a good time to speak with meredith sumpter of eurasia group. please stay with us in westminster. this is bloomberg. ♪

head of research from eurasia group. looking at wall street, after a solid day yesterday.t's it for today's show i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. [♪] want to freshen your home without using heavy, overwhelming scents? try febreze one. it eliminates odors with no heavy perfumes, so you can feel good about using it in your home. for a light, natural-smelling freshness, try febreze one. >>> it is 5:00 a.m. here here is your top five at 5:00. a pledthera of big names reporting. another twist in the wework saga as softbank looks to take over the company. boris johnson trying to get a deal and what mark zuckerberg says the company is doing now to try to fight false information ahead

still with us is ian bremmer of the eurasia group. what significance does this have?needed 45 to make it in the first round. clearly, there was still a lot of opposition to the idea that cristina kirchner is on the ticket. she is the vice president. massive corruption. they tossed her out precisely because the economy did very badly under her administration. about what's happening across south america right now, it is anti-corruption is driving so much of the popular mood. if sheld not have won were on the top of the ticket, she understood that. but the fact that she is there makes people uncomfortable. david: interesting you say it is anticorruption as opposed to pro-worker. what is happening in chile right now, that is middle class. originallyd it was because of an increase in the bus fare. ian: it is a question of fairness, a sense -- we have heard this in the u.s. -- that the system is rigged against the average chilean. you are not doing enough for us. not that we are starving but there is a social contract. we thought our kids would be better off, and now we don

what will your eurasia group look for?g the toughest local crisis of his career, the crisis is just beyond his border in syria has been good for him in terms of being able to deflect from his dropping popularity at home. key source of criticism that i think will make the u.s.-turkey relationship even more troubled going forward. despite the commitment at top levels between erdogan and trump to maintain stable ties, clues that we have seen last week with dissension that we are hearing about even among senate republicans who can no longer defend the move by the u.s. president which has given accompli.fait erdogan got what he wanted with the latest agreement he got with the u.s. president at the expense of the u.s. expansion -- the u.s. position in the region. we do not think should the cease-fire hold, we don't think that the u.s. congress will move forward with much more controversial sanctions that have been placed on the table that could have impacted sovereign debt. but the u.s. turkey relationship will be a problem goin

british proposals as simply unworkable and i did see some interesting analysis though from the eurasia group this morning and the suggestion was that this was all part of the prime ministerial strategy to have him draw having self dragged kicking and screaming towards asking for an extension and thereby burnish his own credentials as a breck's it prime minister forced into asking for an extension and thereby he complies with the law but when a general election comes around he capitalizes on the political power if you fact if you like of him having tried but failed to deliver bracks it's a coincidence $17400000.00 that many books is like to quote so from the prime minister's point of view won't harm him according to the eurasia group and some analysts to actually be defeated in this way by the courts thank you for that poll brennan outside the houses of parliament in london thank you very much for that update us president donald trump may be forced to release 8 years of his tax returns after a judge rejected his challenge against their release judge victim that arrow said he cannot endorse tr

joining us on the line, head of eurasia group's middle east and north africa research team.sident minutes ago saying he will do more than sanctions if turkey asked inhumanely. what know at this point would classify as inhumane? just vaguethese are terms to evade some of the pressure he is facing both from congress and from the foreign policy establishment around the withdrawal of support for the kurdish forces in syria, but it's not clear to me how that is a meaningful threat to turkey at this point. it is very ambiguous. shery: u.s. official saying he has seen kurdish officials mobilizing for battle. what are the chances this will end up being a humanitarian disaster? >> i think a lot of kurdish residents along the border area with turkey have begun to move toward the south, other kurdish areas where there may be some u.s. troops -- excuse me, kurdish forces moving north to try to launch some form of resistance. it is not clear that the kurds can confront this in an effective way. it is a limited incursion. i think that is the implicit agreement with trump that there would

david: we are talking with robert kaplan of the eurasia group.a a challenge or opportunity for western europe? specifically, germany. it is basically an export economy. if china is growing, they will buy more things. germany exports a fair amount to china. is that a challenge or opportunity? robert: both. especially germany, don't want to move that close to china as the regime goes from soft and light authoritarianism to a harder edge, suffocating form of authoritarianism. but they have no option. this is where the money is. this is where the growth is. even as we are in a period where the u.s. appears less and less dependable. david: as you talk about suffocation, mike pence was giving a speech in washington. one of the things he said was it looks like the nba was a wholly owned subsidiary with beijing. did they overplay their hand because of that one general managers tweet? it sent a message to companies that you have to go along with what china wants, including we don't want you tweeting things. robert: i believe it overplayed its hand. on the

joining us for insight is daniel koerner, managing director at the eurasia group. good to speak with you. election toandez's lose? >> it is a foregone conclusion. both are unreliable but the result in a primary show that he is very strong because there is an enormous this content with the way the economy is heading, it has gotten worse since august. people do not trust macros anymore and are looking for someone to improve their economic conditions but also to take them back to a period where most voters but like the economy was doing better, not necessarily investors. scarlet: the polls are so unreliable --amanda: in terms of what is happening in the economy, the odds of restructuring of the debt for this country are high, 67% being priced in. whomever is leader, what is the first order of business to reassure investors? whomever wins will inherit a difficult situation. as we speak, pressures on the currency continue, the central has been drawing on reserves, keeping some level of stability to help macri. argentina has no market access, some securities, so i would

laura: a brief time ago i discussed all of this with ian bremmer, president of the eurasia group. thanks so much for joining us. what does the standoff between the nba and china say about the price of doing business in china for u.s. brands? ian: it ra going up. the chinese are stronger than they used to be, they are a much bigger economy, so the benefits of getting business right are significant, but they are much more rigid and much less flexible, particularly on anything that they think involves matters of national security and political stability. hong kong in particular, rig in the crosshairs, and the nba stepped all over it. laura: by playing hardball with the nba and canceling the streaming of their preseason games, what kind of a signal of -- are the chinese trying to send to other u.s. companies, too? ian: that you are going to he to handle your employees, you are going to have to tell them in advance what is and is not acceptable. remember, we are talking about a single member of the nba, the general manager of the houston rockets, tweeting a message that simply showed s

but as the europe managing director for the risk research and consulting firm eurasia group he believes the extensional they granted leaders may hold off on announcing their ration. this does not require a negotiation with the e.u. ultimately the extension decision is now a decision that the european council e.u. heads of state will make among themselves so boris was very careful in the language he used he did not say he would not send a letter he said he would not negotiate an extension while he does not need to negotiate because that's an internal matter for the e.u. $27.00 and i think that's a decision that they will come to probably in the middle of next week once they have seen how developments play out in the 1st few days of early next week monday and tuesday does know that boris johnson wants to deliver bracks it by the 31st of october he said he'd rather be dead in a ditch than request another extension so this is hardly going to come as a surprise in the elisa in paris or in the chancellor in berlin i think they understand politically boris johnson does not want an extension bu

concluded phase one and papered it well jeffrey wright is a united states policy analyst at the eurasia group he things one of the reasons behind trump's decision is to get some relief for farmers and to boost the u.s. economy. i think the pieces of this deal that are fairly concrete are the chinese agricultural purchases which trump says they will step up above their current levels and cancellation of the looming tariff increase which was due to go into place next week beyond that there's a lot left undone around intellectual property a sectoral opening for financial services firms in china that has been rumored and pulled back a number of times and a lot of other issues where the real substance is still needs to be ironed out the chinese have already for the last 2 weeks or so their purchases of particularly of soybeans have been at much higher levels than they were for the bulk of the summer and so that's a big relief to farmers and if this deal holds i think those purchases will will continue or probably go up as well the pieces that are left undone are primarily in intellectual property

with us from eurasia group, ian bremmer.atching bloomberg "surveillance." bayer warning a significant increase in the number of suing over roundup. 18,000 lawsuits have been filed. they lost three lawsuits claiming the weedkiller causes cancer. outlook forng its the third time this year. cancer treatments are paying off. drugs for multiple sclerosis and blood clotting continue to perform. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: a lot of breaking news from the e.u., this is an e.u. diplomat briefing our reporters, saying it is too late to get a formal brexit. a possibleise about second summit ahead of the deadline. the spokesperson for boris johnson saying he wants to make progress but it seems the sticking point is at westminster. maria tadeo inis brussels. how much frustration can you sense that they think they have a deal but it seems like parliament may vote against it? maria: that is right, and this is the core of the matter. the headlines he referred to really sum up the debate. the europeans believe they are cl

jeffrey wright is a united states policy analyst at the eurasia group and he thinks one of the reasons behind trans decision is to get some relief for u.s. farmers and to boost the country's economy. i think the pieces of this deal that are fairly concrete are the chinese agricultural purchases which trump says they will step up above their current levels and the cancellation of the looming tariff increase which was due to go into place next week beyond that there's a lot left undone around intellectual property a sectoral opening for financial services firms in china that has been rumored and pulled back a number of times and a lot of other issues where the real substance is still needs to be ironed out the chinese have already for the last 2 weeks or so their purchases of particularly of soybeans have been at much higher levels than they were for the bulk of the summer and so that's a big relief to farmers and if this deal holds i think those purchases will will continue or probably go up as well the pieces that are left undone are primarily in intellectual property the enforcement r

thoughts now of rahman who is the europe managing director for the risk research and consulting firm eurasia group you please the extension will be granted but e.u. leaders may hold off on announcing the duration. this does not require a negotiation with the e.u. ultimately the extension decision is now a decision that the european council e.u. heads of state will make among themselves so boris was very careful in the language he used he did not say he would not send a letter he said he would not negotiate an extension while he does not need to negotiate because that's an internal matter for the e.u. $27.00 and i think that's a decision that they will come to probably in the middle of next week once they have seen how developments play out in the 1st few days of early next week monday and tuesday does know that boris johnson wants to deliver bracks it by the 31st of october he said he'd rather be dead in a ditch than request another extension so this is hardly going to come as a surprise in the elisa in paris or in the chancellor in berlin i think they understand politically boris johnson does not

concluded phase one and papered it well jeffrey rice is a united states policy analyst at the eurasia group he thinks one of the reasons behind trump's decision is to get some relief for u.s. farmers and boost the country's economy. i think the pieces of this deal that are fairly concrete are the chinese agricultural purchases which trump says they will step up above their current levels and cancellation of the looming tariff increase which was due to go into place next week beyond that there's a lot left undone around intellectual property a sectoral opening for financial services firms in china that has been rumored and pulled back a number of times and a lot of other issues where the real substance is still needs to be ironed out the chinese have already for the last 2 weeks or so their purchases of particularly of soybeans have been at much higher levels than they were for the bulk of the summer and so that's a big relief to farmers and if this deal holds i think those purchases will will continue or probably go up as well the pieces that are left undone are primarily in intellectual pr

withy, we will be speaking you of the eurasia group. ♪ from the couldn't be prouders to the wait did-ners. everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile let's you design your own data. now you can share it between lines. mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. it's a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money. save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $250 back when you buy an eligible phone. call, click, or visit a store today. jonathan: from new york city, for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield starts right now. coming up, investors shaking up weak data, hoping to resolve lingering macro issues, as broader credit for zane's more cracks are showing in leverage loans. looking for clues beyond the next rate cut. we begin with the big issue. debating whether we have seen the worst of it. >> the u.s. is in a good spot. >> manufacturing is weak globally. >>

we will talk to a representative of the eurasia group on the u.s.l. ♪ from the couldn't be prouders to the wait did we just win-ners. everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile let's you design your own data. now you can share it between lines. mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. it's a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money.l. plus get $250 back when you buy an eligible phone. call, click, or visit a store today. >> big oil bottles climate change. ceo's say reducing admission is not just their job. we speak to the ceo of q equinor. to woo investors who were disillusioned by energy stocks and buybacks. a $2.6 billion historic blackout. pg&e cuts power to have a billion people in california. all to insulate itself from wildfire risk.

kathleen: we will discuss the elections in canada with eurasia group managing director robert johnston. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. kathleen: i'm kathleen -- kathleen hays in new york. you are watching "daybreak: australia." hays in new york. you are watching "daybreak: australia." the s&p 500 pushed back the 3000 mark on monday as u.s. stocks jumped on positive trade signals. let's bring in management founder and chief investment officer, cam. welcome to the show. great to have you. in an all-time00 high at 3025, getting in within spitting distance of that. trade, yes, it looks like it the step one deal is starting. is not enough to keep the rally going? kim: i think it really is. it is not just because i am an optimist. if you look at the condition that the economies of the world are in, i think the only thing that has been keeping us down is the u.s.-china trade war. everybody else has been dragged into it, especially europe. as well asia australia. i think if we can begin to repair that risk, the rest of the world's economies can get back to doing

. >> joining us is ian bremer, the president and founder of eurasia group and g-zero media.o have you here. mike pence said that before. he's said that before. and the criticism of the nba, i know it's one that you share and has been out there. but president trump hasn't exactly been a vocal defender of the protesters in hong kong. >> human rights generally has taken a back seat in this administration's foreign policy. trump specifically has said that he's not going to bring up hong kong as long as the trade talks are ongoing. getting that done is something that feels more urgent for him right now with the u.s. economy softening and the impact of the trade deal on the u.s. economy growing. but there's no question pence was out there loud and proud on the uighurs, on nba, on hong kong. it's different than the message you'll be hearing from president trump directly. >> but chastizing the nba, but not having your own boss say anything about china, is that hypocritical? >> pence's point historically has been that these american companies should be more patriotic. and to be fair,

here with me, ian bremmer, the editor at large for "time" and president of the eurasia group.at to see you. so much to get to. put in perspective the impact of this decision by the president. >> well, interesting that nikki haley said turkey is not our friend. they are our nato ally. but people think they're not asked that way. it's more complicated than people say. the americans are withdrawing from an area on the border. >> on the border. >> there will still be lots of american troops on the ground there. it is certainly true that the turks have been looking to take that area so they have a place, clear it out, have a place to actually move a bunch of their refugees, they're hosting millions of syrian refugees right now. erdogan's under a lot of pressure. no question the kurds are going to feel in time and tradition that the americans are again leaving them. and the result will be ultimately that the kurds will start working more closely with the russians. but it will take some time for that to happen. >> and work closely with the russians, the kurds will have to turn and wo

. >> joining to talk more about this is michael, the head of china and northeast asia at the eurasia groupthis is the 13th round of negotiations between the u.s. and china. are we any closer to where we were after the fifth round? y, that is a surprisingl kitty question. we have gone forwards at times and we have gone backwards. what we are looking at right now is will they get to an interim deal. minian talk acall it a deal. both sides of an interest to avoid further escalation. and to try to fidn some kind of landing zone for president trump that would bring further relief to u.s. farmers, not panic financial markets. roader trade deal looks as far away as ever. the more likely scenario is that the u.s. would postpone planned tariff increases. there is one for the 15th of this month. another in mid-december. the most optimistic scenario would be limited tariff relief. thatps around the tariffs went to affect in early september. but i do not think we are going to go below the main, the main body of u.s. tariffs which is 25% on $250 billion, half of u.s. imports from china. hard to see the

you could argue and it has been argued by some analysts i read some interesting analysis by the eurasia group this morning to say that this actually strengthens boris johnson's credentials as a brecht it prime minister for him to have to be dragged effectively kicking and screaming to ask for an extension simply improves his chances at a general election if you can to play the kind of strategy of it's him against the judiciary against parliaments who are all trying to prevent it so from that point of view this court ruling. although this is technically a win for the prime minister he won't do any harm. more than 130 climate change processors have been arrested in a global demonstration that the organizers extinction rebellion say will span 60 cities they started in australia where at least 30 people were arrested in sydney for blocking traffic on a main road near a central train station at the 7 protest serves were arrested in brisbane and for chaining themselves to a bridge and in new zealand capital wellington 30 people were arrested for blocking roads near parliament in berlin people occup

after we've concluded phase one and papered it to fit right as a united states policy analyst the eurasia group but he thinks one of the reasons behind troops decision is to get some relief for us famous and boost the country's economy. i think the pieces of this deal that are fairly concrete are the chinese agricultural purchases which trump says they will step up their current levels and the cancellation of the looming tariff increase which was due to go into place next week beyond that there's a lot left undone around intellectual property a sectoral opening for financial services firms in china that has been rumored and pulled back a number of times and a lot of other issues where the real substance is still needs to be ironed out the chinese have already for the last 2 weeks or so their purchases of particularly of soybeans have been at much higher levels than they were for the bulk of the summer and so that's a big relief to farmers and if this deal holds i think those purchases will will continue or probably go up as well the pieces that are left undone are primarily in electoral propert

you could argue and it has been argued by some analysts i read some interesting analysis by the eurasia group this morning to say that this actually strengthens boris johnson's credentials as a brecht it prime minister for him to have to be dragged effectively kicking and screaming to ask for an extension simply improves his chances at a general election if you can to play the kind of strategy of it's him against the judiciary against parliaments who are all trying to prevent access so from that point of view this court ruling. although it isn't technically a win for the prime minister it certainly won't do him any harm. in kosovo supporters of the self-determination party are celebrating after the opposition party merged with the most votes in sunday's general election with more than 90 percent counted results so the center left party in the lead with 26 percent just ahead of the center light democratic leader of kosovo the snap election was called after the resignation of former prime minister sharon is not. malice made some people will finally have a place to call home they're among at lea

but first, let me introduce you to mujtabah rahman from the eurasia group.llow him on twitter, he is very in tune with what is going on. where do you think we are tonight? we hear that michel barnier has gone into ceu ambassadors, but does he have anything to tell them? i think there is likely to be a positive conclusion to discussions in brussels. the question is timing. draft legal text may be in the small hours this morning, but i think there will be a broader agreement which will be put to the european council on thursday and friday. number of hurdles have appeared through the day. looking at them one by one, the most important, consent for northern ireland. obviously northern ireland does not have a seat at the table, and the good friday agreement dictates that all parties should have a say, so what do you think is going on with that? borisjohnson's do you think is going on with that? boris johnson's original proposal gave de facto at the dup an upfront veto as to whether northern ireland would align to the single market, and then over the medium term,

and asia viewers, eurasia group president will speak brexit soon.om robin hood investors conference. ♪ estors conference. ♪ david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am david westin. welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. on the brief today, kevin cirilli from the white house on the death of big daddy -- al-baghdadi and what it means for president trump. from london, what premised are johnson will do with that brexit extension. kevin, let's start with you. pretty dramatic yesterday morning. i am sure we were all gathered around our televisions. what does it mean for president trump? kevin: for president trump, it means two things. first, from a foreign standpoint, the president declaring victory, saying with the killing of abu bakr that isis is on the retreat. at the chicago chief of police summit, the president also sang another president should have gotten that done. meanwhile, the president has faced increasing criticism with regard to his decision to put

companies this week was difficult for goodwill let's bring in the director of asia practice at the eurasia groupee you let's talk about expectations going into this round of trade talks. it's been up and down, the expectations, tell us where you stand on that. >> well, i don't think we're going to see any breakthroughs, certainly from this round of talks. i don't even think we're going to see a formal agreement on the deal when the talks end but it does seem like we're in the short-term positive in the sense that beijing has reacted to really an inflammatory move that the united states took, with sanctions over technology companies and china's provincial government in the province over the population there so, it's been quite a strong move in the works that have been debated within the u.s and the timing is really notable, right they make this heaard hitting me on the eve the trade talks china did not cancel the trip. talks thus far anecdotally seem to be productive i think short-term positive in the sense of avoiding escalation for the time being but i think there's reason on how it will come o

eredith sumpter is with us from eurasia group.bout what mr. xi would like to message to his people and to people worldwide. francine? francine: torge the other thing we're watching is the latest on the scandal rocking the swiss banking industry. pierre-olivier boue has quit as chief operating officer. aria, what have you learned? >> good morning, francine. credit suisse is in full damage control. the chairman today presented the scandal as a rogue operation by the c.o.o., alongside the global head of security. of course, two men have now resifpblete the chairman with no indication in the investigation that thiam approved any of this. he issued a very public apology saying this is something that never should have happened, and he said this is something they simply do not condone. i have to say, however, the investigation from credit suisse may be over, but the zurich prosecutor has said their investigation continues. we have that story yesterday about that contractor who killed himself last week in connection to this surveillance o