seen to what could be a good -- a big stimulus package, half of which looks like it will be grants relative to some low interest loans. heather: yeah, this has been an incredible four days of a lot of drama amongst 27 eu leaders. i think for me, they will get there. it has just been incredibly painful. and it is going to be -- howting to see if the it will implant -- impact the momentum asian of the recovery fund. clearly for me, the take away is germany and france, the two largest eu economies, can no longer when they agree move the organization. smallerly see the countries, when they are in coalition, countries that are frugal, they can bend the will of france and germany. this is why president macron was so angry throughout this entire conversation. they no longer can do this simply by themselves. what we are going to see is a smaller package, more heavily tilting to loans than previously. it bends to the

ian bremmer is the president of the eurasia group and g zero media.how europe has goten this thing seemingly under control compared to the exploding nun of cases in the u.s. new cases yesterday germany, 642, uk 580, japan 454, france 350. united states 62,879. yes, we're a far bigger country but even if you added up all the countries in europe we don't get close to the u.s. >> that's true. stephanie, if you look at deaths and you look at per capita deaths, it's a lot closer, but even here, the united states now looks worse and is on a radically worse trajectory than the eu is a whole and more specifically than germany, the l.a. largest economy in europe and probably the most appropriate country for comparison with the united states, and there are a couple of obvious reasons. one, we are maximally divided around the issue in the u.s. even though americans wear masks at about the same level as most europeans do, we politicized the response, and so who you believe in the united states is more about what your politics is than it's about what dr. fauci is